nba chase 12/13

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-31-13, 12:23 PM

Can you provide overall record for bcd each week? I was looking for something like week one 12-10. Week 2 8-6. Week 3 5-8..etc. trying to figure out how flat betting would do.

I know overall record bcd not counting yesterday is 55-39. Makes profit this season at+1405 if you were flat betting 100 each game. Trying to take this info and break it down each week for those who use bookie.

**John Deere** · 01-31-13, 01:44 PM

Whats wrong with A bets?

**Grinder12000** · 01-31-13, 02:39 PM

Can you provide overall record for bcd each week?

I was hoping to get off easy but I guess not. On it! Overall record W-L? you mean!

**Grinder12000** · 01-31-13, 02:58 PM

Anybody with BetBud - can I put in PAST picks??? Awesome app BTW!

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-31-13, 03:19 PM

I thought doing overall record would be easier then doing exact unit count.

nothing wrong with A bets. i just choose a smaller variance line. if you read past post you can see why i skip A bets. lose only 7 units on a series by skipping A. so a series loss allows me play next 7 series for 2 units and easily recovers series loss.

Thanks again grinder for the hard work. i made new excel sheet yesterday so i can keep track of record here on out.

**samrock67** · 01-31-13, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Anybody with BetBud - can I put in PAST picks??? Awesome app BTW!

I think only for the previous day...I'm going to email them and ask them if they are going to add that kind of feature to the app.

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-31-13, 04:21 PM

B Bet: 344-256 (57,33%)
100 plays per year

C Bet: 166-90 (64,84%)
42.6 plays per year

D Bet: 67-23 (74,44%)
15 plays per year

577 – 369 (60.99%)
Flat betting with reduced juice over past 5 seasons only BCD.
$57,700 (577 x $100)
$38,745 (369 x $105)
$57,700 – $38,745 = $18,955
Profit on average per season ($3,791)

So far less profit on average than chasing, but for those who get stressed out by the C and D b3ets, this is another option you have. Not sure of the variance in flat betting B-C-D, but should be a whole lot less than chasing. Less variance = less profit.

**Huego** · 01-31-13, 04:49 PM

Nice job JMD. With the flatting betting approach, we also have the option of bumping our unit up to 2% or even 2.5% of bankroll.

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-31-13, 06:09 PM

Always looking for newer approaches.. My poker graph was very consistent, so trying to get my sports graph to look like my poker graph lol.

Depending on how much variance there is with flat betting, may even be able to flat bet like 5 units at a time. Than the 1 unit chase will be < 5 unit flat betting in terms of profit each season.

PS
Anyone have thoughts about the GSW vs DAL game today? Dallas has been playing pretty great with the exception of blowing 20 point lead vs POR. Curry is out for GSW, but their other players are coming back off injury. Just looking for a little action today. Maybe put a unit on Dallas.

Thoughts?

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-31-13, 10:06 PM

Dallas went +3 to +2.5 to +4.... Idk why it jumped so high last minute...

**dlunc3** · 01-31-13, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Dallas went +3 to +2.5 to +4.... Idk why it jumped so high last minute...

dirk out

**Grinder12000** · 01-31-13, 10:25 PM

Can you provide overall record for bcd each week?

Nov7th - Nov 10 Week 1 partial
B 1-0

Week 2
B 3-0

Week 3
B 4-3
C 0-2

Week 4 Dec 2 - 8
B 2-4
C 4-1
D 1-1

Week 5
B 2-1
C 1-1
D 1-0

Week 6
B 2-1
D 1-0

Week 7
B 6-1
C 1-0

Week 8
B 0-3
C 1-1
D 0-1

Week9
B 1-3
C 3-1

Week 10
B 2-1
C 1-0
D 1-0

Week 11
B 2-2
C 1-0
D 0-1

Week 12
B 7-4
C 1-2
D 1-0

Week 13 partial
B 3-2
C 1-1
D 1-1

**Huego** · 01-31-13, 10:26 PM

grinder, you're a beast man!

While you're at it, can u pull up how many times I ate rice for dinner last week?

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-31-13, 10:40 PM

Grinder I would give you more points if i could... I'll keep giving you points when I can though. That is exactly what I needed! Everyone give Grinder 2 points for his recent postings.

i am a little confused by some of your postings actually now. Some weeks you have C bet at 1-0, but also have a D bet... If C bet is undefeated why is there a D bet?
Its like this on multiple weeks...

**Grinder12000** · 01-31-13, 10:45 PM

Huego - you had rice twice and saved some in the frig but did not eat it.

Wait - do you want that broken down to white and brown rice? Jasmine? (which I love)

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-31-13, 10:56 PM

Based On Grinders record above these are the numbers I got.
System bets Week by week $100 Flat betting Strategy @ (-105 juice)

Nov7th - Nov 10 Week 1 partial (+$100)
Week 2 (+$300)
Week 3 (-$125)
Week 4 Dec 2 – 8 (+$70)
Week 5 (+$190)
Week 6 (+$195)
Week 7 (+$595)
Week 8 (-$425)
Week9 (-$20)
Week 10 (+$295)
Week 11 (-$15)
Week 12 (+270)
Week 13 partial (+$80)

Total: $1510
Winning Weeks = 9
Losing weeks = 4
Biggest losing week (-$425)
Biggest winning week (+595)

As you can see there is far less variance in flat betting for obvious reasons, but also far less profit. If your unit size is $100, than you would only be up 15 units since Nov. However, worse swing you would take is 4-5 units. Analyzing this further, you could flat bet easily 3-5 units a game. If you have a $100 unit size and flat bet 5 units at a time the math is pretty simple, just multiple these numbers by 5. Now you have ($1,500 x 5) = $7,500. Now you have 75 units of profit flat betting $525 a game.

thanks for all the help grinder. I believe your numbers, but some of them hard for me to grasp with C bets going undefeated and having a D bet same week. I am clearly over looking some thing.

