Thatguy's NRL Plays

[Paluche69]

I'm on the Warriors too!
BOL guys!

[angelo63]

After last weeks incredible loss on the under with the Cowboys Variance strikes back with Konrad Hurrell taking us over in the 79th minute , great work TG. How are you leaning in the SOO , If NSW are to win the need to score 26 points , The over looks like the way to go there?

[SaffaCappa]

Great call on the Tigers Warriors over ... by a ball hair but will take it

[kingsr]

Fukn stupid warriors! Im having a break till origin. Gl all

[That Guy]

After last weeks incredible loss on the under with the Cowboys Variance strikes back with Konrad Hurrell taking us over in the 79th minute , great work TG. How are you leaning in the SOO , If NSW are to win the need to score 26 points , The over looks like the way to go there?

Yes.. We were due some positive variance!
Great to cash it last night - hopefully tonight's big play goes as predicted.
Haven't had the chance to look at Origin yet but the OVER does look good.
GL with your plays mate

[That Guy]

Under has dropped to 1.68 at my book which is nice!

[That Guy]

Utter disbelief looking at the Cowboys total.. WTF?!?
Penalty count is killing this game and giving easy meters against some garbage defense by both sides.
Time to enjoy Sat night and focus on some wins tomorrow

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #3
Dragons vs Rabbitohs UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Have this game at 36 but remove Inglis, Taylor, Creagh, Weyman, Merrin and we should be looking at a total in the low 30's. Dragons have been looking very ordinary but with Soward returning this week things should improve. Rabbitohs defense shouldn't suffer too much with Merritt moving to fullback to replace GI. This game will either be a Rabbitohs white wash or a very close low-scoring match - cannot see either of these resulting in the total going over 40.5
Locking this in for 1x GL

Adding:

Play #4
Sea Eagles ML vs Roosters 2x 1.48
Had to lock this in. Roosters have a poor track record against the Sea Eagles and at Brookvale they haven't won for the last eight years. Foran and Cherry-Evans are extremely deadly and should be hard to beat. Roosters defence has been shocking and despite losing only 1 player to Origin compared to Manly's 4 - the Sea Eagles still have the edge with many key players remaining. In-form Pearce missing for the Roosters is a major loss and I don't seem Mortimer at halfback filling that gap in his first game.
Have Manly winning this by 12pts and see value in 2x 1.48
GL

[That Guy]

Adding 1x unit to the Rabbitohs / Dragons UNDER 40.5
total of 2x unit on the UNDER

With steady rain in Sydney we should get a much slower game

[Sol]

Relief to have the under hit! Imagine two teams actually not giving away a point or penalty every minute.

[That Guy]

Relief to have the under hit! Imagine two teams actually not giving away a point or penalty every minute.

Variance is on our side!
Great to play / watch a game that isn't a penalty fest

[That Guy]

Updated: NRL Season 2012 50-39 +11.92
Round 11 3-1

Took a hit with the Cowboys match on Saturday night but in the positive with 2x solid plays for Sunday's games. Manly grind out a win against the Roosters as predicted and the Dragons / Rabbitohs UNDER holds on to cash 2 units.
One more play for Round 11 until all energy is focused on Origin game 1
GL

Play #5
Bulldogs vs Sharks UNDER 38.5 1x 1.90
The UNDER has started dropping and I jumped on as soon as I can. Bulldogs have been struggling to find points anywhere and the Sharks defence won't disappear overnight with Gallen & Carney MIA. This is the team that last week held the Storm to just 10points despite having the blow torch applied and line defence tested. A lot of people are death riding the Sharks this week but we've waited a long time for them to lose and it hasn't happened.
While this isn't a ML play on the Sharks, if their defence holds up we cash the UNDER.. simple. The added bonus of play maker Carney missing also helps our cause and while Hodkinson may start for the Bulldogs he can't single score all their points. Model has this game at 28points and I'm rolling with it 1x on the UNDER at 1.90.
Will re-consider adding an extra unit on this play given there is 10pts buffer. Will depend on weather in Sydney (rain is probable) and the inclusion of Hodkinson - if 100% confirmed will lay off the extra units.
GL

[binomial]

GL

Thanks for sharing your picks you have been calling it very nicely.

What factors do you consider in your model if you don't mind me asking?

[benrama]

TG, I lean strongly to the under too, but this feels like one of those MNF traps. I hate watching MNF cheering for an under too so instead I'm making a small play on either team to win by 1-12 @ $1.79

BOL

[NittanyLionsFan]

Under??? HAHAHAHAHAH YOU LOSE!!!!! Fkn loser.

Keep donating to this community, bro. It's all we ask, I promise. It's all we ask.

We appreciate it my man.

[easysaid]

You sir are an idiot total was 32..

[hawley]

Under??? HAHAHAHAHAH YOU LOSE!!!!! Fkn loser.

Keep donating to this community, bro. It's all we ask, I promise. It's all we ask.

We appreciate it my man.

This is incredibly embarrassing.

[easysaid]

Typical lions fan, guessing scores halfway through the game.

[brettels]

Under??? HAHAHAHAHAH YOU LOSE!!!!! Fkn loser.

Keep donating to this community, bro. It's all we ask, I promise. It's all we ask.

We appreciate it my man.

The under WON! How does it feel to be SBR's newest dumb fukk!?

[That Guy]

Under??? HAHAHAHAHAH YOU LOSE!!!!! Fkn loser.

Keep donating to this community, bro. It's all we ask, I promise. It's all we ask.

We appreciate it my man.

