Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

thanks str

I see what you're saying about the pace and probably have to lay off of it to have a shot..maybe withe new trainer (since the layoff) and recent running lines he's got him able to relax a bit..with the 2 seems like getting him off the poly
has made a big difference..razor probably a sprint statebred sire but makes up for it with class and stamina with lure as the dam sire..what a runner he was in the day..
maybe a slight negative that the jock chose the 4 instead of mine unless the trainer made that decision..he has had success with this jockey in the recent past..4 would be my secondary choice also and take note of what you said of winning on the stretch out before..the route race he did win was faster than the pace pars for this level even though it was cheaper company.. maybe based on his race 2 back he can lay a little off the pace..lots going on..we will see

One comment on the previous rider of the 1 on the other horse. You are right, we do not know the circumstances for the mount but I can't tell you how many times a rider took off mine and rode the other horse and I beat him. Happens a lot. It always makes you feel a little better when you play into the rider move and a little leery if you are against that move but once the gates open, it doesn't really matter.
GL JBEX.

[JBEX]

hey str

can't leave you alone these days but this is more of a "check this out" than a handicapping question or comment.. although I think there might be a little merit at big odds

indiana R4 #1 akedah (20-1)

beyers or any figures looks so strange to have a horse finish a combined 72 lengths behind in his 1st two starts and still eke out a low single figure speed figure in both..


2's are wild... 2 starts.. (almost two 2 figures) 2k cost.. 2 years old.. 2nd lasix.. 2% jock (even though it says 3 they round up) 2nd start at this track-.22 on $2 roi going 2nd lasix..

how about trainer # starts this year is the same number as his roi (unfortunately lol)

I actually asked you about this horse when he made his first start at belmont why the trainer would bother

on a slight longshot note.. has the rail.. looks like that didn't help last out but now at least she has some experience with it.. as I said above 2nd lasix and a pace figure breaking slow that's very good vs these..nobody's made it to the lead in this race.. you think some decent long shot angles?


I need one after yesterday's overall performance

[str]

hey str

can't leave you alone these days but this is more of a "check this out" than a handicapping question or comment.. although I think there might be a little merit at big odds

indiana R4 #1 akedah (20-1)

beyers or any figures looks so strange to have a horse finish a combined 72 lengths behind in his 1st two starts and still eke out a low single figure speed figure in both..


2's are wild... 2 starts.. (almost two 2 figures) 2k cost.. 2 years old.. 2nd lasix.. 2% jock (even though it says 3 they round up) 2nd start at this track-.22 on $2 roi going 2nd lasix..

how about trainer # starts this year is the same number as his roi (unfortunately lol)

I actually asked you about this horse when he made his first start at belmont why the trainer would bother

on a slight longshot note.. has the rail.. looks like that didn't help last out but now at least she has some experience with it.. as I said above 2nd lasix and a pace figure breaking slow that's very good vs these..nobody's made it to the lead in this race.. you think some decent long shot angles?


I need one after yesterday's overall performance

I always enjoy these JBEX.
When I am in front of my computer in my office, keep them coming. Allows me to take a break sometimes.
With all the 2's everywhere, betting 2 bucks not the worst you can do. You have a solid chance to be in front when they hit the turn. Of course that's only 3/16ths away from the gate but if so, maybe the field blows the turn. Lol. Seriously, you never know when they get in front. Sometimes they run scared up there. A weak group so it's not like there are monsters waiting to swoop down. 20-1, what the heck.
GL JBEX.

[JBEX]

I always enjoy these JBEX.
When I am in front of my computer in my office, keep them coming. Allows me to take a break sometimes.
With all the 2's everywhere, betting 2 bucks not the worst you can do. You have a solid chance to be in front when they hit the turn. Of course that's only 3/16ths away from the gate but if so, maybe the field blows the turn. Lol. Seriously, you never know when they get in front. Sometimes they run scared up there. A weak group so it's not like there are monsters waiting to swoop down. 20-1, what the heck.
GL JBEX.

all that work and she's a vet scratch lol.. a little bit of fun seeing all that anyway..something looks interesting in the future I will always send

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: a question for you relating to Media Professionals in the game. Do you consider the Andy Serlings and Andrew Beyers of the world Handicappers or Businessmen?

