Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

This race looks like most players will quickly settle for trying to figure out which firster, the 1,2 or 3 to play. No real eye catching existing form from the others. That might help at least somewhat pricewise. I DO like the even run going 5.5F and now moving to 7/8ths. That should have this horse forwardly placed if they want to. The work makes no sense whatsoever. It had to be more than just a 3/8ths breeze. Think about it.
Runs 5 1/2F and 15 days later you work 3/8ths, then wait 14 days to run 7/8ths??? Weird. But not if it was a 7/8ths type work that was 15,15,14,14,12 2/5ths, 12,12. If THATS the case, it is a real nice set up. I used to do that all the time. Maybe he does as well. If that's the case, the horse might set off a bit more, like 5 lengths and pick it up as they go. Paco suggests aggressive and nearer to the lead so mixed messages there but that's ok with me. I did not realize that Gary's numbers were that weak. I see what you mean.
All in all, if you are trying to beat Chad, Irad, and Clement, and why not try, this one makes sense too me. Probably worth a swing as I see nothing to discourage trying.

On a side note, from the earlier post, following Kate, a graduate of my mentor, she is a clone of most of us when it comes to managing babies. Improve 2nd out, win 3rd out. Keep an eye on that one next time. But it won't be much price. Kind of fun to watch a movie unfold just the way you figured it would though. That stuff so few people see, but you and others that read here can.
Best of luck if you play.
Thanks JBEX !

np str

didn't think about it (and a little beyond something I'd think about) but I agree the 3/8 ths makes no sense and what you said does ..I know you've mentioned that type of work many times before on here..understand it's just speculation
though..glad you think that race was a good prep for today

excellent info to know on kathleen (aka Kate lol)..has some nice experience under her belt and based on what you said should be a contender in her next start..I agree that she will not be a great price if it comes up an average field


appreciate the feedback as always

[JBEX]

meadowlands

R5 #8 loaded joe (6-1) [8:47]


hey str

not completely convinced that this drop (as radical as it is) isn't well meant..I think those turf sprints at nyra translate well to going 2 turns at this low level..any feel on that or the drop that he's taking today ?

realize kind of late but as always it serves as a mini write up if you can't get to it lol

[str]

meadowlands

R5 #8 loaded joe (6-1) [8:47]


hey str

not completely convinced that this drop (as radical as it is) isn't well meant..I think those turf sprints at nyra translate well to going 2 turns at this low level..any feel on that or the drop that he's taking today ?

realize kind of late but as always it serves as a mini write up if you can't get to it lol

This time of year, it is no surprise that you see people dropping these turf horses for bargain prices. It is because in about another month or so, they will need to be turned out until January and trained back up until April or May to run on the grass next year. This particular horse will become eligible for 7,500 starter handicaps for a year after starting tonight. On paper, and not seeing the horse, this one is probably worth that in Md. or Penn Nat. or anywhere there is starter turf for 7,500 or less. Yes you spend that much and more again having the horse ready for the spring but it seems to me that this horse , if it runs back to those earlier races, would be worth it. But... most starter races for 7,500 or less are going long. Looks like this one might be better suited as a sprinter. So kind of tricky as to wanting to claim this one and spend the money for next year or not. If indeed it translates to going longer, I think, if sound, this horse is worth that all day long. (Got to remember though, I don't follow how tough those races are anymore.) Back in the day, this one would have been fine.
As for the race, the horse fits but can it handle the distance in the same fashion it handled going shorter? I don't know.
I am fairly confident that the drop is all about being October with nowhere to run so let's sell. And if we win, great. That's my feel for the drop. You can see others doing so as well. This one is better though.
Good luck if you play JBEX !

[JBEX]

This time of year, it is no surprise that you see people dropping these turf horses for bargain prices. It is because in about another month or so, they will need to be turned out until January and trained back up until April or May to run on the grass next year. This particular horse will become eligible for 7,500 starter handicaps for a year after starting tonight. On paper, and not seeing the horse, this one is probably worth that in Md. or Penn Nat. or anywhere there is starter turf for 7,500 or less. Yes you spend that much and more again having the horse ready for the spring but it seems to me that this horse , if it runs back to those earlier races, would be worth it. But... most starter races for 7,500 or less are going long. Looks like this one might be better suited as a sprinter. So kind of tricky as to wanting to claim this one and spend the money for next year or not. If indeed it translates to going longer, I think, if sound, this horse is worth that all day long. (Got to remember though, I don't follow how tough those races are anymore.) Back in the day, this one would have been fine.
As for the race, the horse fits but can it handle the distance in the same fashion it handled going shorter? I don't know.
I am fairly confident that the drop is all about being October with nowhere to run so let's sell. And if we win, great. That's my feel for the drop. You can see others doing so as well. This one is better though.
Good luck if you play JBEX !

