-
Comment -
some guy in the tote room, he told me the exact amount bet on the 8 horse and fav 7 and it didn't match, it prob happens every once in a while tvg doesn't get the right figures from the track u can look at tvg 3rd race today and the 8 horse is listed at 7-1 but only paid 11 dollars so u know it's wrong on the tvg websiteComment -
The tote room guy I'm sure was telling you what he saw but he was probably not aware of why this happens as often as it does across a lot of tracks.
The feed that TVG gets is always behind the actual numbers. Every time the odds update, it is from the previous minute to minute and a half.
And while that is understandable, it is the syndicates that bets huge sums of money on horses whose odds are determined to be in their favor. By betting on the computer, they can bet just before the bell rings closing betting.
I have not paid attention since I retired but that bell you here, not the gate bell, but the bell when you are at the track that you can clearly hear ring, did not always ring before or exactly when the gates opened. Sometimes it was a much as 2 or 3 seconds later. For a professional to have the luxury of those 1,2,or 3 seconds, or even just that split second when they break in which to decide to place a bet or not, is such a huge edge it is hard to quantify. I'm sure you have seen lets say a horse on the lead or top four where the odds are sometimes posted on TV below the names. And they hit the 1/2 mile pole and the odds drop like a rock. Often times, THAT is what it's all about
You punch in your bet, all you have left to do is hit enter and wait for the break. If you like what you see at the break, bet it. If not, don't touch it. That is the edge, and it is HUGE to a pros eye.
So these syndicates who get rebates as well as a very large edge, bang down the odds a lot. No, they do not always win. But they do win enough to make it extremely worth while. And while not always the source of the heavy late money that shows, you can bet that more often than not, it is.
These groups also hammer mandatory payouts when you see them across the U.S. At least they used to. Maybe with the game they have now, they don't need to. I don't know.
It has been out of control for a while now and I do think one or two places have cut them off but with medium tracks begging for more handle, they will be reluctant to ban that money.
Hope that helps explain what happens in situations like yours yesterday.
Feel free to follow up if you have any other questions
All the best Cinci.Last edited by str; 01-11-23, 09:07 AM.Comment -
thanks for posting enjoyed reading that, yah it always amazes me halfway in the race when the odds drop on a horse and i'm like wtf is going on here, there's so much about horse racing payouts that i'm curious about like how much rake are the tracks taking out i probably dont' even wanna knowComment -
This link will give you each takeout based on the state the track is in.
Some tracks offer incentive takeout's. For instance, Charlestown is 15% on it's two different pick 4's. If you are into that, that is a real nice perk. I think that is still in play. Double check if you are interested.
Each track is required to post these % takeout's either in a program you buy or online.
They are good to know so you can avoid the crazy high takeout's.
Comment -
hey str
oaklawn horse won impressively today.. the trip was very similar to army mule's in the carter hdcp @ aqu.. think this horse has stakes potential.. winning a $104k alw @ that track is kind of like a stakes anyway
aqu horse ran 3rd on a sloppy sealed track with a wide trip.. not a bad effort at all factoring the circumstances.. laurel horse did nothing
here's the oaklawn horse's race.. #2 klassy bridget (starts @ 17:30)
Comment -
My takeaway from that replay is that this horse has plenty of things going for her. It is tough for any horse to sit inside and bide their time like this filly did but as soon as that hole opened just a little, bam, she exploded into it. Immediate response on her part.
Talent, smart, push button. Don't know her ceiling but you can bet she will give it all when asked.
Very cool to see.
Thanks JBEX. !Last edited by str; 01-14-23, 09:19 AM.Comment -
hey str
laurel
R6 #1a spiritual ghost (10-1) 2:52
trainer is an absolutely dreadful investment lol
what i found interesting is the last win at the extended route distance (today's) on 11/24..it was preceded by a race ( a shorter route) 13 days before before that had similiar last 3 calls to today's ..realize i make more of the latter than you but i like it as an angle and usually catches my eye..also dropped at least a level that time and is doing the same today..back in 13 days that time and 10 today..was off a1 turn route last time and his last was a 2 turn so ,to be fair, consider that a negative ..horse according to the brisnet figures was on avg 2 lengths off a pace that was 3 lengths fast so it was honest up front
also his whole career is present in the pp's and was competing against significantly better on the turf for most of it
feel free to pick another..really nice betting raceLast edited by JBEX; 01-16-23, 11:31 AM.Comment -
I can see everything you mentioned and I am fine with all that. He looks like he should run a decent race. Some real weak horses in here. He should appreciate that.
