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My plays for Saturday
Hi guys I apologize for not posting last Saurday. Here are my plays today along with the link to each race:
WOODBINE RACE 3 # 4 IWANTITALLRIGHTNOW - PINO MICHAEL
KEENLAND RACE 7 # 10 FLAPSUP - KENNEALLY EDDIE
PHILADELPHIA RACE 8 # 2 MY MAGNOLIA - DUTROW ANTHONY
GULFSTREAM RACE 10 # 7 Z VILNA - PLETCHER TODD
GULFSTREAM RACE 11 # 6 FLAVOR - NESS JAMIE
MOUNTAINEER RACE 9 # 9 INFATUATION - COWANS WILLIAM
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Thanks Ed for posting your selections, always appreciated.
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I passed the Woodbine Race 3 # 4 bet Michael Pino his M/L was 7/2 Pino has a 31% win rate on Lay 1 Sprint I needed 5/2 to bet his stat.
He went of at 6/5 that odds level has a 45% win rate
He came in 3rd good pass the stat was an underlayComment -
I bet Anthony Dutrow at PRX to win he went of at 12/1 he came in 3rd I am 0 for 1Comment -
Eddie Kenneally at Keenland race 7 went off at 2/1 he came in 5th 0 for 2Comment -
I'm confused? Why is this not a bet as a favorite at 6/5 and up?
L1S 45+D If Fav 68-31-8-7 @ 45% 57% 67%6-5 1.20 45% $4.40 Comment -
I chose Pino on his overall stat on L1S 151-48-31% his M/L was 7/2 he could have been a bet as the favorite on his favorite stats if I wanted to wait and see if he would be the favorite. The lowest M/L I start with is 3/1 betting favorites that low is a financial trap. If this race were to run 100 times that means Pino would have to win 45 of those races and he would only break even.Comment -
I looked at my betting records for the past 1 1/2 years It included all bets a selected and made as well as all bets I selected and passed. 143 of my bets went of at 6/5 53 won a 37% win rate If I had bet $2 to win on all 143 I would have invested $286 bucks and I would have cashed on 53 with an average payout of $4.40 for a total of $233.60 returned I would have lost money on the 143 bets.Comment -
Thank you for the explanation, next question, no plays at Gulstream today due to mud/slop conditions, correct?Comment -
That is correctComment -
Well, looks like you had a couple 3rds... is this normal?Hi guys I apologize for not posting last Saurday. Here are my plays today along with the link to each race:
WOODBINE RACE 3 # 4 IWANTITALLRIGHTNOW - PINO MICHAEL
KEENLAND RACE 7 # 10 FLAPSUP - KENNEALLY EDDIE
PHILADELPHIA RACE 8 # 2 MY MAGNOLIA - DUTROW ANTHONY
http://edbain.com/pp/Parx Racing/4-7-2012/8#2
GULFSTREAM RACE 10 # 7 Z VILNA - PLETCHER TODD
GULFSTREAM RACE 11 # 6 FLAVOR - NESS JAMIE
MOUNTAINEER RACE 9 # 9 INFATUATION - COWANS WILLIAM
http://edbain.com/pp/Mountaineer/4-7-2012/9#9Comment -
For approximately the last 2 years I've made 1,825 win bets, 481 won, a 26% win rate. 788 win/placed for a 43% place rate and 1,027 showed, for a 56% show rate. Overall the 4 + 30s and Automatics are there. It's always a choice how you want to play. I'm a win bettor but I have friends who bet the exacta with the 4 + 30 and Automatics and Susan, my wife who is the best player I know, plays trifectas for 3rd using the 4 + 30 all the time. So it's a choice that players have to make on how they want to play statistics. I chose win betting because of the stats and because it's the safest way to play. Susan is a bomber. She's hit $26,000 trifectas that cost $6 in a 3 horse box. The stats are in the money on my selections at a very high rate and it can be for you too. Just depends on how you want to bet them.Comment -
Fair enough... Your stats have really helped me at times, but I am still a "newbie" at reading it and hope to get a better feel for it soon.Comment -
Looking to find ways to use the stats that Ed provides is part of the learning experience, I still rely on the DRF for most of my info, but the Bain stats augment my capping by providing a edge that I didn't have before, the added detail is good for those who can learn an effective way to use it.