[Easy-Rider 66]

and if you answer that question the way I think you will do you think a lot of the stuff put out there by those types of people is Propaganda? Thx in advance.

[str]

Hey STR: a question for you relating to Media Professionals in the game. Do you consider the Andy Serlings and Andrew Beyers of the world Handicappers or Businessmen?

They are handicappers that eventually found jobs or other opportunities within the game they love. Not really sure if having a job in a game you love makes you a businessman or just a person that loves a game and has a job, thus earning a paycheck within that game.

If enough opportunities come along, than those can be labeled business decisions at some point. So it's kind of a fine line from one to the other.
A pure businessman in my mind, is a different person altogether. But that's just my way of seeing it.

[Easy-Rider 66]

They are handicappers that eventually found jobs or other opportunities within the game they love. Not really sure if having a job in a game you love makes you a businessman or just a person that loves a game and has a job, thus earning a paycheck within that game.

If enough opportunities come along, than those can be labeled business decisions at some point. So it's kind of a fine line from one to the other.
A pure businessman in my mind, is a different person altogether. But that's just my way of seeing it.

ok thx for answer. Makes sense.

[str]

and if you answer that question the way I think you will do you think a lot of the stuff put out there by those types of people is Propaganda? Thx in advance.

By propaganda, I'm not clear on what you mean. do you mean their picks? Or thought processes?

[Easy-Rider 66]

By propaganda, I'm not clear on what you mean. do you mean their picks? Or thought processes?

what I mean is that their main job is to get people to play the game and purchase their products. by any means needed, they are advocates for DRF and in Serlings case NYRA as well.

[Easy-Rider 66]

the bottom line of their respective employers is their main focus not the average player?

[Easy-Rider 66]

the bottom line of their respective employers is their main focus not the average player?

not that there is anything inherently wrong with that reality except they may at times lead one to believe they are player advocates?

[str]

what I mean is that their main job is to get people to play the game. by any means needed, they are advocates for DRF and in Serlings case NYRA as well.

I think it might be more of allowing people to better understand and see the game which in and by itself would enhance the persons interest because they would start to see what they are seeing from a more informed view.

Like athletes on TV that do the color for a game in all the sporting events. They tell you things or explain things that you just saw and after hearing it, you see it in a better light.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I think it might be more of allowing people to better understand and see the game which in and by itself would enhance the persons interest because they would start to see what they are seeing from a more informed view.

Like athletes on TV that do the color for a game in all the sporting events. They tell you things or explain things that you just saw and after hearing it, you see it in a better light.

good point like Tony Romo for the NFL.

[Easy-Rider 66]

But I must say you STR are a TRUE players advocate as you have no vested interest. I just wonder where the profits come into play vs. being a players advocate. I know DFR in particular is always trying to sell me on their products. OK THx for your takes. I will leave it at that.

[str]

the bottom line of their respective employers is their main focus not the average player?

If I was hired to do that type of stuff like Andy, Maggie, Gabby, etc. I would think that my take, and I feel it would be their takes as well, would be to truly help novice to regular players to better understand the game. They, I , and all of those that have lived the game and loved the game, enjoy nothing more than helping others to better see what they are watching.

But because I don't do that, maybe I do not know of the meetings with management that take place. And maybe in those meetings, certain guidelines are asked of the commentators. Again, I don't know. But even if they are, I don't see those people doing something that would harm the fans.
I would need more specifics to comment correctly on an exact question I think.
I hope that helps at least somewhat but please follow up if necessary.

[str]

not that there is anything inherently wrong with that reality except they may at times lead one to believe they are player advocates?

As for players advocates, They might be or not. But I don't think that I hear anything out of them that IMO would harm anyone.

[str]

good point like Tony Romo for the NFL.

Yes. Exactly like that.

[Easy-Rider 66]

If I was hired to do that type of stuff like Andy, Maggie, Gabby, etc. I would think that my take, and I feel it would be their takes as well, would be to truly help novice to regular players to better understand the game. They, I , and all of those that have lived the game and loved the game, enjoy nothing more than helping others to better see what they are watching.

