Looking at these at the moment, will confirm tomorrow.
Eels +6.5
Panthers -2
Sharks -2
Eels +6.5
Panthers -2
Sharks -2
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Comment -
Don't hate the Raiders, i think they are exciting to watch when they are on, they just give teams way too much headstart and only decide to start playing serious after 20 mins. In the end, that's how the game panned out too.
By the way, I'm definitely not a Dragons or Tigers fan.
Bulldogs all the way!Comment -
Apologies for not confirming my plays, but ran out of time last weekend.
Plays ended up going 2-1, but will not be included in the official tally.
This weekend, I am looking at these plays:
Tigers +8.5
Panthers +6.5
Storm +4
Sea Eagles -6.5
Melbourne and Manly will be looking at strong performances before their BYE round prior to Origin, even though they are on a short week and off a grinding MNF game.
Also liking the Warriors, but 3.5 is just not enough.
They have been very competitive at home and the Knights have been really poor on the road.
I am expecting them to muscle up after last week's debacle against the Panthers.
Will update tomorrow with more details and confirm bets.Comment -
I'm with you on the tigers, they have already burnt me a few times this year but they just have to eventually show up for a game. Best of luck.Comment -
so you think pound tigers over cowboys?Comment -
ROUND 10 PLAYS
Bet # 28 - Tigers +8 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT
(TAB has +9.5 @ $1.75 - probably not worth it for the reduced return)
Bet # 29 - Panthers +7.5 @ $1.93 (Bet 365) - 2 UNITS
Bet # 30 - Storm +4.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 31 - Sea Eagles -6.5 @ $1.93 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT
Good luck to all.Comment -
Not pound exactly.
Tigers have been very ordinary over the last month.
Anasta back gives them options on both sides of the ruck.
The Cowboys have been solid, but just can't seem to win in Sydney.
The rain should help keep this game close.
I am expecting the Cowboys to win, but the Tigers are due for a bounce back performance after some dismal form.
Mick Potter must surely be on thin ice.
The CEO resigned during the week, so the pressure is surely on the coaching staff and players to pull their fingers out.
If they get trounced again, then it is basically curtains for the coach.
My biggest worry is Thurston selling his dummies near the line and terrorising the Tigers' inexperienced outside backs.
The Tigers must control the ball and not give the Cowboys too much easy field position.Comment -
Manly score 4 tries to 2 and fail to convert any of them to kill the cover.
All we needed was just one conversion from Jamie Lyon to give us a perfect 4-0 sweep.
Anyhow, the big play on the Panthers got up and the Storm showed again they are a class team and can step up when it counts.
Round 11 Total: 3-1 [+2.69 UNITS]
Season Total: 14-12 [+5.15 UNITS]Comment -
No plays last week due to only 4 games being played and key players missing for Origin.
The rep season plays havoc with handicapping NRL - i don't like the way it is set out as too many teams are forced to play games without their best players and sometimes that can be the difference between a top 4 finish or even making the top 8.
Moving on to this weekend, here are the plays I am looking at:
Knights -7.5
Panthers -10.5
Manly -2.5
Broncos +8Comment -
Deciding to tread carefully.... too many variables as Origin plays havoc with team rhythm and players backing up as well as teams coming off byes.
Letting the Manly play go as the Warriors have been very good at Mt Smart this season, having only lost the one game to the Rabbitohs by 2 points and beating some decent opposition in the other 3 games.
Also passing on the Broncos given their Origin players backing up as well as Hodges likely to miss the game. The Raiders at home on Monday night in a freezing Canberra is a tough proposition.
Which leaves us with 2 plays this week. Although I really like the Panthers and Knights, I am going conservative.
The Dragons are in turmoil, with Soward dropped to reserve grade for unknown reasons. The Knights have been solid at home this year, going 5-1 H2H and 4-2 ATS. The Dragons on the other hand are 2-5 H2H and 3-4 ATS. The Knights have announced that Craig Gower will be joining them for the rest of the season - Danny Weidler is licking his lips in anticipation.
