great picks
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updated: NRL Season 2012 54-39 +16.77
Round 12 3-0
Great start to the round with the books overestimating the 'rain effect' in Melbourne and the total going 20+ on the books. By kick off the rain was barely in play and the Storm pushed on for an easy win - giving us the total / ML plays. Rabbitohs total never looked in doubt and as predicted GI / Merritt were way too strong up the middle.
Working on a few plays for Saturday as we push on for Round 12. GLComment -
Thanks for the plays and writeups.
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NRL Season 2012 54-39 +16.77
Round 12 3-0
Play #4
Knights vs Titans UNDER 39.5 2x 1.95
We have the two lowest scoring teams in the NRL facing off this afternoon. Both average just over 14pts per game but the real key is the defensive play that will be in action tonight. With Scott Prince missing the Titans weapon becomes defense and they've let in just under 12pts when Prince is MIA. Both of these teams should play tight tonight and fatigue should be less of an issue given SOO players have another day's rest. Knights and Titans are also both coming off the bye from last week and should be fresh.
Have this game at just 28pts and locking this in for 2x at 1.95.
GL
Play #5
Dragons vs Eels OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
These sides have been playing shocking football over the past few weeks and for this game to go UNDER we need both sides to fix their defensive worries.. I don't think that happens. Eels have given up an average of 29pts per game which is bad enough and the Dragons will be out for blood tonight after losing their last 3. We should get a total around 42pts and if the sloppy football continues expect a much larger total. Eels should still have points in them and expecting Hayne to have a blinder after Origin.
Playing this for 1x 1.90
GL
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Too bad that most of your picks are totals... We don't have totals for NRL in the U.S...Comment -
I don't have totals on 5dimes~ Pinny is no longer accepting U.S. players.Comment -
Really like the under in the Knights/Titans game. GLComment -
Prince is playing for the Titans.. F-k me!!
Was ruled out in late mail.. Changes everything - would have played the Titans pts heavily if I'd have known that. No we're relying on Knights defense for the under which is scary. Hope it hitsComment -
yeah i didnt know prince was playing either. if he was i would have been all over the titans.Comment -
Woohooo! Cash! Yeah baby made a 3 unit play on this.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 55-40 +17.67
Round 12 4-1
Cashed the 2unit UNDER on Knights / Titans which stayed under even despite the upset and Prince playing. Dragons / Eels OVER looked good early but quickly became a battle of two teams that looked like they couldn't care less.
We grind on tomorrow..... GLComment -
NRL Season 2012 55-40 +17.67
Round 12 4-1
Play #6
Panthers vs Manly -9.5 1x 2.16
Can't ignore the model on this one. There is nothing to suggest the Sea Eagles don't run away with it for this game. Origin players will be fresh and Manly will dominate the fringes in this game. Last time they met Manly won 30-0 at Brookvale, it'll be closer this time around but there is nothing in the model to suggest the Panthers can win. Sea Eagles are looking strong again after a few early losses and should put this one to bed in a big way.
Rolling with -9.5 points on this one at 2.15. GL
Play #7
Tigers vs Cowboys OVER 42.5 1x 1.90
Avg points for both sides over the past few rounds indicates a strong over for this game. The Tigers style of football suits the Cowboys and this clash should be an attacking game with lots of points. Previous matches between these sides have hit 50-60 points and after the bye last week both sides should be fresh. Tigers have started playing great footy and if they continue today we'll see the OVER hit. Have this game at 46points.. GL
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Tigers/Cowboys total now 43.5 at @1.80. Good luck today.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 56-41 +17.57
Round 12 5-2
1-1 day with the OVER cashing in the Tigers / Cowboys match. Unfortunately the Panthers jagged a win out of nowhere and was just one of those games to forget.... Still well in front for the round with one more play to come:
Play #8
Bulldogs vs Roosters OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Have this game pinned exactly on 38points but a few changes for both teams should provide a weaker defensive line and push this total OVER. Trent Hodkinson returns for the Dogs and will give us a few more points but the big bonus is the fringes for both these sides which is weaker then usual - Goodwin and Kenny-Dowall are MIA and have been solid in defence. Pritchard and Morris on the left hand side should have a field day and if Ben Barba is on song this play could cash early.
Bulldogs will be confident coming off a win last week against the Sharks and should provide at least 26 points on my model.. Roosters have been good at leaking points but should at least be able to give us 12-16 points. Last time these teams met it was a shoot out with 60points racked up - not sure that will happen tomorrow night but we should get enough to push this over. No rain forecast which makes this play look better.
Rolling for 1x 1.95. Total opened at that number before dropping to 1.80 and moving back up so it could bounce around a little before kick off.