But because I don't do that, maybe I do not know of the meetings with management that take place. And maybe in those meetings, certain guidelines are asked of the commentators. Again, I don't know. But even if they are, I don't see those people doing something that would harm the fans.
I would need more specifics to comment correctly on an exact question I think.
I hope that helps at least somewhat but please follow up if necessary.

Yeah agreed. I really Like Gabby and Maggie. they are excellent paddock reporters. I like Serling as well. I guess I am talking about the business side more than the Individuals involved.

[str]

But I must say you STR are a TRUE players advocate as you have no vested interest. I just wonder where the profits come into play vs. being a players advocate. I know DFR in particular is always trying to sell me on their products. OK THx for your takes. I will leave it at that.

Thank you EZ, I try and help whoever wants it because it's a game I love and respect. Sadly these days, the ugly side of the game and the underlying corruption of certain people within it, especially in Calif. , have reared their ugly heads. Hopefully it all comes out. And from what all I understand and read from between the lines, most people have only seen the tip of the iceberg of what's going on in Calif.

But off of that and back on to this. When talking about DRF, I do hear that every now and then, one of those that work for DRF might drop a subtle line about " you can see that in the racing form" or " "only DRF has that". Sure, if they are paid by DRF , they are asked to talk up DRF. That would make sense. But on the other side of the coin, the consumer must be aware of that. Not only DRF, and yes, they are disgraceful with their crap sometimes, but all major businesses. But Andy Sterling on TVG or something like that, I see him handicapping or explaining his view of a lot of things, similar to the Tony Romo analogy you made. If Andy is pimping the DRF at some point, I guess I have conditioned myself over the years to block that stuff out. I have the luxury of knowing what is true and what is not in horse racing. And no matter where you turn , there is always BS along the way.
Hope all this helps EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thank you EZ, I try and help whoever wants it because it's a game I love and respect. Sadly these days, the ugly side of the game and the underlying corruption of certain people within it, especially in Calif. , have reared their ugly heads. Hopefully it all comes out. And from what all I understand and read from between the lines, most people have only seen the tip of the iceberg of what's going on in Calif.

But off of that and back on to this. When talking about DRF, I do hear that every now and then, one of those that work for DRF might drop a subtle line about " you can see that in the racing form" or " "only DRF has that". Sure, if they are paid by DRF , they are asked to talk up DRF. That would make sense. But on the other side of the coin, the consumer must be aware of that. Not only DRF, and yes, they are disgraceful with their crap sometimes, but all major businesses. But Andy Sterling on TVG or something like that, I see him handicapping or explaining his view of a lot of things, similar to the Tony Romo analogy you made. If Andy is pimping the DRF at some point, I guess I have conditioned myself over the years to block that stuff out. I have the luxury of knowing what is true and what is not in horse racing. And no matter where you turn , there is always BS along the way.
Hope all this helps EZ.

yeah good points . THX again STR. a TRUE players advocate.

[str]

Yeah agreed. I really Like Gabby and Maggie. they are excellent paddock reporters. I like Serling as well. I guess I am talking about the business side more than the Individuals involved.

The pure business side of anything is usually a bit of a shock to the consumer whether it's the track, coca cola or life insurance. It's a dirty business in most cases, doing everything they can to make you think you want, need, or would be better off with their product. In a lot of cases, all they want is your money and they will do darn near anything to get it. Typically it is to scare you into thinking you need something but it can be any number of ways.
It is up to each of us to not believe what they see on TV or hear, but to figure out for ourselves. Just take the emotion out of it and do the math. Math does not lie. Commercials and corporations do.
Hope that helps EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The pure business side of anything is usually a bit of a shock to the consumer whether it's the track, coca cola or life insurance. It's a dirty business in most cases, doing everything they can to make you think you want, need, or would be better off with their product. In a lot of cases, all they want is your money and they will do darn near anything to get it. Typically it is to scare you into thinking you need something but it can be any number of ways.
It is up to each of us to not believe what they see on TV or hear, but to figure out for ourselves. Just take the emotion out of it and do the math. Math does not lie. Commercials and corporations do.
Hope that helps EZ.

I understand. I have worked for a couple of companies that I wish I did not work for because of Shady business practices. I guess it is what it is.

