2012-13 NBA Picks

[t-wizzle]

Honestly, this might be my last NBA bet of the year if Charlotte loses this game.

[No coincidences]

I know you're enjoying this for some reason, t-wizz. Have at it.

[t-wizzle]

I know you're enjoying this for some reason, t-wizz. Have at it.

Not at all bro. I have no play on the game.

[No coincidences]

Not at all bro. I have no play on the game.

You think you've had bad beats in the NBA this year -- take a look through this thread. I'm beyond sick of it.

[t-wizzle]

You think you've had bad beats in the NBA this year -- take a look through this thread. I'm beyond sick of it.

Coiner I'm not about to get into a debate of who has had worse luck.

You're not going to stop betting nba. Especially when you're in the black for the year.

[No coincidences]

Coiner I'm not about to get into a debate of who has had worse luck.

You're not going to stop betting nba. Especially when you're in the black for the year.

I'm seriously considering it. And no, I'm not kidding. Something has to go from my plate, and I really think this is going to be it.

[t-wizzle]

I'm seriously considering it. And no, I'm not kidding. Something has to go from my plate, and I really think this is going to be it.

I've heard that from you so many times before man. If your bet loses you will be pissed and I don't blame you but you know you'll be right back at it again the next day.

[No coincidences]

I've heard that from you so many times before man. If your bet loses you will be pissed and I don't blame you but you know you'll be right back at it again the next day.

It's not just this bet, though.

I said it even before the season started -- I wasn't even really looking forward to the NBA and another year of this bullshit. Well sure enough, I'm knee deep in it and ready to just cut my losses. It's a joke.

[No coincidences]

I'm putting myself on a self imposed ban from the NBA for two weeks.

Might be back after that, might not. I just don't have time for this shit anymore.

[t-wizzle]

It's not just this bet, though.

I said it even before the season started -- I wasn't even really looking forward to the NBA and another year of this bullshit. Well sure enough, I'm knee deep in it and ready to just cut my losses. It's a joke.

Aren't you up on the year? Did you make money last year?

I feel extremely snake-bitten this year but at the end of the day you need to be honest with yourself about it and look at all the plays. Wins and losses. How many times have you lost bets when a game looked like a win for 75+% of the way? Well I can almost guarantee you that you can reverse that but we don't realize it because we don't micro-analyze the wins.

[No coincidences]

Aren't you up on the year? Did you make money last year?

I feel extremely snake-bitten this year but at the end of the day you need to be honest with yourself about it and look at all the plays. Wins and losses. How many times have you lost bets when a game looked like a win for 75+% of the way? Well I can almost guarantee you that you can reverse that but we don't realize it because we don't micro-analyze the wins.

No. Not even close.

And yes, I've made money the last two years in the NBA.

75%? More like 95%.

[wguan2]

Aren't you up on the year? Did you make money last year?

I feel extremely snake-bitten this year but at the end of the day you need to be honest with yourself about it and look at all the plays. Wins and losses. How many times have you lost bets when a game looked like a win for 75+% of the way? Well I can almost guarantee you that you can reverse that but we don't realize it because we don't micro-analyze the wins.

This is completely true. Also coin, a few or your bad beats have come on halftime plays. Those type of plays always come down to 2-3 points. They may seem like bad beats when you look at it in a full game point of view but they're really not. Halftime lines are usually pretty sharp. Obviously your conley bet was a bad beat but games where the 4th quarter falls apart or when teams come back to win or when teams stop scoring or start scoring in a certain quarter. Those aren't bad beats. That's why each quarter counts. OT and backdoor covers are bad beats. A team scoring 20 points in 6 minutes is not a bad beat.

[No coincidences]

This is completely true. Also coin, a few or your bad beats have come on halftime plays. Those type of plays always come down to 2-3 points. They may seem like bad beats when you look at it in a full game point of view but they're really not. Halftime lines are usually pretty sharp. Obviously your conley bet was a bad beat but games where the 4th quarter falls apart or when teams come back to win or when teams stop scoring or start scoring in a certain quarter. Those aren't bad beats. That's why each quarter counts. OT and backdoor covers are bad beats. A team scoring 20 points in 6 minutes is not a bad beat.

So was tonight a bad beat by your definition or not?

[t-wizzle]

No. Not even close.

And yes, I've made money the last two years in the NBA.

75%? More like 95%.

I'm not talking specifically about the Bobcats. Hey if you wanna go on a break from nba by all means. Here's why I don't think you will:

1) We've got a few weeks until the bowl season starts.

2) College basketball is much better to bet when conference play starts and you get a better feel for the teams. Also, it's much more hit or miss because you're betting on kids and at any point, they can do the dumbest shit that could cost you a bet.

