Coopertrooper's 2014 AFL Thread

[Coopertrooper]

A lot of people were burnt by them, these results have definitely been more prevalent in the past 1 1/2 seasons for some reason.

One last play for the weekend:

Play #5 - Hawthorn 20-39, $4.30 X 0.75 units (Sportsbet)

Don't quite want to outlay a full unit here, but I like the bet. Despite a good recent record over the hawks, the tigers look a shell of the side we have known over the past 18 months. Hawthorn will be out for blood after last week and would love nothing more after a loss to one side that has the wood on them to have a win over another side with the wood on them. The hawks are coming off a short break, so I think this could slow down late in the game, which I feel will bring this type of margin right into the fold.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #5 - Hawthorn 20-39, $4.30 X 0.75 units (Sportsbet) LOSS

Play #2 - Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70 x 1 unit (Sportsbet) LOSS

Round 6: 1-4 -4.25 units

Another day, another frustrating close miss. Port win by 40, which is frustrating enough. But then the siren goes 1 second before a Geelong player marks about 35m out, which would have been a sure score. Hopefully no one has been tailing too much in the past couple of weeks, I'm cursed at the moment.

YTD: 24-23 -1.11 units

[therealdealau]

Extremely frustrating to lose that Port 1-39, stick to your guns mate! The Pies are looking menacing right now!

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks mate. At least my season bets are looking promising thus far! I've been surprised with how well the pies have been playing since round 1, I had us pegged at about 6th, but with poor form from both the swans and dockers a top 4 spot is still a outside chance. I won't be too unhappy if we still end up 5th-8th, as I am pretty excited about the future of the list. Since mid-way through last year we have been in a bit of an awkward mini-rebuild phase, but it is paying dividends at the moment, far earlier than I had expected!

Still flat out for the next few weeks, so bets will be fairly spaced out. Very little stands out at me this week anyway.

Round 7

Play #1 - Carlton/Collingwood Under 170.5, $1.88 X 2 units (Sportsbet)

The rivalry between these 2 has produced some high-scoring games in recent times. However, the factors that caused this were wild swings within some quarters, which brought about high scoring quarters (Both games last year had at least 1 quarter where more than 10 goals were scored), good weather and the goal-kicking hauls from Walker, Yarran, Garlett, Cloke and Reid. This time, the game appears like it will be more consistently one-sided, the weather will be cold (with a forecast of some rain) and of the mentioned players are unlikely to kick a bag. Walker has not kicked a goal in 5 outings this year, not playing in a forward role. Yarran appears in doubt with injury and does not play forward very often nowadays. Garlett may be finding some form, with 3 goals last week. Cloke is out of form, with goalless games and a greasy night not set to help. Reid is still injured and won't play. Combine the lack of firepower from previous years with the weather and what looks like being a more dour game, and the under looks the play, despite the low number. Risking 2 units here.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Carlton forwards are surely the most wayward in the league?
Couldn't score even in a Bangkok brothel...

Add Cloke who is one of the most inconsistent full forwards of all time and you have the perfect recipe for under.

Final score
Blues 7.21 63
Pies 8.12 60

[Coopertrooper]

Carlton forwards are surely the most wayward in the league?
Couldn't score even in a Bangkok brothel...

Add Cloke who is one of the most inconsistent full forwards of all time and you have the perfect recipe for under.

Final score
Blues 7.21 63
Pies 8.12 60

Cloke's consistency this year has been horrid, moreso for his lack of work up the ground than just his scoreboard pressure. Given how well the Collingwood defence is holding up it is hard to see who will kick goals for Carlton.

Collingwood games have gone at 159.8 ppg thus far, blues at 186ppg (but 172.6 ppg for 3 games at the 'G).

[Tim Gerry Mander]

What happened to the days of the genuine full forward who would kick at least 6 goals for you and very rarely miss a set shot from 40 metres out - and at most 1 or 2 behinds.