A perfect example would be fellow poster MrBrown, as he explained earlier in the thread, he has found his method, and from reading here it appears he has made it work well. I don't believe Bain stats are a fix-all/cure all, but I do believe that Bain stats can and are an invaluable tool to aid us in solving our puzzles.Comment -
At Gulfstream in the 1st, the only 4+30 in the field wins at odds of 11-1.
W/Trn 81-26-13-15 4+30 32% 48% 66%Comment -
The only 4+30 in the race wins the 1st, and in the 2nd race another 4+30 runs 2nd.
Some very nice prices if you're wheeling doubles, and even better if you are wheeling exactas up and down.
1st race - Gulfstream Park - April 08, 2012 10 Tale of a Champion 25.00 11.80 8.20 8 Whisper Onthe Wind 4.20 3.00 1 Interrogate Me 11.40
$2 Exacta 10-8 102.20 $1 Superfecta 10-8-1-4 2,078.20 $1 Trifecta 10-8-1 418.20 2nd race - Gulfstream Park - April 08, 2012 9 Phoebe Moon 53.20 21.40 11.00 10 Miss Larue 13.00 7.60 1 More Than Crafty 3.20
$2 Daily Double 10-9 327.40 $2 Exacta 9-10 817.60 $1 Superfecta 9-10-1-6 5,701.50 $1 Trifecta 9-10-1 1,198.40 $2 Consolation Double 10-7 21.20 Comment -
Again in the 3rd race at Gulfstream, the only 4+30 in the race wins at 6-1 odds, beating a 4/5 shot.
3rd race - Gulfstream Park - April 08, 2012 2 On Time Again 14.20 5.00 3.80 4 Deverell 2.80 2.40 1 Here's d'Bride 4.40
$2 Daily Double 9-2 483.60 $2 Exacta 2-4 30.60 $1 Superfecta 2-4-1-11 358.90 $1 Trifecta 2-4-1 47.00 $1 Pick 3 10-9-2 (3 correct) 1,349.20 $1 Consolation Pick 3 10-7-2 (3 correct) 65.40 Comment -
Yeah I had Miss Larue to win and had On time again in the 3rd raceComment -
It's good to hear that you cashed.
These are kind of items we should be looking for, the criteria being that the horse is the only 4+30 in the race and closing odds are above 5-1, charting these types and checking the ROI over the long run will tells us if it profitable to pursue this angle.
Of course lets not limit ourselves, lets look for other ways to gain an edge too, the more we know, the better.Comment -
In the 7th at Gulfstream the #12 horse is the only 4+30 in the race, currently ay 7-1 odds, lets see how he fares.Comment -
#12 did not run well.Comment -
This time was a runout, but to be fair, we need a much larger sample, we need hundreds if not thousands of examples of the results from the same situation. We may have to limit it to just dirt races? We may have to place other restrictions on the play, we are learning.Comment -
Ed must of been proud of On Time Again, in one of his news letters last year he said, "Holy Bull is one of my favorite horses. I never saw him live, just on TV. He was the fastest horse I had ever seen. He would get to the lead and control the pace and wait for another runner to pull up to him.....Holy Bull has had the good life for many years since his retirement and the new profession in the breeding shed.....Susan purchased a lithograph of Holy Bull for me. When I see one of his offspring I look to see if he is tall and gray and maybe I will see one of his sons run with that push button speed of his dad. Holy Bull has produced some really good runners
the sire of On Time Again, you guessed it, lolComment -
As good as Nick Canani was a Gulfstream, and he did have a very good meet, how good can he be at Calder?
Will he send out a winner or two on opening day?
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Why no stats for Keenland?Comment -
"We are performing a much anticipated upgrade to the website and the statistics and during this process the program is not recording all races, odds, and stats. Rather than take the entire site completely down, we will stop posting the racetracks tonight that do not have all the races until the update is complete. Our programmers expect this to be some time on Friday. We will post a message here and on twitter once everything is ready and I'm certain you will see that this major upgrade was well worth this temporary inconvenience."Comment -
me too
LoneStar starts tonight
Trainer stats for last season
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