My Motorsport 2014

[Optional]

Opti: Ready for analysis this week? :-)

Still 2 weeks away for Barcelona race!

I will say this though. Every team expects an aero update for the first european race and teams using Total fuel are expecting a formula change that is supposed to give a noticeable horsepower boost (red bull).

Will need to wait until after Friday practice at least to get a feel for who has what speed. Will be watching Williams closely. McLaren have a big package they have been talking about already too.

[SubjectMatterExp]

Anything on the Indy car race?

[5mike5]

Anything on the Indy car race?

yeah looks like trcj i almost dry...thats how bored i am im, wanted to watch some of it but though it satrted

any thougts on winners by anybody that follos INDY?

i sure dont

[yisman]

MU [7755] R HUNTER REAY -170 (R HUNTER REAY vrs S PAGENAUD)

and Rahal +110 over Briscoe, trying to lock this in


also, 17 listed drivers at youwager (many books have taken odds down by now), field 25/1

I get aleshin, rahal, servia, saavedra

so I'll try it.

[5mike5]

they had power up in parlayables but tok him down all the sudden..,.

boooooooo,....INDY car blows

[Optional]

Had no idea. Would have taken Power I guess.


Good luck guys.

[Optional]

LOL... as I type that he slides off with a 4 second lead and gives it up to Hunter-Reay

[milehigh]

Still 2 weeks away for Barcelona race!

I will say this though. Every team expects an aero update for the first european race and teams using Total fuel are expecting a formula change that is supposed to give a noticeable horsepower boost (red bull).

Will need to wait until after Friday practice at least to get a feel for who has what speed. Will be watching Williams closely. McLaren have a big package they have been talking about already too.

Yeah I was on a plane and misread the calendar--will check back in with you then

[Optional]

A couple of early thoughts for Barcelona.

This is going to be a really tough race to predict the pecking order with everyone having targeted the 2 week break and this race to bring their first true major upgrades of the year to each car. All we really have to go off is how confident the teams sound, for what thats worth. McLaren, Lotus and Sauber sound most confident about making big improvements. (although those three teams also have more ground to make up than most so they should)

Vettel will have a new chassis after the team said it was "possible" he had a crack somewhere that was affecting it. At very least it should help his confidence level, even if no crack was there.

All the teams and most of the drivers know this track better than any other, plus its a bit of a challenge to pass anyway, so qualifying order usually goes a long way to predicting finishing order.

Apart from Alonso winning from 5th last year and Schumacher winning from 3rd in 1996, all other 21 grands prix held here have been won from 1st or 2nd on the grid. So everyone focuses extra hard on qualifying.

Anyway enough rambling. A few early longshots in the dark.

Pole Winner

Hamilton is -185 and Rosberg +240

Again Mercedes should take pole but for the reasons stated above about the upgrades this is just terrible value imho.

If you must bet one them, Rosberg is very fired up to beat Hamilton, and claiming he is just as fast in the dry in race conditions (which is clearly delusional I think) and he will know qualifying ahead of his team mate is almost half the battle here. But I'd just forget both really.

This might sound crazy, but Grosjean at 450/1 for pole is worth a shot. This has been one of the best tracks for Lotus the last 3 years and Grosjean has qualified row 2 or 3 in his two attempts. I don't really expect Lotus to make the massive improvement required to knock Mercedes off in a straight battle... but I'd almost bet my house circumstances could see a strong post break Lotus win the pole here better than 1 in 50 attempts let alone 450.

Alonso at 35/1 and Hulkenburg at 150/1 are other ones over the odds imho.

Vettel and Ricciardo at 18/1 are probably around fair odds. The Red Bulls strength in the fast corners, Vettels new chassis, new fuel from Total and whatever other improvements Newey has come up with mean they might be a chance, but like anyone else will probably need the help of some luck going their way and against Mercedes.


Romain Grosjean +2500 for a Top 6 finish right now will prove to be awesome value if he qualifies anywhere in the top 10, if you want to take a risk on Lotus finally pulling it together as i do.


