12/19
Heat -5.5 (-102) - 1x
Heat -5.5 (-102) - 1x
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The Heat's biggest weakness is rebounding and the Mavs have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA. Also, I think the Mavs have overachieved a bit (Marion and Kaman playing so well) and Miami has been playing harder after going about 80% for the beginning of the season. I think the Heat come out with a solid effort tonight on the road and cover 5.5Comment -
Pacers -4 (-108) - 1xComment -
Hawks -2 (-108) - 1xComment -
Wiz +6 (-103) - 1xComment -
Mavs 1H +6.5 (-110) - 0.5xComment -
Blazers ml (+102) - 1x
Jazz ml (+110) - 1xComment -
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Nuggets/Clippers u201.5 (-106) - 1xComment -
Celtics/Nets 2H u92 (-110) - 1xComment -
Clippers -6.5 (-102) - 1x
Nuggets TT u98.5 (-110) - 1xComment -
LIVE: Bulls TT u97 (-115) - 1xComment -
12/26
Nets/Bucks u190 (-107) - 1x
The Nets play at the slowest pace in the NBA, per Holinger's statistics, at just 90.0 possessions per game. They have failed to break 100 points in regulation in every game since Dec 7. Deron Williams is complaining about pain in his shooting wrist - not enough to keep him out of action - but enough to affect his shot. The Bucks are one of the least efficient offenses in the league as their top two scorers shoot under 40%. Their defense has been much improved as well. We also have two defensive-minded coaches in this one with Avery Johnson and Scott Skiles. Although their rosters don't neccesarily cater to great defense, these two coaches still attempt to get the most out of what they have to work with on the defensive end.
I am fading the line move here as I don't see why it has been clicking upwards this afternoon. Only thing I can think of is extended rest for the home team and Udrih is coming back? Anyone who is experienced palying totals please feel free to come in and let me know why you think this one is moving up, would be much appreciated.Comment -
T'wovles 1H -3 (-110) - 1x
Minnesota has been playing some pretty solid ball against good competition of late and they have consistently performed better in the first half than in the second half in those games (last 5 of Dallas, at Orlando, at Miami, OKC, at NYK are all examples). They struggle to find a go-to late game option since Love is struggling with his shot so things end up getting pretty chaotic at the end of games. I hate to use the word "due" but Houston has been playing better than they really are over the past few games and are due to come back to earth a bit. The situation of going into Minnesota off a satisfying win and a b2b will be no easy task for the Rockets. I think Minnesota comes out blazing and builds a lead early in this one.Comment -
Pistons +8 (-109) - 1.5x
Warriors +4.5 (-108) - 1xLast edited by celtics3388; 12-26-12, 07:23 PM.Comment -
Knicks/Suns 2H u96 (-102) - 1xComment -
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Updated Record
85-85, +4.28 unitsComment -
12/27
Mavs 1H +6 (-105) - 1.5x
I think the Mavs hang in for at least a half in tonight's contest as this looks like a decent let-down spot for OKC. OKC put a lot into their X-mas day game and I can't see them being fully focused for the "struggling" Mavs tonight. Dallas was in flux going into the break with Mayo playing poorly and Dirk just getting back into the lineup. In my mind, a few days off is just what they needed. Due to those recent struggles, there is some value in Dallas as they looked worse than they really are over the past few games against exceptional competition (Miami, at Memphis, at San Antonio). I am hesitant to play them for the full game as OKC is very explosive at home when they need to be, but +6 -105 looks good for the 1st half.Comment -
I think I like the Clippers in the late game but I've been going back and forth all day so I may just wait and try to make a LIVE play.Comment -
Celts/Clips 1H o95.5 (-110) - 0.5x
Rondo comes in looking to score and push the pace early. He typically plays well in the spotlight and this is certainly one of those spots. Clippers shouldn't have a problem scoring inside versus the C's early. Expect a little pace early on before the teams settle in and grind defensively. Will be looking to play the 2nd half under if this hitsComment -
12/28
Blazers/Lakers 1H o104 (-110) - 1.5x
Raptors/Hornets o183 (-105) - 1xLast edited by celtics3388; 12-28-12, 05:47 PM.Comment -
Suns 1H +4.5 (-105) - 1x
I think the Suns hang here without Dragic for at least the first half. Indy may be a little complacent in this spot. They were excited for their game against the Bulls coming out of the break, and I think they may have a bit of a let-down early on with this being the Suns rather than their rivals. They also have Atlanta and Memphis to look ahead to next. Their mindset will be they can cruise to an easy victory, after all they have won 6 of 7. Indy has struggled to score all year and is a not a very good basketball team when they don't bring their top-notch defensive intensity, which I don't think they will have early on in this one. Telfair looked decent in place of Dragic the other night and he is clearly playing hard so he can get into the rotation more when Dragic returns. Players tend to play above their normal talent level for the first couple games when they are replacing a starter. The Suns have a few other pieces that can put up some points especially if they can get out in transition a bit. May look to Indy or the under in the 2H if this hits.Comment -
Lakers not playing much D at all this year, I think Portland comes out hot with their jumpers and cools off in the 2nd half. The Lakers shouldn't have much trouble scoring at all the entire game. Nash being back theorectically improves their offense and hurts their defense, and I tend to agree with that premise although they can't be much worse defensively than they've been lately.
