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speaking of...[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Entry Update[/COLOR]Caldera has been entered in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for next Friday the 17th at Oaklawn Park. He'll be the #9 of a field of 9 carded as the day's second race. Post time is 12:58 p.m. CT. Your colt will wear blinkers for this try.
Note that this race is open to 3-year-olds and up. It's admittedly a bit early in the year to be facing older horses with a sophomore, but Oaklawn tends to write races this way much earlier in the season than most tracks and, typically, those 4-year-old and up maidens are not the strongest. The reason for that is pretty obvious--if they haven't broken their maiden by the age of four, they've either had significant physical setbacks and/or have had lots of chances, but not broken through.
With Oaklawn being forced to cancel racing this week due to weather, there should be a bit of a logjam in the entry box for the next week or two, so it's good to get Caldera back in and see what he can do with the equipment change.
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I know my troubles are few comparatively but...
GB costs me 12K with loss to CHI in survivor Sunday.
Jenson Heung (I hope NVIDEA TANKS) opens his mouth and drops Quantum stocks 50% costing me 5K.
Then the one I hope you'll comment on TB R4 Owen Almighty. I've been waiting 4 months for him albeit big fav (Not the $$) the misfortune. I bet him big to win and 6/45 ex. He was 6 lengths the best. How did they possibly disqualify this horse?? This could be the worst DQ ever!! Please tell me I'm wrong.
Sorry, as I know others are worse off, just can't believe this week from gambling perspective.Comment -
One question i have is i remember growing up there was so much racing content to learn about racing books ect what i learned does not apply anymore except for maybe Maidens to ** The biggest drop in racing everyone knows and my fav angle 3rd race in a comeback that does not work and has dried up everything on Youtube is 10 years old nothing new i need a refresher on how to play the game im sure there more people but i have looked for at least a year and have found nothing so how can new people learn if i can't find anything.Comment -
I would have picked GB also....
As far as the race.... looking at the head on shot it ... the 6 horse's head was cockeyed down the back stretch and entering the turn and he did come in on the 4.. looked like he started his turn too early basically.. the 4 horse lost all momentum basically spit the bit costing him a better placing... Not the worse one Ive seen... but I think the combination of the horse not looking straight ahead and costing the horse a position was in the steward thought process. JMHO...Comment -
imo "in general"msw to mcl is too obvious and offers no value..you're better off with a horse who's run fairly well at todays level without having lost too many times..that goes for winning claiming races also with the drops
I'm more interested in how a horse ran off the layoff vs that he just did..looking for ones "in general" that finished out of the money but did something over part of the race like..
stayed within 3-4 lengths to the stretch call
ran evenly in a race that was 3-5 lengths faster than today's
ran evenly behind a slow pace
did the horse run well 2nd or 3rd off before
is a good to top jock jumping aboard first time for an avg or below avg trainer..horse looks avg at best .. why ?
why is a horse off a good effort early/middle of the year coming off a long layoff
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these are some of the angles I like aside from speed figures,trainer and jock ability ,race set up etc
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In my experience, especially with well bred, higher end horses, a quality 3 year old maiden will beat a well meant but maybe not as good as it could have been 4 year old maiden the majority of the time. In the maiden claimers , like 10k or around there, the older maiden typically has quite an edge over the three year olds . Neither horse has a ton of talent, they are who they are, but the physical difference of that year difference will have an edge more often than not.speaking of...[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Entry Update[/COLOR]Caldera has been entered in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for next Friday the 17th at Oaklawn Park. He'll be the #9 of a field of 9 carded as the day's second race. Post time is 12:58 p.m. CT. Your colt will wear blinkers for this try.
Note that this race is open to 3-year-olds and up. It's admittedly a bit early in the year to be facing older horses with a sophomore, but Oaklawn tends to write races this way much earlier in the season than most tracks and, typically, those 4-year-old and up maidens are not the strongest. The reason for that is pretty obvious--if they haven't broken their maiden by the age of four, they've either had significant physical setbacks and/or have had lots of chances, but not broken through.
With Oaklawn being forced to cancel racing this week due to weather, there should be a bit of a logjam in the entry box for the next week or two, so it's good to get Caldera back in and see what he can do with the equipment change.
So for me, unless one of these 4 year old maidens are actually quite talented and have been held back by whatever and are ready to improve, the quality of the 3 year old will overcome anything a 4 or older maiden might have to offer.
That is a blanket statement but over my years is was quite accurate. This is something that I concluded on my own and in Maryland. It is something that came from my pari-mutuel days when I was young that was better explained in my mind once I started to understand the physical differences between 3 and olders as a horseman early in the year.
Blinkers on and the far outside is interesting. Hopefully your horse settles within himself with those blinkers. Every now and then, they might try and just run off with that outside post which you do not want but it is something I think the rider will be looking for early. If I know this stuff, certainly the coach knows, lolol, and I am sure the rider will as well.