I went down the lineup and three horses caught my eye other than of course, yours. Probably caught your eye as well.
The #5 horse drops down in class and that has to help.
The #6 horse. Damon is soooo underrated. He is very good. His horses run. But 7-2 is tough to take on anyone of these.
The #7 seems to be fairly consistent with it's efforts but is 1 for 19 in the win column. Ouch.
Hard for me to take a stand on any of these mainly because they all lose a lot. Lol.
GL if you play JBEX.Comment -
thanks str
I guess it's what a field at this level should be but I like taking shots in these types of races..see what you're saying about the 3 horses you mentioned..if I had to stab with one of the others (factoring price) it'd be #2 so there (20-1)
realize it was only vs 5k mcl 2 back but he did open up on the field at a half furlong shorter than today..took exactly 8 weeks off .. got some conditioning last out and returns in only 18 days this time..trainer has excellent roi's over large sample this year and in routes the last 3 years..still going with the original though..appreciate the feedback !Comment -
hey str
there are 2 army mule's running over the next 3 days
friday
oaklawn
R6 #2 wild mule (5-2)
alw oc $104k.. same level as "recruiter" who won there last week..looks good on paper (2nd choice)homebred by "new farm" seem to remember that might have been a place ben perkins got a lot of horses from?dam was a winner at charlestown in 3 lifetime starts and this was her first foal to race.. definitely a sign AM moves them up imo.. asmussen's horse (8-5 ml fav) is breaking from the outside (post 8)and that has been a disadvantage in sprints there
sunday
gulfstream
R6 a j's memory (no ml yet)
expensive and making her debut going two turns on the turf.. as you know, never easy especially at the winter meeting of this track..george weaver having a great meet and paco lopez rides.. former excellent value on the turf and first out on the turf... jock, as you know, an excellent turf riderLast edited by JBEX; 01-19-23, 08:56 AM.Comment -
Good memory. New Farm was Benny Perkins owner for a long time. I always assumed he had a piece in that. They were big into buying and breeding babies. They had a lot of success back when I was around. Probably still do.
That dam winner at Charlestown was exactly what I was talking about a few weeks ago. Benny was in Md. when Monmouth was closed and before Gulfstream. If a nice bred mare couldn't run, that's where they went to win. Purses were so low back then it was truly like running for maiden 7.5k. It served a real good purpose for that reason.
He taught me a few things about babies that I never forgot. He was so good with them.
He was in a small barn right next to mine at the 1/2 mile pole at Laurel. It was the old "International " barn from back when the Euro, Japan and whoever horses came to when they all shipped in overseas for the D.C. International way back in the day and were quarantined. Such a cool experience. I got to talk to trainers and asst. trainers and riders from those other countries in the morning for a week or two every year I was stabled there. Probably about ten years until they stopped running that race. Breeders Cup took that stuff over I guess.
You didn't get to talk to many Russians back in the late 70's or early 80's. Lol. Or all the other nations people either. A lot of them had interpreters with them. Totally cool thing that I only had the chance to do because I stood there by that tree at the 1/2 mile pole every morning watching mine train. It's still there and you can clearly see it when they run down the backside at Laurel just before the far turn. With my old barn right behind it. Sadly, that is also where my exercise boy was crushed by a baby that flipped on him right there. I had to have told that story in here about good old Wally. He was a groom when I first came on the track that eventually came to work years later for me. What a character he was. The gap to enter and exit the racetrack was right there. Some really fond memories as well as one really difficult memory. Ugh . Heart squeeze as I digress.
Yeah AM moving them up is an understatement. But I know Benny would not have thought about breeding that mare unless she had bloodlines and most likely showed real talent before she started to most likely fall apart.
The two outside horses look like they will burn early . As long as this one can stay close and sit, then go at the 1/4 pole, she should be fine. Looks like she can run. Just needs to do that steady improvement they all need to display as they win and go against tougher.
As for the 2nd horse, totally agree with the trainer/jockey comments. The 9 post could make things tougher. No easy spot but never say never with these AM's.
