-
Comment -
lol why would I lie? We've got alot of people who try to use different aliases and many get caught and accounts closed off. Other bookmakers may work differently as they have different systems to catch people deliberately avoiding. Most corporates hate clients betting on props due to how small the market is.Last edited by h3da; 08-21-13, 01:18 AM.Comment -
Betting patterns, ip check (if you ever accidently log on with same ip you will be caught), depositing money, address. If you open under your gf and win by taking best price or line, she will be limited as well. Tbh i dont really care, im just telling u what they do. I use betfairComment -
Look how many corporates there are, that's alot of accounts to go through. What about when she gets limited? Her best friend. If you throw some small change her way she'll think you're doing her a favor.
I agree betfair is a valuable tool for horse players but I really don't agree with you as far as undervaluing the competitiveness of the market, your assertion is circumstantial.Comment -
Agreed with fit, matchbook is great, even after commissions they beat basically everywhere. The real knife through my heart with them is they offer pretty much next to nothing markets wise. I mean u can't even geta first half bet for Christ sake, really sucksComment -
I mostly stick to MLs, Spreads and Totals. Never been limited by Aussie books with NRL or NBA, and I withdraw regularly too. Back when I was making large plays, 1-2k bets with Centrebet would go through without any problems. But don't trust them anymore after they tried to stop a withdrawal. Lately they seem to have lowered their limits on US sports.
I avoid hitting Sportsbet's soft lines too hard, they're my favourite Aussie book, always pay out quickly and would rather keep them on my side.
Betfair has flaws but they're the best for large plays if the market is deep enough. They don't care as long as you stay under $20k exposure.Last edited by MrXYZ; 08-21-13, 07:04 AM.Comment -
I can confirm I tried using my dad's name and Sportsbet rang me, and when my dad answered the phone they knew straight away he was not the account bettor, and asked to speak to me. After I reluctantly admitted I opened the account under his name to bet, they obviously then proceeded to close my/dad's account.Last edited by locsports; 08-21-13, 11:43 AM.Comment -
Oh and they watch especially accounts under female names who seems to know what they are doing. Good luck when they ring to inquire about your bets. Account closed due to fraud and only initial deposit refunded.Comment -
-
Gonna hammer the NRL again this week, lot's of games I like. At work all day, quiet day so lots of time to "put in real work".
Melbourne -27.5 (v Parra) madness right? The sort of lines that are only usually seen in the Super League? You thought the Roosters -24.5 (v Wests Tigers) was crazy last week? Well before anyone starts with the "Parra +27.5 is an auto-play" ask yourself this - if you could create a doomsday type matchup right now with current form and injuries taken into account, would there be any scenario worse than this current Parra team (based on form and injuries) having to travel to Aami and play this current Storm team (based on red hot form and no significant injuries other than Widdop)? I don't think so. For me everything hangs on whether Hayne plays or not - yes he is that important. I don't think he will, why bother when Parra knows they will lose the game and why risk their one and only superstar, however will not commit to Melbourne until confirmation that the Hayne plane is grounded.Comment -
I will be very surprised if Hayne playsComment -
Ditto - why would you play Hayne in this spot? I like Melbourne to rack the points up here, they are 25 points behind Manly in differential, and given Manly plays Melbourne at BO - a winnable game - they could end up even and it be decided on points difference. So I think Storm will be happy to put on 40+ against Parra.Comment -
Been looking at Matchbook - lines are no better than Pinny's, and even less markets, why do people use them?
But on the flipside - BetVictor looks great, just like Bet365 before they decided to go the official Australian licensing path.Last edited by benrama; 08-21-13, 07:34 PM.Comment -
Just listened to a radio interview with Chris Masten from west coast. He's said straight out that the guys will be looking for Kennedy this week to get him up. More good news I guess, however id say gws would be doing the exact same thing.Comment -
NRL
Got one early play that I should share now so that anyone who is interested can grab the best line. Only Bet365 is still offering the -4, however can get -2.5 @ $1.77 (Sportsbet/IAS) -3.5 @ $1.78 (Centrebet/Sportingbet) and -4.5 @ $1.97 (Pinnacle). I like this play up to -5.5 (although for a smaller stake, maybe 1-1.5 units).