GL.. let's bring it home after a great round so far
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on the over as well. BOL go the doggiesComment -
Another Top Class performance! Great stuff mate
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End Round 12: NRL Season 2012 57-41 +18.52
Round 12 6-2
Great result for the end of Round 12 with Dogs / Roosters over hitting - beat the closer by over 3points and model spot on with points for both sides.
Up over 5units for the round
GL with your plays till Friday!Comment -
Was on spurs -5.5 big today so cheers for getting me out of trouble again on the punt TG...
Love ya workComment -
NRL Season 2012 57-41 +18.52
Round 13
Some great looking games ahead for this weekend... GL
Play #1
Sea Eagles vs Dragons UNDER 35.5 1x 1.95
Saw this line debut at 36.5 at one book before falling to 32.5.. I'm jumping on this total while it's still around and would expect it to close around 34.5 or even lower.. however I wouldn't play anything lower then 34.5
My model has this at 34 points but the real value is in the lack of both teams to put points on the board. Both the Dragons and Sea Eagles were woeful last week and looked clueless in attack. Really can't see both teams improving to the point where we have a try fest. Defence will be key this week and should hold up the UNDER - Dragons and Sea Eagles are the 2nd / 3rd best defensive sides in the comp. They're winning games because of rock solid defence and it should continue yet again. Williams boys and Matai missing will help the UNDER cause as will Soward being off the boil for the Dragons again (hopefully).
Locking this in for 1x 1.95 GL
Play #2
Titans vs Cowboys UNDER 40.5 2x 1.95
Saw this open at 44.5 and was ready to lock it in for a big play but it had already dropped when I got home.
Titans have been great for the UNDER this year and love playing against the Cowboys who play a similar style of football. Prince and Thurston generally read each other pretty well and control the points coming from the middle. Titans defense has been great this year and they're not the same team that got lapped at the start of the season.
The real bonus will be the Gold Coast weather - it has been raining non stop for the past day and that is set to continue tomorrow. The stadium is in "flood mode" to mitigate the amount of water on the field... yet we're still seeing totals that don't seem to take this into account. Maybe it clears up for the game.. but if not we have a very heavy track and controlled low-scoring football.
Either way the UNDER looks the goods and the only way this goes over is via complete meltdown from one side's defense. Titans have a strong forward pack that should hold out the Cowboys to some extent. I'd expect to see both sides turn up - Cowboys out for revenge after being thumped by the Titans in round 1 and the Titans on a high after winning a few in a row. Have this game at 37 points and much less if the rain continues.
Rolling with 2x at 1.95
GL
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Titans vs Cowboys line has just dropped to 38 at my book. Assume this is due to continued rain on the Gold Coast.. More heavy falls expected tonight which makes the UNDER look even betterComment -
Down to 36.5! Glad i jumped on it this morning. GLComment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 59-41 +21.37
Round 13 2-0
Can't ask for a better start to the round with both of these games going UNDER.
The crucial line was 40.5 for the Cowboys / Titans which disappeared this afternoon.. Titans defence went to sleep after they won the game but the UNDER was still good.
Onward to some strong plays t/m GLComment -
What are you leaning towards today? I like tigers -5.5. Raiders were pretty ordinary last week against rabbits and they have dugan at 5/8 today. Don't see him as a 5/8, more of a line breaker runner of the ball. I woulda locked in the over for this match but its wet weather and likely to rain in canberra today.
As for the other match I thought the bulldogs were very impressive last week and even though the rabbits smashed the raiders, they dropped the ball a lot. Probably gonna go with doggies +1.5 todayComment -
Hey mate.. still working thru some totals figures for this afternoon.
I agree with the Dogs - they looked good against the Roosters and Rabbitohs were a little sloppy in parts. They've also haven't played any in form teams over the past 3 weeks.. Raiders, Dragons (lucky to get a win over) and a bye.
Has been raining all day in Sydney so you'd expect a game of the forwards tonight and Rabbitohs have looked a little flat in that department.
I'm not 100% sure about the Tigers -5.5 in Canberra. Bounce back factor for the Raiders has a pretty good record and even if they haven't beaten teams after a bad loss they have shocked them (almost rolling Manly at Brookvale) and piling on the points against the Eels. But based on last week you'd expect the Tigers to win this by a big margin... just don't think it'll be that easy for the Tiges.
GL with the plays
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NRL Season 2012 59-41 +21.37
Round 13 2-0
Play#3
Raiders vs Tigers OVER 42.5 1x 2.05
Price on this total has been rising ever since rain has been forecast tonight. However the pounding that Sydney is copping hasn't reached Canberra and there should only be light rain tonight which shouldn't have too much of an impact on the total. Both these teams have been struggling in defence and let in easy tries. Expect this game to be a try-fest with a determined Raiders outfit out to prove they can win games. Tigers are expected to win this game but don't they'll do it without giving up some points.