GL if you play JBEX. Thanks for the heads up!Last edited by str; 01-19-23, 05:09 PM.Comment -
no problem and thanks str
think I learned ben perkins was good with babies from a trainer pattern book I used to buy in the early 90's ..pocket sized ,had over 3000 of them and I'd say if I remember correctly at least a couple of dozen different patterns (possibly a lot more) based on profitability..pretty cool thing back then and they updated it every few years ..
think the guys who did it were based in MD ..Olmstead last name rings a bell but not sure
Allen Jerkens had quite a few but they went out of their way to emphasize multiple slow long (7f +) works leading up to a race and he meant business..
they did seem live when he did that..he may have been the only one they went into extra detail about a pattern or at least there were not many
you're right about the pedigree..2nd and 3rd dam were stakes winners so definitely talent in the female family..cool you actually knew him and your barn was close to his
I remember that race by name ..nice to get a chance to speak to some of the top foreign jocks and trainers (including assistants)
tough story about your exercise boy..just an example of how dangerous it can be working with half ton animals..jocks are not the only ones at risk and those mishaps happen outside of the public's eye for the most part
as you said could set up nice for the oaklawn horse and sure george weaver would be happy with some signs of good things to come from the other..look forward to both of those racesComment -
hey str
did a small write-up on a horse i liked in derby future pool 3 today
..wanted to get your opinion on his only race (1/1) on 1/14 that I hadn't looked at prior to picking him..sat patiently on the rail behind the pace setters and thought what he did at the top of the stretch was impressive, especially for a first time starter.. looks like he tried to get outside twice ,was shut off and then went inside between horses and had plenty left ..guess you have to have a quick turn of foot to do that..you think there's any indicator he'll be ok going further ? understand there's always speculation with that
#2 kingsbarns (32-1)
(16:25)
.Comment -
This horse did about all you can ask of a firster with the trip he had. You can try and teach relax, be inside, and even have dirt thrown in your face but never to the same extent that a race will provide. He passed all the tests. Did what nice horses do.hey str
did a small write-up on a horse i liked in derby future pool 3 today
..wanted to get your opinion on his only race (1/1) on 1/14 that I hadn't looked at prior to picking him..sat patiently on the rail behind the pace setters and thought what he did at the top of the stretch was impressive, especially for a first time starter.. looks like he tried to get outside twice ,was shut off and then went inside between horses and had plenty left ..guess you have to have a quick turn of foot to do that..you think there's any indicator he'll be ok going further ? understand there's always speculation with that
#2 kingsbarns (32-1)
(16:25)
.
If I had to point to a spot of concern it could be the final time. 26 4/5ths for the last 1/4 is seemingly slowish even for babies going a mile. At least I think so. Not way slow but a little. And I'm being picky to say that but it's all he have to go on. I see others in the pp's that only went a little faster so it is by no means a problem at this point. Just something we will want to watch improve with racing.
He will get every chance to make the race with Todd. 32-1 tells me he has a nice reputation after just one race. A big upside at least at this point. With so many people knowing a lot more than we do about the horse, I would say that 's a good thing.
As you know, one of the keys to this is to be peaking in early May. This one has a chance to do exactly that.
Over the years you have done pretty well playing around with these futures. This one will be fun to watch moving forward.
Thanks for the links. Let's follow this one and see what happens.
GL JBEX.Comment -
thanks str and glad you like him
went back to see if there were any other dirt miles run on that day or the surrounding days..not that day but the day after they had an
" 4 up colts aoc n1x ot or n2l or $20k tag "
here were the fractions of that one and kingsbarns
23⁰ 46⁰ 1:12¹ 1:25⁴ 139⁰ kingsbarns
23² 46¹ 1:12¹ 1:25¹ 1:39⁰
aoc n1x
interesting how similar the fractions were..same at the pace call and final time
and real similiar to the half (7f other a little faster)..understand it's a different day and might be a slight difference in the surface but something to go off..have to think with how good the msw are down there the older alw horses might be similar talent wise at this point ?
winner had very similar running line to kingsbarnsLast edited by JBEX; 01-23-23, 10:29 AM.Comment -
the #8 cyclone mischief's last race was also a mile at gulfstream (1:36²) and figure only 4 points higher (points about the same as lengths)..so 13 ticks difference time-wise but much less difference on the figure..seems like surface (according to them) was much slower when kingsbarns ran..at least his trainer not so great at stakes..horrible roi and win %
.Comment -
plus his last was an alw race and his 4th career start (cyclone mishief)Comment -
didn't think about it before but very similiar bloodlines to some horse named "flightline"
lol
flightline
tapit
out of an indian charlie mare
kingsbarns
uncle mo ( by indian charlie)
out of a tapit mare
.Comment -
In January, if a 3year old matches up with an older allowance horse, that is pretty darn good. With Kingsbarn, it was not so much the final 1/8th too me, it was the 13 3/5ths from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8th pole that seems a bit odd. And because he didn't set that 3/4 time, the leader did, I guess with olders finishing basically the same way, it's actually very good. I saw where it said he galloped out VERY well which Todd does a lot. (I loved that style of training.)
