Leans for Friday 12/12/08

[cocknocker]

BookBuster,

The Lakers MUST win by 20 in that game with a line like that.We haven't seen how they respond to revenge games this year. You are on your own on that one. I simply can't bet a team favored by THAT many points.

[jamesrg]

Love the Pistons tonight ck

I gotta think they show up and play a full 48 at home against a bad road team.



Deeeeeeeetroit Baaasketball

[cocknocker]

Get your Pistons plays off right now. They are -6.5, and you can get under 6 by buying a point and making it 5.5!

[Snevens88]

CK, i think you really need to reevaluate that philadelphia pick. ive been tailin u for most of the season and uve been doin great thus far i must say. however, id just like to state that i watched the ENTIRE cavs game the other night, and the only reason the cavs didnt run away with a blowout was because lebron sat out most of the second half. Another key point to make is that andre iguadala (although underrated) is no sure thing for a 75% fgpct and 20pts 10 reb night. I can almost assure you that a Smart cleveland coach will come up with just the plan to stop the one thing that seems to keep the sixers close in most their games. Unless elton brand can step up and actually contribute for once, i think your lookin at another blowout at home for cleveland. Even in your write up i felt like i could sense a little hesistation with that pick perhaps a little uncertainty...just cause u wanna take a quantum leap doesnt mean u gotta waste ur money. go ride a roller coaster

[innovator]

CK i took a hard hit yesterday, could you give me a couple of high chance picks I can possibly cash on? i mean like really great ones. i want to do a little parlay and see if i can come up strong.


thanks dude...i used to parlay alot but now i'm doing straight bets like you said and want to try out 2-3 team parlay.

[Snevens88]

i just dont see why you would even play that bet...i feel as though the cavs should be the only play here and if not i would certainly advise not layin one down on this game

[Dana4U]

89% of the squares are currently on the Cavs ...

[Sloanie29]

CK,

why couldnt ther Rockets beat them by 5 and still beat the 4.5 spread ? why would they have to beat them by 6? im just trying to understand and learn. thanks!

[LUNT101]

CK,

why couldnt ther Rockets beat them by 5 and still beat the 4.5 spread ? why would they have to beat them by 6? im just trying to understand and learn. thanks!

CK believes in the 'key number' which is basically every even number because baskets go by 2. The Rockets could still win by 5 and cover the spread but in theory you play every 2 points. That's why he will always buy a point on an 'oddnumber.5' spread. For example 3.5 to 4.5 or 11.5 to 12.5 to get over the 'key number.'

[Dana4U]

Pistons are -6 at VIP

[maddogmadden86]

hey cap the market wont fall that low due to something they already knew wasnt going to happen they most likely will use some of the TARP money and help those morons out especially since only half of the 800 billion hasnt even been used

[innovator]

GSW at +2 now..is this good?should i take them?

[innovator]

took it

[cocknocker]

I thought about it, for aminute, and I figured that Detroit at home after 3 straight losses means that I don't have to pay any vigorish over -110 to get a spread on a game that I feel will be a blowout. So I am sticking to my guns to have identical plays with the CK Mafia types: So far I have made the following plays so they are set in stone:

New Orleans +7.5 (bought a hook when it was 7)
Detroit-6 ( a perfect spread for this game-the will win by no less than 10)

Still waiting for the Warriors to get back up to 3 or 3.5. 3.5 would be perfect) The Cavs-10.5 are being offered at -105, with a majority of bettors on their side anyway(87%), which means that my book is trying to get value shoppers money on them as well. Of course I am going to take Philly now. I can see through this one. With only 13% of bettors on their side, I refuse to make this wager until the very end or if the line gets up to 11.5. In that case, i will play the Sixers+12.5 promptly. So I am looking for that number (11.5) to pull the trigger. But this line will have to go up with consensus numbers like that. The moneyline is all messed up on this one. -700/+500 is indicative of a 13 point spread.

[maddogmadden86]

plus tehy will just go into chapt 11 and restructure like the airlines did

[Dana4U]

CN - you projecting any more movement in the Hawks game? I'm really liking this one with 85% of the squares sitting with Miami.

[Sloanie29]

CK,

do you recommend playing these will all the same wager?