The Panthers have also been great at home, knocking off the Storm in the process. They are 4-2 H2H and 5-1 ATS. The Tigers have been woeful this year and have lost Robbie Farah for a couple of weeks. The line has moved at most books but you can still find some 10.5 around.
The Tigers are 0-5 H2H and 1-4 ATS away from home.
ROUND 13 PLAYS
Bet # 32 - Knights -7.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 33 - Panthers -10.5 @ 1.87 (Bet365) - 1 UNIT
Best of luck to all.Comment -
ROUND 14 PLAYS
Bet # 34 - Cowboys +6 @ $1.88 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 35 - Panthers +12 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 36 - Rabbitohs -8.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 1 UNITComment -
Was very close to going another unit on the Cowboys - my only concern is that there seems to be something amiss up there in Townsville. I am not sure if there is issues among the playing group or if the players want the coach out - too much talent to be languishing in 2nd last spot on the ladder. This is a statement game for mine, they lose here and it is pretty much curtains for the season and you'd think Neil Henry is a dead man walking.
The Dragons are ripe for the taking after somehow managing to beat the Knights in Newcastle last week and the press blowing smoke up Josh Dugan's ass - FFS, the bloke was on the nose not more than 2 months ago, now he's the next phucking immortal? He doesn't deserve an Origin spot in my opinion, needs to do hell of a lot more to redeem himself.
Raiders giving a 2 try start handicap? Yes the game is in Canberra and it will be cold, but it gets a bit nippy at the foot of the mountains too. The Panthers got a kick up the bum last week, throwing away a game they had in the bag - Cleary will have them focused this week and they welcome back Matt Moylan who has been great for them this year. Raiders winger Sandor Earl comes in for the injured Edrick Lee - Earl is under investigation by ASADA for allegedly taking peptides in the 2011 season.
Rabbitohs are going great guns - the Titans should be getting more points in this game - even though it is in Cairns, I am expecting the Rabbitohs to keep rolling.Comment -
Hey mate, you forgot to add your round 11 results into your overall results. Your season total should be a little better at 17-15!Comment -
Other plays I was eyeing:
Manly -2.5
Storm -12.5
Roosters -10
Bulldogs are getting way too much respect from the bookies based on how they've been playing, but I expect them to be pumped for this game. Hasler returns to Brookie with ex-Sea Eagles Hodkinson and T-Rex and the Dogs will be looking to play much better than earlier in the year when Manly strangled them at ANZ Stadium. Passing this one.
I think the Storm will be looking to pick up as many points as they can during Origin, but apart from last week, they have struggled to put teams away at home. The Knights are notoriously shocking away from home, but will be pumped after last week's debacle at home to the Dragons. The Knights are expecting some key players to return in Buderus and Uate - It might not be enough against a rampant Storm team, but again, not worth risking units here.
The Roosters much vaunted defence has struggled over the last few rounds and they are now conceding 3-4 tries a game more than usual. They have been rock solid at home for most of the season, but faltered last home game v Melbourne. This looks to be a let-down spot for the Warriors after a very tight win at home against the Sea Eagles. The Warriors have come good the last few rounds on the road and my concern is that this combined with the Roosters' recent frailties in defence might blow the minus cover. Passing.Comment -
He's half way there already mate...
Who else are we gonna play? No snake, no Hayne, please don't say Michael Gordon. Dugan is the reincarnation of Brett Mullin, although not as mentally stable.
PS - C'arn the Raiders!!Comment -
He's a phucking soft c0ck.He's half way there already mate...
Who else are we gonna play? No snake, no Hayne, please don't say Michael Gordon. Dugan is the reincarnation of Brett Mullin, although not as mentally stable.
PS - C'arn the Raiders!!
I'd prefer Nathan Merritt and I'm not really a fan of his either. James Tedesco????Comment -
As expected, the Cowboys not only covered, they won outright. Should have ended up going the 2 units.
The Panthers scored late to give us our first push of the season - This game also highlighted the need to shop for lines - most books had +11.5, which would have resulted in a loss.