based on what you said I don't think it's necessarily a
fire sale and there's definitely some incentive to run here ..if he wins and doesn't get taken they have a horse who'll be eligible for starter handicaps..a good thing ,as you said, if he can get 2 turns..not horrible if they lose him factoring the expenses of turning him out and prepping for next year


he's 9-5 with 10 mtp as I'm posting this ..thanks for the feedback str

[JBEX]

based on what you said I don't think it's necessarily a
fire sale and there's definitely some incentive to run here ..if he wins and doesn't get taken they have a horse who'll be eligible for starter handicaps..a good thing ,as you said, if he can get 2 turns..not horrible if they lose him factoring the expenses of turning him out and prepping for next year


he's 9-5 with 10 mtp as I'm posting this ..thanks for the feedback str

well the connections got some money to end the year and saw he wasn't taken.. checked pen nat and delaware and they have no races left that would fit him.. only 1 I saw that might make a little sense is a clm6250n3l going two turns @ presque isle on 10/20.. kind of a quick return and no guarantee he'd like the poly track.. condition wise would seem to be a good spot.. more than likely that will conclude the year and possibly has some good races left in him next year at the smaller (vs nyra) east coast tracks

[str]

well the connections got some money to end the year and saw he wasn't taken.. checked pen nat and delaware and they have no races left that would fit him.. only 1 I saw that might make a little sense is a clm6250n3l going two turns @ presque isle on 10/20.. kind of a quick return and no guarantee he'd like the poly track.. condition wise would seem to be a good spot.. more than likely that will conclude the year and possibly has some good races left in him next year at the smaller (vs nyra) east coast tracks

Sunday Oct. 24th there is a nw/3 lifetime for 16k-12k going 1 1/16th on the turf.

The Presque Isle race is better.

If soundness is not an issue and probably is not, they should run at Presque Isle. He should run very well there. The Md. race will have horses laying in from the a other than and 25K probably. Just depends on if all the sudden they want to keep him until next year now.

I know it's quick back and a long haul but the horse has all winter to recover.

[JBEX]

Sunday Oct. 24th there is a nw/3 lifetime for 16k-12k going 1 1/16th on the turf.

The Presque Isle race is better.

If soundness is not an issue and probably is not, they should run at Presque Isle. He should run very well there. The Md. race will have horses laying in from the a other than and 25K probably. Just depends on if all the sudden they want to keep him until next year now.

I know it's quick back and a long haul but the horse has all winter to recover.

you know for some reason I had it in my mind big m was just a week .. must have got it confused with what atlantic city had to do years ago to keep simulcasting..I should've known better and obviously didn't check the book for meadowlands


so you like pid better than the bigm spot. guess by price tag makes a lot more sense and the ship isn't too far

[str]

you know for some reason I had it in my mind big m was just a week .. must have got it confused with what atlantic city had to do years ago to keep simulcasting..I should've known better and obviously didn't check the book for meadowlands



Never looked at the Meadowlands. I assumed it was done with turf or like you said, going to be over.
so you like pid better than the bigm spot. guess by price tag makes a lot more sense and the ship isn't too far

I screwed up. I did not identify where my race was. Lol. It is at Laurel.

So there is Laurel and Presque Isle so far. I would play them as they come. If you skip one and wait and it goes off the turf, you have blown a race. At this point in the season with turf claimers, the condition books do the training. The trainer is just taking them as they come.

Yes, I would think Preque Isle would make him one of the favs.

Can't find a Meadowlands book. The website is a mess. At least for me it is. Lol.

[JBEX]

I screwed up. I did not identify where my race was. Lol. It is at Laurel.

So there is Laurel and Presque Isle so far. I would play them as they come. If you skip one and wait and it goes off the turf, you have blown a race. At this point in the season with turf claimers, the condition books do the training. The trainer is just taking them as they come.

Yes, I would think Preque Isle would make him one of the favs.

Can't find a Meadowlands book. The website is a mess. At least for me it is. Lol.

ok have to keep an eye out for those 2 races..not necessarily a betting opportunity but just to see how he fares


did you know tony dutrow's horse "don't wait up" is running in the breeder's futurity (g1) at kee today ?