**Asset** · 01-31-13, 11:03 PM

Omfg, Boston fade and we going with the $hit Orlando again. F*ckin...
I think I'm gonna just take the loss or bet against Orlando. I don't think Orlando is gonna win this 1. But damn...what to do? Btw I don't want to scare any1, but did you guys read the head-to-head trend for these 2 teams yet? I know it's just a trend but Orlando hasn't been giving us confidence also so...

**Grinder12000** · 01-31-13, 11:27 PM

Sometimes it takes a while to complete S2 series and so forth. Plus we are looking at overlapping weeks with chases and so forth.

I love the Orlando game. The perfect storm for a back door cover.

**Melda** · 01-31-13, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by Asset

Omfg, Boston fade and we going with the $hit Orlando again. F*ckin...
I think I'm gonna just take the loss or bet against Orlando. I don't think Orlando is gonna win this 1. But damn...what to do? Btw I don't want to scare any1, but did you guys read the head-to-head trend for these 2 teams yet? I know it's just a trend but Orlando hasn't been giving us confidence also so...

Asset- you know how much I hate ORL...you too.. They wanted us to hate them so much that we would bypass this bet so they could win and laugh in our face... ORL has to cover here. Just out of sheer principle.

**miczz14** · 01-31-13, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by Asset

Omfg, Boston fade and we going with the $hit Orlando again. F*ckin...
I think I'm gonna just take the loss or bet against Orlando. I don't think Orlando is gonna win this 1. But damn...what to do? Btw I don't want to scare any1, but did you guys read the head-to-head trend for these 2 teams yet? I know it's just a trend but Orlando hasn't been giving us confidence also so...

just when everybody hate orl.. they will cover the odds eventually

**tbird509** · 02-01-13, 12:10 AM

orl is 2-8 ats in their last ten and 7ats losses in a row and bos is 3-6-1 ats in last 10

**Asset** · 02-01-13, 02:30 AM

Thanks guys, you've convinced me to all balls in...

**noveggies** · 02-01-13, 04:18 AM

Originally posted by Asset

Thanks guys, you've convinced me to all balls in...

I don't know what the line is (I don't see it anywhere), and I'll be on it regardless, but I'm hoping it opens around +35 for ORL to feel better about it

EDIT: you guys making me feel poor talking about your $100 units! I'm using 10 and have been throwing .5u plays on my spreadsheet picks.

**Asset** · 02-01-13, 04:32 AM

LOL +35, the line will be about +9 or +10, well about there.

**Nino7** · 02-01-13, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

i am a little confused by some of your postings actually now. Some weeks you have C bet at 1-0, but also have a D bet... If C bet is undefeated why is there a D bet?
Its like this on multiple weeks...

JMD,maybe the D bets come from last weeks C bet lost.

**Grinder12000** · 02-01-13, 08:17 AM

you guys making me feel poor talking about your $100 units! I'm using 10 and have been throwing .5u plays on my spreadsheet picks.

I'm with you on that one :-)

The key to making money sports wagering is longevity. Keep enjoying what you are doing and minimize stress. The more stress you have to greater chance of quitting. Let the bank grow naturally and keep enjoying the action.

**Stifler** · 02-01-13, 09:36 AM

01.02.2013

S2

(C Bet) Bos fade: Miami -3,5 1,10u | Sacramento +7 2,31u | Orlando - no line up yet

S4

(B Bet) Mia fade: Brooklyn +2 1,10u | Indiana +2 2,31u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Stifler** · 02-01-13, 10:38 AM

- Orlando line updated.

01.02.2013

S2

(C Bet) Bos fade: Miami -3,5 1,10u | Sacramento +7 2,31u | Orlando +9,5 4,85u

S4

(B Bet) Mia fade: Brooklyn +2 1,10u | Indiana +2 2,31u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Grinder12000** · 02-01-13, 10:42 AM

Do you think WE are making the line drop?? or is that just crazy thinking?

**Asset** · 02-01-13, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Do you think WE are making the line drop?? or is that just crazy thinking?

It's possible, but are you placing a lot of $$ on the game? Btw, it takes a lot of $$ to cause a LINE movement.

**Nino7** · 02-01-13, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Do you think WE are making the line drop?? or is that just crazy thinking?

That's something we should pay attention to.whenever a C or D bet comes,are the lines mostly move against us?If they do then we are.

**njb5572** · 02-01-13, 12:21 PM

Orlando is also a 'C' bet for the JM system today, which is a pretty hefty bet.. so stiff's posse are not the only ones putting system money on the game tonight..

**Grinder12000** · 02-01-13, 12:27 PM

I got 2/3 of my bet in at 9. And was waiting until later for 9.5. Guess ill wait now for. 9.

**gamewinninglv** · 02-01-13, 12:28 PM

Dear Orlando Magic,

Let today be the day you turn your crappy performances around from your last two game. Let's cover this game !!!

Good Luck tonight everyone.

IMPORTANT: If you are new to this thread or if you don't know what's going on. Please go to page 46 and read post #1586 for a quick understanding BEFORE posting any questions/comments that may already been covered in that post. Thank you for your cooperation and have a Great Day !!!

**noveggies** · 02-01-13, 12:35 PM

gah, missed +9.5. This is disheartening.