Coopertrooper's 2014 AFL Thread

[Coopertrooper]

Busy few weeks coming up at the moment, only the one play I really want to get on at this stage.

Round 13

Play #1 - North Melbourne H2H/ML, $2.00 X 3 units (Any book)

Despite having to travel to Adelaide for this match, the roos look to be the form side. Despite also being up and down throughout this season, north can smell a finals spot and will look to sow it up by virtually eliminating one of the few remaining threats for a finals spot. The crows have played some good football at Adelaide Oval in recent weeks, however, the roos have travelled well this season and will not be put off. If this game were at a neutral venue, north would almost certainly be favourites. One of the bigger pays this year, 3 units.

[Coopertrooper]

Well that is as bad as the roos have played all year, despite quite a bit of support for them in the end. Can't stop my ice cold run right now.

Round 13: 0-1 -3 units

[Coopertrooper]

Need to update the overall record: YTD: 29-1-38 -12.44 units

Round 15

There is again a special for leading at any break but losing, so will be taking advantage of it. I don't think this round has any major upsets coming, so will jump on 8 teams with this special:

Play #1-8, Each team H2H/ML, 1 unit each:

Geelong $1.40
Hawthorn $1.18
Richmond $1.15
Fremantle $1.25
Sydney $1.06
North Melbourne $1.16
Port Adelaide $1.36
Collingwood $1.26

Not a big week here, just a good chance at clawing some of the losses back. I hope to have the time for more plays and write-ups soon, but the outside world is determining that at the moment I'm afraid! Hopefully the season-long bets will provide enough of a late boost to bring this year back into the green.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1-8, Each team H2H/ML, 1 unit each:

Geelong $1.40
Hawthorn $1.18
Richmond $1.15
Fremantle $1.25
Sydney $1.06
North Melbourne $1.16
Port Adelaide $1.36
Collingwood $1.26

Overall 6 win and 2 get money back after leading at quarter time.

Round 15 +1.3 units

YTD: 30-1-38 -11.14 units

[Coopertrooper]

Round 16

Play #1 - Collingwood H2H/ML, $1.92 X 1.5 units (TAB)

I think Collingwood are turning up today. After a frustrating loss to the suns last year, there is again plenty on the line, with the chance for the pies to sew up a top 8 spot and dream of the top 4. With a number of defensive players back in the side, only the defensive general Maxwell is missing. The suns don’t have the most potent attack, so will rely heavily on their midfielders to kick goals. If the pies can get on top in the middle, they can attack while also drying up the suns scores. While the suns have everything to play for, they are already getting the best from their guns and I don’t see them stepping up again today. 1.5 unit play.

[Coopertrooper]

Sums up my year, getting within a kick and Young dropping a mark directly in front in the most crucial play of the game. A pathetic showing from the pies, the worst month of football in at least 5-6 years.

Round 16: 0-1 -1.5 units

YTD: 30-1-39 -12.64 units

[Coopertrooper]

Sorry for the late play, but I've been flat out!

Play #1 - Hawthorn H2H, $1.70 X 1 unit

Play with the great promo of money back if your side loses by 20 or less. Will be a few more of these to come.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - West Coast H2H, $1.47 X 1 unit

Play #3 - Port Adelaide H2H, $1.54 X 1 unit

Play #4 - Collingwood H2H, $1.55 X 1 unit

All plays with the money back promo. No time for big write-ups, but I think these 4 can get it done or will at the least turn up to play. The promo makes these plays.

[Coopertrooper]

Round 17: 2-1-1 +0.17 units

YTD: 32-2-40 -12.47 units

Disappointing result with Collingwood continuing it worst run of football in this decade and Port also falling into a serious slump, putting at risk the season bet on them after being 2 games clear on top not long ago.

The same special is on this week, so there are some more bets.

Round 18

Play #1 - West Coast H2H, $1.52 X 1 unit

Play #2 - North Melbourne H2H, $1.24 X 1 unit

Sticking with these 2 sides for now. North should account for the blues on Friday night, despite a better form patch from them, while West Coast hosting Richmond provides the tasty opportunity to get what looks like a safe $1.52 bet. Hopefully some more losses will be clawed back this week!

[Coopertrooper]

Round 18: 0-1-1 -1 unit

North Melbourne somehow managed to get beaten (and well beaten) by Carlton (23 points, just over the money back range). West Coast also managed to lose at home to the tigers, but fell into the money back zone. A round with a lot of upsets out of the way, leaving another unit lost. There is still some time to cut into this deficit for the year, but results continue to be very rocky, so I will continue to make few plays. The year has not evened out at all.