[str]

ok have to keep an eye out for those 2 races..not necessarily a betting opportunity but just to see how he fares


did you know tony dutrow's horse "don't wait up" is running in the breeder's futurity (g1) at kee today ?

Again, not sure if there are any races at the Meadowlands. That would be the optimum place but it is difficult to skip any of these at this point.

Yes, I did know about Tony's horse running.

Thanks for making sure.

Really appreciate that.

[JBEX]

Again, not sure if there are any races at the Meadowlands. That would be the optimum place but it is difficult to skip any of these at this point.

Yes, I did know about Tony's horse running.

Thanks for making sure.

Really appreciate that.

no problem str and will be rooting for him


here's a link to all the condition books via equibase..

https://www.equibase.com/static/horsemen/horsemenareaCB.html

looks like meadowlands has a clm 5k n3l or date
at 2 turns on 10/30.. that'd be perfect






.

[JBEX]

belmont

R1 #7 big wonder (15-1)

hey str

wanted to see what you think about this one ..acknowledging the obvious horrible connections which will only add to the price..however the jock did ride the horse to a very competitive finish 3 back..to me this horse can compete at this level .. should be dead fit 3rd off the short layoff,dropping and cutting back to 6f

[str]

belmont

R1 #7 big wonder (15-1)

hey str

wanted to see what you think about this one ..acknowledging the obvious horrible connections which will only add to the price..however the jock did ride the horse to a very competitive finish 3 back..to me this horse can compete at this level .. should be dead fit 3rd off the short layoff,dropping and cutting back to 6f

The best thing about the fall for turf horses is that the people that run them over their heads realize the financial problem they are about to endure. Most become realists in October. This horse has been over it's head constantly. And 58 and change for a workout. Seriously?
All that said, yes, this is a decent spot to try and get a price. I wish the Ward outside horse had drawn inside so this horse could have been outside and comfortable but it is what it is. Irad maybe holds the outside horse off the lead until the 1/4 pole.
Problem though is other trainers are getting aggressive as well in October. That makes these fields tougher.

All in all, sure. Probably be 30-1 again. Worth a stab at that even with the horrible numbers. You don't have to win many of those to be ahead overall.
Best of luck if you play JBEX.

[JBEX]

The best thing about the fall for turf horses is that the people that run them over their heads realize the financial problem they are about to endure. Most become realists in October. This horse has been over it's head constantly. And 58 and change for a workout. Seriously?
All that said, yes, this is a decent spot to try and get a price. I wish the Ward outside horse had drawn inside so this horse could have been outside and comfortable but it is what it is. Irad maybe holds the outside horse off the lead until the 1/4 pole.
Problem though is other trainers are getting aggressive as well in October. That makes these fields tougher.

All in all, sure. Probably be 30-1 again. Worth a stab at that even with the horrible numbers. You don't have to win many of those to be ahead overall.
Best of luck if you play JBEX.

thanks str

guess it may even be possible that they had this spot in mind all along as the first race off the layoff was only 3 weeks ago..I think statebred allowance races in ny are even tougher than starter allowance and obviously 40k open is a very tough field..the first good effort came dropping,back in a week on 6/25
although that was same distance and today's a cut back..agree it'd be much better if he drew outside of the ww horse


appreciate the feedback as always

[JBEX]

you think the flipside of that work is that it shows the horse is sharp?..the obvious negative that you're referring to is it takes to much out of them prior to the race

[JBEX]

The best thing about the fall for turf horses is that the people that run them over their heads realize the financial problem they are about to endure. Most become realists in October. This horse has been over it's head constantly. And 58 and change for a workout. Seriously?
All that said, yes, this is a decent spot to try and get a price. I wish the Ward outside horse had drawn inside so this horse could have been outside and comfortable but it is what it is. Irad maybe holds the outside horse off the lead until the 1/4 pole.
Problem though is other trainers are getting aggressive as well in October. That makes these fields tougher.

All in all, sure. Probably be 30-1 again. Worth a stab at that even with the horrible numbers. You don't have to win many of those to be ahead overall.
Best of luck if you play JBEX.

yup ..wound up between both brothers who finished 2nd and 3rd..faded top of the the stretch

[str]

you think the flipside of that work is that it shows the horse is sharp?..the obvious negative that you're referring to is it takes to much out of them prior to the race

Sure. The good news is the horse is doing really well mentally and physically. The bad news is, he just left his race on the track. I mean, the best of the best and an occasional horse can do that. But when a horse has not shown that in the AM and all the sudden does, most likely, and a fan HAS to guess at this with no other info, the horse expended way too much energy and will run flat if it's within a week or less. Maybe even more than a week.