The Rabbitohs were great when in possession, but very ordinary in defence. Jamal Idris had a field day on the right edge, making Bryson Goodwin his biyatch for the afternoon. Albert Kelly was also very good for the Titans and Aidan Sezer could not miss a kick. He's slotting them at 93% this season - remarkable! (I can't believe the Bulldogs let him walk last year).
As mentioned in other threads, the standard of refereeing was terrible and some dodgy decisions probably cost us the cover.
Anyhow, another BYE weekend coming up with Origin players out of teams and only 4 games being played.
Thanks to Cooper Trooper for picking up the mistake in the tally.
Round 14 Total: 1-1-1 [-0.12 UNITS]
Season Total: 18-1-16 [+3.03 UNITS]Comment -
Hi guys, sat out last week due to the Origin absentees, although I liked the Tigers at the spread.
Anyhow, onto this weekend, lines are getting sharper, but here are my tips:
ROUND 16 PLAYS
Bet # 37 - Rabbitohs - 10.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 38 - Storm -4 @ $1.90 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 39 - Broncos +8.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 40 - Panthers -3.5 @ $1.90 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT
Good luck to all this weekend.
P.S. I like the Knights in this spot, but the line favours the Titans who have been very competitive this year. Still deciding whether or not to play this one.Comment -
Passing the play on the Knights, the Titans have been competitive in nearly all their matches this year.
The Titans also have a good record at Newcastle.
2-1 so far for the round, let's hope the Broncos can keep it close for a great finish.
Storm obviously missed Cam Smith, and it looks like they are following last year's script, where they take it easy during Origin, then make a charge to the GF.
Won't be touching them again until a game or two after Origin 3.Comment -
Knights have destroyed the Titans already.
36-0 after 32 minsComment -
Go the Knights! They're my team but fk me I have no idea which team is turning up on a given weekend.
Knights at HS has been $ most of the year though, I was thinking of putting a crazy Knights -24 bet on Centrebet for shits and giggles, as I thought if they beat them by that away they can do it at home. Another woulda coulda shoulda ...Comment -
Comment -
impressive...about 5 units won over 50-ish units risked...about 10% yield...
TGM for spreads and THG for totals and SND for other bets (ML/margin of victory/props) quite solid down the lineComment -
Thanks for stopping by Fitguy.... would ideally like to get it up to 15-20% yield and win rate of 65%.
Things should start improving once Origin finishes.Comment -
i've only been watching NRL for these last few months...but yesterday's Warriors-Bronco's game seems to my uneducated eye "as good as it gets" execution- and entertainment-wise...both teams played well, start to finish...and the intensity of the hitting was, as the announcer said "origin-like"...
NRL now joins NHL as the only two team sports i bet on that I also actually watch as entertainment (i absolutely loathe NBA...and after developing a taste for NRL i simply can't watch NFL/CFL)...only hockey and rugby have that special combination of "tough as nails"hitting and continuous flow that American-sports have just killed with their goddam whistles and time-outsComment -
Impressive record TGM, is your analysis purely numbers based or is it subjective aswell?Comment -
Haven't seen the game, but it is good to see others around the world getting into the NRL.
Agree that probably all American sports have gone way too far with technology - I am hoping the NRL keep it where it is and not reach the stage of over-officiating.
I also hope that they reverse the ban on the shoulder charge - the game is tough, no need to make it softerComment -
Rohan,
I use both methods.
I use the numbers to handicap each game.
I then compare my lines with what the books have and look for an edge for each game.
Once I select the games that I believe have a weak line, I look at other situational factors that might affect the handicap.
Factors include injuries (although the impact is more often overstated), results of past meetings, revenge factor, heavy losses or big wins. etc.
When a game ticks all the boxes, I will look at a 2 or 3 unit play (or rarely, a 4 or 5).
If it gets close but there may be one or two factors that don't align, I look to play for 1 unit or a max of 2.
It gets tricky this time of year because of Origin - I can't think of another sport where this happens.Comment