3) You can't pass on winners. Every once and a while you just get a feeling on a game and that game almost is always a winner. They don't come around every night but they come around frequently enough. I know you liked Bobcats tonight but think about it: You were betting on a Trailblazers-Bobcats game. Two absolute shit teams. Point is, these games don't come around every single night and consequently we're forced to make a play on a game like this because, well, we're hooked on this gambling thing.

[t-wizzle]

This is completely true. Also coin, a few or your bad beats have come on halftime plays. Those type of plays always come down to 2-3 points. They may seem like bad beats when you look at it in a full game point of view but they're really not. Halftime lines are usually pretty sharp. Obviously your conley bet was a bad beat but games where the 4th quarter falls apart or when teams come back to win or when teams stop scoring or start scoring in a certain quarter. Those aren't bad beats. That's why each quarter counts. OT and backdoor covers are bad beats. A team scoring 20 points in 6 minutes is not a bad beat.

[No coincidences]

I'm not talking specifically about the Bobcats. Hey if you wanna go on a break from nba by all means. Here's why I don't think you will:

1) We've got a few weeks until the bowl season starts.

2) College basketball is much better to bet when conference play starts and you get a better feel for the teams. Also, it's much more hit or miss because you're betting on kids and at any point, they can do the dumbest shit that could cost you a bet.

3) You can't pass on winners. Every once and a while you just get a feeling on a game and that game almost is always a winner. They don't come around every night but they come around frequently enough. I know you liked Bobcats tonight but think about it: You were betting on a Trailblazers-Bobcats game. Two absolute shit teams. Point is, these games don't come around every single night and consequently we're forced to make a play on a game like this because, well, we're hooked on this gambling thing.

You mean like tonight?

I won't make another NBA bet for two weeks minimum t-wizz. Mark my words. Again, look at my last 10-15 plays and you'll see why. Just gets old after a while.

[BigDofBA]

I'm not even going to say anything until it's over.....

WTF man. I said this when Charlotte was up 17 with 5:58 left. I was going say that you finally had an easy winner but I knew better.

I just got back from working out and saw the final. I'm sorry man. I can't believe it.

[t-wizzle]

You mean like tonight?

I won't make another NBA bet for two weeks minimum t-wizz. Mark my words. Again, look at my last 10-15 plays and you'll see why. Just gets old after a while.

So you had a great feeling on the bobcats? And went 3 units? This is not the type of game I was referring to.

[No coincidences]

WTF man. I said this when Charlotte was up 17 with 5:58 left. I was going say that you finally had an easy winner but I knew better.

I just got back from working out and saw the final. I'm sorry man. I can't believe it.

All I can do is laugh at this point BigD. Like I said in another thread, losing a 7 point lead in the last minute 30 is worse than anything else. I'm not even sure how that's possible on your home court, even if it is the Bobcats.

[No coincidences]

So you had a great feeling on the bobcats? And went 3 units? This is not the type of game I was referring to.

I went 3 units because it's the Bobcats, who always make me pause. But yes, I had a good feeling about this one. Otherwise I wouldn't have played it, and certainly wouldn't have played it for more than a unit.

[BigDofBA]

This was a bad beat.

T-Wizz, I think you had a team -3 and they were down 13 at the half, trailed for most of the game, and ended up winning by 2 in overtime and you said it was a bad beat.

When you have a favorite and they're down double digits at the half and trail most of the game, it's not a bad beat.

When your up 17 with about 5 minutes to go and lose, it's a bad beat.

[t-wizzle]

This was a bad beat.

T-Wizz, I think you had a team -3 and they were down 13 at the half, trailed for most of the game, and ended up winning by 2 in overtime and you said it was a bad beat.

When you have a favorite and they're down double digits at the half and trail most of the game, it's not a bad beat.

When your up 17 with about 5 minutes to go and lose, it's a bad beat.

Which game was this?

[BigDofBA]

Which game was this?

I think Utah was involved.

Not trying to start anything, I'm just saying the NBA is brutal.

This was a bad beat.

[t-wizzle]

I think Utah was involved.

Not trying to start anything, I'm just saying the NBA is brutal.

This was a bad beat.

Last week's game?

I never called that a bad beat. If you were watching the game you would have seen that the final quarter was ridiculous. There were a ton of questionable calls (Jazz got T'd up several times if I remember correctly) and despite a lot of things going against them, had a chance to ice it with free throws and didn't take care of business. Point is, I never called it a bad beat. The final quarter just had a lot of things work against me.

[lunchbawks]

No crying in gambling, this thread had so much promise

[BigDofBA]

No crying in gambling, this thread had so much promise

Give the guy a break. This was a brutal beat. We've all been there.

I give people shit and hate on stuff but I don't do it after something like this happens.

