Horse Racing questions and answers

[BOA12]

SA R8 300K STK. 3/9

8 entries, 4 of which haven't run in 4 months or more. 3 of the 4 are favorites. Only in horse racing!!

Interesting breeding on the #9 American Pharaoh by Tapit. 30-1

BOL today gentlemen.

Hit 'eM hard today M if playing.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: did you sign up to RTN? If so check out a Laurel race when able. take a look at that race percentage predictor. THX.

[Madison]

Hit 'eM hard today M if playing.

I'm empty right now for today. Got anything solid?

The horse/gambling gods are not happy with me. I struck lightning with sb squares, then a week or 2 later I had 4 come out of my stall. If I just would have boxed the 4 , a $570 ex, and $1200 tri. West Omaha last race. The gods have been reigning down on me since blowing that. LOL.

[BOA12]

I'm empty right now for today. Got anything solid?

The horse/gambling gods are not happy with me. I struck lightning with sb squares, then a week or 2 later I had 4 come out of my stall. If I just would have boxed the 4 , a $570 ex, and $1200 tri. West Omaha last race. The gods have been reigning down on me since blowing that. LOL.

Gambling Gods can be odd. 1:39 CST GP R6 #9 Millilat(IRE) 3-1 is solid.

4:06 CST GP R11 #12 I See YOU Lookin 7/2. Look no further M.

My advice, when snakebit, see B O A. LOL

Millllat leaves me snakebit.

[Madison]

Gambling Gods can be odd. 1:39 CST GP R6 #9 Millilat(IRE) 3-1 is solid.

4:06 CST GP R11 #12 I See YOU Lookin 7/2. Look no further M.

My advice, when snakebit, see B O A. LOL

Millllat leaves me snakebit.

GP R6 #9. Thankfully, I just couldn't buy the price, but thanks for offering. TVG was all over the 9 as well.

[BOA12]

GP R6 #9. Thankfully, I just couldn't buy the price, but thanks for offering. TVG was all over the 9 as well.

Should have given you the capts OP R3 #9 Winner $15.80-$7.60 running at the same time. Puts me up on the day.thank the gambling Gods.

[str]

just thought "if" he could manage that first turn and settle on the backstretch it would be a less stressful early part of the race than his first two starts..maybe having experienced things in more difficult circumstances it might perk him up if he feels hes got more in the tank later in the race
..understand there's no guarantee that he will adapt to the new challenge but from what you are saying about clement i like the chances that he will..especially that tony dutrow is more reserved with praise and spoke highly of clement and that it's likely they've been exposing him to it in his regular training routine


appreciate the feedback str and look forward to his next outing wherever that may be ..don't think it necessarily has to be the wood memorial but my guess is it's the most likely spot..if it isnt my other guess would be the bluegrass at keeneland

Totally agree JBEX. You won't know until you see him do it or not, but he has an excellent chance to do exactly what you are hoping for IMO.

[str]

SA R8 300K STK. 3/9

8 entries, 4 of which haven't run in 4 months or more. 3 of the 4 are favorites. Only in horse racing!!

Interesting breeding on the #9 American Pharaoh by Tapit. 30-1

BOL today gentlemen.

Yeah. It's a different game today compared to the one I played today.

[str]

TB R11 #3 Give Me Liberty. 400K Stk today.

On 11/13 trainer/barn Brisset puts him in 62K purse, 100K claimer at CD 6.5F. Runs 8th
(Looking like a genius) trainer/barn Diordoro claims him.

2 115K MSW's 8F at OP in which he ran relatively impressive 2nd's to 2 8/5 favorites, he finds himself still a maiden but racing in a 400K stakes in his 4th start.

I would assume the Brisset connections can't be to happy??

The claiming game is never easy. One minute you are a hero, the next, a chump.

I have looked so very smart and so very dumb at times.

You can't believe either one of those. Just keep on trying.

