Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 45-35 +13.18
Round 10 2-0

Great to start the weekend off with a few wins.. we grind on!

Play#3
Warriors vs Roosters OVER 41.5 1x 1.98
Saw this going at 40.5 earlier but missed the window.. if you can get this total for less juice but OVER 40 or so then take it.
This game should finish around 44pts which doesn't give us much leeway, however the books have set this total high for a reason. The potential for many more points makes the OVER a play for me. The Warriors will be fired up for a win against the Roosters after being humiliated against them in Round 5. Steve Lyons the ref also loves blowing penalties and should help both teams make some easy metres.
Last time the total hit 34 without the Warriors ever looking like winning, this time around they should be much better. NZ goal kicking has been spot on and both teams have a backline that can lay on some easy points.
I'm rolling with this one for 1x at 1.98 but if you can find better lock it in
GL

Play #4
Knights vs Cowboys UNDER 38.5 1x 1.98
Laying on another play against the public money tonight. Knights are heavily favoured to take a belting from the Cowboys and the OVER play is being juiced at my book. Looking purely at stats and models this game barely hits 34pts which makes it a play based on that alone. However, add in missing Knights strike power like Buderus, Edwards, Gidley etc.. and we've got a team that will struggle to score any points.
Tonight we should see the Knights in 100% defense mode to try and shut down a full strength Cowboys side. It happened last week when they kept the Roosters scoreless in the first half and we hit the UNDER. A low scoring game will be the only thing keeping the Knights in this match and they will be desperate to stop any leaking points.
Rolling with this one for 1x at 1.98. Have seen it elsewhere for U40.5 at 1.90.. but confident to grab it at U38.5 for more juice.
GL

[Degenerate]

Sick ending to the cowboys game!

[angelo63]

Why did Chechin blow time off with 52 seconds to go when neither team had binded together to form a scrum, everyone wanted the game to end , more so us on the under.....the events that followed that led to the try that knocked us of the under were as they say "variance"......Great weekend so far mate, I have had some good wins including the Titans at 4.10, This game would have kept the weekend strolling along perfect..Good Luck tomorrow, I'm heading out to the Raiders Eels match and at this stage have no lean either way.

[benrama]

I was on the under too - just sickening! Was on broncos on Friday night too - one of those weekends.

Cronulla only play for the rest of the round for me

[Sol]

Not much can be said about the Cowboys ending. Great call on the Warriors/Roosters over - Price dropped to $1.80 by kickoff. Curious to see how you feel about the Storm game, the total to me seems set a bit low at 36.5.

[That Guy]

Not much can be said about the Cowboys ending. Great call on the Warriors/Roosters over - Price dropped to $1.80 by kickoff. Curious to see how you feel about the Storm game, the total to me seems set a bit low at 36.5.

Yep. Just one of those games. Wasn't watching but saw the score at 79mins at thought we had it.
Damn.
Still looking at today's matches. Books have the Sharks / Storm as a tight one, which may be the right call given last time they met the total was only 22. However with Gallen missing and Carney keen to set the world on fire there should be more points in it.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 46-36 +13.16
Round 10 3-1

Was looking to make an OVER play on Eels / Raiders but can only get 44.5 at my book - which makes it a no play. At that number almost makes it an UNDER play but I'm not confident in either Raiders or Eels defense to back them.

Play #5
Sharks vs Storm OVER 38 1x 1.85
Normally these teams are solid on the UNDER but looking at the model this game should end up around 42 points. Last time they met the total was 22 in Melbourne, but that was last year and things have changed. Both teams will be keen to impress and the Sharks will need to score points to win this game. Storm PPG average is sitting at 32points alone and all we need is the Sharks to put on a few tries for the OVER to cash.
Playing this 1x at 1.85.. GL

[MrXYZ]

Good luck today. The Cowboys under is the kind of play that cashes 99% of the time, when was the last time you saw a team string together 4 kicks to score a try in the 80th minute...

I may pass on today's action, though leaning over 43.5 in the Parra/Raiders game.

[That Guy]

Good luck today. The Cowboys under is the kind of play that cashes 99% of the time, when was the last time you saw a team string together 4 kicks to score a try in the 80th minute...

I may pass on today's action, though leaning over 43.5 in the Parra/Raiders game.

Hope you took the OVER in Raiders / Eels match. Kicking myself for not taking it at 44.5 which looked a little high from my calculations.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 46-37 +12.16
Round 10 3-2

Disappointed that I didn't play the OVER on Raiders / Eels today. Instead had faith in the Storm to continue to lay on the points.. took Sharks + just before kick off but not counting that because it wasn't posted.
Looking at a big play tomorrow night to end out the round.
GL

[benrama]

Sharks was my strongest play of the weekend, good to finish on a high note. I'm almost certainly going to play Panthers tomorrow night and probably the under too - interested to see your leans TG.

[kingsr]

I hope somehow the Panthers can win...fuk i hate the dragons!