[wguan2]

No, I really don't think it was a bad beat. If you look at the game, Charlotte shot lights out in the first quarter but then the play through the 2nd and 3rd were even. Portland was in the game for most of the game so I don't know how this is considered a bad beat at all. The spread was 1 point for a reason. It was a toss up and you were on the wrong side of the conclusion. The Conley game was a bad beat obviously but I really don't think this was a bad beat nor the Indiana game the other night.

Look, I'm not trying to start anything but I do think you need a break. The losses are really getting to you and once you start blaming the losses on outside factors, that's when the mudslide happens. We learn more from losses than from wins. Always. So once you start blaming other things, you're not going to succeed. Last year, your thread was one that I looked at a lot because you offered good insight and your knack of picking dogs is one of the best in the forum. But this year, it seems like it's either thread-feuding or complaining.

I hope things start rolling your way buddy. Good luck.

[lunchbawks]

th guy bets 20$ per game it's not life changing money. not sure why everyone needs to console a 40 year man after losses..

take it like a loss in sport, get em tomorrow

[ShogunRua]

Variance works in strange ways no coin. If you take 2 weeks off, you might miss out on 2 weeks of plays where you have a handful of games that go your way when they shouldn't. I can understand going on tilt and needing to clear your head, but taking off 2 days instead of 2 weeks might be a better idea. The 'good luck' 'bad luck' hits and misses usually cancel each other out in the long run.

[dynamite140]

No Coin still throwing darts then whining as usual.

[suicidekings]

No. Not even close.

And yes, I've made money the last two years in the NBA.

75%? More like 95%.

Down early in the NBA this season? Join the club, man... I'm off to my worst start in 5 seasons of NBA, following the same strategies that had previously been quite successful. It's tough when so many teams have been affected by an unusually high occurrence of early season injuries to key players, coaching changes, and trades / free agency shuffling the power distribution. A couple of teams really hit the ground running (Memphis/New York/Golden State) exceeding early season expectations.

But things are starting to even out. The teams that started off slow (Chicago/Boston/Dallas) are really starting to play their brand of ball and righting the ship. I feel like this is the prime time to be keeping an eye on certain teams as they are undervalued at the moment, and a good time to gain back some of the early losses.

[Goat Milk]

whining as usual.

Conspiracies

A novel by
No Coincidences

**Don't forget to pick up my newest pamphlet, "Vegas Jukes."

[No coincidences]

Down early in the NBA this season? Join the club, man... I'm off to my worst start in 5 seasons of NBA, following the same strategies that had previously been quite successful. It's tough when so many teams have been affected by an unusually high occurrence of early season injuries to key players, coaching changes, and trades / free agency shuffling the power distribution. A couple of teams really hit the ground running (Memphis/New York/Golden State) exceeding early season expectations.

But things are starting to even out. The teams that started off slow (Chicago/Boston/Dallas) are really starting to play their brand of ball and righting the ship. I feel like this is the prime time to be keeping an eye on certain teams as they are undervalued at the moment, and a good time to gain back some of the early losses.

Hey SK. Yeah, it's been a struggle for me. I'm just trying to watch games now and do some capping without actually making plays. Still going strong with the NFL and making some college hoop plays, so it's been nice to not think about the NBA too much.

FTR, I almost placed a bet on the Nets tonight. I think they cover and possibly win SU.

I'd also lean Wizards and Bulls. I think the dogs will bite back a little tonight.

[No coincidences]

No, I really don't think it was a bad beat. If you look at the game, Charlotte shot lights out in the first quarter but then the play through the 2nd and 3rd were even. Portland was in the game for most of the game so I don't know how this is considered a bad beat at all. The spread was 1 point for a reason. It was a toss up and you were on the wrong side of the conclusion. The Conley game was a bad beat obviously but I really don't think this was a bad beat nor the Indiana game the other night.

Look, I'm not trying to start anything but I do think you need a break. The losses are really getting to you and once you start blaming the losses on outside factors, that's when the mudslide happens. We learn more from losses than from wins. Always. So once you start blaming other things, you're not going to succeed. Last year, your thread was one that I looked at a lot because you offered good insight and your knack of picking dogs is one of the best in the forum. But this year, it seems like it's either thread-feuding or complaining.

I hope things start rolling your way buddy. Good luck.

Hope things are going well for you. Good luck tonight.

[No coincidences]

Variance works in strange ways no coin. If you take 2 weeks off, you might miss out on 2 weeks of plays where you have a handful of games that go your way when they shouldn't. I can understand going on tilt and needing to clear your head, but taking off 2 days instead of 2 weeks might be a better idea. The 'good luck' 'bad luck' hits and misses usually cancel each other out in the long run.

Hopefully I haven't been "missing" much. I know for a fact I would've been on the Nuggets Sunday and the Pistons and Rockets last night, which were brutal beats.