Also think No Retirement +3300 might be a shot this week in the First Driver Retirement market. (and No Safety Car if your book offers that)


Will have to watch practice and probably quali as well before making any sensible predictions. I'll be watching the McLaren and Lotus guys closely to see if they have made a jump in particular.

[Optional]

I really like this bet a lot the more I think about it, Romain Grosjean +2500 for a Top 6 finish.

As I said he only needs to qualify top 10 for it to be excellent value and honestly I'll be a bit shocked and disappointed if Lotus/Renault haven't finally got a working car. Which means a top 10 minimum in quali for them.

[milehigh]

Tailed your Grosjean play...will wait for the H2Hs that have been my bread and butter and go from there!

[Optional]

Tailed your Grosjean play...will wait for the H2Hs that have been my bread and butter and go from there!

The Lotus looks much better as I expected but in practice 1 Grojean was having a lot more setup issues than his team mate. At least Maldonado was able to show the Lotus is a top 10 quali contender.

Hope i picked the right horse

[Optional]

I ended up taking Grosjean for top 10 @ 2/1 as well as the top 6 bet btw.

[Optional]

Vettel broke down with a short circuit in the wiring loom in FP1 and they have just said they can't get it fixed in time for 2nd practice.

Bad for both Red Bulls as they were trying to run different aero packages for these practices, but a very good reason to fade Vettel v Ricciardo in head 2 heads.

Kimi spoke about how far it puts you behind missing practice with these new cars after the last race. Not having any useful notes to fall back on.

[milehigh]

Hopefully they have trouble (like big trouble) that gives 2 more spots for Grosjean to hop up into the top 6 :-)

[Optional]

Hopefully they have trouble (like big trouble) that gives 2 more spots for Grosjean to hop up into the top 6 :-)

Grosjean still doesn't appear to have hit the setup.

But Maldonado again confirmed the car has enough to fight for the 5th to 10th spots.


If Maldonado is somehow still anywhere near 35/1 for top 6 and 3/1 for top 10 as he was I am going to add him as well when odds comeback up.

Thinking I have picked the wrong Lotus right now. Hopefully they will get Grosjean up there with him after tomorrows session.

[Optional]

McLaren showed much better race pace than the last race. Should be best of the rest ahead of Force India and Williams the way it's going so far.

[Optional]

Adding

Formula 1 Spanish Grand Prix - Top 10 Finish

Pastor Maldonado +275


3rd practice in 40 mins... be quick, I expect he will be even money or worse for top 10 when odds re-posted after quali.

[Optional]

Qualifying matchup odds are bonkers.

Every favorite bar 1 should win, but at these odds you just about have to take all those dogs if betting.

Taking Guitierz +105 > Sutil as my only quali bet.

New Sauber chassis this weekend which is 15kg lighter, meaning Gutierrez has almost 15kg of ballast to move around for the first time this year. Sutil weighs almost 15kg more than Guitierrez so still has zero ballast to work with.


Qualifying Matchups - Spanish Grand Prix - Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya - Barcelona, Spain - Saturday 10th, 8:00 AM - NBCSN

Sat 5/10 5001 Lewis Hamilton (Qualifying) -400
5:00AM 5002 Nico Rosberg (Qualifying) +310

Sat 5/10 5003 Felipe Massa (Qualifying) -195
5:00AM 5004 Valtteri Bottas (Qualifying) +160

Sat 5/10 5005 Sebastian Vettel (Qualifying) +115
5:00AM 5006 Daniel Ricciardo (Qualifying) -145

Sat 5/10 5007 Fernando Alonso (Qualifying) -335
5:00AM 5008 Kimi Raikkonen (Qualifying) +255

Sat 5/10 5009 Jenson Button (Qualifying) -205
5:00AM 5010 Kevin Magnussen (Qualifying) +165

Sat 5/10 5011 Nico Hulkenberg (Qualifying) -270
5:00AM 5012 Sergio Perez (Qualifying) +210

Sat 5/10 5013 Jean-Eric Vergne (Qualifying) -110
5:00AM 5014 Daniil Kvyat (Qualifying) -120

Sat 5/10 5015 Jules Bianchi (Qualifying) -425
5:00AM 5016 Max Chilton (Qualifying) +320

Sat 5/10 5017 Kamui Kobayashi (Qualifying) -470
5:00AM 5018 Marcus Ericsson (Qualifying) +345

Sat 5/10 5019 Esteban Gutierrez (Qualifying) +105
5:00AM 5020 Adrian Sutil (Qualifying) -135

Sat 5/10 5021 Romain Grosjean (Qualifying) -145
5:00AM 5022 Pastor Maldonado (Qualifying) +115

[Optional]

Quali starting soon.