[str]

yup ..wound up between both brothers who finished 2nd and 3rd..faded top of the the stretch

Talking to riders after the race cured me of any thoughts that pace does not make the race and position goes hand and hand with that. Being in between or being outside controlling is night and day. One is great. One is really rough more often than not. It's not impossible but it is real tough.
It really means a LOT.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Talking to riders after the race cured me of any thoughts that pace does not make the race and position goes hand and hand with that. Being in between or being outside controlling is night and day. One is great. One is really rough more often than not. It's not impossible but it is real tough.
It really means a LOT.

Thanks JBEX.

saw so much I liked there in the pp's for a price horse but can't overcome that scenario ..firm believer in what you said ..nothing worse than being the meat in an ortiz brother sandwich lmao

[JBEX]

hey str

bel

R4 #2 r doc (15-1)

what I see (read last paragraph first lol )

debut sloppy off turf belmont so forgiveable..

2nd start..not a horrible effort vs open msw @ bel..bad jock aboard

blinkers on next 2 vs msw's going 2 turns..looks like not best of trips and of course toughest msw's as there are..did little though

off 2+ month rest with blinkers off shows speed and hold pretty well to finish 4th..pace was on fast side according to brisnet..nice improvement

trainer perfect 2nd off layoff albeit very small sample


now I've probably wasted both our times as I just noticed that was 5 days ago and probably won't run today lol..this was a restricted msw so a much easier spot..interesting they tried opens..have to keep an eye out for this one

[str]

hey str

bel

R4 #2 r doc (15-1)

what I see (read last paragraph first lol )

debut sloppy off turf belmont so forgiveable..

2nd start..not a horrible effort vs open msw @ bel..bad jock aboard

blinkers on next 2 vs msw's going 2 turns..looks like not best of trips and of course toughest msw's as there are..did little though

off 2+ month rest with blinkers off shows speed and hold pretty well to finish 4th..pace was on fast side according to brisnet..nice improvement

trainer perfect 2nd off layoff albeit very small sample


now I've probably wasted both our times as I just noticed that was 5 days ago and probably won't run today lol..this was a restricted msw so a much easier spot..interesting they tried opens..have to keep an eye out for this one

They could run back in 5 days. Nowadays that is shocking. But its long on turf and they have all winter to recover. You see abnormal things from trainers with cheap grass horses or non earners this time of year. And I'm not saying I was any different. Lol. Think of it like the squirrels constantly running in front of your car gathering nuts. Everyone in that spot is acting a little goffy. It's panic time for turfers that need money for the winter.
That last race was a real nice improvement. Seems like a weaker than normal race so it's not impossible.
The two non favorites that caught my eye were Jimmy's horse, the 4 (he's a great guy), and the 8. Some hidden form on those.
Well, if the horse runs, good luck !
Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

They could run back in 5 days. Nowadays that is shocking. But its long on turf and they have all winter to recover. You see abnormal things from trainers with cheap grass horses or non earners this time of year. And I'm not saying I was any different. Lol. Think of it like the squirrels constantly running in front of your car gathering nuts. Everyone in that spot is acting a little goffy. It's panic time for turfers that need money for the winter.
That last race was a real nice improvement. Seems like a weaker than normal race so it's not impossible.
The two non favorites that caught my eye were Jimmy's horse, the 4 (he's a great guy), and the 8. Some hidden form on those.
Well, if the horse runs, good luck !
Thanks JBEX.

no problem str

can see the positives in yours and an ortiz brother getting on never a bad thing..nice effort in debut 3 back..think you mentioned once a connection to ryerson at least once..(8) Weaver having a nice meet,throw out debut on slop (bet well),pedigree excellent..agree on those

[JBEX]

no problem str

can see the positives in yours and an ortiz brother getting on never a bad thing..nice effort in debut 3 back..think you mentioned once a connection to ryerson at least once..(8) Weaver having a nice meet,throw out debut on slop (bet well),pedigree excellent..agree on those

a very wide trip (8) also

[littlekona]

you guys see Kendrick Carmouche of late....Kid just got back off Injury layoff and been riding at PARX all week and NYRA when T-Sun. He's really trying on everything and on fire and decent prices at Belmont

