TGM's NRL Spread System - 2013

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I like the Tigers with the start, AT cambelltown it is a generous quote and the factors you have indicated are all very valid, I also think it willbe Farrah leading the charge as he has copped some criticism for his game in the SOO. Manly are a serious team and with Storm faltering they will want to consolidate third place. These two teams have played their last four games at Bluetounge so the Tigers will enjoy home ground for a change, They won an epic clash at allianz in 2010 , I believe Manly were winning 18-0 at one point off hand.
I have been backing dogs over 3.50 for a year or so now since rohan alerted me to it and its profitability. A half unit stake returns a good dividend at season end, especially when 7.00 Dragons got up last week. Its not for everyone as it is a grind and you don't get a lot of winners but when you win the reward is more than justified, although i cant really see Manly losing it , they will have a slip up game soon and this could be it , as we all know the numbers dont lie. Excellent work TGM , a lot of factors pointing to a big effort by the Tigers, and if by chance Benji goes off even a win, but his last game at Campbelltown will see him do something.

Unlucky Angelo, the Tigers had plenty of field position and chances to win.
Stupid mistakes and really poor games from Marshall and especially Anasta cost us the cover.
Some woeful defending by the Tigers outside backs on Matai and Cherry-Evans at the death too.

I don't blame the Tigers for getting rid of Marshall.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 20 PLAYS

Bet # 52 - Cowboys -6 @ $1.93 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 53 - Tigers +13.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Terrible round last week, the saving grace was that I didn't play all of my leans, otherwise I'd be staring at a 0-5 round.
As they say in poker, it's not how much you make when you win, but how little you drop when you lose.

The Cowboys were obviously a team in disarray, with their coach getting punted earlier in the week after the loss to the Broncos.
The Tigers really should have at least covered the spread with the amount of ball and favourable penalty count they had, but it wasn't to be.

Round 20 Total: 0-2 [-2.00 UNITS]

Season Total: 29-1-22 [+9.08 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Round 21 - Leans based on power ratings:

Knights -6
Panthers +13.5
Sharks +7.5
Sea Eagles -18.5
Rabbitohs -9.5
Raiders +4
Titans -4
Bulldogs -5.5

Bold are the most likely plays at this stage

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Knights v Broncos
I have this line set at 8.5, so a flat 6 start looks good for the Knights.
The Broncos have shown phuck all this season, apart from their gutsy win last week away at the Cowboys.
Was this a turn-around game or just a flash in the pan? Or a reflection of the state of affairs in Townsville?
The Knights have lost big Willie and Snowden is still suspended, with McManus under a cloud.
There is talk Hannant and Reed could return for the Broncos.
Bennett up against his old team should make for an interesting clash, although he has a terrible record coaching against them.
The Knights need to keep winning to guarantee a spot in the 8, while the Broncos season is over with another loss.
The Knights have been solid at home, while the Broncos have been decent away from home.
This game is shaping up as a grindfest, with defensive machine Stagg moving into the centres for the Broncos.
I'm predicting a low-scoring game and as such, can the Knights cover the six points?
They've managed to bounce back strongly the following home game after a home loss.
They've been the better team all year and should win this.
VERDICT - Still undecided, but leaning heavily to the Knights -6 ( I can see some 5.5 too, which is even better)

[Shazzadude]

I like the start for the Sharks. The Warriors have struggled against the Sharks in recent times, a converted try plus change is generous.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I like the start for the Sharks. The Warriors have struggled against the Sharks in recent times, a converted try plus change is generous.

Rightly so.
And with Gallen and Lewis coming back into the team, you'd expect a close, tight encounter.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Warriors v Sharks - GAME STARTS AT 3PM TODAY

I have this set at -4.5 for the Warriors.
The line is now out to 8 on most books.
A while ago, a list was published showing how much key players could move lines depending if they played or not.
Apparently Paul Gallen topped the list, ahead of the likes of Andrew Johns, Darren Lockyer and Jonathan Thurston.
From memory, his absence would move the line about 8-10 points.
Based on that stat, if Gallen wasn't playing the line would be in the vicinity of 16-18 points, which is ridiculous.
His impact may be less this season, but he is no doubt a vital member of his team.
I liked the way the Sharks bounced back last week after their belting by the Roosters.
I also expect the Warriors to come out a little flat (like the Dragons did last week) after beating the reigning premiers.
Looking at both teams, I can see some really poor defenders out wide for both teams, most notably Carney and Hurrell - who are conversely their respective teams' most potent attackers.
I expect both to get targeted in defence, with both playing on their team's right side.
The play for the Warriors would be to run hard at Carney to tire him out in defence and hence limiting his impact in attack.
I also expect plenty of second phase play from the Warriors with their customary offloads from guys like Mateo and Matulino.
In short, plenty of points and the Sharks to keep it close.

