Nailed the Manly over. Well done TG.
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updated: NRL Season 2013 51-4-41 +10.84
Round 19 2-1
Great to smash the 3unit play on Titans / Sea Eagles and watch the score rack up nicely in the first half.
One more play to finish on MNF and hopefully end the round on a high note. GLComment -
Hey guy, whatever happened to the cfl picks?Comment -
NRL Season 2013 51-4-41 +10.84
Round 19 2-1
Play #4
Rabbitohs vs Dragons UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Dragons have two solid defensive players returning for this match - Harrison & Cooper. They lack any sting in attack but should have enough grunt to stop the Rabbitohs putting on major points.. especially with GI missing and Merritt out of position. Dragons haven't hit an OVER 40 since round 10 against the Eels... so far this year they've only had 5x OVERS hit and most have been against fairly average sides like the Raiders, Titans and Eels. This one should pull up short of the OVER, have it at 34pts on the model and rolling 1x UNDER.
GL
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updated: NRL Season 2013 52-4-41 +11.79
End Round 19 3-1
Can't complain with a bounce back like that after a tough round.. Dragons and Rabbitohs game played out as expected minus the last minute try - thankfully the .5 scraped thru. Onward and upward!
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NRL Season 2013 52-4-41 +11.79
Round 20
Play #1
Cowboys vs Broncos UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
This QLD derby has a history of being tight and the trend should continue tonight. Broncos have a stack of players in new positions - Hoffman to fullback and Ben Hunt is the halfback. Cowboys are in a similar state with Morgan returning to the halfback role while Faifai replaces Graham on the wing. Broncos attack has been woeful but yet they've held up defensively against some pretty good sides and should be fired up tonight. Cowboys will have the edge and have no excuses.. expecting a total around 30 according to the model and rolling 1x UNDER. GL
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go get em thatguy.
Thanks for the tip gunna tail you again. Thanks matey.Comment -
Like the play, I'm jumping on it too, gl TG!Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 53-4-41 +12.74
Round 20 1-0
Under held on in Cowboys vs Broncos match despite a Cowboys side that didn't bother turning up.
We roll on! Posting plays for today in a few hours... GL
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Bonus CFL play (record 1-0)
Playing CFL opportunities where I see fit.. it's a market with not much liquidity and very little action from Vegas.
Bombers vs Stampeders -5.5 2x 1.95
Stampeders got a scare last week: down 24-0 in the first quarter they than came back to win the match against Montreal 28-24 with the biggest comeback in CFL history. This week should be much easier against a side that hasn't won a game at home this season. The Bombers have a great running back, but in the CFL it is all about the quarterback and they're at a huge disadvantage. Winnipeg have the fewest passing touchdowns in the league with a mere two and a shocking 74.3 efficiency rating at this position. Based on player stats in the model this could get ugly with Stampeders winning by 10+. Rolling 2x. GL
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Mate what are you doing up at this un-godly hour? It's 0410 here in Adelaide.Comment -
Thanks TGComment -
NRL Season 2013 53-4-41 +12.74
Round 20 1-0
Play #2
Dragons vs Raiders UNDER 38.5 2x 1.95
Dragons beat the Rabbitohs because they frustrated them in defense and as suggested last week they have been great at limiting attacking ability - both of other teams and their own!
St George have the lowest PPG and points against per game figure over the past 10 rounds. The Dragons vs Raiders matchups always seem to be tight but memorable games. Raiders have been unable to get things together - scoring only 14pts against the Eels when most sides have been putting on 40+ points. They'll struggle tonight and based on the model this is a low scoring 29pt affair. Rolling 2x based on this - playing UNDER 38.5 2x 1.95. GL
Play #3
Titans vs Rabbitohs OVER 42 1x 1.95
Hell hath no fury like a Rabbitohs side that was beaten the week before. Stats are all against the Titans in this one and the return of a fit Matt Kings adds to the Rabbitohs lineup. Titans are playing horrible football, the sort of football that fast backs like Merritt and King can have a field day. Both sides have a massive lineup and plenty of strike power out wide - add in the return of Bird and Myles & we have an unlikely Titians side that could actually put on some points. Rolling 1x OVER 42 for this one at 1.95. GL
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Adding:
Play #4
Tigers va Sea Eagles OVER 42 1x 1.95
No time for a writeup. Have this game at 47 on model and rolling 1x OVER. GLComment -
Well done mateComment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 55-4-43 +10.69
END Round 20 2-2
Saved a disastrous weekend with a win on MNF.. Variance proved the difference on Sat night with Dragons / Raiders OVER hurting.
Been a little unlucky recently and looking at a modest profit of around 20units for the season at this stage - predicted anyway.
Better luck next week!Comment -
Bonus CFL play (record 2-0) +2.85 UNITS
Will keep rolling with CFL plays where opportunity knocks... could be days or weeks - standby
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NRL Season 2013 55-4-43 +10.69
Round 21
Play #1
Panthers vs Roosters UNDER 40.5 2x 1.95
Panthers are without a few key plays and should cop a hiding in this match up. Roosters are also missing their share of players with Sonny Bill the obvious exclusion, he's replaced by Aubusson. This game lacks attacking players to really impact the scoreline and put it on a course for 40+. Roosters are on a high after a five game winning streak but it's been against some average opponents and they've still only managed around the 20pt mark. Panthers meanwhile have been lucky to escape some near death games recently. This one comes back to earth with a total around 32pts on the model, which makes it a 2x play for mine. GL
Play #2
Knights vs Broncos UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Both these sides have been great at keeping it tight the past few games and the Knights are without Mason and Snowden, who are replaced by two solid defensive players - Fa'alogo and Tetevano. Broncos have been useless in attack and will need to sneak over the line bu their defensive efforts. Can't see either side running away with this game and the model shows no standout side.. unless the error rate sneaks up this one comes in at 32pts making it a 1x UNDER play at 1.95. GL
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Don't know a thing about Rugby but am trying to get into it, betting on the games should help that process. Ari Gold is reason enough for me to tail you, That Guy.