[str]

Hey STR: did you sign up to RTN? If so check out a Laurel race when able. take a look at that race percentage predictor. THX.

Not yet EZ. I did look into it some but got busy during the week.

And have to decide if I want computer or TV.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Ok Str good deal keep me updated thx

[str]

So much for Bob just wanting to give Nysos more time before his next start.

You don't make that decision after you enter and are the 1-5 choice.

At least not in the game I lived in.



Nysos to miss month of training

[Madison]

So much for Bob just wanting to give Nysos more time before his next start.

You don't make that decision after you enter and are the 1-5 choice.

At least not in the game I lived in.



Nysos to miss month of training

Was kind of my point earlier. I know for these people money is like toilet paper but passing on a gimme 300K purse raised my antenna.

[str]

Was kind of my point earlier. I know for these people money is like toilet paper but passing on a gimme 300K purse raised my antenna.

I thought that it might have been where you were going Madison.
What I find curious is the 30 days out of training.
I’m trying to think what needs no training for 30 days and not much matches.
A foot could but not an exact time frame. Other things or minor procedures can take less time but 30 days is actually an odd amount of time. So we will see.
And I am thinking “ out of training “.
Maybe it’s jogging for 30 days. Who knows. I think we will hear more about this in the coming weeks.
Kind of doesn’t make sense at face value.

[batt33]

It will be interesting to find out what the "Minor" setback is.

[Madison]

I thought that it might have been where you were going Madison.
What I find curious is the 30 days out of training.
I’m trying to think what needs no training for 30 days and not much matches.
A foot could but not an exact time frame. Other things or minor procedures can take less time but 30 days is actually an odd amount of time. So we will see.
And I am thinking “ out of training “.
Maybe it’s jogging for 30 days. Who knows. I think we will hear more about this in the coming weeks.
Kind of doesn’t make sense at face value.

Always appreciated!!

[str]

It will be interesting to find out what the "Minor" setback is.

On the surface and going by previous performance, this seems to be a way to get everyone off his back until he knows more.
While I understand that, this story just doesn’t have any flow to it.
The horse could be lame and they cannot find anything yet. That does happen. When it does, you just need to wait a week or two and the problem will surface. X rays won’t show something for a week or two and then show it. If it’s that, they certainly know where the problem is but they are not sure exactly what it is, thus, the delay game.
All speculation on my part. Hope the horse is okay. We’ll see how it goes.

[Madison]

Hit 'eM hard today M if playing.

Chk out SA R6. Look at the last start days. 6 horses. 1-342, 2-509, 3-158, and the 5-251.

How does the 6 fail here?

[batt33]

On the surface and going by previous performance, this seems to be a way to get everyone off his back until he knows more.
While I understand that, this story just doesn’t have any flow to it.
The horse could be lame and they cannot find anything yet. That does happen. When it does, you just need to wait a week or two and the problem will surface. X rays won’t show something for a week or two and then show it. If it’s that, they certainly know where the problem is but they are not sure exactly what it is, thus, the delay game.
All speculation on my part. Hope the horse is okay. We’ll see how it goes.

What is cool now is horses now have the ability to get "pet" scans which can detect things even before they become a problem... one good thing about modern technology!
Like you said hope the horse is okay and well see what happens.

[str]

Chk out SA R6. Look at the last start days. 6 horses. 1-342, 2-509, 3-158, and the 5-251.

How does the 6 fail here?