I saw the horse racing nation write up (thank you).
All in all, I think you have picked a very solid prospect. I know it's all about the next race and these horses can't afford to stub their toe at all this time of year but going in, there is indeed plenty to be optimistic about.
Win or lose, very well done JBEX ! Winning these futures is crazy difficult as you know. But I think the education that one gets by analyzing and following these horses this time of year is well worth the effort put in compared to the education and broader overview one gets out.
At the end of the day, as a horse player, you see things from another angle, not just betting. THAT, is the essence of a solid well rounded horse player, or trainer, or anything when it come to this game. You would not believe me if I told you how many owners and believe it or not, even trainers , that have very little if any concept of what you are learning by the approach you take. It's a higher percentage than you would believe.
Keep up the good work and I appreciate the info you send. When I read through it, it's the little and underplayed things I see that usually catch my eye and my mind. Like the solid gallop out stuff. It's hard for me to quantify how that makes me prick my ears when I see it, and daydream about back in the day after I read it. Not always, but when it does, I do enjoy it. For that, thank you.Comment -
no problem str
definitely made me feel a little better seeing that older horses ran it in the same time the following day..Thought you would think positively about the gallop out also..The guy in there really loves this horse lol and was even pondering where he might run next..That can always be tricky,as you know,when you most likely will have multiple prospects like todd..understand a good showing and not necessarily a win could move them on to a final prep
hopefully will remain injury free and at least be able to have a shot at a 2nd leg somewhere..
if you get through that race feel you at least got a lot of "bang for your buck" on the wager..certainly a little luck is required in the derby no matter how good the horse is
thanks for the compliment on the capping..like to try and approach it from a different perspective and have read enough books to know a few good angles and have a feel for things
will be an interesting follow over the next couple of months.. with any luck he'll not only be a starter but a serious contender
come derby day
as always thanks for the feedbackComment -
know we (you lol) discussed forego just a few months ago ..came across this where a multiple eclipse award winning writer reflects on the horse and his interviews with frank whiteley ,shoemaker and a little bit with the owner/breeder martha gerry..not a long read
Comment -
Frank Whiteley made "hosing" a horse popular long before that actually. He was doing it at Laurel in 1972 in the late fall for sure. I was a green hotwalker who knew nothing. He was right next door in barn 20 at Laurel. They had small access roads on both sides of each barn for feed trucks, etc. He would have a hotwalker stand out in the road and run the turned on hose with no nozzle and let the water crest just above the horses knee and let it run down the leg. He did it for about 15-20 minutes everyday. Dickie Dutrow was next door in barn 19 and knew him very well. They would stand at the 3/8ths pole gap at Laurel every morning to watch their horses train. Didn't take long for Dickie to ask him what he was doing. Once he found out, Dickie started doing it with a few horses that had active angry joints. Guess who was elected to stand there in the cool and getting colder by the day late fall and hose a horse or two everyday? Yep, me, the lowest rung on the totem pole. A totally monotonous job. Really boring. I figured out if I took a bucket with me, I at least had somewhere to sit while doing it. Quickly figured out you needed gloves as well. Hands were like ice. A few months later I became a groom. Thankfully, my hosing sentence was gone and off to the next person in line.
JBEX, this hosing worked extremely well. For some, it was much better than standing in a whirlpool or ice boots. It was just something that if you found the right horse for it, they basically had new life. The downside was, they were running great but therefore putting more pressure on an angry joint somewhere on there legs. But boy did it work on some of them. It was like new life for some horses. Amazing!
Right about when I retired, the EPA put a stop to it in Md. and barred trainers from doing it because of the runoff of mud, crap, whatever into the sewer systems.
The part about knowing where the wire was is very true. He was incredible as we talked about . Zenyatta followed up years later with the same type of thing.
It takes a very intelligent horse to be that accurate. It also shows you the personality's of horses, especially the ones that are great and know it. Looking the opposition in the eye? Lol. Yep. Saw that on a smaller but similar scale with Lucky Lord and a few others.
Forego was indeed the king. He beat real nice horses with 137 pounds and on the left lead for the last 1/2 mile. That's crazy.
And if you watch Honest Pleasure, when they turn for home, his jock has a ton of horse. He can't lose. Or so it seems until Forego takes it from him.
That is right when I started training. Very cool to read that.