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 46-37 +12.16
Round 10 3-2

Play #7
Panthers vs Dragons UNDER 38.5 1x 2.05
Both these teams are struggling to put points on the board and average only 14pts each per game. We should see a bounce back from the Dragons after last weeks shocking performance and a match around 32pts total. Panther's coach Cleary this week has worked heavily on defense at every training session and flagged it as key to winning this game. They'll need it.. for a team that only puts on 14pts on average they leak 25pts (avg) per game - second only to the Eels with the worst defense in the league.
This play relies on some form of defense from the Panthers. It should hold up this week against a Dragons side that has looked somewhat flat and systematic. Can't see either of these sides going on a scoring frenzy without a complete defensive collapse and I'm backing the Panthers & Dragons to keep this tight. Bring on a flat footed lifeless game that these teams are capable of!
Locking this in for the great price of 1x 2.05
GL

Play #8
Panthers vs Dragons ML 2x 1.35
Dragons look better in almost every position for this game and should have the edge needed to secure a win. Last week should have been the wake up call they needed and I really can't see the Panthers doing to get them across the line. Dragons should have much more strike power out wide and take this one out.

GL

[benrama]

Can't believe the line is 38.5 to be honest. Without Jennings Panthers are lifeless, witness them against the Tigers. The only concern for me is a blow out to the saints and them lazing on defense but it's worth the risk at the price and line offered.

It will be bloody freezing tonight too, Sydney feels like Antarctica today with the wind, should also help the under.

Wanted to back the panthers but the line has come in to -8 now and I hate putting my money on shit teams.

BOL tonight mate

[hawley]

Soward is out.

[benrama]

Gotcha - that would explain the drop. Probably makes life a little tougher for the under ...

[rumple]

This Dragon team is dreaful, horrible penalties and dumb errors.

[jididii]

Hey!

New to NRL, how does a game end a draw? 0 draws this season.

Jididii

[jididii]

Just looked it up on wikipedia, it says:

If after two halves of play, each consisting of forty minutes, the two teams are drawing, a draw may be declared, or the game may enter extra time under the golden point rule, depending on the relevant competition's format.

So can someone tell me if todays game could have ended a draw?

Jididii

[kingsr]

After the 80 minutes of normal time is played, if the scores are level, both teams will enter golden point which is 2x 5 minute halves. The first team to score wins in extra time. If no team scores in the 10 min of extra time, then the game is declared a draw and both teams awarded 1 point for their effort.

[Sol]

Just looked it up on wikipedia, it says:

If after two halves of play, each consisting of forty minutes, the two teams are drawing, a draw may be declared, or the game may enter extra time under the golden point rule, depending on the relevant competition's format.

So can someone tell me if todays game could have ended a draw?

Jididii

Yes, if in the extra time period (10 minutes) neither team was able to score, then the game would be result in a draw.

[kingsr]

From a gambling perspective, if the game ends in a draw, the pool is split in half. So you will be paid half the value of your ticket.

Draws are rare in league because of the field goal which we saw tonight.

[ThaBigG]

Loving your picks bro!! Thanks for the under!

[That Guy]

updated:
NRL Season 2012 47-38 +11.11
Round 10 4-3
Extremely frustrating end to the round with the Dragons looking flat footed and toothless (to say the least).. so many missed opportunities. Great to cash the UNDER which looked solid all game..
That old chestnut '"variance" killed 2 plays this weekend that could have gone either way. 1 pt difference in tonight's game and the last minute try in the 80th minute of Cowboys game shutting down what could have been an extra +2 unit profit.
Next week will be very interesting as we approach State of Origin with players missing. Laying off plays on teams during this time and concentrating on totals. Currently looking at past totals during past Origin periods and seeing if there are any trends / usable data.
Good luck this week with your plays

[benrama]

Under was my easiest nrl cash of the year - sometimes it really is that easy ... can't believe how inept st george look this year at times

[hawley]

Is this a golden weekend to ride a few unders provided the lines are reasonable?

A few sides missing key attacking pieces.

[That Guy]

Under was my easiest nrl cash of the year - sometimes it really is that easy ... can't believe how inept st george look this year at times

good work man
be interesting to see how the Dragons line up this weekend.. looked absolutely shocking the last 2x games

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 47-38 +11.11

Back to the action for another week. Expect some different results and totals this weekend with players missing for State of Origin.
Good luck on your plays!