Can’t find the pps but saw the entries.
The days off can certainly matter but not as much with nice allowance type horses. And that track will not be as physically demanding as an east coast or cold weather surface would be. They skip over that track pretty easily .
Especially coming from barns that have a history of getting horses ready off time.
Can’t believe Ricky would want to ride Rosario on a horse that will need a race.
No disrespect to Yakteen but you have at least 2 trainers in there that win about 25% of the time. I know it’s a generic stat but don’t think I would be looking to have to beat two of those guys at 25% ( assuming as I can’t see it) and if I’m right and the others don’t beat me, I cash on the presumptive favorite.
Wish I could see the race on paper but with what little I have, not sure I would play into that scenario.
GL if you play sir.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Can’t find the pps but saw the entries.
The days off can certainly matter but not as much with nice allowance type horses. And that track will not be as physically demanding as an east coast or cold weather surface would be. They skip over that track pretty easily .
Especially coming from barns that have a history of getting horses ready off time.
Can’t believe Ricky would want to ride Rosario on a horse that will need a race.
No disrespect to Yakteen but you have at least 2 trainers in there that win about 25% of the time. I know it’s a generic stat but don’t think I would be looking to have to beat two of those guys at 25% ( assuming as I can’t see it) and if I’m right and the others don’t beat me, I cash on the presumptive favorite.
Wish I could see the race on paper but with what little I have, not sure I would play into that scenario.
GL if you play sir.

sent you a PM

[batt33]

Chk out SA R6. Look at the last start days. 6 horses. 1-342, 2-509, 3-158, and the 5-251.

How does the 6 fail here?

okay devils advocate..... #5 Check out the work tab..
#1 lots of interest in the first 3 races.betting wise. goes to the SA Derby in 4th race and gets crushed. March 1st work is nice
#3 lots of interest betting wise although at lower level tracks. Gets Rosairo and a couple of nice works since last race.
just a couple of thoughts

[str]

Just saw the pp’s. Thanks EZ !!

I would fish for one of the others or pass the race.
WHY !

The outside horse drifted at the 1/4 pole 2 races back which I don’t like. Then couldn’t win last time.
I did not have time to look for more than a glance. Not sure if the race has run yet and I am not able to give it fair time.
That said, Tim is having a tough meet with the win % right now. He is a fine horseman but when things are not clicking, and right now it isn’t , it’s usually because of all the little things that happen. You break bad, the inside horse breaks outward, the horse has a freak thing happen, jock makes an unforced error, and about a thousand more things.
The game is tough enough without having to fight luck or a lack of it.
I hope he wins but the risk reward of a big favorite doesn’t match up right now against 2 trainers that hit at about 25% for me.

Hope that makes sense.

GL if you play.

[str]

Just saw the pp’s. Thanks EZ !!

I would fish for one of the others or pass the race.
WHY !

The outside horse drifted at the 1/4 pole 2 races back which I don’t like. Then couldn’t win last time.
I did not have time to look for more than a glance. Not sure if the race has run yet and I am not able to give it fair time.
That said, Tim is having a tough meet with the win % right now. He is a fine horseman but when things are not clicking, and right now it isn’t , it’s usually because of all the little things that happen. You break bad, the inside horse breaks outward, the horse has a freak thing happen, jock makes an unforced error, and about a thousand more things.
The game is tough enough without having to fight luck or a lack of it.
I hope he wins but the risk reward of a big favorite doesn’t match up right now against 2 trainers that hit at about 25% for me.

Hope that makes sense.

GL if you play.

Realized I had more time and had a minute to look some more.

The 2 horse looks as though it actually could have a chance. 1st time gelding, and lasix. Was burning up the workouts in the AM and hurt himself a year ago. Got 7-8 months off and went back to training. Has Worked great coming up to being ready to run. I see Cave Rock and Havenameltdown as 2 that he was beaten by. Not too shabby. If you throw out the turf race , what's wrong with that in here at 20-1?

Ricky wouldn't ride Rosario if the horse was not training well. It's a respect thing trainers honor with elite riders.

The 4 horse lost to the 6 by 5 lengths 1st out and is better now with a couple more under him.

The 5 was doing great, had to be stopped and is working well to return. 29% tough to fight IMO.

The 6 is fine but at real short odds and against more than meets the eye at 1st glance with the other ones.

Not sure who I would use for sure, but I would not be on the 6 in this spot at those assumed odds.

GL Madison.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR I want to buy stock in your performance reading the form once you go Live on the tourney sites. LOL.