VERDICT: Sharks +8 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

BONUS PLAY (Not system related): OVER 37.5
Both kickers are on fire at the moment, striking them at over 90%, missing only 1 or 2 of their last 25 or so shots.
5 of the 7 games this year at Mt Smart have gone over this total.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Eels v Sea Eagles

Line has drifted from 18 to 20.5 at some books.
The Eels are hyping this game up, it's the 30 year anniversary of their 1983 Grand Final win over Manly.
However what most are waiting for is "Allgood v Matai - II".
The Sea Eagles belted the Eels 50-10 at Brookvale earlier this year, but the game will always be remembered for Allgood landing a solid combination on Manly enforcer Matai and drawing blood. Most pundits agreed that although Matai was unprepared for the hit, it couldn't have happened to a nicer bloke.
Be that as it may, Matai hasn't been able to sleep properly since and will be looking for a square up.
Keiran Foran has also been talking it up in the weeks after the first game, claiming Matai won't die wondering.
If you want to see some biff, tune in to this game as I can see plenty of punches and pushing and shoving.
I expect someone to get sent to the sin bin and would not be surprised to see Matai get sent off for a swinging arm.
The Eels are a perfect 6-0 ATS at Parramatta Stadium, even covering against the rampant Roosters.
Surely they lift for this derby game at home?
I have capped this game at 22, but other factors make it a play.
If this game was being played away, I wouldn't even take the Eels with +40.
But at home they have at least been competitive and haven't lost to anyone by more than 14 points.
Manly are also off a short turnaround after beating the Tigers in MNF, but were gifted countless tries by stupid mistakes from the Tigers.
They also have a string of 4 hard games coming up and might be looking forward to the Warriors game next week.

VERDICT: Big lean to Eels +20.5, will confirm later after more thought.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Cowboys v Rabbitohs

As predicted last week, coach Henry is now out of a job, having been sacked earlier in the week.
Another disappointing season for the Cowboys, who on paper had a roster worthy of a top 8 spot.
Many pundits had them up there challenging for the premiership.
Their season is now over, with no hope of making the finals.
The Rabbitohs got back on track last week after accounting for the hapless Titans.
I've got this game at 16, so the this low line should make it a play on the Rabbitohs at -8.
I am wary however of the whole bounce back factor of teams who sack the coach, then play like demons the weekend following.
There was obviously some bad blood between some players and the coaching staff and now that the coach is gone, then you expect the players to stage a brief recovery and play to their potential.
Is it enough to win? Maybe not in this case.
Can they keep it close? That's what I am afraid of.
However, they couldn't do it last week when their season was on the line, why do it now?
The Rabbitohs have a massive look-ahead game next week, playing the Storm at AAMI.

VERDICT: No play, just too worried about reaction to the coaching situation.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 21 PLAYS

Bet # 54 - Sharks +8 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

passing the other Saturday games

[fitguy67]

TGM, your "spidey sense" about the cowboys was bang on mate.

[angelo63]

Hey TGM
Im feeling quite confident on the Raiders this afternoon at Home against the Storm
Raiders have a flawless 8-8 record at home this season
Raiders are in some good form at the moment
Raiders have won 3 out of the last 4 against Storm and they must be the only team that has that record against them.
Storm are going through their traditional mid season slump and last season i think they lost 5 in a row before they clicked into finals gear
Storm look ahead game against Rabbitohs on friday night.
Josh Mcrone playing his 100th game will see him be more dynamic than normal, as he really is the heart and soul of the team.

The Raiders feel as they own the Storm at the moment, some teams just manage to own a team for a while and The Raiders are very confident about winning this one. They know they can win, they feel it , they breathe it , and at home that gives them the chance to show their fans they have arrived as a team.

Statistics are supporting the Raiders with the PPG at home right up near the top of the leauge.

The Bookies may have included the Storm BBF here in framing the prices as this game is closer than the 4 points offered.

4 is a important number in Rugby leauge .