[JBEX]

you guys see Kendrick Carmouche of late....Kid just got back off Injury layoff and been riding at PARX all week and NYRA when T-Sun. He's really trying on everything and on fire and decent prices at Belmont

haven't noticed kona but have to keep an eye out..generally speaking I miss the hot spells of jocks but don't deny there importance..riding with confidence definitely makes a difference and sure str would agree with that

[JBEX]

hey str

mott and shug have really well bred firsters in R3 @ bel sunday (latter's is a megabucks horse).. you think these two trainers prefer the 6.5 - 7f races in the fall as a starting point for their top prospects vs the earlier spots at saratoga .. classy distance pedigrees and they have more time to develop physically ?

[str]

hey str

mott and shug have really well bred firsters in R3 @ bel sunday (latter's is a megabucks horse).. you think these two trainers prefer the 6.5 - 7f races in the fall as a starting point for their top prospects vs the earlier spots at saratoga .. classy distance pedigrees and they have more time to develop physically ?

Well, the plan with babies is often dictated somewhat by the babies themselves. These two were never going to run at Saratoga. I can't say that it was because they did not want the 6F as an only option or not. Shugs was at Fair Hill. He had no intentions of running there but it could have been shins, his size or any number of reasons physically that made that horse not ready.
Motts horse was actually at Saratoga in June training up to a race. In this case, it looks like he had to back off for a reason and started back way too late to run there. And he might not have really wanted to anyway. We don't know although it seems logical that last June he probably thought he would have run him there in August if he was ready because he was training there, right?
So probably the horse made both of them not consider it.
The pedigrees do favor distance and we are later in the year now so going 6 1/2 or 7F does make sense. And we know that both, and especially Shug are relax, relax, relax when it comes to teaching these babies.
So not sure if they prefer it but I can't imaging they are disappointed about not being able to. Saratoga babies is speed and go for those short distances. We do not talk about those two trainers with speed and go in the sentence very often do we?
So I think you are seeing it correctly. At the end of the day, at this point they are both very comfortable with 7F going into today . At least from the training patterns and their past training habits we have watched.
Good eye JBEX. Good luck if you play.

[JBEX]

Well, the plan with babies is often dictated somewhat by the babies themselves. These two were never going to run at Saratoga. I can't say that it was because they did not want the 6F as an only option or not. Shugs was at Fair Hill. He had no intentions of running there but it could have been shins, his size or any number of reasons physically that made that horse not ready.
Motts horse was actually at Saratoga in June training up to a race. In this case, it looks like he had to back off for a reason and started back way too late to run there. And he might not have really wanted to anyway. We don't know although it seems logical that last June he probably thought he would have run him there in August if he was ready because he was training there, right?
So probably the horse made both of them not consider it.
The pedigrees do favor distance and we are later in the year now so going 6 1/2 or 7F does make sense. And we know that both, and especially Shug are relax, relax, relax when it comes to teaching these babies.
So not sure if they prefer it but I can't imaging they are disappointed about not being able to. Saratoga babies is speed and go for those short distances. We do not talk about those two trainers with speed and go in the sentence very often do we?
So I think you are seeing it correctly. At the end of the day, at this point they are both very comfortable with 7F going into today . At least from the training patterns and their past training habits we have watched.
Good eye JBEX. Good luck if you play.

see what you're saying about mott's starting early with the works at saratoga so good guess he may have been considering to run him there if things went as planned..that is a long break from june to aug so obviously he wouldn't be ready for a saratoga debut..
with shug as you said looks like he was never considering running him there..is kind of interesting that 4 days after he shipped him from fair hill he worked him 3f at saratoga..nothing to do with running him there as the meet was over (or close)


no absolutely these two aren't chad and todd when it comes to winning out of the box and guessing there big bucks owners just want to do what's right for the horse..think I favor shug's here..chad is obvious but maybe the switch from mud at saratoga to fast at belmont will affect him in a negative way..mott has the 2nd choice in the race running also..should be interesting..thanks for the feedback str

[littlekona]

haven't noticed kona but have to keep an eye out..generally speaking I miss the hot spells of jocks but don't deny there importance..riding with confidence definitely makes a difference and sure str would agree with that

wow 3 more today and prices too !!!!

[JBEX]

wow 3 more today and prices too !!!!

you ain't kidding ..amazing!