GL Batt. Fun race to observe.Comment -
All just my opinion Madison but the only thing you could have done with that survivor debacle was to play the Bears money line for a hedge of whatever you felt appropriate. And hind sight is always 20-20. I applaud you for getting to the last week. I cannot ever get out of September and that is not an exaggeration.
The stock thing is part of the game as you know and it came at a difficult time. You endure a frustration and then it compounds. When it rains , it pours, right?
Not a lot of advice I can offer there except the old, measure twice, cut once thing. Not with the stocks, but with the survivor. Only thing I can say is, look forward next time and weigh both outcomes. If you feel you should hedge, do it. Or, don't. That has to be your decision alone. I say that because when it is over, you have to live with the results. The only way a hedge can work is in between your ears. You have to be fine with either result. If you are, well done either way. If you are not, rethink it because you need to be fine in your head. It's your own computer and you are the only one that can log into it.
A quick word on a hedge I used to tell my owners when we were going to claim a maiden, non winners of two or three horse that was in a position to win that day, thus losing that condition which would make the claim less valuable because you cannot count on winning that condition race yourself as you are no longer eligible. I would tell them to consider betting maybe 1,000 to win on a horse that we were paying 10k for. If it loses, we paid 11k and we try and recoup through winning purses. If it wins, we are maybe paying 7k or 8k for the horse but lost the condition. So weigh those two and see if it makes monetary sense or not. Make a decision that you are good with either way. That is the best advice I can offer in that spot. I mean, who thought the Bears could really win? Certainly not me. But anything CAN happen in sports, and we all know that.
Just saw your replay of the DQ. The rule is that a horse is allowed to own his/ her own space meaning that as they go in and out of turns, every horse switches lead legs from the right leg on the straightaway to the left leg which is about a 3-4 feet per horse shirt towards the rail when going in to the turn and the same thing from left to right when they come out of the turn. You do not own the space well in front of you, but you do own the space you are in and will be in , in the next stride. The rider on the inside horse if you watch the head on made sure he had room to switch over 3-4 feet to the left without hitting the rail well prior to the incident ( about 10 seconds), but his horse does drift in about 1 foot still prior to switching but just prior to the incident. The problem occurred when your horse moved inward that same foot, before switching, then did switch and with a head/neck lead, and impeded the inside horse. Your horse when bumped had still not switched to his left leg but that bump took away the room needed to properly shift over for that inside horse. It happened so fast that I do not think your rider meant to do that at all and I would be surprised if he got days for that. However, it did happen and your horse caused that. Not your rider, IMO, but your horse. The inside rider had no choice but to pull out of there as his horse no longer had room to switch leads without hitting the rail. Your rider knew he had a ton of horse and that inside horse was already in a can't win position when this occurred. Your horse was tons the best, as the race later showed. Unfortunately, it was about the only thing that could have gotten your horse beat. You were a winner in my eyes, half way down the backside. Simply much better.
So, a terrible football beat, followed by a stock screw up, not of your making, followed by a really terrible horse beat. That is brutal Madison! We have all been there before. So where do you go from here? Well, you lick your wounds and soon, you will be in the right frame of mind to see that the Green Bay play was by far the one that made the most sense of the three you posted that I saw prior to the games being played, a clown move screwed your stock investment and all you can do is shake your head and a DQ on a horse you waited for to run who was tons the best and the right play by a mile.
It sucks for sure but I know you know that the most important step to take and decision to be made at this point is your next one. Which takes us back to measuring twice doesn't it. And sometimes all the measuring in the world cannot protect you from your saw breaking half way through the cut. The correct cut. But just not this time. And... we are still here to make more decisions and we have our health. Small consolation this minute but quite a consolation if you think about it. Of course, that's easy for me to say.
Good , sound decisions are not always right but they are always good and sound. Take pride in knowing that you did your best and your decisions you made you would make again in the same circumstance.
Hang in Madison, if you weren't as sharp as you are, you would not have been in those positions right?
Hope that makes sense.Comment -
As always your time and insight is always MUCH appreciated. Sometimes I feel we have walked, if not similar, parallel paths.
I did hedge the CHI/GB game. Long story for another time but I didn't last 60 years gambling by not following "No one ever lost by taking a profit". I've made a ton of money off the Quantum stocks, so it was money lost that had been made many times over.
I feel awful for complaining given these times and other's miseries. Maybe the change of the moon, this weekend? will help. LOL.
My granddaughters Bday party at our home, was awesome, but I remain 0/for my life gambling on family event days. I have a home and a healthy wonderful family so my problems are small at best.