Raiders also have Ferguson in the wings possibly a late inclusion by Furner to defend against the High ball Cronk so effectively uses week in and week out. Furner would of not wanted to put pressure on Ferguson by naming him early in the week, but regardless if he plays or not the Raiders will set the platform for a top 4 finish next season, by beating the best it gives the whole squad confidence and belief that they are one of the elite .

What are your thoughts mate?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Angelo,

The line of +4 definitely favours the Raiders.
I had this game capped at +2.
I agree the Raiders have been money at home this season where they have a perfect record, beating even the Roosters earlier in the year.
Just a note about the H2H results.
From my records, the Raiders have won 3 of the last 5 between the two teams, and all of those wins have come at AAMI park as HEAVY underdogs of $4 or more (like earlier this season when they went down there missing half their team and beat the Storm).
At Canberra Stadium, the Storm have won 4 of the last 5, including the last 3 in a row.
They are also used to playing in those conditions as Melbourne has a similar climate as Canberra.
Last year, the Raiders were $1.65 faves and got rolled 24-19.

Re the look-ahead for the Storm, that has lost some of the gloss as the Rabbitohs lost last night and the Storm would now be eyeing a possible top 2 spot with the Rabbits facing a very tough run home missing a few key players.

I really can't see the Storm dropping this one at this stage of the season as losing here will give teams like the Bulldogs, Sharks and Raiders a sniff of fourth position and the double chance in the semis.

This has "stay away" written all over it.
Storm win here for mine, but I'm not prepared to go against my handicap.
If anything, play them 1-12.

GL boys

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Titans v Tigers

When I saw the line at -4, I was ready to jump on the Titans.
I had this game capped at -9 for the Titans, so this was a clear play based on PR.
However, the injury crisis at the Titans has put a question mark on the play.
The Titans are without their captain Luke Bailey, livewire half Albert Kelly and fullbacks Zillman and Rankin as well as hooker Srama.
Of these, Kelly is by far the most important as he has been in great form this year.
I liked the over in this game too, but with Kelly out, the Titans ability to create is severely diminished.
Both teams commit plenty of errors in games, gifting the opposition plenty of cheap ball and field position.
Apart from their last start beating by the Rabbitohs, the Titans have been playing quite good at home and I see no reason why this should change today against an inept Tigers outfit that is all over the place at the moment.
The line has been clubbed down to 2.5, lots of love for the Tigers.
However after their shocking performance last week, I definitely don't trust them.
Another one of those games with too many variables, too shit teams out of form and playing each other.

VERDICT: Passing this one. No play

[angelo63]

Wow, I was certainly on the wrong tangent with the Raiders today. The upside was I took the over 1st half of 20 and the total of 42 which was the easiest cash of the year. Watching the Storm live at ground level was a great experience especially for my son who is learning to play the game and could see how simple and methodical play can destroy an opposition. Seeing Manu Fonua fly in the air and catch and throw that ball back into the field of play for a try was an experience i will never forget. Our players are supreme athletes in this day and age and what they are doing is mind blowing. Rugby league is a simple game, Good line speed in defense and stand deep in attack and pass the ball out to your backs who are running straight and hard. The Storm simply are robotic , before a player is tackled one of the big three is already setting the next run, they all know where to run on each tackle in a set of 6, Poetry in motion . I marvel at Smith and Slater and Cronk who for the last 8 or so years have played in the best of the nest matches and won more than 70% of the big games. Take into account SOO test matches and all the Grand finals and finals and you can count on your fingers how many of the big matches they have lost. Bellamy is the master coach, and after the demolition job today i can not see the Rabbits recovering for next week. Will be interesting to see where the line is set before this weekend it may have been Storm receiving 2 points at home , after the games the Storm may be giving the Rabbitohs 5.5. Which i don't think will be enough. The Finals will be fantastic with 4 genuine title contenders now. Luck , Injuries will play a roll but the Storm are certainly in it again. Thanks for your insight on the Raiders game TGM, I saw Joey Johns lead Newcastle to a 70 point massacre here once, and Mal lead the Raiders to a 66 point thrashing of the Roosters but this was so clinical .

