happy holidays to you also str..have enjoyed and learned a lot going back n forth with you over the years and sure that will continue in the future..hopefully we'll see kingsbarns at gulfstream soon and will be rooting for WA to have a big and potentially record breaking year..really something to be excited about for rick
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Thank you all for the extremely kind words.
The mission was helping give back to the horseplayers. Glad it has helped any and all that it might have.
It helped me as well and I truly appreciate that.Comment -
Thank you for all your time and knowledge sharing!! Have a safe and happy holidays!! Santa Anita tradition, Opening Day!!Comment -
Thank you I appreciate learning what I missed. I'm using TVG for my data.
10/22 KEE 6.5f MSW , Cox/Geroux
12/23 FG 8.5F (So I get the added 2F but ??) ML 5-1 and never over 2-1, Cox/Geroux
I guess anything is possible but did they pound this guy that much Just based on works between starts? I didn't see anything in the 1st start to make me think the distance would help, but the replay was tough late.Comment -
I think you can't go off 1 race madison especially with the specs of this horse mentioned above..uncle mo is a top class sire and bred by a big ky outfit ..started at kee fall and bet well which is no surprise..horse like this with any kind of experience can go hugely forward next out without showing much in it's debutComment -
Yeah I get it, but it was the magnitude of the improvement. I don't believe the 2 horses he beat handily are chump change. Be interested to see next out.
Thanks again!!Comment -
Ok. Here goes.
I am assuming a couple of things and before I start and I will say that sometimes a maiden race might seem to be the simplest solution to try and handicap. Not many races for the entrants, young honest horses, those types of things but that is actually false. Maidens can be the most difficult races of all to play. Why? Here's how.
A horses first start can reveal any number of things including a future closer that goes wire to wire. Or, a speed horse that is forced to close due to a bad break. Actually, too many to try and list but an open type race, maybe a claimer with no conditions is probably better suited to try and get the hang of things. ( I assume the dogs had certain races that were more difficult than others?) . I have no idea though.
Anyway, you tried a maiden race and they can be the most unpredictable races of them all. In this case, your selection ran very well. Take that as a good thing for you. Well played. But what you were unable to find was the winner beating yours.
In no order... forget about the big money plunge. I promise you, the connections thought they could win, most likely expected a much improved race 2nd time out but no way they KNEW they would win. I won over a thousand races in my time and NEVER knew I was going to win. A real good chance, sure, but nobody ever knows and don't let anyone tell you differently. If they insist, say fine, but just know who your talking to from that point on.
The winning horse is by Uncle Mo. That jumped off the chart for me when I saw it. Uncle Mo is one of the most prolific win first time out sires currently standing. So this horse was well meant first time out. Things went wrong and he got beat. But that made him more deadly to play against in his 2nd start. Not everyone knows that. And probably very few recreational handicappers. Even less still, if a handicapper is trying to convert from the dogs without a ton of experience. So don't be hard on yourself but do realize that if you see an Uncle Mo firster next time, either play on, don't bet the race, or play very small against. Buyer beware going against that guy first time out.
Q. They knew this guy was winning but he had no business competing with the more seasoned 7.
A. Players knew there was an excellent chance this horse would run much much better 2nd time out. And, the 7 might have had more seasoning but for a maiden, in a maiden race, that means that horse has not yet won so with maidens the word "seasoned" isn't all it's cracked up to be. There is good and bad within that.
Q. I was all over the 7 El Magnifico (Ton of experience and class).
A. We spoke to the experience so let's talk about class. How much actual class could this horse have if he hasn't won yet? I do get what you are saying, he belonged in the race and probably had a few solid efforts but the 2 horse was bred to beat these 1st time out . He too, had class.
And this is what makes maidens so darn tough sometimes. More experienced players will know that maidens can look so easy but be so darn hard sometimes. Plenty of handicappers refuse to bet maiden races at all. Too many intangibles. And I respect that. They are not easy as it takes a lot of experience to pick up on all the nuances that a maiden race might offer. And just when you think you know it all, something else you jump up and bite you in the butt.
So my help to you on this subject is... lay off betting on maidens for a while . DO watch those races and learn all you can. Watch for horses that can't run leveled out because the dirt spray kickback is scaring them. Watch for horses that won't switch leads properly. Watch and see all you can. And this last one might surprise you but mute the announcer. They can be so annoying sometimes. You would, or shall I say, WILL, be pleasantly surprised when you watch races with the announcer turned down, and you realize how much your visual senses will perk up. It won't take long before you start to notice new things you never saw before. And THAT, is how you improve your game Madison. Keep looking at the field front to back, front to back, taking 7-10 seconds each time. You will pickup who is jumping up and down , who is being checked, who has a lot of horse, who is just floundering in the back. Knowledge is power and it is too tough to learn with an announcer screaming in your ear. Mute it ! Please.
Do that and your horizons will expand in no time. Watch replays the same way. Find something you saw the first time, or find something new. Watch the riders switch sticks. Where and when.
It is my hope that you try this. Any race on TV, anywhere. Just mute it and learn. No wagering needed. And as always, have a question. Tell me the track, the race and the date and I'll do my best to watch it and report back.
Remember, not many horses can improve more drastically than a 2nd time starter if the first race went wrong for them.
Hope all that helps. Stay with it Madison. The game needs people like you in it.
All the best,
strComment -
Once again MANY thanks for your time and patience.
Greyhound racing is apples to banana's. No jockey, no rating, horrific crashes. Short distance races is mostly position. Lot of hounds run/break predominantly rail/wide/straight? So, the game to be successful, is to find and bet against the favorite who is poorly positioned at the break. Anyway we might have a contest as I could talk Greyhound racing endlessly, almost as much as your love for the ponies.
