No Excuses. Let The Picks Talk. NBA 2013 Picks and Discussion

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  • 500forazip
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-18-11
    • 23

    #36
    Portland +10.0
    Comment
    • JayOne
      SBR High Roller
      • 02-18-13
      • 227

      #37
      Originally posted by ABOSSSGAME
      Thoughts on Indiana, OKC, Memphis, and SAS? Sorry for the long list.
      Sorry unfortunately do not have the time to do full write-ups on these games tonight. I think that Indiana and OKC will cover, however I avoid double digit lines unless I have a compelling reason to take them such as an injury or a specific inkling. I Think Memphis is being given too many points tonight and I don't see them covering. Spurs I don't see winning this game tonight, I might be able to get a full writeup for that game done before gametime if I'm home in time.

      Again, these are quick thoughts, I have not delved into statistics for any of these games.
      Comment
      • JayOne
        SBR High Roller
        • 02-18-13
        • 227

        #38
        Originally posted by 500forazip
        Portland +10.0
        I like the portland pick, but Lakers playing inspired for Mr. Buss and a Kobe playoff guarantee.... not something I'm willing to bet against. Got burned by this when I took Celts +7 the other night. Probably a stay away game for me.
        Comment
        • JayOne
          SBR High Roller
          • 02-18-13
          • 227

          #39
          Well sucked that the denver game was the one I went big on. But at least the other 2 came through for me. Indiana and OKC also covered and memphis did not, as I predicted earlier.

          Anyway...

          Today's results
          2/22/13


          Denver -3 (-3.3u)
          Boston -2.5 (+1u)
          Houston -2 (+1u)

          YTD 6-6 (50%) (-2.7u)
          Comment
          • JayOne
            SBR High Roller
            • 02-18-13
            • 227

            #40
            Live bet on Portland, Portland +3 (-115) 1.15u to win 1
            Comment
            • JayOne
              SBR High Roller
              • 02-18-13
              • 227

              #41
              Originally posted by JayOne
              Live bet on Portland, Portland +3 (115) 1.15u to win 1
              don't know what the rules are on counting this in my record come game's end. if anyone does please let me know.

              Thanks
              Comment
              • JayOne
                SBR High Roller
                • 02-18-13
                • 227

                #42
                No one will object to it counting as a loss. So....

                2-2 last night. Feeling a big night tonight. Plays coming in a minute
                Comment
                • JayOne
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 02-18-13
                  • 227

                  #43
                  Tonight's Plays.

                  Rockets -2
                  Cavs -5.5
                  Pacers -4.5
                  Heat -7.5
                  Atlanta +4


                  Big card tonight, All over the public on this saturday. Hope Vegas hasn't baited all of us
                  Comment
                  • Shipcity
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-20-09
                    • 269

                    #44
                    I like all your picks, im on pacers and miami large
                    Comment
                    • JayOne
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 02-18-13
                      • 227

                      #45
                      Great night. 4-1.

                      Rockets -2
                      Cavs -5.5
                      Pacers -4.5
                      Heat -7.5
                      Atlanta +4

                      YTD 10-8 (55.6%) (+0.2u)

                      Tonight's plays coming soon
                      Comment
                      • JayOne
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 02-18-13
                        • 227

                        #46
                        First plays of the night.

                        Golden State -2.5
                        Cavs +12.5
                        Nets +2.5


                        Potentially more to come later. Thanks.
                        Comment
                        • Shipcity
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 10-20-09
                          • 269

                          #47
                          Im on the other side of the nets game. I like the cavs pick. Gsw wolves looked like a toss up to me.
                          Comment
                          • JayOne
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 02-18-13
                            • 227

                            #48
                            Originally posted by Shipcity
                            Im on the other side of the nets game. I like the cavs pick. Gsw wolves looked like a toss up to me.
                            Golden State came out flat, looks like they're starting to get it together now. I appreciate the comments, but this is a game I see Nets pulling out.
                            Comment
                            • Shipcity
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 10-20-09
                              • 269

                              #49
                              Why do you like the Nets if u dont mind me asking?
                              Comment
                              • JayOne
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 02-18-13
                                • 227

                                #50
                                Memphis hasn't seen a playoff caliber team in nearly a month, while Brooklyn has played San Antonio, Indiana, Denver, and Houston all in that time frame, going 2-2 against 4 talented basketball teams. They're at home with a day of rest and play well against defensive minded teams. Plus the fact that Memphis blew out Brooklyn in Memphis earlier in the year and BKN will come out ready for this game. Finally, the line dropped from +3.5 to +2.5 with the public on memphis, I happen to be one of the believers that Vegas knows what they're doing and have been at this a long time.
                                Comment
                                • MikeTizzy
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-09-12
                                  • 1192

                                  #51
                                  jay why are ur units so low? i thought u been at this for over a year. its weak and not very profitable to cap like this. a great night is saw from u is going 4-1 with a gain of less than 1 unit?! cmon dude..
                                  Comment
                                  • JayOne
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 02-18-13
                                    • 227

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by MikeTizzy
                                    jay why are ur units so low? i thought u been at this for over a year. its weak and not very profitable to cap like this. a great night is saw from u is going 4-1 with a gain of less than 1 unit?! cmon dude..
                                    The units are 1.1 unit to win 1 per game unless otherwise noted. The record of 10-8 and Units of +0.2 are since I started this thread. I'm not going to post my record and units gained from this season because I have no credibility if its not tracked. People come in here saying they hit 70-80% I can't just say that I'll prove it with my picks. The record and units posted here are since the all star game
                                    Comment
                                    • lucasdawg
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-19-13
                                      • 3399