BOLComment -
Loving it TG, thanks again, hope you smash it this weekend!Comment -
tailing you for some NRL action tonight.
thanks mate.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 56-4-44 +9.64
Round 21 1-1
Thought the Roosters would hand it to the Panthers but had expected them to at least show some kind of resilience.
Anyway.. time to get it back today.Comment -
Hey mate, what are your thoughts on the over in these games:
Warriors v Sharks
Parra v Manly
Titans v TigersComment -
NRL Season 2013 56-4-44 +9.64
Round 21 1-1
Play #3
Warriors vs Sharks UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Sharks away from home are shocking - winning just 33% and they'll do it tough against the Warriors. They average just 12pts away from home and will need to crack down on Warriors heavy hitters to win this one. It'll be a battle of the forwards and the Sharks will need to win that if they want to score points down the fringes.. however, don't see much of that happening in this matchup against the red hot Warriors. Have this at 34pts but the potential exists for much less given Sharks away from home track record.. rolling 1x UNDER. GL
Play #4
Eels vs Sea Eagles OVER 46 2x 1.95
Every sign points to OVER in this game - weather, stats, team avgs, matchups, refs etc..
It's hard to see anything but a Sea Eagles whitewash of the Eels and last time they played the total hit 60. Sea Eagles have been in fine form and Matai playing with lively things up after a firey encounter last time these teams met. We have the highest attacking team on PPG against the lowest attacking team PPG.. and the third best defensive team against the worst. It's a lopsided match up and model expects points to flow.. have this one at 56pts and rolling 2x OVER. GL
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With you on the eels game.NRL Season 2013 56-4-44 +9.64
Round 21 1-1
Play #3
Warriors vs Sharks UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Sharks away from home are shocking - winning just 33% and they'll do it tough against the Warriors. They average just 12pts away from home and will need to crack down on Warriors heavy hitters to win this one. It'll be a battle of the forwards and the Sharks will need to win that if they want to score points down the fringes.. however, don't see much of that happening in this matchup against the red hot Warriors. Have this at 34pts but the potential exists for much less given Sharks away from home track record.. rolling 1x UNDER. GL
Play #4
Eels vs Sea Eagles OVER 46 2x 1.95
Every sign points to OVER in this game - weather, stats, team avgs, matchups, refs etc..
It's hard to see anything but a Sea Eagles whitewash of the Eels and last time they played the total hit 60. Sea Eagles have been in fine form and Matai playing with lively things up after a firey encounter last time these teams met. We have the highest attacking team on PPG against the lowest attacking team PPG.. and the third best defensive team against the worst. It's a lopsided match up and model expects points to flow.. have this one at 56pts and rolling 2x OVER. GL
Not so sure about the Warriors, I expect the Sharkies to score some points today.Comment -
Johnson misses 2 and Carney 1 today and both teams were guilty of bombing tries, especially the Warriors near the end to tie the game up.
It just seems to me that apart from the top 4 teams, the rest struggle to get up the following week after pulling off an upset.
Let's go Parra!
Hope you sweep tonight buddy!Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 57-5-44 +10.59
Round 21 2-1-1
Frustrating PUSH on the 2x unit play when the OVER looked great with 20mins to play.. Hopefully everyone got the 46 before it went up to 46.5 - the win % on that number was drastically less. Always something to keep in mind when you go totals shopping.Comment -
Bonus CFL play (record 2-0) +2.85 UNITS
Play #3
Lions vs Bombers +13 1x 1.95
Has dropped to 11pts in some markets but we're still getting value.. getting in on action early in case it drops more tomorrow. Bombers have faced some tough opposition the last few games - getting badly beaten by Toronto and Calgary last week. Those teams are talented and should go all the way, however the BC Lions are just average.. they've only beaten another side by a margin of 11+ once this season and it was a bruised and battered Edmonton side. The Bombers have a new quarterback this week who is fit and ready to impress. They should keep this game much tighter and have a good record against BC.
Rolling Bombers +13 at 1x 1.95. See if we can keep this CFL streak alive where opportunity knocks. GL
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Adding:
Play #5
Raiders vs Storm OVER 42 1x 1.95
No time for a writeup - away on work trip. Should be a high scoring match as both sides can lay on the points and Storm has been good at letting tries in.
Got this one at 48pts and rolling 1x OVER. GlComment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 58-5-44 +11.54
Round 21 3-1-1
Great win yesterday with the Raiders vs Storm OVER well & truly hitting!
Time to end the week with a final play on MNF.
Play #6
Dragons vs Bulldogs UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Dragons have done well to frustrate other team's attacking ability - keeping the Rabbitohs at only 3 tries and averaging the lowest points against for a team playing the current top 8. We also know the Dragons attack is patchy which makes this UNDER look great. The Dogs are coming off a win vs the Eels and a BYE.. hardly great leadup for the Dragons.
Have this match at 32pts on the model and rolling 1x UNDER. GL
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