We have a matchup of the 25th (TOR) and 29th (NOH) ranked teams in defensively efficiency this year, per Hollinger's Team stats. They are also middle of the pack (14th and 19th) in offensive effiencieny somewhat surprisingly. The problem is both these teams are in the bottom 3rd in PACE. But with the return of Eric Gordon and Kyle Lowry off both benches, I think this gets over the low total of 183.Comment -
12/31
Hawks/Rockets o206 (-108) - 2x
The Hawks tend to play to the pace of their competition and Houston plays at the fastest pace in the NBA by a pretty wide margin, per Hollinger's stats. Josh Smith is out tonight - he tends to be a bit of a ball stopper and boards up defensively. Also, the Hawks have a bunch of streaky perimeter guys who are hot and playing with confidence right now (Teague, Korver, Lou Williams) so I'd like to ride their hot streak and I think the over is a better way to do it than the Hawks +5. The Rockets have been a dead over team all year - especially the past two weeks with the exception of one outlier (@ Minny). Another thing to consider is the Rockets have been blown out the past couple of games playing this crazy fast style which typically makes me think they would make some adjustments but this has become their identity and I don't think this particular team being as inexperienced as they are is capable of making those kind of adjustments game-to-game. They would have to drop a few straight to inferior competition for those changes to be made IMO. By the 2nd quarter this team will be back to getting out in transaition as much as possible and the Hawks will be content to play that style.Last edited by celtics3388; 12-31-12, 02:49 PM.Comment -
Nets/Spurs 1H o99.5 (-110) - 1xComment -
Decided to only play the first half for a few reasons: The Nets offense is pretty basic and I think the Spurs will make adjustments later on to slow down Lopez and after that there isn't much going for the Nets. This year the Nets have a strong trend of coming out fast in the first half only to slow things down in the 3rd quarter and concluding with a very stagnant 4th quarter where they score like 16 points. The Nets played at a faster pace the other night and I would think that would continue early on in this one (why else would they fire a slow the pace, defensive-minded coach if not to change style?). So maybe we see more energy expended on the offensive end rather than on defense. The Spurs offense is rolling right now with Leonard and Jackson back, Parker is on fire and even Ginobli has been shooting it well over his past 3 games. They are extremely efficient offensively so as long as Brooklyn can get into the mid to high 40s I think this hits.Comment -
yeah but i dont like spurs becuase the starts rarley play 4th quaterComment -
Updated Record:
91-86, +10.73 unitsComment -
1/1
Hornets +2 (-109) - 1x
This is a fatigue spot for the Hawks - they are playing their 4th game in 5 days and are a little banged up (Harris out, Smith playing hurt). This is not really a game that I expect them to be up for as I think they are pretty satisfied at how their season is going thus far and have won 4 of 5. NOH has really been hurt this year by the loss of two very underrated players in Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry (both on GSW this yr). But they have Eric Gordon back and he looked pretty good physically in his first game back. He is a huge upgrade over what they have at shooting guard (Austin Rivers and Mason Jr combo). They have lacked a guy who can create his own shot so I expect his return to be a rather large boost for NOH. Somehow Robin Lopez and Vasquez have been playing above their talent levels as well so we'll hope that continues tonight. This is clearly a Hornets line as a 7-23 team is only getting 2 points against a 19-10 team. Wish we had more of cushion than 2 points but I guess this is a pretty obvious spot.Comment -
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Nets/Thunder 2H u99 (-110) - 1xComment -
1/4
Thunder 1H -6.5 (-105) - 1x
Thunder -10.5 (-107) - 0.5xComment -
Sixers/Thunder 2H u97 (-110) - 1x
Too much 1-on-1 offensively for OKC tonight. Everyone trying to do it themselves. They are playing hard though - actually trying too hard. I think that helps their D and hurts them on offense.Comment