Just checked in your thread absolutely killed it. Well done mate. Looking forward to your round 3 selections.
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Agreed, I'm really not going to focus on much historical data as the market moves as quick as you do.
Spent a little bit more time thinking through my approach and doing some research - e.g. look at what was done here if you haven't already, http://www.mymait.com/Paper2/
I like the idea of doing the following:
Having a rating from 1-10 encapsulating the following:
Overall team rating
Home rating
Away rating
Offensive rating
Defensive rating
Momentum rating
Just now working on how I come up with these rankings, will PM you in a little while when I've got something more concrete to work with. You using any website scraping coding/software to gather your stats? I'm a computer engineer from way back but a bit rusty so not sure how to make that part of it as time efficient as possible. Which site you getting your stats from? (nrl.com.au, nrlstats.com, etc?)Comment -
Hey mate,
Bought a few spreadsheets of raw data off a site that went bust last year. Regularly use this site for info as well:
Good starting points but I'm always cautious of trend lines that act as red herrings. You've mentioned getting the info is easy, hard part is what you do with it that matters. I'd consider psychology (player movements, disagreements...), weather, fatigue etc in addition as well.
Cheers for the link. I haven't read about the MAIT system but have studied various other models out there... all good reading and food for thought.Comment -
ATTN : That Guy and Benrama
Have been following the NRL threads for the last few weeks here, Im from Canberra. Have been a professional poker player for the last 5 years. I have massive spreadsheets of data on NRL (historical odds since 2004, match results since 1997), and similar data for AFL and Super XV. Would love to chat to you guys, as Im taking sports betting seriously for the first time this year. I've had models for all 3 codes working since 2006.
Im available on Skype/MSN/email/here...Hit me up in this thread or PM me.
Cheers
RohanComment -
Hey Rohan, welcome to SBR! More minds on this the merrier, sounds like you have some good data there already.
I'm thinking we start a thread here on SBR for initial brain-storming and see where that takes us, I've already come up with a first order methodology I think for the various ratings I personally am thinking of modelling, don't have time to go into detail now but hopefully will do so over the weekend.
TG - agree that you have to find a way to spot a market inefficiency, I think though that in a small market like NRL with few people that apply analytics to it like - say - NFL there's much more opportunity to use simple modelling - especially given the Australian market is full of squares and your average TAB punters. I also am thinking of applying some basic neural network approaches to see about coming up with a model that self-learns, but that's looking way too far ahead. More later ...Comment -
NRL Season 2012 10-11 -1.9 units
Round 3
Back to it for another week.. have some very strong plays lined up for tommorrow which I'm leaning on. Potentially 2x or 3x.
No plays on the ML or line tonight - too close to call for mine.
Play #1
Dragons vs Tigers OVER 36 1x 1.90
I have this game set at 34 points. While it's below the total on paper these sides have missed multiple opportunities for tries in the past few games which hasn't been reflected in the stats. The heat in Round 1 forced down the Tigers average PPG and same deal with the Dragons in wet conditions at Newcastle. Tonight I think we see the real total arise and the game opens up a little.
Historically these teams match up to high totals and I'm counting on a return for that. GL
Play #2
Knights vs Broncos UNDER 34.5 1x 1.90
The Knights have been very efficient at defence under the influence of Wayne Bennett this year and whilst the total is low I have confidence in this play. Brisbane dropped off their defence last week but I think it's a one off and I'm tipping a clinical defence-orientated game tonight from 2 Bennett-influenced clubs. Corey Parker off the field will also limit the Broncos ability to put points on the board. If these two teams hold their own it'll be a comfortable UNDER. Both coaches have flagged defense as a priority this week.. so let's hope this happens.
GL
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Updated:
NRL Season 2012 12-11 -0.1 units
Round 3 so far 2-0
Just snuck away with a win on the Knights / Broncos after injuries to the Knights players threatened to blow out the over. However a cash is a cash...As predicted the Tigers / Dragons PPG suffered a correction and we saw the true total of these teams emerge.
Added:
Play #3
Titans vs Storm -7.5 x2 1.95
Titans backline struggled against the Raiders last week and an in-form Storm side should have a field day. They looked rusty against the Rabbitohs last week and still managed to win by a significant margin. Bellamy was left unimpressed last week by his side's performance and I expect a rejuvenated Storm to completely dominate this week. They are a team yet to show their true ability and should put on the points against the Titans. If Josh Dugan caused trouble last week then Smith, Slater and Cronk will run riot up against the NRL's oldest pack and a winger who hasn't played a first grade match in 6 months (Beau Champion). The Storm will be keen to retain their place towards the top of the NRL table after strong wins to Dragons and Broncos overnight.