Play #1
Tigers vs Warriors OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
Should be the game of the round with Robbie Farah the only player missing due to State of Origin. Tigers will be fired up playing at Leichhardt Oval in front of a big home crowd and we should see a free-flowing game with plenty of passing. Benji and Lawrence moving to halfback and 5/8 positions will create room to move down the centre. Warriors are the 3rd best attacking to side in the comp and although they have been playing poorly away from home this one should go over. Model has it at 44pts without taking into account Farah and Ropati missing, however I think both these players missing hurts the defense more then it does attack.
Positional changes within the Tigers should mean more points for the Warriors, who are already averaging 24pts a game. Rolling with the OVER for 1x at 1.95 for the first match of the round. GL

[That Guy]

Play #2
Cowboys vs Panthers UNDER 42.5 3x 1.95
This is the play of the round so far and will be the biggest of the season so far. Without Origin players missing we're looking at a total of 38 and without play makers this should fall well short. Cowboys are missing Thurston, Scott, Tamou and Tate; Panthers are without Lewis & Jennings and Smith.
We have two second string sides hitting it out in what should be a battle of the forwards. Matty Bowen should do enough to guide the Cowboys around the park but points will be at a premium. The game should really be won by a strong Nth QLD forward pack but without Thurston this side looks completely different. Panthers defense has held up very well within the last weeks and that should continue Saturday night - they've only let in an average of 14pts over the last 3 games but look flat in attack.
Everything points to this game being an extremely strong play for the UNDER, especially with rain now being forecast for Townsville on Saturday night. The only danger is a complete defensive collapse by the Panthers.. even still, without Thurston, Scott, Tamou and Tate, they really shouldn't be able to cash in on the Panther's misery too much.
Rolling with this game in a big way. 3x for the UNDER 42.5 at 1.95
GL

[That Guy]

Play #2
Cowboys vs Panthers UNDER 42.5 3x 1.95
This is the play of the round so far and will be the biggest of the season so far. Without Origin players missing we're looking at a total of 38 and without play makers this should fall well short. Cowboys are missing Thurston, Scott, Tamou and Tate; Panthers are without Lewis & Jennings and Smith.
We have two second string sides hitting it out in what should be a battle of the forwards. Matty Bowen should do enough to guide the Cowboys around the park but points will be at a premium. The game should really be won by a strong Nth QLD forward pack but without Thurston this side looks completely different. Panthers defense has held up very well within the last weeks and that should continue Saturday night - they've only let in an average of 14pts over the last 3 games but look flat in attack.
Everything points to this game being an extremely strong play for the UNDER, especially with rain now being forecast for Townsville on Saturday night. The only danger is a complete defensive collapse by the Panthers.. even still, without Thurston, Scott, Tamou and Tate, they really shouldn't be able to cash in on the Panther's misery too much.
Rolling with this game in a big way. 3x for the UNDER 42.5 at 1.95
GL

Adding:

Play #3
Dragons vs Rabbitohs UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Have this game at 36 but remove Inglis, Taylor, Creagh, Weyman, Merrin and we should be looking at a total in the low 30's. Dragons have been looking very ordinary but with Soward returning this week things should improve. Rabbitohs defense shouldn't suffer too much with Merritt moving to fullback to replace GI. This game will either be a Rabbitohs white wash or a very close low-scoring match - cannot see either of these resulting in the total going over 40.5
Locking this in for 1x GL

[s2230011]

Tonight is tricky, Tigers can go in a bit of a hole and not score for a while ... I also think that Farah missing does hamper their attack. Not sure to go over or Warriors. Good luck, I like your under in the Cowboys game. ANd I am leaning Souths on Sunday .. I was surprised its even money. Dragons still have a decent backline, but they dont score too much ... but the Souths forward pack is sooo much better than the Dragons atm

[s2230011]

The more I look into this the more I like the Warriors. Both sides are coming off 3 wins ... Warriors beat good opposition but at home .. Broncos, Bunnies and Roosters while the Tigers beat probably the three worst sides in the comp and two of the games by a point, Parra, Panthers and Titans.

Tigers had the bye, not sure if thats good or bad, but I feel they are a team that was trying hard to get back in form, so I dont think it was good timing. They also loose Robbie, who without him they wouldnt have come close to beating the Titans.

Too much pressure on Benji and their country men will be looking at putting one on him. I dont think Lawrence offers anything as a playmaker ..

Warriors can be their own worst enemies but I think the Tigers stink !!

[That Guy]

The more I look into this the more I like the Warriors. Both sides are coming off 3 wins ... Warriors beat good opposition but at home .. Broncos, Bunnies and Roosters while the Tigers beat probably the three worst sides in the comp and two of the games by a point, Parra, Panthers and Titans.

Tigers had the bye, not sure if thats good or bad, but I feel they are a team that was trying hard to get back in form, so I dont think it was good timing. They also loose Robbie, who without him they wouldnt have come close to beating the Titans.

Too much pressure on Benji and their country men will be looking at putting one on him. I dont think Lawrence offers anything as a playmaker ..

Warriors can be their own worst enemies but I think the Tigers stink !!

Good summary. If I had to pick a team tonight it'd be the Warriors.. but decided to play the total instead.
You're right - Tigers have been flakey at best and you never know which side is going to turn up. In saying that the Warriors have put on some shocking performances away from home... but tonight they should do 'alright'. And 'alright' for the Warriors in normal circumstances will win them the game against the Tigers.
GL with your play!

[kingsr]

I like the price on Warriors...cant believe they started underdogs in this game.

$1000 on warrior ML

[ThaBigG]

I like the price on Warriors...cant believe they started underdogs in this game.

$1000 on warrior ML

Im with you on that one!!