[JBEX]

hey str


woodbine

R3 #3 hardy candy (20-1)

wanted to get your opinion on this one if you see it before post (5:49)

factoring in the unknown trainer and
avg/below avg jockey (overall) this will probably be a big price as the ml suggests..has put forth some decent efforts running around this level..had a wide post 2 back and behind a slow pace 3 back (understand pace figs accuracy in the eyes of the beholder)interesting off the layoff they ran him at 2 levels above and wasn't exposed to being claimed with the waiver..i'm thinking 39-1,ran fairly evenly back of the pack to the eighth pole and got some conditioning out of that off the long layoff..did have a bullet work prior to that and know how you feel about those for these types of horses..works were solid,steady and progressive leading up to that though..understand he could just be a dead piece lol but I think there's some signs he could surprise

[JBEX]

hey str


woodbine

R3 #3 hardy candy (20-1)

wanted to get your opinion on this one if you see it before post (5:49)

factoring in the unknown trainer and
avg/below avg jockey (overall) this will probably be a big price as the ml suggests..has put forth some decent efforts running around this level..had a wide post 2 back and behind a slow pace 3 back (understand pace figs accuracy in the eyes of the beholder)interesting off the layoff they ran him at 2 levels above and wasn't exposed to being claimed with the waiver..i'm thinking 39-1,ran fairly evenly back of the pack to the eighth pole and got some conditioning out of that off the long layoff..did have a bullet work prior to that and know how you feel about those for these types of horses..works were solid,steady and progressive leading up to that though..understand he could just be a dead piece lol but I think there's some signs he could surprise

all that explaining and leave out back in 5 days..kind of an important piece of information

[str]

all that explaining and leave out back in 5 days..kind of an important piece of information

Sorry I missed this one JBEX. Was traveling yesterday.

So in this scenario the handicapper gets to peak inside the thought process of the trainer. You make some good points about waiver claim first back, plenty of works although yes, I hate bullets with cheap horses, but the coming back in 5 days is a huge look inside the thoughts of the trainer. It gives you no reason to guess. So you know he is well meant going in.
The question is, is he good enough? The pp's showed that he might not have been the best couple in the race, but he had some previous races that put him with these. So when I get all this insight which is rare when handicapping, it simply comes down to can he beat the others.
It was a reasonable conclusion that at 27-1 he was worth a try. I saw the charts and he ran terribly. But I wouldn't not let that discourage you about how you came up with this horse. The trainer is shaky at best with his prior numbers. His prior numbers were with other trainers, one being his breeder. Obviously the plan was well laid out but poorly executed.
All you can do as a handicapper is justify to yourself that the conclusion drawn on your part was sound. I think it was. You don't have the luxury of seeing the horse the next few days after the race yesterday and seeing if there was an excuse that shows up. So you will want to watch this horse next out to see if there is any life.
All in all, I very much agree with the thought process of how you came up with that horse. I just didn't work out. Maybe this trainer is completely incapable of doing what the form suggested he was doing. But the plan was there and that's all you can go with. With no other stand out in the race, why not. If you see this occur 27 times, I all but guarantee you one will show up and win and plenty will run big. I think that is all you can do with that scenario.
The chart said he finished gamely but he never passed a horse through the lane. I've never seen that before with a horse that beats one other all the way around. Not sure what to make of that comment. Lol. But the chart caller liked something about the effort.
Let's see what he does next out. Not saying he is a play, but do want to see if the improvement shows up.
Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

no problem str and tank you for the feedback..feel good that you like the thought process and as you inferred you just need to hit ones that like that every once in a while to be profitable..I think the key is when you do be grounded about it..give yourself credit but don't walk away thinking you've solved it and you'll pop another in the next few days..while that could happen more likely than not it won't..
have to be realistic about hitting longshots..nothing like the feeling when it works as you know..even a solid 2nd with one of the logicals winning is a nice exacta..