All my best, to all, be safe and be healthy!!Comment -
One thing I never understand about horse racing is if you clearly have the best animal why not race Him/Her in the 3 or 4 lane and avoid the inside. Not like the horse can't go 8F or longer. I was cautious about the cutback. I guess the Jockey didn't have enough experience. LOL.Comment -
The 3rd race in a comeback will still work where the purses are smaller. Charlestown, whatever Waterford is called these days and at lesser venues. A lot of that is a combination of two things. The money it takes to train a horse all the way up to a top effort these days and the quality of horsemanship that it takes to understand it. At a place like Charlestown there are still some mom and pop trainers there as well as small, low budget trainers that will rely on that style of training. Meaning, 3rd race off a long layoff. But in todays world of running every 30 days instead of every 7-10 days, it is just not there anymore, especially at higher end tracks.
Reading books that were new 30+ years ago are now everyday things that players employ. No doubt you are older as am I. Probably the best thing I can recommend is to go back to the beginning of this thread, now 14 years old, and read some of the questions asked and see if they are in line with anything that might be of interest to you. I answered them all and hopefully some will be of some interest.
You can also use the "key word" function that is offered in the thread at the top and type in a key word or two about a certain area you want to talk about and see what comes up. Hopefully that will help. And if all else fails ask me and I will do my best, as will some of the handicappers, owners, players, etc. that read AND participate in this thread.
I know I am prejudice about this topic but I have not ever seen a book for sale that has offered as much info into the game, betting and understanding what to look for and all around knowledge as I have in this thread. And not just what I write, but the overall depth that conversations take in certain areas of horses, handicapping, etc. If some one knows of a better source , please feel free to share as I honestly have not seen it if it exists. There are other horse forums out there but I am not impressed with them as some of the people there, mostly handicappers, are. I've learned very little from reading those. Just my opinion.
All the best sir. Happy New Year to you.Comment -
quiet day for army mule so will mention a liam's map going at gulfstream
R9 #2 flying liam (6-1)
@ 4:20
tough spot ... the one @ aqu yesterday missed by a nose at 30-1+..is going a mile to 7f and lead through the stretch call before losing by <2 lengths last race (nice prep) ..prior to that ran 2nd to white abarrio..need to lead type and the 2-1 ml slight 2nd choice (speed horse) is breaking just outside of him which of course isn't good..will watch with interest and you never know with his offspring
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Another aspect of horse racing.....
Tomorrow my cousin has a yearling filly by Cyberknife selling .https://www.keeneland.com/
I always found it fascinating at reading bloodlines and looking at the conformation of the horses. Nowdays everything is put on line so you can see the video's ,pictures of the horses, pedigrees , "dynamic pedigrees" lol and watch it online vs years ago...
There are 3 other filly's selling ahead of her as well as a couple of colts. While this is not the "premier" sale for yearlings It's still a sale nothingless.
It will be interesting to see what the horses sell for before her hip number. Looking at the other filly's before her I think she looks the best and it doesn't hurt that the broodmares is by "Uncle Mo" ( just passed away) who is starting to make some noise as a broodmares sire.
By being the last one it also gives her an idea of where the market is at.
Hips 42, 107,442, 454,Comment -
These AM’s just keep on going. Never worse than 5th in 10 starts and hasn’t missed the board in last 6 .
Just a great attribute to have. And the trainer, Linda Rice, plays the claim game in NY as well or better than anyone.
Good stuff all around.Comment -
I remember "lite the fuse"! . I meant to say hip 445.. not 442. yes some old school pedigree back aways!Comment -
Heading over to a memorial service for Rodney Jenkins today. Heck of a guy and really fine horseman.
A meeting afterward that about new Pimlico. From what I am seeing so far, I think it could be something really good and I think the fans are going to really like it. Long way to go but so far, I really like what I hear.
I sure hope so.Comment -
sorry to hear about the passing of one of your friends..I definitely remember his name over the years from the racing form
cool that pimlico is making renovations or maybe it goes a little beyond that.believe the plans for belmont will be to run the stakes there next year with the first meeting being following saratoga (fall meet)..supposed to be a world class level racetrack including the addition of an artificial surface,ability to get to the infield through a tunnel and lots of amenities for patronsComment -
Thanks guys. I appreciate it.
Yesterdays meeting afterwards was what I consider a clarifying moment for me. This representation that Maryland has put together has seemingly many checks and balances where people with differing viewpoints will need to agree. The common denominator is that everyone wants to see this succeed in Maryland, for Maryland, and for the people that live here as well as the fans that wager on their product.
This stuff is in it's infancy as it will take a couple of years to get the new Pimlico going. But it seems like it has a very positive look to it with the framework in place. I sure do hope so.
Racing needs fresh minds, fresh energy and a clear vision to improve a game that has had so many things currently against it. What is unique about Md. racing moving forward is there is no ownership interest that demands an immediate return on it's investment. It is state run, not personnel ownership run.
If horsemen, riders, and management all have the same goal which is to improve Maryland racing and the product it puts out for the customers, and to respect their customers and do everything they can to make those customers feel as important as they actually are to this industry, I find it hard to believe we can be stopped anywhere short of being very successful in this venture. Time will tell, but as Maverick said in Top Gun, "it's lookin good so far".Comment