YTD: 32-3-41 -13.47 units

[Coopertrooper]

I apologise that I have been unable to post many plays in the past few months for any of those that were following. I have some plays for tonight and may have more over the weekend:

Round 20

Play #1 – Essendon 1-39, $2.25 X 2 units (Lad)

Essendon has quite a tricky run into the finals, needing more wins to secure a finals spot. With upcoming games against 9^th, 11^th, 12^th and 13^th, they need to keep clear of those sides, which makes it vital for them to hit the next month hard. I expect to see that tonight, with the 12^th placed tigers holding onto only the slimmest of finals dreams. Richmond have started to find a little bit of form, but is in no better form than the bombers, while the bombers have the better side on paper. The money has come for the tigers, blowing out the odds to an interesting position. I’m taking the bombers to get the job done, but the tigers form is too good to let this blow out. 2 unit play.

[Coopertrooper]

Essendon were so wasteful. Won the midfield battle for most of it but butchered the ball forward of centre. These weird results where sides are on top but can't put it on the board are killers.

Round 20 0-1 -2 units

[Coopertrooper]

YTD: 32-3-42 -15.47 units

Despite such an ugly season I will still post plays when I can. I like one play for tonight:

ROUND 21

Play #1 - Geelong 1-39, $2.30 X 3 units (Lad)

I haven't had many 3 unit plays this year, but I'm making this one of them. Carlton have hit a little bit of form, but the cats are playing for a home final (and to sure up a top 4 spot, not that theirs is really in danger). They are warming up for a tilt at the flag, so it would be shocking to see a drop in effort. The game is at Etihad, which suits the blues, so it is hard to see Geelong dominating. Percentage is a non-issue for a top 2 spot, as the gap is too great to the swans and hawks, so they don't need to over-extend themselves if they have a comfortable lead. Everything is pointing towards the cats winning but not dominating, so am going with one of the equal-largest plays of the year.

[MustWinPlease]

Geelong should win tonight

[Coopertrooper]

Bit of a late update, but the cats got home by 6. Carlton made it a little too close for comfort near the end, but thankfully a big play finally hits.

Round 21: 1-0 +3.9 units

YTD: 33-3-42 -11.57 units

A small update on the season bets - With port likely needing a good win in the last game against freo to make the 4, there may be a chance to at least hedge out of that bet. The hawks still have work to do to win the premiership, while Gaz's injury has brought him right back to the pack for the Brownlow. I'll most likely be riding out all 3 bets and seeing whether they can find a way to hit.

I still need to find the time to figure out the years ROI, I may well do this at the end of the season when I have a bit more time.

[Coopertrooper]

Round 22

Play #1 - Port Adelaide -25.5, $2.00 X 1 unit (Lad)

Play #2 - Port Adelaide -39.5, $2.65 X 2 units (SB)

Port Adelaide's equation to make 4th place is simple; It must win well this week to reduce the amount it needs to beat Fremantle next week. Port have it all to play for, with now the best time to find form - their finals campaign essentially starts next week. They'll be going full throttle here, hoping to blast the blues out of the water to keep their chances alive. Fremantle should win well this week, so they'll have a nice buffer in the last match. On the flip side, the blues are winding down their year. When the coach comes out and says the focus is on the next season, it rarely bodes well for a strong performance against a side that needs to be going at full pace. I think this could get ugly, so I love the value of the over 39 option, while another unit at the enhanced $2 line can help to cover some losses if it fals just short of 39.

[HeisenBet]

Hi mate, do you know the reason for the line move since yesterday? I have Port -14.5.

[Coopertrooper]

I have been super busy this week, so only got a chance to look today. Last night was teams night, with the blues losing a couple of players to injury (I thought both were well known after last weekends games though). If this line was at the start of the week, I wouldn't be surprised if it was people slowly realising the fact that port can still make the top 4, as well as carlton's coach coming out saying their focus had shifted to next year, so they will preserve players. Many analysts early in the week were dismissive of any change to the top 4, but they must not have paid much attention to the fact that the percentage gap is easier to close when you're playing against the team you're chasing for the last spot.

Some combination of those factors would likely be the cause.

[HeisenBet]

Thanks for the info mate. I watch the AFL when I can over here and enjoy it, though I lack the real in depth knowledge or follow it as closely as a real dedicated fan would. There are other sports I concentrate and I don't have the time to do the AFL justice, though I like a punt on it now and again for fun. I know Carlton has showed vast improvement the past few rounds but I reckon they might be in for a back to earth spot in this one.

[Coopertrooper]

I understand, particularly with the game times being at night/morning and little media attention. Any breaking news is on the TV and radio here within minutes sometimes.