I think we'll see the first big blowout this year and I'm confident with locking in the Storm -7.5. Model predictions have the Storm winning by 8-12 points but don't take into account the Titans gimme win against the Cowboys in round 1(they should have won by much much more against such a pathetic performance).
GL
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THAT GUY....You are one to watch this season! Keep up the amaing work!Comment -
Great work on those totals, absolutely nailed 'em. Congrats on the hot start & good luck with the rest of your round 3 plays!Comment -
Play #4
Cowboys vs Eels OVER 36.5 1x 1.85
Easy to justify the under on this match given the wet conditions and low PPG figures for both teams around 14pts.
However it's not really a true indication because the Cowboys scored zero points before putting on a try fest last week against the Broncos. Closer inspection reveals a high average for both these teams in the past and the matchup for both sides in wet conditions isn't bad. Last year in similar conditions and the Eels without a strong play maker we saw 42 points total.
Cowboys will be keen to put on a show at home after being belted in Round 1 and the Eels are under pressure to put some points on the board - Sandow will be out make amends. Adjusting for wet weather the total should hit 38 which is a lock for me 1x.
GL
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Feeling the same, despite the weather, can see the over hitting. GLComment -
The winning continues, well done..
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Jesus! Winner! How good is melb storm, what a damn good team! Billy slater is the best player in rugby league history!Comment -
Great work mate, Billy Slater is the Best Fullback in Rugby League history. Andrew Johns is still the best player we ever have seen. Slater does things others can never do, he is the supreme athlete. He also directs the team around from fullback. To get the best out of this conversation i am going to take 8s on him winning the Dally M ..He will run in the top 3 barring injury.Comment -
Updated: NRL Season 2012 14-11 +2.65 units
Some good results overnight with Eels crashing and the Storm eventually piling on the points against the Titans... have some strong leans for a few plays today:
Round 3 so far 4-0
Play #5
Roosters vs Raiders ML 2x 1.98
I'm a little unsure why the Roosters are favourites in this position. Their only win against the Rabbitohs was a fluke and clearly the books have high hopes for the return of Kenny-Dowall. The danger is the Roosters in a bounce back position after being hammered by the Panthers last week. The Raiders have yet to hit top gear and should have a lot more firepower out wide. If they dominate the ruck this is an easy win for green machine and even without an error riddled game I think the Roosters will struggle to keep up.
These teams have a history of high scoring games (the over is set at 44.5), but the Raiders have the guns to finish the job. Dugan is just starting to warm up and I think this side is massively under rated - their one win was far more convincing then the Roosters win against Souths. Raiders held their own against the Storm and I'm counting on them to perform away from home in this play.
I'm rolling with the Raiders for 2x based on the value of this play. Raiders have been the far superior team and this is not reflected by the books this week, presenting a good opportunity.
GL
Play #8
Warriors vs Bulldogs OVER 40.5 1x 1.90
This should be a good old fashioned shoot out by two teams who have been performing well in attack. Warriors and Dogs both average over 26 points per game each and should be on their game this weekend. Model predictions match these sides up very similar to the Round 1 clash between Warriors and Manly which blew out to 46points.
Warriors will be keen to have a win at home for the first time this year and should be fired up for a big one. I'm locking them in for the over at 1x. Good Luck
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Bit of rain around Auckland at hte moment. I am probably 25 minutes from Mt Smart so it might be better over there.
GL todayComment -
Stay hot brother - I've personally been impressed with the Doggies defense but I think they know they'll need to put points on the board to win today, line is 43.5 at Pinny so they are tipping their hat to the over - so I think it's a good play.Comment -
Play #9
Panthers vs Rabbitohs UNDER 44.5 1x 1.90
I was ready to play the over on this game, expecting the line to be set around 36pts based based on both teams relative failure to put many points on the board. However, I think the books have set the line of 44 a little too high. Rabbitohs defence has been fairly good so far this year and if they stay in this match they'll need to control points. This is a must win for the Rabbitohs and I'm expecting a big effort.
GI has been training in the fullback role during training, so expect to see some positional swaps - which should further strength the Rabbitohs defence. 6 changes this week to the Bunnies have been made with defence top of mind.
I'm locking this in for 1x GLComment -
Updated: NRL Season 2012 15-13 +0.55 units
Round 3 so far: 5-2
Tough day in the office and Josh Dugan off the field killed the solid 2x play in the Raiders.
Grinding on with one last play tomorrow to finish off the round.Comment -
Must say, the Dogs surprised me with how they held themselves today. Warriors absolutely smashed them literally but they never gave up! What a cracker game!
Warriors and Bulldogs are in my top 4 for sure.Comment -
Tough beat with the Raiders, when Dugan went off it was always going to be difficult, amazing what he brings to the team, they seem lost without him, still you've had a decent weekend, see what Monday night brings..Comment -
I'm considering a play on the Sharks.. With the Cherry-Evans saga and Matai / Stewart gone this is their best chance for a win in front of a home crowd. They'll be fired up after lost opportunities last week and Manly could go to sleep on this one after tough match ups the last 2 weeks.
Hmmmm.. Will dig a little deeper and make a call.Comment -
Tough to bet the Sharks in this spot. Manly have shown they can overcome adversity in their opening 2 rounds. You could be onto something though...add to that list of dramas, Keiran Foran has also rejected a deal with Manly and has been speaking with Hasler at the Dogs. Rumours are they are close to sealing a 4 year deal for him.
Not sure why they want him though. I'm quite happy with Josh Reynolds at the moment.Comment -
Sharkies or no play tonight, Monday night football always brings the best out of the home team. Sharks could have scored 5-7 tries against the knights and bombed them all. Manly have the more talented side but I think Sharkies will be more desperateComment -
Manly doesn't have holes in their defense like Newcastle do. It is the Monday night hoodoo though lolComment -
NRL Season 2012 15-13 +0.55 units
Round 3 so far: 5-2
Play #10
Sharks ML vs Sea Eagles 1x 2.95
Not much time for a writeup. After looking long and hard at the stats just can't go past the Sharks this week. This is a good value play considering the Eels were getting almost the same odds on Saturday night and don't look half as good as the Sharks. Off field dramas could affect the Sea Eagles, but I think the Sharks have had good prepartion in their own rightf or this match and could grind away a win with Carney back to his most leathal position in 5/8. Gibbs and Fifita also give some added strike power and the Sharks will be hungry for a win at home. In the pre season the sharks smashed the Sea Eagles in a convincing win and should fancy themselves to take the 2 pts tonight.
I'm locking this in for 1x
GL
Play #11
Sharks vs Sea Eagles UNDER 36.5 1x 1.90
Wet ground forecast tonight for the clash and two sides with the lowest consistant PPG figures - this points to a solid under play.
I'm expecting the winning team to slowly grind away the points with safe defence from both sides. The last 4 times these teams have met they've gone UNDER by a large margin, hopefully we get more of the same tonight.
GL
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Great call tonight
Comment -
NRL Season 2012 17-13 +3.40 units
Round 3 total: 7-2
Great to finish the week with 2 winning plays on the Sharks. Unfortunate that Dugan was injured for the Raiders otherwise the total might be looking a lot stronger.
Pushing on with another week of crunching the numbers and solid plays for Round 4. Great to have a more stats handy as we get into the season with improved efficiency. No chasing bets or crazy covers -just aiming for solid plays each week.
Hope you have a good week.
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Good Stuff mate, The one thing about losing on the Raiders is we know for sure the Roosters are a very weak team, they struggled to beat a team that had one player on the bench in the second half. It will even out though over the year.
always good to finish the week with a win.
Good luckNRL Season 2012 17-13 +3.40 units
Round 3 total: 7-2
Great to finish the week with 2 winning plays on the Sharks. Unfortunate that Dugan was injured for the Raiders otherwise the total might be looking a lot stronger.
Pushing on with another week of crunching the numbers and solid plays for Round 4. Great to have a more stats handy as we get into the season with improved efficiency. No chasing bets or crazy covers -just aiming for solid plays each week.
Hope you have a good week.Comment -
Cheers mate. Congrats on a great capping effort this round as well.. great to come on here and see NRL cappers in the +UNITS.
Especially when it's sharps cashing plays on long odds.
You're correct about the Roosters, however I also have a feeling the Raiders might continue the trend last year of being different side at home compared to on the road.
GL this weekComment -
The Raiders need to regroup, losing their best twoplayers for 5-6 weeks is going to be hard for them. Campese has also been well belo par. I am in Canberra so i will keep close tabs on how it is all going . They could of snatched the game against the Roosters even with only 14 fit players.
I will confess though i traded out of the Sharks at 1.04 with 15 to go, last years mach is still clear in my mind as i had backed the Sharks who gave up a big lead to the Sea eagles.
All good mate, I am watching the brainstorming thred as well, I wont be able to add any theory with the modelling side of things but will contribute what i can regarding other factors in selecting plays.
CheersComment -
Smoking mate, smoking! Under was never in doubt, I would have played it too but laying off those totals for the time being.
Forget about my modelling ideas, just keep using yours!
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