Another gump is that Jack Reiwoldt. How do you miss from 25m out if your job is to kick goals? The biggest deflator for any team is your midfield working it's arse off to get the ball up front and your full forward not scoring. He was awful last week v Hawks.

[Domestic]

What happened to the days of the genuine full forward who would kick at least 6 goals for you and very rarely miss a set shot from 40 metres out - and at most 1 or 2 behinds.

Another gump is that Jack Reiwoldt. How do you miss from 25m out if your job is to kick goals? The biggest deflator for any team is your midfield working it's arse off to get the ball up front and your full forward not scoring. He was awful last week v Hawks.

Yep, it is ridiculous some of the shots you see not only miss but go out of bounds on the full. When I'm watching the grand final or a big game with friends who otherwise do not watch the sport they are shocked by some of the misses and I don't have any answers. I can understand some kicks late in the game being wayward when you've been running around for the last 2 hours but some of these guys have it all wrong from the moment they begin their run-rup.

[Coopertrooper]

Those days are long-gone, simply because the guys who had the strength to take big marks and kick bags every week were also slow. As recently as 10 years ago, a forward could run 4-5km's a game and that was fine. Now they have to be able to run 8-9km's or more each week, so when they do have shots they are often leg-weary. These old big forwards were getting caught out and exposed. I always look at what happened to Anthony Rocca. A great player for us, but in his last few seasons he barely touched the football and was unaccountable, which killed us. Simply put, the game has just evolved, and that type of player couldn't kick that number of goals now. At least not at this level - their type still exist at suburban football, where you don't need elite running endurance.

Another issue, somewhat borne of the games evolution, is that the lower numbers of goals stops players from getting confidence, mixed with the much larger media saturation of the game. While mental illness is better understood and has lead to more diagnosis, modern sports players face more scrutiny than ever, heaping a lot more pressure on. The explosion of gambling options and broadcasting of every game on TV are particularly strong factors.

Added to all of this is the number of teams increasing dilutes the pool of talent and spreads it thinner too. But there is certainly some questions that need to fall on junior ranks. As Domestic says, they shouldn't be missing the early set shots, regardless of whether the warm-ups are slightly more intense (I don't buy into that, some seem to). Some players don't even seem to know how to drop the ball. Part of that comes from the poaching of talent by teams who identified the need to have pace and endurance, but locally raised players can be all over the place, just look at Kennedy's run-up!

[beeeej12]

Final score
Blues 7.21 63
Pies 8.12 60

I like the look of the result but as a carlton supporter i'm not confident at all. Having said the line which is now +26.5 (sportingbet) for Carlton looks extremely tempting

[Bic]

I like the look of the result but as a carlton supporter i'm not confident at all. Having said the line which is now +26.5 (sportingbet) for Carlton looks extremely tempting

Yes it is... Going to the game tonight? I will be there

[beeeej12]

Yes it is... Going to the game tonight? I will be there

Yeah i'll be there for sure.

I want it to rain because i reckon it will help carlton more then collingwood but then i dont want it to rain because my seat isn't under cover

[MustWinPlease]

I like the carlton line here too,

WHAT THE HELL ODDS JUST DROPPED A penetrate LOAD FOR CARLTON
FUCKIN HELL
right when iw as going to bet

from 4.00 to 3.80

[Domestic]

Yeah i'll be there for sure.

I want it to rain because i reckon it will help carlton more then collingwood but then i dont want it to rain because my seat isn't under cover

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Carlton/Collingwood Under 170.5, $1.88 X 2 units (Sportsbet)

The rivalry between these 2 has produced some high-scoring games in recent times. However, the factors that caused this were wild swings within some quarters, which brought about high scoring quarters (Both games last year had at least 1 quarter where more than 10 goals were scored), good weather and the goal-kicking hauls from Walker, Yarran, Garlett, Cloke and Reid. This time, the game appears like it will be more consistently one-sided, the weather will be cold (with a forecast of some rain) and of the mentioned players are unlikely to kick a bag. Walker has not kicked a goal in 5 outings this year, not playing in a forward role. Yarran appears in doubt with injury and does not play forward very often nowadays. Garlett may be finding some form, with 3 goals last week. Cloke is out of form, with goalless games and a greasy night not set to help. Reid is still injured and won't play. Combine the lack of firepower from previous years with the weather and what looks like being a more dour game, and the under looks the play, despite the low number. Risking 2 units here.

Adding:

Play #1A - Carlton/Collingwood Over 164.5, $1.88 X 1.5 units (SB)

The rain appears like it will not be as heavy as first predicted. The number has moved to a nice position too, so it creates a nice middling opportunity. $1.90 was available at Lux, but they moved their line up sharply before I could look around.

[Coopertrooper]

13 seconds left with a ball-up, all I need is no more goals to hit the middle, yet a goal kicked with a couple of seconds left sinks it. Wow. I'm on the worst run of bad beats I've ever been on. Just ridiculous.

I can't seem to quote, so I'll update later, but..... wow.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - Essendon Quarter Time lead 1-18, $2.10 X 1 unit (B365)

Not too much time to give a write-up here, but I think the bombers will be too strong for the dogs. I also see it being a tight opening, so I think the 1-18 margin is a good play.

[Coopertrooper]

Quoting doesn't seem to be working on my computer at the moment, but the bombers bet was a loss after they lead for most of the first quarter.

Round 7: 1-2 -1.68 units

YTD: 25-25 -2.79 units

Tried to keep things quiet in what looked like being a tough round, but another 2 close losses after having them both seemingly locked away at different stages continues the frustrating run of the past month. Damage is fairly limited thus far, so will be continuing with the same strategies!

[Coopertrooper]

Round 8

Play #1 - Port Adelaide -7.5, 1.91 X 3 units (CB)

Getting on early as I think this line is great value. Despite coming up against some stiff opposition in Fremantle, the power are at home again, where they are dismantling sides. Despite Fremantle's credentials, they have come off a derby which is always well-contested, with only a 6-day break. Port get an ideal 7-day gap between their clash with Geelong, which was cruisy for them later in the match. They have continued to come on in leaps and bounds and again a great opportunity presents itself with this line. Hitting up port again in hope of changing the fortunes of the last few weeks around, I'm confident enough to wager 3 units on the one.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - Hawthorn -6.5, $1.93 X 1 unit (B365)

Play #3 - Sydney/Hawthorn Under 181.5, $1.91 X 1 unit (B365)

Play #4 - Parlay: Total Odds $3.69 X 1 unit (B365)
-Hawthorn -6.5, $1.93
-Sydney/Hawthorn Under 181.5

With Hodge out the line has tumbled, and -6.5 is too good to refuse. I have been eyeing off this total - despite the swans having their big guns back, I think this game will be fairly slow-paced early and would not be surprised if this goes fairly well under. Happy to have a go at this game with a 1 unit on each play and a unit on the double.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - Hawthorn -6.5, $1.93 X 1 unit (B365) LOSS

Play #3 - Sydney/Hawthorn Under 181.5, $1.91 X 1 unit (B365) LOSS

Play #4 - Parlay: Total Odds $3.69 X 1 unit (B365) LOSS
-Hawthorn -6.5, $1.93
-Sydney/Hawthorn Under 181.5

Round 8: 0-3 -3 units

Not sure how only a few players out for the hawks can rattle the minds of other teammates. They looked scared, haven't seen that in many years. Not sure what to think about the hawks right now.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Port Adelaide -7.5, 1.91 X 3 units (CB) WIN

Round 8: 1-3 -0.27 units

Port continue to impress, they are unstoppable at home at the moment.

[Coopertrooper]

YTD: 26-28 -3.06 units

Will likely not have time to make any plays this week, but this comes at a good time. The bye rounds are a good time to step back and ease up! Will hopefully be back to having a lot more spare time on my hands in a month or so.

[therealdealau]

YTD: 26-28 -3.06 units

Will likely not have time to make any plays this week, but this comes at a good time. The bye rounds are a good time to step back and ease up! Will hopefully be back to having a lot more spare time on my hands in a month or so.

Bye's are a great time to sit back and reassess, no doubt you will be back. What do you think of your Pies heading to Adelaide tomorrow?

[Coopertrooper]

Bye's are a great time to sit back and reassess, no doubt you will be back. What do you think of your Pies heading to Adelaide tomorrow?

Thanks mate. Have barely had a chance to think about it, although I have not thought highly of the crows this year (wasn't expecting too much from them this year anyway), so I think we should get the job done. I've been surprised with how well our backline has held up.

[Coopertrooper]

Round 10

Still very busy and am happy to take it easy again this week. Just the one game I've looked at:

Play #1 - Collingwood -22.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (Lux)

Play #2 - Collingwood 1-39, $2.10 X 1 unit (CB)

I think the pies will respond fiercely at home and I think West Coast can be suspect on the road (I also think a side that has a bad game after the bye is likely to bounce back the next week when the line is softer). I like the chance of a middle here, 1 unit on each.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Collingwood -22.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (Lux) LOSS

Play #2 - Collingwood 1-39, $2.10 X 1 unit (CB) WIN

Unlucky to have both key backs go down injured in the first half, but lucky that the pies somehow dug deep to ensure this one wasn't a wipeout.

[b]Round 10: 1-1 +0.10 units

Unlikely to make any plays tomorrow, will try and make some time for next week if possible. Can't wait until I have more time on my hands again in a few weeks to really analyse some plays.

[Coopertrooper]

YTD: 27-29 -2.96 units


Round 11

Play #1 - Sydney 1-39, $2.20 X 2 units (Lad)

Play #2 - Carlton -15.5, $1.92 X 1.5 units (Lux)

Play #3 - Gold Coast +7.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (Lux)

Play #4 - West Coast -8.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (SB)

Play #5 - Sydney H2H/ML, $1.42 x 1 unit (SB) *This match has a money back special

Play #6 - Carlton H2H/ML, $1.42 x 1 unit (SB) *This match has a money back special

Play #7 - Gold Coast H2H/ML, $2.15 X 1 unit (SB) *This match has a money back special

Play #8 - West Coast H2H/ML, $1.62 X 1 unit (SB) *This match has a money back special

Play #9 - Parlay: Total Odds $4.20 X 0.5 units (Lad)

-Sydney 1-39, $2.20
-Carlton -16.5, $1.91

Play #10 - Parlay: Total Odds $17.04 X 0.25 units

-Sydney 1-39, $2.15
-Carlton -16.5, $1.92
-Gold Coast H2H, $2.15
-West Coast -8.5, $1.92

Finally had some time this week to look over some plays. With a good special on offer (money back if team leads at the end of a quarter but lose the match), there are a number of plays this week.

The swans should simply be too strong. Geelong are starting to taper just a little, while the swans have their forwardline clicking quickly and their midfield back into good form. The loss of 2 key cats backmen (Lonergan and Enright) hurts, despite the return of Johnson. The cats are not a side to get blown away often, so the $2.20 available for the 1-39 margin looks very juicy. It is my favourite play of the week, hence the 2 unit play. Another unit on the win with the special.

The other play I am quite keen on are Carlton. They've found a way to get output out of key players and will be keen to put some demons to rest against the lions. Brisbane are playing horrible football, back to the lazy side we saw in the first 1/3 of last year. They should be blasted away. 1.5 units on Carlton at the line (you can never be too careful with the blues, they are still an ordinary side) and 1 on the win.

The suns have been impressive thus far, although their draw has been very soft. With a tough 6 weeks ahead, the suns need to keep winning games. Despite having to travel to Adelaide, I think they will get over the crows, whom I still don't see as a real chance to play finals football. There seems to be an a train of thought going around that the suns will have been too distracted by Ablett being looked at by the MRP, with the suns odds drifting ever since he got off (as surprising as that sentence is!). But don't be fooled - the suns would have been expecting him to get off that charge, as did most of the football road. Their focus is on securing their first finals spot and giving themselves the best shot at a top 4 finish as they can. Getting a 7.5 start is too juicy to let pass, as well as the win bet special. 1 unit on the line and 1 unit on the win.