Thanks JBEX.Comment -
Hey STR: Off topic from the ponies. Where is your $$$ going this weekend for the 2 gridiron games? Have any leans sides or totals? THX in advance.Comment -
With the injury to Mahomes, nobody knows what's really going on. That puts players in a tough spot. Without the injury, I would have said Cincinnati + the points. So with it, that is where I would land assuming it is about "pick" or +1.
The SF quarterback finally looked at least somewhat like a rookie last week. I've seen parts of all his games and before last week, he did not look anything like one IMO. So I think that continues against Phila. Two very good teams. I would play Phila and lay the 2 1/2 or hopefully less.
I don't really care for totals. Rarely play them. But that's just me.
That's my take. How about you EZ?Comment -
no problem str and glad you enjoyed
interesting that running water had a big effect on some of the horses..would think that just the coldness of it would help without the movement..Kind of amazing as unpleasant as it was (for you lol) that you were doing something to some of your horses that was helping to keep one of the superstars of the game on top of his (condidering you heard ot from the source) Nice benefit of being stabled next to a hall of fame trainer like Frank Whiteley and sure your boss learned a lot from his conversations with him also
I agree that having a nose for the wire is an amazing thing and maybe something that happened more during that time period because of how often they ran..34 wins in 57 starts is something we'd be lucky to see a third of with modern day horses(19 starts)..beating top horses 6f -12f is an amazing feat
"Some giant old steam engine sitting on bicycle wheels" and "shoemaker looked like a flea sitting on his back" were great descriptions in the article
scary to think how good he'd have been at equal weights..
humorous that the saddle with the weights was not easy for such a small jockey to carry over to the scale ..about 40lbs is a lot for a guy who weighs under 100 lbs like shoemaker
my thought just from watching the marlboro replay and a few others on you tube was he was kind of like an "easy goer" type ..big and a grinder who takes some time to get his momentum going but when he does watch out..that'd have made for some great battles had they raced in the same eraComment -
one other thing I think is worthwhile bringing up regarding kingsbarns
stud fees
sire:uncle mo $150k
dam sire: tapit $185k (2 years ago $300k)
2nd dam sire:kingmambo (when active topped at $300k ) although turf,was an extreme stamina influence
kingmambo as the 3rd male influence in addition to the already elite sire and dam sire combo is an incredible amount of class in the first 3 generations of this pedigreeLast edited by JBEX; 01-26-23, 09:22 PM.Comment -
busy weekend for army mule progeny starting with aqueduct tomorrowLast edited by JBEX; 01-31-23, 02:22 PM.Comment -
-
Q. .would think that just the coldness of it would help without the movement.
A. The vets could not answer that. Trainers could not either except to say it worked. I just really helped some horses more than others. It never hurt to do it, but sometimes the results were incredible.
I used to do it all the time with my horses. Many more trainers didn't than did but other trainers did it sometimes. Especially former Dutrow employees.
Q. Kind of amazing as unpleasant as it was (for you lol) that you were doing something to some of your horses that was helping to keep one of the superstars of the game on top of his (condidering you heard ot from the source) Nice benefit of being stabled next to a hall of fame trainer like Frank Whiteley and sure your boss learned a lot from his conversations with him also
A. No question Dickie learned plenty from Mr. Whiteley. That's kind of how it works on the backside. Keep your eyes and ears open and you'll probably learn something new everyday.
I had no idea at the time what I was doing or how it came to be. Just a green kid doing it. I never considered exactly how it started until I read that article. I think I read that article a long time ago but did not put it together then. I shake my head when I think that I was the kid that was involved in kind of starting to grow a thing that would be part of Forego's story. Albeit the dumbest person in that story. Even Forego was smarter. Lol.
Q. I agree that having a nose for the wire is an amazing thing and maybe something that happened more during that time period because of how often they ran..34 wins in 57 starts is something we'd be lucky to see a third of with modern day horses(19 starts)..beating top horses 6f -12f is an amazing feat
A. You are probably right about that. Makes sense.
Q. "Some giant old steam engine sitting on bicycle wheels" and "shoemaker looked like a flea sitting on his back" were great descriptions in the article
A. Excellent !
Q. scary to think how good he'd have been at equal weights..
humorous that the saddle with the weights was not easy for such a small jockey to carry over to the scale ..about 40lbs is a lot for a guy who weighs under 100 lbs like shoemaker
A. I never thought about that. That must have been a sight to see.
Q. my thought just from watching the marlboro replay and a few others on you tube was he was kind of like an "easy goer" type ..big and a grinder who takes some time to get his momentum going but when he does watch out..that'd have made for some great battles had they raced in the same era
A. Probably right. I'd take Forego. But that's just being sentimental.Comment