[str]

Hey STR I want to buy stock in your performance reading the form once you go Live on the tourney sites. LOL.

Well thanks EZ. I appreciate that but.. I did talk him off a winner if he followed my advise.

But remember what I said about slumps and secondites at a meet. Luck is hard to find. For Tim, he does win, but his horse falls hard just past the finish line and is vanned off. Unreal.
Man when things go cold at a meet, it almost becomes a survive to the next meet thing. If it's any consolation, do watch that trainer at the next meet. After a meet like this one for Tim, he will probably perk up and go on a run at the next one. Just how it works for a hot and cold trainer. I was that more often than I care to talk about. Boy is it frustrating when things go against you. Fun when they don't though. Youv'e suddenly remembered how to win again. It's crazy.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR good points. Success and failure can run in cycles for sure. THX.

[Madison]

Well thanks EZ. I appreciate that but.. I did talk him off a winner if he followed my advise.

But remember what I said about slumps and secondites at a meet. Luck is hard to find. For Tim, he does win, but his horse falls hard just past the finish line and is vanned off. Unreal.
Man when things go cold at a meet, it almost becomes a survive to the next meet thing. If it's any consolation, do watch that trainer at the next meet. After a meet like this one for Tim, he will probably perk up and go on a run at the next one. Just how it works for a hot and cold trainer. I was that more often than I care to talk about. Boy is it frustrating when things go against you. Fun when they don't though. Youv'e suddenly remembered how to win again. It's crazy.

No, I made a tiny Win bet. Odds awful. While I always appreciate the advice and guidance, I didn't survive 50 years by not following myself. I learned a long long time ago, it's way easier to sleep when one loses betting their own selections, and very tough losing on someone else's.

Check out GP R9 Scylla. Off 288 days, but was my pick for female of the year. Only 2 starts, but I'm not sure they could be more impressive. Can she qualify for the Oaks, and if so, futures?

Thanks for everything.

[Madison]

OK STR good points. Success and failure can run in cycles for sure. THX.

A gambling (and maybe life statement) that was never more true.

[JBEX]

hey str

I will be keeping an eye out for kingsbarns next start..he breezed 4f @ pbd 5 days ago and that was his first work since his last race ..interested if he tries the g3 @ 1 1/16 on the florida derby undercard next saturday..however back in 4 weeks off a very long layoff vs much tougher company and at a longer distance no easy task..maybe needs more time in between but seems like a listed or g3 stakes about where he belongs now

[JBEX]

hey str

I will be keeping an eye out for kingsbarns next start..he breezed 4f @ pbd 5 days ago and that was his first work since his last race ..interested if he tries the g3 @ 1 1/16 on the florida derby undercard next saturday..however back in 4 weeks off a very long layoff vs much tougher company and at a longer distance no easy task..maybe needs more time in between but seems like a listed or g3 stakes about where he belongs now

would think the type of race he ran was very taxing vs sitting off a couple of dueling front runners and coming home well within himself

[str]

hey str

I will be keeping an eye out for kingsbarns next start..he breezed 4f @ pbd 5 days ago and that was his first work since his last race ..interested if he tries the g3 @ 1 1/16 on the florida derby undercard next saturday..however back in 4 weeks off a very long layoff vs much tougher company and at a longer distance no easy task..maybe needs more time in between but seems like a listed or g3 stakes about where he belongs now

would think the type of race he ran was very taxing vs sitting off a couple of dueling front runners and coming home well within himself

Appreciate the workout info. A 1/2 in 50 is most likely more like a 3/4's or 7/8ths or even mile workout. The first half, quarter or whatever is most likely 15's which they will not time. I will also assume that the times 50 was a 26-24 split. All that would be an indicator that he is doing really well and he is being worked with the relax and go as we have talked about a bunch. Let's see if he works today or tomorrow or Saturday. Typically, time wise, 7 or 8 days, it would be today or tomorrow depending on weather and or track condition. So let's see what happens there.
As for the next start, they do run a mile out of the chute at Churchill right? Think I remember the Pat Day Mile out of the chute. Anyway, maybe there is an option there if not a grade 3 two turn race? An ungraded race would be great but I seem to want to baby this horse. Lol.
Old school habits die hard JBEX.