Grosjean down to -125 and Maldonado down to +100 for a top 10 grid spot now.

Just added Massa to qualify Top 3 +1100, small. Got a feeling the tyres he saved in practice 3 might see him best of the rest in this session.

[Optional]

FUKK me gently! Maldonado throws it into a wall before completing 1 lap of quali.

Should have stuck with my initial thoughts that he was too STUPID to risk money on.

[MatI]

Hey stranger.

Ive missed all of the sessions up until now... not sure what exactly happened but sorry about Maldanado. Hope you get a winner with the others.

Ive taken Nico for Pole & Race win in seperate bets, but only because the odds are ridiculous for Lewis race win. Im liking the talk so far of Lewis struggling in Q but not holding out a heap of hope...

[Optional]

Maldonado top 10 was just a small late bet actually. Was kicking myself for not sticking with the early thoughts that RG was the man.

My main horse is Grosjean for the race. And I already hit my Top 10 2/1 bet on him quali. And my Guitierez > Sutil bet.

have 15 cents to win 600 bucks on Grosjean for pole still riding on this though

And massa for top 3 grid spot.

Hope you have been on holidays to have been gone so long!

[MatI]

Not sure I see what you see in Lotus but I do hope they have a good race for you!

Hope you have been on holidays to have been gone so long!

Nah mate, I wish. Just hardly any spare time lately and working like a bitch. Night to myself tonight though so im going to bloody enjoy it!

...great to see SV out early.

[Optional]

Good to see your face either way.

Was just banking on them having actually got the car working finally. The smart guys kept saying it was a good car. Only needed the engine to start working. Although I have to admit the car didn't look glued to the track.

Still loving my 25/1 on Grosjean for a top 6 though!

[Optional]

Not sure what happened to Massa

[MatI]

Not sure what happened to Massa

Not sure either. Great call on Lotus though, all he needs to do is just hold position now and you are golden. GL.

[Optional]

Thanks. I got him at 2/1 for top 10 as well so feeling good.

Great result this race already betting wise. If he holds it together will be one of my best F1 races in years. Maybe forever.

[MatI]

Intriguing instruction to Daniel Ricciardo over Red Bull team radio at the end of the session: "Remember what Charlie Whiting said about the photo".

[MatI]

If he holds it together will be one of my best F1 races in years. Maybe forever.

ill have everything crossed for you!

[Optional]

Intriguing instruction to Daniel Ricciardo over Red Bull team radio at the end of the session: "Remember what Charlie Whiting said about the photo".

I missed that. Any idea what it means?

[MatI]

not sure but keen to follow it up later. At first I was thinking it was code for something dodgy but more i think about it more i think maybe charlie just told the drivers something regarding the post qual photo shoot for top 3.

[Jmac926]

Win or Lose that Grosjean top 6 bet was a good one optional. Its been a fun one to follow as well. I bet him and Maldonado for top 6, and would have like to seen what kind of time Maldonado could have put up.

[Optional]

Win or Lose that Grosjean top 6 bet was a good one optional. Its been a fun one to follow as well. I bet him and Maldonado for top 6, and would have like to seen what kind of time Maldonado could have put up.

Maldonado may have beaten him I suspect. The way they practiced.





Here's a site that gives you live timing with sector times and a driver position track map guys:

http://f1.narezka.org/?lang=eng#

[milehigh]

Opti: With you on the Grosjean top 6 bet (also got him top 10 at +180 for a small bet). Can't wait for the H2Hs to get posted and get your expert analysis...been spot on so far!