Two rather evenly matched teams on paper, both have been in good form recently. Bizarrely the Knights have been playing better on the road than at home (where they have been woeful). Since coach Henry's sacking, the Cowboys have been playing the way many of us expected them to all season. They are 3-0 and averaging 29.6ppg, whilst only conceding 8.6ppg, and this is against decent opposition in the Rabbitohs, Titans and Panthers. Cowboys with a slight advantage in the forwards, although Tamou has been playing on reputation this year and is below his best. He will not play for Australia this year (Fifita should claim his spot) although he does still form the best front row in the NRL with the ever reliable Matt Scott. Big Willie would really be useful for the Knights in this game, however it should be noted that Snowden is a beast and in great form. Knights with a slight advantage across the 3/4 line, however the Cowboys Brent Tate is in fine form and more importantly Matty Bowen is also/finally in great form. The Cowboys at their best have always been about the 1-2 punch that is JT-Bowen. The halves are where the biggest discrepancy lies, as Mullen and Roberts are "serviceable" for the Knights whereas post-origin JT could lay claim as to being the best player in the game and most definitely the best play-maker. Both teams with plenty to play for, no extra motivation for either. The Cowboys (like the Warriors) are a big momentum team and when they are rolling can beat anyone, as the Rabbitohs found out.The Cowboys were horrible last week and yet still covered the line against a Titans team that always plays them tough. Would expect a significant improvement across the board this week, guaranteed they have been running skills drills all week at training. Cowboys are only 5-5 at home this season, however they are still 12-6 ATS in home games over the last two seasons and this is a vastly different team over the last month, more like last years Cowboys than the first 20 rounds of this season. Cowboys at home now with a very real chance to make the finals (genuine motivation) and in great form (big time momentum team) are at least a converted try better than a talented but very inconsistent Knights team.
2* Cowboys -4 ($1.95 Bet365)Comment -
both Matchbook and Marathon are very nice generally-unappreciated but very-valuable outs to have cf. Pinny...
if you could only have one book, no question that book'd have to be Pinny...but you CAN and SHOULD have more than one book...and each additional good one you have will "have its moments" (ie. give you the occasional standout line on a play..that'll substantially reduce your loss/increase your payout over the "pinny only" option for that play)...
a variety of Skrill-able books viewable on one odds hub (even the SBR freebie http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/ ) will allow you to systematize and simplify the most-overlooked aspect of the sports-betting process ==> line-shopping .Last edited by fitguy67; 08-21-13, 10:32 PM.Comment -
Is it a coincidence that the cows line moved to 1.87 soon after your post Sando ?. Love the play im on it.Comment -
Interesting game .. My initial thoughts were that the scoreline flattered the Cowboys last week, and the Knights were much better than the scoreline indicated against the Storm. So usually that means that the Knights would be value this week - but I don't feel it.
One thing I have noticed the last couple of weeks, and Sando mentions it quickly , the Cowboys defence has been great. Titans were camped on the Cowboys line last week and didnt look like scoring. Not sure what the lines are but I feel this will be a low scoring encounter.Comment -
How would you know it's from them in the first place? Good luck with alias accounts. Below are the terms and conditions for Sportsbet so if you get caught, good luck getting your winnings out. Note I do not work for sportsbet etc. (Work for one of their competitors and was caught previously by opening an account under my partner's name with IASBET)
49. Sportsbet may employ third party technologies to track and store technical information on the device that Members choose to use. Members accept that this data may be used to reach decisions on investigations where Accounts have not been operated in good faith, including but not limited to Account takeover, bonus or betting abuse, multiple Account operations, payment method abuse etc.
50. Sportsbet reserves the right to close the Accounts of, and void any or all bets made by any person, group of people or corporation in an attempt to defraud Sportsbet.
51. Sportsbet may periodically review Accounts to monitor any activity that it might consider unusual. In this instance, Sportsbet reserves the right to suspend an Account pending a full investigation, without notice.Last edited by h3da; 08-22-13, 01:02 AM.Comment -
Why would you ever answer your spare phone you bought for this purpose? That's the whole point of it.
Look mate, you say you don't really care but you've clearly got a dog in this fight. Any book who liberally bans winners deserves to get bearded into, I don't care about there terms and conditions as long as they can be evaded.
You even tried to beard into one, so if you're on the forum members side why don't you give us your opinion on the best way to beard in without getting caught.Comment -
Best way to do it is, open an account under a male account (close friend) cannot live close or together etc and do not deliberately snipe top of the market. As I said, if you open an account under a female name, you would be caught much faster.Bookies most hated punters are those who deliberately search books for slow moving lines, small markets such as props, top price so it's just a matter of time they will ban you. What alot of people do to avoid it is, have few little horse racing bets (couple of dollars) so they think you are a mug betting the circuit. They like profiles of retail punters and will mark you down as non elite so all the bets auto accept rather than elite clients where everything needs to processed via bookmaker as they will scan to make sure you haven't taken best price etc.