For what it's worth I'll give you a brief summary of my position regarding El Magnifico "back class". Any one wants to add a brief critique please do but aside from that it's time to move on.
6/18 SA MSW 5F 2nd to Muth. Desormeaux.
8/25 DEL MSW 6.5F 2nd
10/7 SA STK 300K Muth, Wine me up. Desormeaux. Was challenging 6F or so and was clearly pulled up.
Here's where I may have gotten over enthused.
11/25 CD MSW 7F 2nd Legalize, with Linebacker 3rd. Trainer change to Asmussen.
12/23 The race in question.
Thanks again for everything!! I'll be offline for a bit.Comment -
The stake race was a wasted effort but not the horses fault. The other races, he is running 2nd. Maybe there is a hanging issue there?Once again MANY thanks for your time and patience.
Greyhound racing is apples to banana's. No jockey, no rating, horrific crashes. Short distance races is mostly position. Lot of hounds run/break predominantly rail/wide/straight? So, the game to be successful, is to find and bet against the favorite who is poorly positioned at the break. Anyway we might have a contest as I could talk Greyhound racing endlessly, almost as much as your love for the ponies.
For what it's worth I'll give you a brief summary of my position regarding El Magnifico "back class". Any one wants to add a brief critique please do but aside from that it's time to move on.
6/18 SA MSW 5F 2nd to Muth. Desormeaux.
8/25 DEL MSW 6.5F 2nd
10/7 SA STK 300K Muth, Wine me up. Desormeaux. Was challenging 6F or so and was clearly pulled up.
Here's where I may have gotten over enthused.
11/25 CD MSW 7F 2nd Legalize, with Linebacker 3rd. Trainer change to Asmussen.
12/23 The race in question.
Thanks again for everything!! I'll be offline for a bit.
Some horses will do that and they can be tons the best but almost refuse to go by the last horse or... make the lead and let up even if the jockey isn't.
Might be a horse you look to key 2nd and fill the win slot with prices? Would have to see the form but something to think about.
GL Madison.Comment -
Happy New Year to you my friend and to all our group.
All jest aside, Greyhound racing is the epitome of fighters or place and show candidates. Hounds CROWD their prey and they ultimately pace/hunt. The times I've seen this in the ponies they also seem to like to run close or pressure the winner/pace setter. I don't see that in this one.Comment -
Possibly the Secretariat of greyhound racing was a guy named "Irish Cadillac". Absolute Monster but they couldn't keep him qualified because he was just mean. They eventually took him on tour to any track/hound that was up to it for match races. I believe 10/20K at the time. He beat (decimated) some of the best NE had to offer regardless of the distance. Tell Jimmy 20-20 at 7/16, and Jui 34/34 in the quinella.
Apologies for getting off subject but reflection at year end I guess.Comment -
I hope your right. A horse that hangs as a rule does not when they make the lead from the gate but most hangers lack enough early speed, prefer to stalk or close and then just pretty much don't want to pass the last horse.
They are great for a horse player in that you use them 2nd only in exotics but they are frustrating as can be for a trainer. Most BTW, are also as a group more sound than others which points to full extension especially late when it's gut check time.Comment -
Happy new year gang!!!!!!!Comment -
Happy new year to you and all,
Just a quick question on movement. Lot of horses headed South to TB/GP. Transport/Surface Changes/Climate? I have several stable plays from CD etc heading to GP. Just a brief response appreciated.
BOL to all.Comment -
Happy new year, all!Comment -
Transport is no problem.
Surface change. Typically not bad but now and then it shows up. Hard to say prior to unless past results can point you in the right direction.
Climate. They will adjust within a week or two. Shouldn’t be a problem
If the horse was a non sweater, the trainer wouldn’t go there with it.Comment -
It's that time of year folks. Weather is upon us on the east coast. It is important to keep an eye on track surfaces when snow , ice , rain is approaching. Like today. The track superintendents have all had to make a determination as to best ward off a surface problem and that could mean a very helpful rail, nothing, or a deep inside that helps closers a lot.
You just have to see what the races are trying to show you early in the cards. Rarely are running patterns a coincidence with weather nearby.
Food for thought.
GL if you play everyone.Comment -
Yeah, I was having a good day about a week ago and gave out FG Platinum Minit 8-1 to MRGT. I think he was in the 10th and he had handled the 2 and 9 who were the speed previously. Not watching the first 9 races I didn't realize the speed advantage that day hence the 8-1. The 2&9 ran 1/2 at 2-1 with my horse coming late , but just to late.Comment -
hey str
kingsbarns
12/31 ... 37.44 (b) 3/10 @ PBD
1/6 .. 49.41 (b) 16/27 @ PBD
only 6 days apart probably a good sign..hopefully see him by early -mid febuaryComment -
no problem str and thanks for the good word..realize I'm a little biased lol but I think he's going to have a big year..fresh,maybe filled out some physically and think he has a versatile running style under normal conditions which the derby wasn't..the mth stakes following I thought he was a bit sucked in by the horse who aggressively ran between him and the leader early onComment -
It seemed to me that he was a jittery horse after the Derby. Being lightly raced prior to the Derby, I do think that race screwed him up between the ears. Even the Monmouth race , he just did not look the same. I really hope he can get back to the horse I saw prior to the Derby. If so, he will do just fine. I'm excited to watch it.
Already fun to start talking about it.
Thanks JBEX.Comment