[cocknocker]

Snevens88,

I guess the best way for me to learn that I was wrong is for you to put your money on the Cavs and make that cheese for us. Nothing wrong with me learning a lesson! Good luck for you tonight. We're all trying to do the same thing. But I wasn't hesitant in my pick. I had the Sixers pegged for this game today as soon as the horn sounded on Wednensday, and I was correct in my projection for this game that the line would be Cleveland-10.5. That means that I did my homework like a good boy!

innovator,

I am waiting to see if I can get them at 3 or 3.5. There is too much money on the Rockets for the line to not shift in their favor. And if it doesn't, then that will tell us all that we need to know about this game.

LUNT101

Why do I feel like I need a bath every time i look at your avatar? Anyway, let's rap about it on my NFL thread...

Dana4U,

Get it, homes!

[Dana4U]

Got another one for you Cocknocker. Look at the Trailblazer game. Portland is coming off back-to-back games, there is reverse line movement in the spread and only 36% of the action on the Clippers. Seems like a perfect time to pick-up LAC. Thoughts?

[africanroller]

Im liking the over for the Celtics tonight. 4 out of the last 5 over for the Green Machine. 4 out of 5 with the other being a push for the Hornets. The last two times these teams met 219 and 204.

189 is looking real good. Any comments on this before I lock it in? You already know I will not bet against the Leprecans

[fiveteamer]

Is T-Mac out?

Line is dropping fast

[MarkHammond]

line dropped to 1.5 but I can still get 3

[LUNT101]

CK, with the GW line at 1.5 now, should I grab it now or wait until closer to game time and hope the line goes back up?

[bhoward13]

CK - earlier this week, I thought I read a post about you keeping a close eye on Orlando/Phx.

Are you still leaning one way or another on this game?

[Sloanie29]

Im in with Det (-5.5) and No (+7.5)..bought a 1/2 pt on both to stay off the key numbers.

[shoebox]

CK any reason why you have not jumped on San Antonio?
I smell a blowout the spurs are back in full form for the most part.
Any reason why you have not looked at this game ck?
Thanks

[Broncos9798]

Hey CK,

Great job on the call to buy a point on Thursday night, even though I bought one for the Saints that still makes us both happy. I will be following your Golden State and Detroit picks tonight. I am going to again stay away from the Celtics, Cavs, and Lakers(although log me in if any of them are down at halftime). I am also always willing to bet against the Timberwolves. The way the Nuggets made them crumble in their third quarter I feel that a healthy Spurs team will be absolutely no match.

Detroit - 6
Spurs - 6.5(Buying .5)
Boston Bruin -165

Good luck tonight all!

[Broncos9798]

ShoeBox!

We are in agreement.....lets cash this buddy!

CK any reason why you have not jumped on San Antonio?
I smell a blowout the spurs are back in full form for the most part.
Any reason why you have not looked at this game ck?
Thanks

[WestsidePete]

I would still think the Heat is the play in that game...3rd road game in 4 days for the Hawks...4th and last road game of their trip and the Heat haven't played in 4 days, they should be rested while the Hawks will be a little tired and ready to go home...

[cocknocker]

bhoward,

I am laying off of Orlando today, and I will take them tomorrow when they play the Jazz. Phoenix will get the cover in this game. It's too easy.

As far as the Warriors are concerned, the line movement is wonderful. All of the money is on Houston, yet the line keeps on dropping! My suggestion is to play the Warriors +2.5 or 3 if your book hasn't caught up yet. I don't know why, but it seems like we are the only people in the free world who know how to make money off of the Warriors and Bucks!

[cocknocker]

shoebox,

It looks too easy, which means that it probably is. I am laying off of San Antonio tonight for that reason.

[LUNT101]

CK, what do you think of this teaser?

Detroit -2
New Orleans +11
Warriors +5.5

1 to win 2.80

[cocknocker]

Good job, WestsidePete,

Let's get some numbers, folks. Too much posturing and not enough numbers. Let's get those search engines running. Bring something to the table that we can spin off of. We need to strengthen the board and get that info, cuzzins! We are nothing without the information. You can kill the books consistently with two pages of strong info per night. Now let's get crackin'!

[cocknocker]

LUNT101,

It would be perfect if you used Boston in your teaser. The rule of thumb is to use the home team in teasers. if you can't use the home team, then exclude them. maybe want to shorten that down to Warriors and Pistons only, then bet the Hornets straight.

[africanroller]

Broncos where you get that Bruins pick If your an NHL guy I have also locked Panthers/Flames under.

Also liking Blackhawks ML and the over but havnt pulled the trigger yet.