[JBEX]

Well, the plan with babies is often dictated somewhat by the babies themselves. These two were never going to run at Saratoga. I can't say that it was because they did not want the 6F as an only option or not. Shugs was at Fair Hill. He had no intentions of running there but it could have been shins, his size or any number of reasons physically that made that horse not ready.
Motts horse was actually at Saratoga in June training up to a race. In this case, it looks like he had to back off for a reason and started back way too late to run there. And he might not have really wanted to anyway. We don't know although it seems logical that last June he probably thought he would have run him there in August if he was ready because he was training there, right?
So probably the horse made both of them not consider it.
The pedigrees do favor distance and we are later in the year now so going 6 1/2 or 7F does make sense. And we know that both, and especially Shug are relax, relax, relax when it comes to teaching these babies.
So not sure if they prefer it but I can't imaging they are disappointed about not being able to. Saratoga babies is speed and go for those short distances. We do not talk about those two trainers with speed and go in the sentence very often do we?
So I think you are seeing it correctly. At the end of the day, at this point they are both very comfortable with 7F going into today . At least from the training patterns and their past training habits we have watched.
Good eye JBEX. Good luck if you play.

a little too relaxed lol..noticed he was wearing blinkers which I would have to guess would be unusual for him to do with a debuter..think maybe they'll come off for start two or possibly they had nothing to do with his falling back early ?

[JBEX]

hey str


thought you might find parx R8 tomorrow interesting...


michael pino, who I know came up under your mentor, has amazing stats with msw's including debut at a mile or over.. horse is definitely bred to go long

I like #1 one wild woman (10-1) at a bit of a price.. think her debut was a useful race to stretch out off.. tiznow excellent stamina sire and trainer has solid numbers in applicable categories.. jock one of the best at the track.. slight bias towards the inside in routes


of the logical's on the outside I fear "#8 alittleloveandluck (4-1)" the most and think she'll go off as the favorite


keepin' you pretty busy lately lol.. any opinions on the race welcome

[str]

hey str


thought you might find parx R8 tomorrow interesting...


michael pino, who I know came up under your mentor, has amazing stats with msw's including debut at a mile or over.. horse is definitely bred to go long

I like #1 one wild woman (10-1) at a bit of a price.. think her debut was a useful race to stretch out off.. tiznow excellent stamina sire and trainer has solid numbers in applicable categories.. jock one of the best at the track.. slight bias towards the inside in routes


of the logical's on the outside I fear "#8 alittleloveandluck (4-1)" the most and think she'll go off as the favorite


keepin' you pretty busy lately lol.. any opinions on the race welcome

The 8 looks like the horse to go to the front early, all things being equal. Blks. on might help insure that. I see your logic with the distance bred 1 horse. Makes sense when shopping for upsets. Mike's horse is interesting for sure as are his stats with firsters. He is probably the most successful with babies from my mentor first out. The going long first out makes sense in that it's about breathing and finishing and you need plenty of both of those to win first out going long. Mike has always done a real good job with all his horses. His firster stats are very solid and those speak well of him.
Good luck if you play. It's a very interesting race on several levels.
Thanks JBEX.

[str]

you guys see Kendrick Carmouche of late....Kid just got back off Injury layoff and been riding at PARX all week and NYRA when T-Sun. He's really trying on everything and on fire and decent prices at Belmont

Good call there Kona.

He is really focused right now. You can tell by his working multiple tracks everyday. That's a ton of work and travel. You can bet he's out every morning as well, working horses and talking to trainers.
Good for him. I never really knew him but certainly knew of him. He is an aggressive rider and I say that with all respect. He is probably angling for the winter meet in NY. Smart business decision on his part.
I always had him pegged as a speed, position type rider that stays busy on his horse and gets his mounts in the best positions possible.
I think you are spot on . Hope you profit from your analysis. Sounds like you nailed it.
Nice call.

[JBEX]

The 8 looks like the horse to go to the front early, all things being equal. Blks. on might help insure that. I see your logic with the distance bred 1 horse. Makes sense when shopping for upsets. Mike's horse is interesting for sure as are his stats with firsters. He is probably the most successful with babies from my mentor first out. The going long first out makes sense in that it's about breathing and finishing and you need plenty of both of those to win first out going long. Mike has always done a real good job with all his horses. His firster stats are very solid and those speak well of him.
Good luck if you play. It's a very interesting race on several levels.
Thanks JBEX.

thanks str and great info on pino..look forward to seeing the race