have to ask hart if he'll help me with the follow..through tvg I never seem to get email alerts when I feel I've set it up right..really need to figure out what I'm doing wrong


only thing I noticed in the upper stretch is the 1 and the 8 seemed to come together and he swung inside ..seemed to have good momentum to the wire and finished pretty close in 4-6th place cluster..maybe that's why the chart guy called the stretch run "gamely"


one other note is these are the types of races I like to cap..much more interesting than a 7-8 horse field of stakes horses that are very difficult to separate..not always the case but more often than not for sure

[JBEX]

that horse I mentioned in the last at pimlico was claimed by richard silliman.. I can remember his name from the form a little over the years and sure you know who he is.. yesterday's race had a purse of 15k for n2l and guessing n3l would be about the same...nice pickup for $5k..believe it was a horse the NY owners didn't want to bother with and they were glad he was claimed.. think they are big time players in the claiming game and at higher levels

[JBEX]

hey str

in R2 at churchill today I had a fts #2 rattle n roll who finished 3rd at 16-1..looked like he got out slow and when I watched it again seemed more like he checked sharply maybe 20 yards out of the gate (not gate slow) when I looked at the chart the comment was "broke slow"..just wanted to see what you think of the beginning of that race and his performance overall

[str]

that horse I mentioned in the last at pimlico was claimed by richard silliman.. I can remember his name from the form a little over the years and sure you know who he is.. yesterday's race had a purse of 15k for n2l and guessing n3l would be about the same...nice pickup for $5k..believe it was a horse the NY owners didn't want to bother with and they were glad he was claimed.. think they are big time players in the claiming game and at higher levels

Yes, I know Ricky. His mom and dad had a few horses at Bowie in the 70's and he would come around and help them when he was a kid. His older brother worked in the racing secretary's office for a while. Ricky has been there for all this time I think. Very nice family going way back. He was always a honest, hard working guy. Nice family for sure. Good for him getting a shot to get nicer horses. He deserves it.

[str]

hey str

in R2 at churchill today I had a fts #2 rattle n roll who finished 3rd at 16-1..looked like he got out slow and when I watched it again seemed more like he checked sharply maybe 20 yards out of the gate (not gate slow) when I looked at the chart the comment was "broke slow"..just wanted to see what you think of the beginning of that race and his performance overall

Just saw the replay. This is why the charts can only be taken with some validity. That was a terrible write up on the 2 horse. He got ping ponged early.

The 3 came in and intimidated the 2, two or three jumps out of the gate and as soon as that was over with the 1 just wandered over in front of him and made him check for sure. The rider on the 1 horse was sending his horse to the front. "Broke slow". Lol. He checked twice. All in all, he ran very well.

Replays don't lie. Sometimes charts do. Very nice catch JBEX.

[JBEX]

Just saw the replay. This is why the charts can only be taken with some validity. That was a terrible write up on the 2 horse. He got ping ponged early.

The 3 came in and intimidated the 2, two or three jumps out of the gate and as soon as that was over with the 1 just wandered over in front of him and made him check for sure. The rider on the 1 horse was sending his horse to the front. "Broke slow". Lol. He checked twice. All in all, he ran very well.

Replays don't lie. Sometimes charts do. Very nice catch JBEX.

yeah I thought it wasn't the break and he was checked afterwards..don't look at them as often as I should but always kind of believed like gospel that they were accurate
..very busy job and guess in the name of getting things done might be inaccurate every now and then..think cats put of the bag with this one and probably be no value next out..will try to keep tabs on him anyway..thanks str


on another note they're starting to advertise army mule as a sire and supposedly some of his yearlings have sold well..a year away but since I followed him all along interested to see how his progeny do..I remember you commented on the Carter handicap where he saved ground
shot through the gap coming off the turn and blew them away..earned a 114 beyer for that which I know because it's part of the ad lol..think he's gonna make a good stallion

[JBEX]

remember you commented on the look in his eye from a photo after the race..take no prisoner's get outta my way lol

looks like they're using that on his info page

https://www.hillndalefarms.com/army-mule/

[JBEX]

I'm talking TV ads not the site where he's been for a while

[str]

remember you commented on the look in his eye from a photo after the race..take no prisoner's get outta my way lol

looks like they're using that on his info page


https://www.hillndalefarms.com/army-mule/

Makes sense . He's got those Singletary eyes.

But he would have lost badly to Ruffian in a stare down. Lol.