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Wow, I was certainly on the wrong tangent with the Raiders today. The upside was I took the over 1st half of 20 and the total of 42 which was the easiest cash of the year. Watching the Storm live at ground level was a great experience especially for my son who is learning to play the game and could see how simple and methodical play can destroy an opposition. Seeing Manu Fonua fly in the air and catch and throw that ball back into the field of play for a try was an experience i will never forget. Our players are supreme athletes in this day and age and what they are doing is mind blowing. Rugby league is a simple game, Good line speed in defense and stand deep in attack and pass the ball out to your backs who are running straight and hard. The Storm simply are robotic , before a player is tackled one of the big three is already setting the next run, they all know where to run on each tackle in a set of 6, Poetry in motion . I marvel at Smith and Slater and Cronk who for the last 8 or so years have played in the best of the nest matches and won more than 70% of the big games. Take into account SOO test matches and all the Grand finals and finals and you can count on your fingers how many of the big matches they have lost. Bellamy is the master coach, and after the demolition job today i can not see the Rabbits recovering for next week. Will be interesting to see where the line is set before this weekend it may have been Storm receiving 2 points at home , after the games the Storm may be giving the Rabbitohs 5.5. Which i don't think will be enough. The Finals will be fantastic with 4 genuine title contenders now. Luck , Injuries will play a roll but the Storm are certainly in it again. Thanks for your insight on the Raiders game TGM, I saw Joey Johns lead Newcastle to a 70 point massacre here once, and Mal lead the Raiders to a 66 point thrashing of the Roosters but this was so clinical .

Unbelievable.
Every year, the "experts" keep writing off the Storm just after Origin and yet they come back strong at the back end and set themselves up for a charge to the GF.
The Raiders are a myth.
Every time people think they are gunning for a top 8 berth and a finals campaign, they come up with garbage like that.
Regardless of how good the Storm were today, if you are a genuine top 8 team, you don't get blown off the park, especially at home.
A few weeks ago, every Souths homie was crowing about it being their year this year - now look how quickly things change - a few crucial injuries at the this time of year and the team starts falling apart.
The Storm are definitely back and with Widdop to come back into the team, they will be even stronger.

Titans have demolished the Tigers too, 36-6.
On the right side again but didn't play it.
Ah well, at least it was a winning weekend.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

TGM, your "spidey sense" about the cowboys was bang on mate.

Thanks mate, was so close to pulling the trigger.

ROUND 21 PLAYS

Bet # 54 - Sharks +8 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Round 21 Total: 1-0 [+0.92 UNITS]

Season Total: 30-1-22 [+10.00 UNITS]

[OZnBa Fan]

Nothing for tonight mate ?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Nothing for tonight mate ?

Sorry mate, line was spot on tonight.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Lining up a play on the Eels.

Hayne is back from injury.
Kelly back in at HB.
Tigers lose Farah and Lawrence and Anasta is starting at HB.
Perfect Storm.
Eels -2 looking good atm.

Other plays I am eyeing:

Rabbitohs +8.5
Dragons +8.5
Panthers +5.5

[sando]

Lining up a play on the Eels.

Hayne is back from injury.
Kelly back in at HB.
Tigers lose Farah and Lawrence and Anasta is starting at HB.
Perfect Storm.
Eels -2 looking good atm.

Yeah me too.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Yeah me too.

Line's already been smashed to 4.
FMD!

[Dr.Gonzo]

Line's already been smashed to 4.
FMD!

-3.5 centre.

I'd expect this to go to 4.5 by kickoff.

EDIT: Lawrence is shot as a player, him being out is an advantage to Wests. Farah out is huge given the halves can't even find open men with the pass.

[hawley]

-3.5 centre.

I'd expect this to go to 4.5 by kickoff.

EDIT: Lawrence is shot as a player, him being out is an advantage to Wests. Farah out is huge given the halves can't even find open men with the pass.

Amazing how bad Lawrence has got. Never recovered from that hip injury.

Final minute of the game against the Titans and he got chased down comfortably by a back-rower.

I'm surprised so many people are willing to take a position in this game. I couldn't bring myself to touch either side.

[sando]

Yeah I think your right Hawley. I must admit I was interested at -2, however would have to have my head examined to play it at -4.5 or worse. As XYZ mentioned the over looks the play (if any)?

[hawley]

Yeah I think your right Hawley. I must admit I was interested at -2, however would have to have my head examined to play it at -4.5 or worse. As XYZ mentioned the over looks the play (if any)?

The lack of defence from both sides suggests it should said over.

The offensive execution from Anasta, Marshall, Roberts and Kelly could send it under even if neither side is trying to get a stop.

I think it will be a high scoring match but not before we see multiple passes go to ground and plenty of stutters.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Yeah guys, this is a NO PLAY at more than 4.