I'm not sure why you come in here trying to start shit when we've never seen / heard of you.
Thoughts / comments are always welcome but judging by your post tonight I'm not sure you have much to add.
GL on your plays 'my man' but maybe stick to a code that you understand next time or at least wait until the final siren before posting.
Thanks for the humor tonight though - it's appreciated.

[That Guy]

Updated end of Round 11:
NRL Season 2012 51-39 +12.82
Round 11 4-1

Bulldogs defence looked very solid and helped the UNDER cash despite what could have been a wipe out game tonight.
Good end to Round 11 after a few interesting games this weekend.
Still don't have any leans on Origin.. been too busy looking at NRL sides / working late this week. Be keen to see what leans everyone else has and might make a play closer to the game.
GL this week

[That Guy]

TG, I lean strongly to the under too, but this feels like one of those MNF traps. I hate watching MNF cheering for an under too so instead I'm making a small play on either team to win by 1-12 @ $1.79

BOL

MNF continues to be a bitch this year.. would have taken 1-12 win as well, game had all the signs of being a tight one.
BOL this week mate

[Crowing Capers]

WTF !!! Nittany you Stupid fukkk. Not the smartest degenerate born are you ?? The unders cashed you peanut

TG your record stands for itself mate. I added Nadal to the unders tonight in a multi for a juicy collect.
Cheers mate. Keep grinding these bookie pricks...

Could not possibly go past Qld in origin. Take the -5.5 and pound the fuk out of that. Good punting lads

[That Guy]

WTF !!! Nittany you Stupid fukkk. Not the smartest degenerate born are you ?? The unders cashed you peanut

TG your record stands for itself mate. I added Nadal to the unders tonight in a multi for a juicy collect.
Cheers mate. Keep grinding these bookie pricks...

Could not possibly go past Qld in origin. Take the -5.5 and pound the fuk out of that. Good punting lads

Books begging for some NSW action with them +6. Just can't go past QLD.. the more I look at them the more I like them for a big score.

[That Guy]

State of Origin Game 1 (side plays - not counted in NRL total)

No time for a big writeup.. GL

Play #1
QLD first to score 2x 1.75
In the last 7 games QLD has scored first and they have an experienced side who know each other's plays well. Expect them to combine for the 1st try.

Play #2
Total OVER 36.5 1x 1.80
Dry ground, no crowd advantage for either team and some new players for NSW. Expect a few line breaks and some catch up footy.
No models for the total but both teams have gun players that can score points. Need at least 2-3 tries from the Blues for this to hit and we should get it.
GL

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 51-39 +12.82
Round 12

Some very good looking games on the board tonight and we're getting value with totals. Had good results after Origin games with totals in the past and hope that continues tonight. GL

Play #1
Storm vs Broncos OVER 32.5 2x 1.95
Jump on this number at Sportsbet if you can still get it. We're getting great value here for two sides that will be missing key players and heavily fatigued. Baby Broncos will fire up but lack defensive depth with Thaiday and Hodges missing - both work horses who plug holes and shut down points. Last time they met the total was 32 with both sides at full strength and tonight the total should be around 36-38. Expecting wet conditions tonight in Melbourne, but even so this is amazing value at 32pts with both teams below par.
Locking it in for 2x 1.95. GL

Play #2
Storm ML vs Broncos 2x 1.55
Don't normally play totals and ML, but this is too good. Storm have the edge in all three key positions tonight and the big men should back up well enough to win the game. Even if they didn't Storm ML would still be the play. This side will be fired up to win after losing their last match and the baby Broncos simply are not strong enough to challenge the Storm tonight at home.
GL

Play #3
Rabbitohs vs Raiders OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Have this total at 44 points which makes it a strong play tonight. Merritt and Inglis are back in the side together and should pile on the points - the totals when these two play are mucher higher then normal. Expect a big game from the Rabbitohs who have raised the intensity for tonight saying it's a "must win game" and they need a convincing win. Raiders haven't been so good for points away from home but tonight all we need is 2-3 tries from the Green Machine for this to cash. The free flowing and expansive football the Rabbitohs have been playing should favour the Raiders who struggle for points against heavily structured play.
Playing this for 1x GL

[hawley]

total down to 31.5 at pinny. Is it hailing in Melbourne or something?

[That Guy]

total down to 31.5 at pinny. Is it hailing in Melbourne or something?

Torrential rain & localised flooding.. still think the Broncos will cope. They do quite well in the rain and hopefully it settles down a little later tonight.
Rabbitohs total now 42.5 at Sportsbet as well - they're all moving!

[MatI]

total down to 31.5 at pinny. Is it hailing in Melbourne or something?

It's been bucketing down since early morning, and still going strong.

check this out - http://www.theage.com.au/environment...525-1z8i7.html

[MatI]

Sorry TG, didn't see you responded while I was writing a reply. The rain isn't expected to slow down until about 8pm.

[That Guy]

Sorry TG, didn't see you responded while I was writing a reply. The rain isn't expected to slow down until about 8pm.

Yeah looks nasty in Melbourne... not sure it deserves a total of 30.5 that Sportsbet just posted?!
Have a feeling that will quickly rise again after it gets pounded

[MatI]

Agreed, total looks too low now.

The heavy rain has stopped, just light drizzle now, but it is blowing a gale.

[garygroundwork]

good work tonight mate.

[Crowing Capers]

TG, you are a very sharp NRL punter mate. great calls tonight.
tailed your tips hard tonight and cannot appreciate the mail enough.

keep up the great work bro...

[MatI]

Easy work with the Melbourne Storm over.