And yes, the race was somewhat taxing but he was not all out so not as bad as it could have been but not as good as it could have been either IMO.

[JBEX]

Appreciate the workout info. A 1/2 in 50 is most likely more like a 3/4's or 7/8ths or even mile workout. The first half, quarter or whatever is most likely 15's which they will not time. I will also assume that the times 50 was a 26-24 split. All that would be an indicator that he is doing really well and he is being worked with the relax and go as we have talked about a bunch. Let's see if he works today or tomorrow or Saturday. Typically, time wise, 7 or 8 days, it would be today or tomorrow depending on weather and or track condition. So let's see what happens there.
As for the next start, they do run a mile out of the chute at Churchill right? Think I remember the Pat Day Mile out of the chute. Anyway, maybe there is an option there if not a grade 3 two turn race? An ungraded race would be great but I seem to want to baby this horse. Lol.
Old school habits die hard JBEX.


And yes, the race was somewhat taxing but he was not all out so not as bad as it could have been but not as good as it could have been either IMO.

know you've mentioned the "15's" before and it's good to know from a capping perpective that the horse might've put in that extra work besides the 4f one(s) showing ..i'll keep an eye out for the next

the pat day mile is for 3yo's so that's out of the question ..the best fit at kee would be a g3 on 4/20 but it's at 1 3/16 miles..probably not ideal off a 7f race but he did get that last year in the louisiana derby although that was wire to wire with a crawling pace

coming off as long a layoff as he has,ideally,do you want to bring the horse back within about 2 months so he carries forward some of the conditioning from that race ?

I've actually come to think that waiting a little longer and trying that longer race at kee might not be a bad route lol to go

[JBEX]

I understand how the horse is doing plays a huge part in this and of course I don't know this..my feel is if things were going somewhat smoothly that coming back in 4 weeks (next weeks race) might be a little soon with his overall circumstances..6 -8 weeks seems more reasonable

[str]

know you've mentioned the "15's" before and it's good to know from a capping perpective that the horse might've put in that extra work besides the 4f one(s) showing ..i'll keep an eye out for the next

the pat day mile is for 3yo's so that's out of the question ..the best fit at kee would be a g3 on 4/20 but it's at 1 3/16 miles..probably not ideal off a 7f race but he did get that last year in the louisiana derby although that was wire to wire with a crawling pace

coming off as long a layoff as he has,ideally,do you want to bring the horse back within about 2 months so he carries forward some of the conditioning from that race ?

I've actually come to think that waiting a little longer and trying that longer race at kee might not be a bad route lol to go

Q. know you've mentioned the "15's" before and it's good to know from a capping perpective that the horse might've put in that extra work besides the 4f one(s) showing ..i'll keep an eye out for the next

A. It is fair to assume what I am describing. A half in 50 would be useless for this horse as far as training is concerned. Todd is most likely simulating a race type effort with slow, build up, finish thru the lane stuff. That's fairly typical, especially in these circumstances.

the pat day mile is for 3yo's so that's out of the question

Yes, I knew that but was making sure I was correct about a mile out of a chute there.

Q. coming off as long a layoff as he has,ideally,do you want to bring the horse back within about 2 months so he carries forward some of the conditioning from that race ?

A. I would certainly think so or less if possible. 6-7 weeks probably being ideal in todays game.

I've actually come to think that waiting a little longer and trying that longer race at kee might not be a bad route lol to go

Guess it just depends what is out there to choose from.
Todd knows this horse. He will make sure he is real comfortable where he puts him. He has no calendar pointing now I assume so he can do anything he wants.