Carlton's form has been good, but I share the sentiment, their season is just about done and some players have niggles that don't need pushing. They will be hoping for a finals place next year, so it will be up to kids to try and take their late chances, but it's hard to see them performing at the same level.

[binomial]

top call on Port.

[ACoochy]

Tigers -41.5 looks mighty tempting as they need a percentage boosting win here.

May middle it with Tigers 1-39 +135 at luxbet

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks binomial

Coochy, good to see you around. I'm a little iffy on the tigers line at the moment, they are still prone to showing a bit of a flat spot, but I'm leaning them covering.

Play #1 - Port Adelaide -25.5, $2.00 X 1 unit (Lad) WIN

Play #2 - Port Adelaide -39.5, $2.65 X 2 units (SB) WIN

Round 22: 2-0 +4.3 units

Another play I like for this round:

Play #3 - Essendon/Gold Coast Under 179.5, $1.90 X 1 unit (Lad)

The money has started coming for the under, so this is a good time to jump on while there is still some value. The bombers main focus will be securing a comfortable win, with half an eye to percentage (that is the only thing stopping this being a bigger play). The suns are shot without Gary, but they still have faint finals hopes. They just simply need to win - their percentage is likely to be clashing with the crows if anyone for a finals spot, and they are too far behind them to close that gap. They lack fire-power in attack, so i'm expecting a defensive game from them. Putting 1 unit onto this play.

[Coopertrooper]

A bit late with the update this week. The last play was a loser, after looking very promising for most of the first half (multiple goals in the final 40 seconds hurt, with the second half opening up and having more scoring, enough to push it over by 3 goals). The totals continue to be very tough this year.

Round 22: 2-1 +3.3 units

YTD: 35-3-43 -8.27 units

I'll look at some plays for this week, but will wait and see the teams first. I don't see any standout plays as of yet. The port top 4 bet is on the line this week. Fremantle losing is enough for it to cash, so with odds of around $1.40 available to hedge with it has the possibility of being hedged. However, I give port a very good chance in that game, so will ride it out.

[Coopertrooper]

Round 23

Play #1 – Richmond +21.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (SB)
Play #2 – Sydney 1-39, $2.15 X 1 unit (Lad)

The tigers have it all to play for, with a win securing a finals berth. A loss will almost certainly end their season. They have it all to put on the line and will be right in this match. Their form is good, but the question is whether it (and other factors, particularly the large gap in each team’s motivation) is enough to overcome the big difference in the quality of the sides. Sydney don’t play ANZ stadium well, so it has the potential of being tight and fairly low-scoring, so a low margin would not surprise. The sides are mostly as expected. However, the loss of Pyke and replacement of debutant Naismith will have a big impact; opposing ruckman Maric is in fantastic form. The tigers will have plenty of opportunities in the middle, so I give them every chance to make this one go down to the wire. I still expect the swans to win, so I like the option of playing both Sydney 1-39 and taking the points for Richmond. As long as the swans don’t blow them away, this will be a good chance of hitting.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 – Collingwood/Hawthorn Under 187.5, $2.15 X 2.5 units (TAB)

Collingwood’s season will almost certainly end at the hand of the hawks tonight. The pies will need to stop the hawks from blowing them out of the water early, so should be fairly defensive. The attack for Collingwood is so crippled that it comprises of essentially nobody who would be in the best side (newcomer Broomhead looks like being the only exception, but he has played too few games to tell just yet). The MCG is not a place for particularly high-scoring matches, and while the hawks will look to tune up for the finals, they have no need to go for the kill and kick a massive score. I won’t be surprised if they get 5-7 goals up near half time and take the foot off the gas. I think the value on this play is excellent, with most books having this line at 187.5 or 188.5 at $1.90 or less. Happy to have a go at this line for 2.5 units.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 – Port Adelaide +14.5, $1.92 X 1.5 units (SB)
Play #5 – Port Adelaide 1-39, $3.30 X 0.75 units (SB)

Port and Fremantle shoot it out for fourth spot and I like port to pull off the upset. Despite already having the season bet coming down to this match, I’ve tried to ignore it and just bet this play as I usually would. Port have found that spark again and have found form too. With everything to play for, I really like more than 2 goals head start, as I think this game will be tight. For those reasons, I also like a small play on port to win the match without smashing fremantle at good value.

[Coopertrooper]

Round 23: 3-2 +3.43 units

Season bets: 0-1 -1 unit

YTD: 38-3-46 -5.84 units

I thought this was a bit of a stiff week, with port storming home too late (after letting 9 goals in a row past while missing a number of easy chances), killing off the season bet and 1-39, which would have been just under a 10 unit turn-around. The tigers also held the swans off by less than a goal, just missing the middle of the tigers +21.5 and Sydney 1-39. Sums up a year of being close but not quite.

