So anyone playing the Roosters -24.5?
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U really think roosters can win.by. 25 or more seems steepComment -
Don't let the large line scare you. Roosters still playing for the minor premiership. Tigers are bad. Roosters will win by 30+ easily.Comment -
Does percentage play a large role in nrl? Will percentage be a factor come the end of the year like it will be in the afl with Sydney/Fremantle for example?Comment -
NRL
MNF - Roosters v Wests Tigers
1* Jarred Waerea-Hargraves Over 130.5 metres ($1.87 Luxbet)
1* James Maloney Over 87.5 Supercoach points ($1.88 Sportsbet) (Over 82.5 for $1.67 @ Luxbet)
Conservative estimate puts Maloney on 89 SC points. Generous estimate puts him on 100+ SC points.
JWH the main man in the Roosters pack and with no Cordner means even more work to do, with his replacement SBW being more of a ball player than a metre eater. Plus Tigers defence even worse without Farrah and Woods, means easy metres for JWH.Last edited by sando; 08-19-13, 03:38 AM.Comment -
It still could be a factor. They have a decent F/A above Souths I think about 80. However Souths still have tigers to come and they play roosters in rd 26.
Anything is possible in the Nrl but roosters getting an extra 30 or 40 on top of their already good difference should secure them the minor premiership.Comment -
I'm on the over 48.5 (see my thread). If you think its too high, Sando's play on the over Roosters try total is an excellent bet if your book offers it. Good luck everyone.Comment -
The game tonight is of no real significance apart from being a Monday naught game. The line moved from 22.5 up to 24.5 pretty quickly, It is a tricky one but not one to get very excited about.
I like a 1 unit bet split in 3 to put on exact winning margin of
Roosters by 22 @16
Roosters by 24 @16
Roosters by 26 @ 18.
Enjoy the gameComment -
Going with the Tigers with that HUGE line, seems everyone favouring the Roosters to cover. But with mini and cordner out, think that Tigers have enough experience to coverComment -
Just for the record I don't like taking the spread in either direction, however the reason I posted the link to that Tom Waterhouse post was to point out how poor of a play taking the Tigers ATS is (statistically). I'm not playing either side, I'm very happy with my own play, however "gun to my head" I would play the Roosters ATS absolutely. Obviously the best way to make money in the long term is to pick your spots in this sport particularly, so how taking a very poor team in serious turmoil without their two best players and with their third best player in career worst form is "a good spot" against a team that realistically could destroy them by 40+ is beyond me? Oh and I have crunched a lot of numbers on this one and can assure you that stats most definitely back up a very big Roosters win tonight. MNF hoodoo b/s means nothing to me. I have zero interest in superstitious elements, genuine tangible factors are what I focus on.Last edited by sando; 08-19-13, 04:02 AM.Comment -
Luxbet are offering $1.92 for roosters over 6.5 try in case no1 has got on yetComment -
You should always be suspicious when a bookie is telling you specific cherry-picked facts, even if - well by definition - they are true.
This could be a slaughter tonight but it could also be like the Storm MNF game early in the season where Tigers managed to grind away find a few mistakes get a few lucky bounces and all of a sudden they are ahead by a try with 15 minutes to go. They also ended up losing that one by 14
Anyway nearly game time, this one is a live bet for me - BOL lads!Comment -
Sando, if its a 'poor' play, and 'beyond' you how anyone can take the Tigers than you should really be playing the line. I think we all have made plays for less. Hopefully it will be entertaining game ...Comment -
Tigers here to play!Comment -
Shaping up to be an MNF classic.Comment -
I don't agree with the logic at all. It'll send you broke. It makes sense if you are talking about a normal sized spread, but at 24.5 it is a whole new ball game. I'm more of an AFL guy, but the obvious comparison (betting wise) is Gold Coast and GWS in their first seasons in AFL - very hard to take them, but that doesn't mean laying the -75 was the right play either.Comment -
Lets talk second half. I'm thinking it'll be about 12.5 (spread) and 25 (I know it won't be that number, but not sure if it'll be 24.5 or higher) whatever happens in the next 10 minutes.Comment -
any freakin chance roosters cover spread nowComment -
Mate it's a fifty fifty chance- if you think one side is very poor, then I am asking why the other option isn't even worth a play.
It's upto Sando what he plays but I think everyone is entitled to his thoughtsComment -
Yeah, I just don't reckon not being able to play one side means the other side is a play, which is what you were saying.
I ended up having a nibble on Roosters 2H -11.5.Comment -
How the phuck doesn't O'Donnell get sent off for that?Comment -
Here come the roostersComment -
Sorry mate no offence intended. I hadn't actually seen your post saying you were taking the Tigers when I posted my own thoughts, so I definitely wasn't trying to "put you down". I know how well you know your league, specifically from our discussions in the SOO thread.
Just resting, not injured, don't stress if you played it - 85 metres at HT and we should be good for 130. He's unstoppable with a full head of steam at the moment.Comment -
This is turning into massacre. Cash the Over!Comment -
got a fiver on -46.5 @ 6.50 come on!Comment -
damn was too busy today and didnt get a chance to put in a play for the over! Grats on the 3 unit play!Comment -
I was assuming he was just taking an extended HT break and would be back on after maybe 10 minutes to easily rack up the 45 metres needed to cash the over. Turns out the Roosters are going to sit him the entire 2nd half and he's not even injured. Should have cashed/would have cashed - Shit happens. At least Maloney will cash if you played them both...Comment -
that was quite the tease oh well had a nice play on the -24.5 too and sbw to scoreComment -
Roosters and over for 2nd half were the easiest live bets I've made in a while, sorry can't post here as I watch MNF at a local retirement home with an old fella (who nearly cracked first grade for Tigers back in the day, still loves 'em bits - hence why I've left early :P). Managed to sneak out for a quick cheeky live phone wager!
Tigers were only behind 8 by a miracle in the first half, it had blow out written all over it.
Theses Roosters are looking unbeatable and that SBW, he'd have to be borderline with Inglis for best player in the game - freak offloads and amazing passing game for someone with that natural physical build.
I think only the Storm can beat Rooaters with their discipline, and only if they play their A game and Roosters make some sloppy mistakes.Comment -
No issue here mate .. Good call. Ended up splitting bet between halftime, full time and that sweet spot bet tab has running , but the Tigers couldn't even hit that.
I actually think Storm and Manly are a big chance. Hard to argue bout the Roosters after a performance like that but I don't know there is something about them, that I am not entirely sold on.
I think the halves can fold under pressure but I love their wingers and most of the forwards.
I am leaning Storm when push comes to shove and Manly has the best roster in my opinion. Unfortunately I think Souths will not make the GF, I think their win over Manly hid a few problems. Other than GI they actually have an average back line .Comment