West coast fly home to play the roos, after a disappointing display, where they could not capitalise on a shattered backline, despite their huge amount of tall forward talent. They'll want to atone and are back at home. The roos have been Jekyll and Hyde all season, but they have been good on the road, with big wins against the swans and freo. Can they strike to make it 3/3? I don't see it happening, with West Coast eager to ensure they keep touch with the 8, while the roos again appear to be drifting along without any real sense of purpose. 1 unit at the line and 1 unit the win.

I've also parlayed up my favourite 2 plays (Sydney 1-39 and Carlton -16.5) with the best combined odds I can see, and also a parlay of all 4 games, expending 0.5 and 0.25 units respectively.

Always important to get a good feel of things early after the bye, so hopefully it will be a good start as we head towards the second half of the season!

[Coopertrooper]

Shocking start to the week. Can't believe I put faith in the cats keeping it close instead of taking the line. Painful way to continue a frustrating season at the moment. Hopefully the rest of the weekend will be better!

Play #1 - Sydney 1-39, $2.20 X 2 units (Lad) LOSS

Play #5 - Sydney H2H/ML, $1.42 x 1 unit (SB) WIN

Play #9 - Parlay: Total Odds $4.20 X 0.5 units (Lad) LOSS

-Sydney 1-39, $2.20
-Carlton -16.5, $1.91

Play #10 - Parlay: Total Odds $17.04 X 0.25 units LOSS

-Sydney 1-39, $2.15
-Carlton -16.5, $1.92
-Gold Coast H2H, $2.15
-West Coast -8.5, $1.92

Round 11: 1-3 -2.33 units

[Coopertrooper]

Play #11 - Collingwood -10.5 First Quarter, $1.90 X 1.5 units (SB)

Collingwood should come out of the blocks strongly tonight. They know this is a game where they need to make up some percentage and I expect to see it from the outset. -10.5 is a good line, the $1.90 may not be around for long. Every other book has it below $1.90, so there has been some money around for it already.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #11 - Collingwood -10.5 First Quarter, $1.90 X 1.5 units (SB) WIN

Good start to finish performance.

Round 11: -0.98 units

[sando]

Hey Coop, haven't been around SBR for awhile but was just checking in at my thread and noticed that comment you left about me. Very kind words mate, thank you.

[Coopertrooper]

Hey Coop, haven't been around SBR for awhile but was just checking in at my thread and noticed that comment you left about me. Very kind words mate, thank you.

I don't quite recall what I said haha, but you are most welcome sando.

Play #2 - Carlton -15.5, $1.92 X 1.5 units (Lux) LOSS

Play #3 - Gold Coast +7.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (Lux) LOSS

Play #4 - West Coast -8.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (SB) LOSS

Play #6 - Carlton H2H/ML, $1.42 x 1 unit (SB) PUSH

Play #7 - Gold Coast H2H/ML, $2.15 X 1 unit (SB) LOSS

Play #8 - West Coast H2H/ML, $1.62 X 1 unit (SB) LOSS

Wow, what a disaster. Carlton were pathetic, rolling over after leading by enough to cover with 10 minutes to go to BRISBANE. West Coast got completely rolled at home, their season is done. The suns lost such a vital game, their spot in the 8 will now be eyed off by sides like the bombers and crows. I got it terribly wrong on the suns and eagles.

Round 11: 2-1-8 -6.48 units

YTD: 29-1-37 -9.44 units

Taking it on straight after the bye round ended in a smashing. poor luck earlier in the year is being compounded by the last few months. I'll have to think about what types of plays I'll be making in the future.

[beeeej12]

Don't worry mate you weren't the only one who had a poor week! Get back on it next week and trust your instincts

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks mate. Hopefully it was just a one-off week.

This season can still be rescued, with the pre-season bets looking like returning a profit. Just need to undo the damage from round 11 quickly!