                                      #53
                                      any thought on hornets and celtics?
                                      Comment
                                      • MikeTizzy
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-09-12
                                        • 1192

                                        #54
                                        yes POD O/203.5
                                        Sac/NO
                                        Comment
                                        • JayOne
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 02-18-13
                                          • 227

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by lucasdawg
                                          any thought on hornets and celtics?
                                          I really like the Hornets to cover, they play well as a home favorite and Sacramento is plain awful on the road. I think Hornets are a solid pick. I also think the celtics can cover as well, but seems like a stay away game, not enough in favor of the celtics for me to take it. I can embellish on both of these if you would like.
                                          Comment
                                          • MikeTizzy
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-09-12
                                            • 1192

                                            #56
                                            nice jAY! my POD of over 203.5 hit as well as ur Hornets to cover like u said.
                                            Comment
                                            • JayOne
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 02-18-13
                                              • 227

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by MikeTizzy
                                              nice jAY! my POD of over 203.5 hit as well as ur Hornets to cover like u said.
                                              Very nice.
                                              Comment
                                              • JayOne
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 02-18-13
                                                • 227

                                                #58
                                                On OKC tonight.

                                                Adding pick for the day.

                                                Thunder -9
                                                Comment
                                                • MikeTizzy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-09-12
                                                  • 1192

                                                  #59
                                                  nice, i also hav that pick for 1 unit. So we think a like, u can check our my threads i jus started and my record in my page.
                                                  i believe u can be a lot better. but honestly tho, ur record and units gain is not worth the RoI, thats basic investing knowledge. u never want to risk 100% for a gain of 2% , u get the same rate by doing nothign at all. Then when u factor into time as a resource invested, its way bad.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JayOne
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 02-18-13
                                                    • 227

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by MikeTizzy
                                                    nice, i also hav that pick for 1 unit. So we think a like, u can check our my threads i jus started and my record in my page.
                                                    i believe u can be a lot better. but honestly tho, ur record and units gain is not worth the RoI, thats basic investing knowledge. u never want to risk 100% for a gain of 2% , u get the same rate by doing nothign at all. Then when u factor into time as a resource invested, its way bad.
                                                    I'm sorry, I don't think your understanding what I'm doing here, nor do I believe you have acquired much financial literacy. My units are around 5% of my bankroll, not 100%, and I am risking 1.1 unit per play. The +0.2u on the year are because I made a poor decision and played a 3.3u play to win 3u two nights ago that ended up losing, thus there is not a 1 for 1 correlation on my record and my units. This is also only through 18 plays over the course of around 5 days. I have made much more than 0.2 units this season, yet that is only related to my record since I began posting 5 days ago. You will see the units gradually increase as I hit well above 50% of my plays, but this is just 5 days in, and the risk is in units because my unit is probably much different than yours, so you can follow and gamble with a unit that fits your style of play.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JayOne
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 02-18-13
                                                      • 227

                                                      #61
                                                      Wow, Golden State and Brooklyn both lost ATS by 1. Oh well, shit happens.

                                                      11-10 YTD Since 2/18

                                                      one play left tonight.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JayOne
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 02-18-13
                                                        • 227

                                                        #62
                                                        OKC dominated the Bulls.

                                                        Today's Results
                                                        Golden State -2.5
                                                        Cavs +12.5
                                                        Nets +2.5
                                                        Thunder -9

                                                        2-2 night

                                                        YTD 12-10 (54.5%)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JayOne
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 02-18-13
                                                          • 227

                                                          #63
                                                          Tonight 2/25

                                                          Wizards +5.5
                                                          Detroit +4
                                                          Denver -7

                                                          Comment
                                                          • JayOne
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 02-18-13
                                                            • 227

                                                            #64
                                                            Thinking about taking Boston to continue the Monday night fade the public theme
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MikeTizzy
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-09-12
                                                              • 1192

                                                              #65
                                                              what up jay, POD i got is over 216 Lal/Den.
                                                              im pretty sure dogs can win out right tonite like lakers, Wizards and maybe Det at home. The prob is with Bos, is that team is old and its well documented that they dont do well with no rest and traveling to one of the toughest courts in the nba. im stayin away from bos, dont forget Utah beat up OKC very well at Salt lake, been playin hella way lately. They could easily blow out the celtrics tonite and cover. Over 189 i got is the play here sir.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JayOne
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 02-18-13
                                                                • 227

                                                                #66
                                                                Live bet update

                                                                On Boston +5.5
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MikeTizzy
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-09-12
                                                                  • 1192

                                                                  #67
                                                                  we got both again together Jay, pretty sick huh?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JayOne
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 02-18-13
                                                                    • 227

                                                                    #68
                                                                    3-1 Night.

                                                                    Wizards +5.5
                                                                    Detroit +4
                                                                    Denver -7
                                                                    Boston +5.5


                                                                    YTD
                                                                    15-11 (57.7%) (+1.9u)
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JOHON8
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 01-28-10
                                                                      • 7712

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by JayOne
                                                                      3-1 Night.

                                                                      Wizards +5.5
                                                                      Detroit +4
                                                                      Denver -7
                                                                      Boston +5.5


                                                                      YTD
                                                                      15-11 (57.7%) (+2u)
                                                                      Well done. Detroit is a team that needs to be faded consistently for the next little while.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JayOne
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 02-18-13
                                                                        • 227

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by JOHON8
                                                                        Well done. Detroit is a team that needs to be faded consistently for the next little while.
                                                                        I appreciate the drop in and comment from an established community member. I am beginning to agree with Detroit, I've been burned by them quite a few times this season.
                                                                        Comment
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