I got it at -2 at 195, who have it at -3 now.

This game might set the record for most missed tackles and errors in a game EVER!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Storm v Rabbitohs

The Storm are coming off a high after tearing the Raiders a new one in Canberra last week.
Up against a formidable Bunnies team this week, they won't be afforded the same latitude.
I expect a tight game and the Rabbitohs will be smarting after their abysmal effort against the Cows last start.
I also attribute a part of that to them looking ahead to this game.
Losing a player during the match, especially one in a key position, can leave a team floundering.
I expect them to play better this week, even though Sutton will be out.
There is talk that Inglis may make a return tomorrow night too.
They have a formidable pack which can definitely match it with the Storm.
They will also be pumped after getting beaten by the Storm at home earlier this week.
Interesting to note that apart from last week, the Bunnies have not lost a match by more than 7 points.

VERDICT: Taking Souths +9.5

Eels v Tigers

Lots said about the game, but with Hayne returning, the Eels have another dimension in attack.
The Tigers were terrible, their passing is atrocious, especially Anasta and Marshall, who are playing again this week.
Take Farah out of the equation and they will be absolutely lost.
My only issue is the Eels taking it easy with the news Farah will miss.
I already locked the Eels in at -2.
However, for the sake of record keeping, that is now long gone, so the play will be at -3 which is still available.

VERDICT: Eels -3

Panthers v Cowboys
After the season they have just had, how are the Cowboys giving points to any team on the road?
Apart from beating the hapless Eels by 4 points at Parra stadium earlier in the year, they have not won another game in Sydney.
The Panthers have been poor in their last 3 games, but are still in the running for a top 8 spot.
The game is being played at 6:30 at night at the foot of the mountains - bitterly cold time of year and completely different to conditions the Cows are used to.
The Cowboys have not played there in 2 years and have not won there since 2007.
I am also considering a play on the Panthers ML - Sando, be interested to hear your thoughts.

VERDICT: Panthers +6

Broncos v Dragons
Dragons have a horrible record in Brisbane.
They are playing the Sharkies next week so they will definitely be eyeing the derby game.
I don't have the Broncos that much of a favourite but I am going to pass the Dragons this week.

GL to all

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 22 PLAYS

Bet # 55 - Rabbitohs +9.5 @ $1.94 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 56 - Eels -3 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 57 - Panthers +6 @ $1.95 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Eels win 26-22 in a game where the lead changed 8 times.
as predicted, 4 points was the critical number.

Can't believe the refs gave Waqa that try, he grounded it short.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 22 PLAYS

Bet # 55 - Rabbitohs +9.5 @ $1.94 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT- LOSS

Bet # 56 - Eels -3 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 57 - Panthers +6 @ $1.95 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Should have played the Dragons.

Round 22 Total: 1-2 [-1.05 UNITS]

Season Total: 30-1-22 [+8.95 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Injuries are biting hard into plenty of teams at the business end of the season.

In more news, the Raiders are lurching from one disaster to another with Ferguson now rumoured to be asking for a release from his contract.

Leans so far:

Titans +9.5

[angelo63]

Hi mate
I am also keen on the Titans +9.5 , they are in form after the big win against the Dogs and also lots to play for. Last year the Titans won this corresponding match 18-0 and were even bigger dogs than this week.

Not sure whats going on at the Raiders, Mundine has come out and said he does not believe it is true, but you just never know, I feel Khoder might be getting his fingers in the pie somewhere. Milford is a family issue , he is a young kid who has had a huge carrot dangled in front of him to return home, I feel the Broncos have gone to his family to help sway the young superstar in the making move camp. I cant see the raiders releasing either at this stage.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Also eyeing these:

Dragons +10.5
Panthers +15.5
Tigers +26.5
Eels +15.5

Angelo, Sando, Rohan - what are your thoughts?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I feel there will be a little revenge this weekend for games played earlier in the season, so limiting most of the plays.

The Dragons will struggle with all their injuries and the Sharks will be smarting from the upset loss earlier in the season at Shark Park.

The Panthers are also struggling at the moment and have really lost their way. I still think the line is quite steep as the Warriors can play like shit on any given day, but after getting trounced by 60 points at Penrith, they will be looking at returning the favour this weekend.

Still eyeing the Tigers, but it looks unlikely.

ROUND 23 PLAYS

Bet # 58 - Eels +14.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 59 - Titans +10 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT