Bic's 2011 AFL Season Thread

**Brian891** · 04-02-11, 01:46 AM

7 is still too much. but pretty exciting. still think they r chokers. they were 14+ favs at home against a tired team and played like dog crap.

**Alt75** · 04-02-11, 01:47 AM

I think Eagles gonna hold on here. I should have stuck with my original pick.

**Brian891** · 04-02-11, 01:49 AM

its fukkin over. down 8 with less than 3 minutes. i hate port. i hope the team goes defunct. like i said, losing by 50 wouldve been better. i wasted 2 hours + for these chokers. a holes.

**Cobra Kai** · 04-02-11, 01:51 AM

Feel for you Brain. Games like that are the worst, though I can't honestly say I'm not happy with the result seeing as the Eagles are my team. If your not compleatly sick of this league already, I'll suggest Geelong once again. I'm confident its's a solid bet.

**Alt75** · 04-02-11, 01:53 AM

I spent Friday morning doing my homework for this round of AFL/NRL felt WCE would win on gut instinct and analysing the last round. Never changing my picks based on forum discourse again.

**Cobra Kai** · 04-02-11, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by Alt75

I spent Friday morning doing my homework for this round of AFL/NRL felt WCE would win on gut instinct and analysing the last round. Never changing my picks based on forum discourse again.

I learnt the exact lesson these past few weeks. Go with my gut and bet selectivly. I seem to do well when I bet like this, in AFL anyway, I seem to be good at picking close underdogs.

**Alt75** · 04-02-11, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by Cobra Kai

I learnt the exact lesson these past few weeks. Go with my gut and bet selectivly. I seem to do well when I bet like this, in AFL anyway, I seem to be good at picking close underdogs.

Yeah, I always do my tips based off my own analysis. I'm pretty good at picking out the underdogs in AFL and MMA everynow and then the odds, the "expert" tipsters or I guess common sense when people expect the home team/fave to win gives me second thoughts and I change my mind/chicken out. Oh well it was only a few bucks. If Bullants and Port Melb get up in the VFL it will cover it.

**Bic** · 04-02-11, 02:29 AM

Wow... Should really lower my units early in the season, West Coast winning at AAMI Stadium for the first time in 10 attempts... Who would of thunk it? That's coming off a short break, a trip from Perth and missing there best player. Oh dear...

(LOCKED) Carlton -27.5 x1

**Bic** · 04-08-11, 10:47 PM

AFL Round 2 Summary

(LOCKED) St Kilda -11.5/Port Adelaide ML @ 2.11 x2 LOSS
(LOCKED) Port Adelaide -3.5/Carlton -7.5 @2.03 x2 LOSS
(LOCKED) Carlton -27.5 x1 WIN 0.92

1-2, -3.08 units

YTD: 3-4, -1.42 units

**Bic** · 04-08-11, 10:52 PM

AFL Round 3

(LOCKED) Adelaide -4.5/Hawthorn -10.5 @2.27 x1.5
(LOCKED) Adelaide -14.5 @1.92 x0.5
(LOCKED) Hawthorn -24.5 @1.92 x0.5

YTD: 3-4 (43%), -1.42 units

**Bic** · 04-08-11, 11:10 PM

BET OF THE ROUND

(LOCKED) Shaun Burgoyne to have more DreamTeam points than Jordan Lewis @2.05 x3
(Centrebet)

Wow... Ridiculous... Jordan Lewis is favoured in this matchup, he hasn't had more points than Burgoyne this year! Let alone most of last year... Jordan Lewis is perfect candidate for the sub and has a new role as a tagger (Will probably sit on Deledio or Newman IMO). I'd like to go higher here, but Burgoyne could be tagged by Jackson. Still have to take this every day of the week...

**Bic** · 04-15-11, 12:13 AM

AFL Round 3 Summary

(LOCKED) Adelaide -4.5/Hawthorn -10.5 @2.27 x1.5 LOSS
(LOCKED) Adelaide -14.5 @1.92 x0.5 LOSS
(LOCKED) Hawthorn -24.5 @1.92 x0.5 WIN 0.48
(LOCKED) Shaun Burgoyne to have more DreamTeam points than Jordan Lewis @2.05 x3 LOSS

1-3, -4.52 units

YTD: 4-7, 36% -5.94 units

Who would have thought Jordan Lewis would have a best on ground performance... Haha cursing my luck on that one... Let's push on.

**Bic** · 04-15-11, 12:18 AM

AFL Round 4

(LOCKED) Collingwood/Richmond UNDER 191.5 @1.91 x1.5
(LOCKED) Collingwood -48.5 @1.91 x0.5
(LOCKED) Shaun Burgoyne to have more DreamTeam points than Jordan Lewis @1.95 x1

**Reno Paul** · 04-15-11, 12:58 AM

Thinking about getting in some AFL action.....Probably put a small play on the Magpies -47.5

**Gee** · 04-15-11, 01:54 AM

What is your angle on the under?

Statistically, it is probably a technical qualifier for me, but I don't think I am going to touch it.

I would have if the weather hadn't improved.

**Bic** · 04-16-11, 03:45 AM

You're not wrong Gee, totally got the under 100% wrong. I thought it would be a heavily contested game, I was wrong. Have to cop it on the chin.

I like these 2 unders tonight though, weather will play a part as well as the defensive styles of these games.

(LOCKED) Adelaide/Port Adelaide UNDER 168.5 @1.91 x3
(LOCKED) Sydney/Geelong UNDER 159.5 @1.90 x4

**Bic** · 04-16-11, 04:20 AM

Added 2 units in play Sydney/Geelong UNDER 172.5 x2

**Bic** · 04-16-11, 04:37 AM

And here comes the rain!

Get on now the under now!

**donkson** · 04-16-11, 08:01 AM

Good work, wish I paid attention to the weather earlier.

**Bic** · 04-16-11, 10:54 AM

AFL Round 4 Summary

Will not be making any plays tomorrow, though I have leans on Fremantle to cover spread and the over in that game. Good news is that we are back in the green

(LOCKED) Collingwood/Richmond UNDER 191.5 @1.91 x1.5 LOSS
(LOCKED) Collingwood -48.5 @1.91 x0.5 WIN 0.455
(LOCKED) Shaun Burgoyne to have more DreamTeam points than Jordan Lewis @1.95 x1 LOSS
(LOCKED) Adelaide/Port Adelaide UNDER 168.5 @1.91 x3 WIN 2.728
(LOCKED) Sydney/Geelong UNDER 159.5 @1.90 x4 WIN 3.6
(LOCKED) IN PLAY Sydney/Geelong UNDER 172.5 @1.85 x2 WIN 1.7

4-2, +5.983

YTD: 8-9, 47% +0.043 units

**Bic** · 04-21-11, 02:12 AM

AFL Round 5

(LOCKED) Brisbane/St Kilda UNDER 174.5 @1.91 x1
(LOCKED) North Melbourne PK @1.91 x1
(LOCKED) S.Black to have more Dream Team points than J.Adcock @1.90 x0.5

YTD: 8-9, 47% +0.043 units

I'm also Liking Hawthorn with the points against Geelong, hard fought win in the wet against Sydney will have an affect on the old legs. Hoping to get +4.5

**Bic** · 04-24-11, 11:40 PM

(LOCKED) Essendon/Collingwood UNDER 198.5 @1.92 x2.5
(LOCKED) D.Beams more DT points than D.Thomas @2.00 x0.5

**Bic** · 04-29-11, 04:18 AM

AFL Round 5 Summary

(LOCKED) Brisbane/St Kilda UNDER 174.5 @1.91 x1 WIN 0.91
(LOCKED) North Melbourne PK @1.91 x1 LOSS
(LOCKED) S.Black to have more Dream Team points than J.Adcock @1.90 x0.5 LOSS
(LOCKED) Essendon/Collingwood UNDER 198.5 @1.92 x2.5 WIN 2.25
(LOCKED) D.Beams more DT points than D.Thomas @2.00 x0.5 LOSS
2-3, +1.16 units
YTD: 10-12, 45% +1.203 units

**Bic** · 04-29-11, 04:22 AM

AFL Round 6

(LOCKED) Carlton +6.5 @1.92 x1

YTD: 10-12, 45% +1.203 units

More to come through the weekend, stay tuned

**Bic** · 04-29-11, 08:41 AM

Good win tonight by the Blue baggers as underdogs! A lot of people were on Sydney tonight, so really happy I went my boys on this one.

Liking North Melbourne to cover, North/Port unders, Richmond to cover, St Kilda with the points start and Adelaide/St Kilda unders.

Don't like betting on that many though, will look at some numbers and weather reports.

**Bic** · 05-03-11, 06:18 AM

AFL Round 6 Summary

(LOCKED) Carlton +6.5 @1.92 x1 WIN 0.92

YTD: 11-12, 48% +2.125 units

**Bic** · 05-03-11, 10:59 PM

AFL Round 7

(LOCKED) Western Bulldogs -4.5 @1.91 x2.5

YTD: 11-12, 48% +2.125 units

**aceking** · 05-04-11, 09:17 AM

Good job mate !

try canbet.com for better AFL odds .

Geelong -52 looks like a good bet...

**Bic** · 05-04-11, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by aceking

Good job mate !

try canbet.com for better AFL odds .

Geelong -52 looks like a good bet...

Thanks mate will give it a look.. I see Geelong -47 at a lot of places though...

**Bic** · 05-05-11, 09:13 AM

So far for round 7-

(LOCKED) Western Bulldogs -4.5 @1.91 x2.5
(LOCKED) Port Adelaide/Hawthorn UNDER 182.5 @1.91 x2.5
(LOCKED) T.Boak > L.Shiels in DT points @1.97 x1
(LOCKED) Adelaide +3.5 x1

Bet365 really don't have any idea about AFL. Again they try and set the over/under earlier than other bookies, this will get into the 170's and I just can't see Port Adelaide scoring that many points to keep this line going over...

**Bic** · 05-06-11, 11:29 PM

A good night last night with the 2.5 unit wager winning. Pity about Boak, he is playing crap at the minute...

I tried to stay away from these bets but going with my head here:

(LOCKED) Fremantle -5.5 @1.92 x1
(LOCKED) Sandliands > Mundy in DT points @2.00 x0.5

Fremantle are the better side, so like them at the line here, quite simple. Sandilands should have a day out in the ruck against Angus Graham, so expect 40+ hitouts for the big man, which really is a 40 point start against Mundy who should be tagged by Jackson.

**Bic** · 05-09-11, 01:58 AM

Has been a tough weekend.. But am liking a few bets tonight with my Blue boys!

(LOCKED) Carlton -16.5 @1.92 x2.5

Joey Montagna will be a late out for St Kilda so Carlton's midfield should be on top... Dal Santo will be heavily tagged, and they really don't have anyone else to win the ball... Because of this I really like the over for tonight, the last 5 times the game has gone over this total and I think it happens again tonight, weather is good for footy.

(LOCKED) Carlton/St Kilda OVER 176.5 @1.91 x2.5

**Bic** · 05-10-11, 07:38 PM

AFL Round 7 Summary

(LOCKED) Western Bulldogs -4.5 @1.91 x2.5 LOSS
(LOCKED) Port Adelaide/Hawthorn UNDER 182.5 @1.91 x2.5 WIN 2.275 units
(LOCKED) T.Boak > L.Shiels in DT points @1.97 x1 LOSS
(LOCKED) Adelaide +3.5 x1 LOSS
(LOCKED) Fremantle -5.5 @1.92 x1 LOSS
(LOCKED) Sandliands > Mundy in DT points @2.00 x0.5 WIN 0.5 units
(LOCKED) Carlton -16.5 @1.92 x2.5 LOSS
(LOCKED) Carlton/St Kilda OVER 176.5 @1.91 x2.5 LOSS

YTD: 13-18, 42% -5.6 units

Not a good week... The rumor on Montagna was so strong, turned out to be false and hurt the value of the later bets... Really felt like Carlton would run over the top of St Kilda but it was the other way round. 5 units on that game alone was stupid.

**Bic** · 05-10-11, 07:59 PM

AFL Round 8

(LOCKED) North Melbourne +5.5 @1.91 x5
(LOCKED) North Melbourne ML @2.10 x2

Biggest play of the year on one game.

Melbourne are missing 3 of their best players: Jack Trengove, Jack Grimes and Mark Jamar, to go along with Tom Scully. North should totally dominate the ruck which goes a long way into winning the game.

North Melbourne have won their past 8 games against Melbourne.

**amac38** · 05-11-11, 06:23 PM

I can see where you're coming from mate, I'll be tailing this one.