Raiders style of play will be dictated by the Tigers and if they play expansive football like usual then this game goes well and truly over. Model has this game at 46points which makes it a play for me.
Locking in 1x at 2.05 GL
Play #4
Rabbitohs vs Bulldogs UNDER 36.5 1x 1.83
Torrential rain in Sydney has driven this total down and whilst it's an extremely low figure for these sides we're still getting some value. Last time these teams met in fine weather the total was just 30. This time we have the same teams with better defensive averages on wet ground. It should be a battle of the forwards and game that slowly grinds away. The Bulldogs have done well scoring points on the fringes but the weather should slow them down today - wouldn't expect to see easy tries on the edges like last week against the Roosters. Have this game at 36 on my model (not taking into account the rain).. which means this play is dependent on the rain which will continue tonight. In wet conditions the real total should be around 28-32 which makes this a lock for me.
Rolling with the UNDER for 1x 1.85
GL tonight
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Thanks for the writeups solid reasoningComment -
Adding:NRL Season 2012 59-41 +21.37
Round 13 2-0
Play#3
Raiders vs Tigers OVER 42.5 1x 2.05
Price on this total has been rising ever since rain has been forecast tonight. However the pounding that Sydney is copping hasn't reached Canberra and there should only be light rain tonight which shouldn't have too much of an impact on the total. Both these teams have been struggling in defence and let in easy tries. Expect this game to be a try-fest with a determined Raiders outfit out to prove they can win games. Tigers are expected to win this game but don't they'll do it without giving up some points.
Raiders style of play will be dictated by the Tigers and if they play expansive football like usual then this game goes well and truly over. Model has this game at 46points which makes it a play for me.
Locking in 1x at 2.05 GL
Play #4
Rabbitohs vs Bulldogs UNDER 36.5 1x 1.83
Torrential rain in Sydney has driven this total down and whilst it's an extremely low figure for these sides we're still getting some value. Last time these teams met in fine weather the total was just 30. This time we have the same teams with better defensive averages on wet ground. It should be a battle of the forwards and game that slowly grinds away. The Bulldogs have done well scoring points on the fringes but the weather should slow them down today - wouldn't expect to see easy tries on the edges like last week against the Roosters. Have this game at 36 on my model (not taking into account the rain).. which means this play is dependent on the rain which will continue tonight. In wet conditions the real total should be around 28-32 which makes this a lock for me.
Rolling with the UNDER for 1x 1.85
GL tonight
Play #5
Raiders +6.5 vs Tigers 0.5x 1.92
No time for a big writeup. Josh Dugan in the halves will either be a great call or a complete disaster. Raiders will get form eventually and they played well earlier against the Tigers.
Locking this in or 0.5 at 1.92
GLComment -
Adding:
Play #6
Raiders vs Tigers OVER 36.5 2x 1.95
No write up. Out at the moment. Reasonings above.. This is a great total figure.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 50-43 +20.77
Round 13 3-2
Over was the right play on Raider / Tigers despite the home team's collapse and it was great to cash it on the updated total
The Raiders 0.5 play was a bad one and unlucky with the Rabbitohs / Bulldogs.. but you can't win all the time.
A profitable weekend so far with more plays to come tomorrow. GLComment -
NRL Season 2012 50-43 +20.77
Round 13 3-2
Play #6
Warriors vs Storm -4 1x 1.96
It's rare to see a line like this for the form team of the competition, so when the opportunity presents itself to grab the Storm for just -4 grab it. Warriors would love a win today at home but they've been very patchy so far this year (nothing new). Storm have lost just once this season and the Warriors have lost just the once at home. The Storm's big five should be too much for the Warriors to handle and coming off the bye could be a bad thing - we saw how the State of Origin players backed up last week after everyone predicted they'd be too fatigued. Todd Lowrie will be fired up to have a big 150th game for the Storm and the club won't take this game lying down. We're getting great odds because the Warriors have a history of beating the Storm - but it doesn't happen today. This time they're at full strength and well aware of how dangerous the Kiwis can be.
No value in the total.. so locking in Storm -4 at 1.96 GL
Play #7
Broncos vs Knights UNDER 36.5 1x 1.98
Knights weapon under Wayne Bennett has been defence and against his old club the coach will come prepared. Defence is the only way the Knights can win and we've seen them control points very well after being flogged the week before. For this game to go over 36.5 we need an even match or a complete meltdown from the Knights.. even so, I don't think we see the Broncos win by 26+ points. Both these teams have flagged defence as needing work this week, but the reality is the stats are pretty damn good for both sides - 17points given away on average per game. Model has this game at 34points which is bang on the averages for these too.. We should see a scoreline of about 24-10 but I think it'll actually be lower given it's been raining constantly in Brisbane for the last few days. Ball control and defence should be the focus, giving the UNDER an edge for this game.
Locking it in 1x 1.98
GL
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