Bookies are in business to make money and whoever aren't profitable to them, they will just ban those clients or limit them to peanuts. They have KPI's they must hit which is understandable and generally you must be always sniping prices to be banned.Last edited by h3da; 08-22-13, 01:45 AM.Comment -
Ah did not think of that, maybe it would have helped. But seeing as my dad is old and does not speak english well, I assume they would have found out sooner or later regardless of which phone number i provided them.
Same thing happened to me at Pinny, but they did not ring they just emailed asking me to provide a Statutory Declaration from him, which he did at the police station and emailed them the scan.
Its too late now for Sportsbet/IAS, they closed our accounts last year. Sux because sometimes Sportsbet have promo bets that other books dont offer, and also for in-play markets. I am on alot of books, but certainly do miss them as an option.Comment -
another great "variety" book which has excellent "sore thumb" odds on a few (usually on big-dog bets in plain-vanilla US-team-sports) plays is SportsInteraction...basically crap odds for most plays you're looking at...but enought square-assed fat ones roll down your alley at 10 points or better than anywhere else to make you glad it's in your stable...and if you use skrill it's one of those no-hassle insta-withdrawal books (like BFair, B365, Pinny, Ladbrokes)...everyone mentions Bodog as a useful "square" book to have...but they don't work with skrill anymore and are notorious for dragging their feet on withdrawals...sia is the single-best square book for US-team-sports..
Pinny is your go-to book and u'll use it for a good number of plays daily...but don't turn your nose up at books that come through for you in the clutch ONLY a few times each week...every little ka-ching (either a marginally smaller loss or a marginally larger win) on individual plays actually makes an enormous $-difference over a season/year...line-shopping is not sexy...but it has a FAR bigger impact on ROI% than you think...and it largely comes down to having MORE funded books visible at-a-glance than you THINK you really needLast edited by fitguy67; 08-22-13, 05:05 AM.Comment -
I'm looking at the prop markets for this weekend and one that has jumped out at me is if the first try will be converted in the Sharks vs Roosters game. Looking at the numbers that centrebetchave put out for every single game regardless of how good the kickers are they have set the odds at 1.25 that the try will be converted or 3.75 that it won't.
James Maloney has been on a hot streak kicking and is at 89.7% (87/97) and with the sharks Carney who kicked last week is at 92.5% (37/40) and Gordon who could potentially kick as well is at 89.3% (25/28).
An 80% rate is needed to break even with the 1.25 bet (if no try is scored bet is void) can anyone think why this wouldn't be a good bet as I don't really want to have that ahhhh why'd I do that moment when I think of any other factors later in the week.
Edit: I've found odds of 1.33 that the first try will be converted which equates to a success rate of 75.2% needed to break even (even better
)
Last edited by micase; 08-22-13, 06:16 AM.Comment -
Adding...
This is what I have for now.
Dragons v Wests Tigers
1.5* Under 44 ($1.91 Bet365)
.
Storm v Eels
3* Storm -26.5 ($1.91 Sportingbet)
Sea Eagles @ Raiders
1.1* Sea Eagles -7.5 ($1.93 Bet365)
1* Sea Eagles (to win by) 13+ ($2.50 Bet365)
Yes I am well aware David Furner was sacked, the Raiders are my team, although after twenty years of this b/s I am ready to cut them loose. Anyway I'm well aware of the whole “game after the coach got sacked” angle as well, however, what I am far more interested in, is what pain the Sea Eagles are going to inflict this week on the unlucky Raiders. With Toovey walking around breathing fire and blowing gaskets, well the Raiders are just the unlucky team to have to face the Sea Eagles the week after the debacle that was the Manly/Souths game. Manly at full strength, they would beat any team in the NRL this week I propose. So the Raiders are gutted by “injuries” and now re-arranged/unsettled at key positions and there vaunted home ground “fortress” mentality has been blown away by the Storm and ‘doggies. The Raiders are playing that little shit Milford at 5/8 – the kid doesn’t want anything to do with the club. How can this be healthy for the team? If it wasn’t for Furner’s sacking I’d be playing big, but must respect these sort of unknown variables and downsize accordingly.Comment -
I thought I heard Milford was out for Reece robinson?Comment -
Tottenham and Swansea to win tonight in the Europa league easy money at 2.1 for the double. Both should win comfortably against weak opposition.Comment