Anyway, the focus shifts toward the first week of the finals. With fewer games to focus on, there will be less value and more judgement calls.

Finals Week 1

Play #1 - Parlay, Total Odds $2.22 X 2.5 units (Lux)

-Hawthorn Win, $1.50
-Sydney Win, $1.48


Play #2 - Parlay, Total Odds $3.69 X 1 unit (Lux)

-Hawthorn -12.5, $1.92
-Sydney -12.5, $1.92


Play #3 - Hawthorn -12.5, $1.92 X 2 units (Lux)

Play #4 - Sydney -12.5, $1.92 X 2 units (Lux)

Play #5 - North Melbourne -6.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (SB)

The hawks and swans come into the finals as raging favourites and I think they are a long way ahead of the rest of the competition. Giving away as little as a 2 goal start is very tempting, so I'm taking each line heavily with 2 units and parlaying them, while also parlaying both sides to win in case one game (or both) get a bit closer than I expect. A loss for either side is very damaging (assuming both would win through to a prelim, the hawks would have to travel to Sydney or Perth for a prelim, and Sydney would have to travel to Melbourne), so they won't be leaving too much in the tank.

I'm also adding the roos to cover. Despite their up-and-down nature, the roos will have been focused on this match for as long as 2 weeks, while the bombers had a far from ideal lead-up, going very close to falling to 8th spot. I don't see the bombers having the ability to flick the switch and change their form in a week.

[Coopertrooper]

Nice way to start the finals series with a 5-0 sweep!

Finals Week 1: 5-0 +10.46 units

YTD: 43-3-46 +4.62 units

Finally back into the positive for the season, which looked unreachable a month ago. No crazy big plays, just a solid run after a horrid run and me struggling to find time during the middle of the year.

No plays for tomorrow's match for me.

[Bic]

Nice way to start the finals series with a 5-0 sweep!

Finals Week 1: 5-0 +10.46 units

YTD: 43-3-46 +4.62 units

Finally back into the positive for the season, which looked unreachable a month ago. No crazy big plays, just a solid run after a horrid run and me struggling to find time during the middle of the year.

No plays for tomorrow's match for me.

You and me both mate! Keep it up and stay in the green!

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks mate, good to see the forum as a whole is turning out profits again on AFL markets!

Finals Week 2

Play #1 - Geelong -7.5, $2.00 X 2 units (Topsport)

Taking advantage of the early $2 line. Geelong come into this match off a somewhat competitive match against the hawks, while the roos fought hard to sneak past the bombers. The more telling game for me was that of the roos and bombers. Essendon were able to get well on top and should not have lost the lead they have - they crumbled when momentum went against them. The roos don't posses a purely skilled team that can dominate a final, but showed they are capable of playing in patches. The fact that the bombers wilted under the pressure was telling, as the pressure was a notch lower than in the game that Geelong was able to hang in for, for at least a half. Geelong will not let up with their pressure, nor will they allow a side to control the game with a run of such momentum. They have the experience to slow the game when required. History already suggests it is difficult for sides outside the top 4 to make the prelims. I don't see the roos as being a side which is capable of breaking such a trend, particularly not against the team they will be facing.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Coop, one Q for u. What about the stadium for this game? I see it listed as MCG. Any reason this game is NOT being played at Geelong home site?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Coop, one Q for u. What about the stadium for this game? I see it listed as MCG. Any reason this game is NOT being played at Geelong home site?

I guess my Q is: Is this truly a Neutral-site game?

[MustWinPlease]

SCarred that johnson and mctosh is out but im with u on the cats

[Coopertrooper]

The ground: There has been quite a bit of discussion in recent years (particularly last year) that Geelong shouldn't ever have home finals because of the stadium size and a perceived home ground advantage that is larger than any other. They got one last year in a qualifying final (the only non-elimination games in the finals) in Geelong, and it caused plenty of controversy. For an elimination game, it is not realistically on the cards. And given the roos play few home games at the MCG, it isn't a big deal. The qualifying final was also against a non-Victorian side, so the expected crowd was low, whereas a game between 2 Victorian sides is usually expected to draw a good crowd.

In terms of Johnson/McIntosh: Johnson was in doubt all week and the mail was always that he would miss. I made this play assuming he was out. McIntosh I wasn't sure about, but I personally am unconvinced about his impact in big games anyway. I don't see it having a major impact, I think this Geelong side on paper is much better than the roos side.