Saratoga Meet

[getthatheadup]

Nice job today mike! Like I said before, I dont play these days but its nice to come home to see how you guys did. Im not overly superstitious but in my playing days it always felt good to have folks in my corner. Hope you and the others feel the positive vibes! LOL

[mikemca]

Agree...Positive people are just better to be around in general.That's why I choose this board to share my thoughts.Just about everyone is friendly so I don't mind sharing my work.A couple other forums I post at but don't post picks.

Don't like negative people

[harthebar]

mike ..im just curious, what other forums do you use that are out there..is there any creditbility.???? spell check.....any knowledge

[mikemca]

pace advantage
Thorograph(Ask The Experts)
Eponies

they are the ones I frequent


and then there are others

Horse racing talk
horse racing nation

Covers has a horse forum
So does RX
I think TVG has a board




I only really use SBR and PA
used to use thorograph but not so much now

[bigcat21]

Mike was the 2 on your radar at all in the 8th at Saratoga? Jeez got 5/6 on the pk6

[mikemca]

had him in a contest I played

trainer is live with everything and thought it was notable Serpa came up just to ride that one.

Kelly Rubley is now 5 for 11 and 8 of 11 ITM since going out on her own

[bigcat21]

he wasn't even on my board i have a lot to learn from the master

[mikemca]

I've learned that with turf racing you can pretty much throw speed figures out the window and look at everything else

2nd or 3rd off the bench = peak effort

Class - all kinds - some 25k claimers are par with 50k claimers some are like 5ks at the mountain.A msw at a B track like Monmouth/Delaware/GP in the summer/etc... is about the same as a 65k mdn claimer at the spa.sometimes even weaker

jockey changes(some jocks just can't ride on turf i.e. C Borel while some are much better on turf than dirt i.e. Leparoux/Nakatani

sometimes just a big upgrade from a bug to Castellano/Rosario can signal intent

trip handicapping(watching replays) is most relevant with turf racing...for example if you see on a replay that a horse was just stuck in traffic with no where to go...that isn't in the pps , in fact the horse probably got a shytty speed fig because of it

Courses - if a horse is coming off a front running fade at Delaware/Laurel/Pimlico to just about anywhere you can upgrade the effort...Those tracks almost always are tiring and favor closers....works the other way to...a horse that has been spinning its hooves in the stretch somewhere else then gets on DEL/PIM/LRL and bang that big kick actually works

my favorite is a horse that makes a subtle close into a snails pace

I could go on forever , I learn something new everyday

[mrginandtonic]

I've learned that with turf racing you can pretty much throw speed figures out the window and look at everything else

2nd or 3rd off the bench = peak effort

Class - all kinds - some 25k claimers are par with 50k claimers some are like 5ks at the mountain.A msw at a B track like Monmouth/Delaware/GP in the summer/etc... is about the same as a 65k mdn claimer at the spa.sometimes even weaker

jockey changes(some jocks just can't ride on turf i.e. C Borel while some are much better on turf than dirt i.e. Leparoux/Nakatani

sometimes just a big upgrade from a bug to Castellano/Rosario can signal intent

trip handicapping(watching replays) is most relevant with turf racing...for example if you see on a replay that a horse was just stuck in traffic with no where to go...that isn't in the pps , in fact the horse probably got a shytty speed fig because of it

Courses - if a horse is coming off a front running fade at Delaware/Laurel/Pimlico to just about anywhere you can upgrade the effort...Those tracks almost always are tiring and favor closers....works the other way to...a horse that has been spinning its hooves in the stretch somewhere else then gets on DEL/PIM/LRL and bang that big kick actually works

my favorite is a horse that makes a subtle close into a snails pace

I could go on forever , I learn something new everyday

Thanks for sharing Mike.

[mikemca]

np


Was looking forward to 7-Sunnysammi 20-1 in the 5th today at Saratoga but the sloppy track and switch from turf to dirt is troubling.Will still have a couple bucks on her but if she loses and comes back in a turf sprint that might be the spot.

[getthatheadup]

np


Was looking forward to 7-Sunnysammi 20-1 in the 5th today at Saratoga but the sloppy track and switch from turf to dirt is troubling.Will still have a couple bucks on her but if she loses and comes back in a turf sprint that might be the spot.

Hey mike,

Looked this filly up..Like trainer..sire won second out..dam sire won first out..nice works.(8/16 from gate very nice) know race is off turf but what made you like her on this surface..Did not see anything in pedigree. What is her tomlinson on turf? How bout tomlinson on wet track? Best of luck to you!

[mikemca]

Trainer was on a good run with firsters but the thing that jumped out at me was that she has a 99 rating for turf sprints on Timeform breeding ratings while 62 on dirt and dirt sprints.In fact all her ratings are pretty average mostly in the 60s and 70s except turf sprint 99.

I don't only go by their ratings but thought it was an interesting 20-1 shot when I first looked at the race on Monday.I don't use tomlinson , usually I look at the sire and dam stats on twinspires express that I don't already know without looking.

Didn't run too well but will give her a shot if she goes in a turf sprint next.

[getthatheadup]

Trainer was on a good run with firsters but the thing that jumped out at me was that she has a 99 rating for turf sprints on Timeform breeding ratings while 62 on dirt and dirt sprints.In fact all her ratings are pretty average mostly in the 60s and 70s except turf sprint 99.

I don't only go by their ratings but thought it was an interesting 20-1 shot when I first looked at the race on Monday.I don't use tomlinson , usually I look at the sire and dam stats on twinspires express that I don't already know without looking.

Didn't run too well but will give her a shot if she goes in a turf sprint next.

Just got a chance to look at the chart for this race. 14 lengths back in 5 1/2 panels will look bad to many. However she was on the lead through 2nd call in a honest pace. You know how young horses can improve dramatically.( 2 year old fillies in dramatic fashion) Think she might enjoy a modest pace in a rout as well.This situation makes me think of a well known handicapper who said the only way to make money in this sport these days is subtle information. (hidden trainer patterns,track bias not picked up by most etc.) Hogwash! While picking up on such things is great, I firmly believe some of the old basics still work. Now folks may pick up on this gal and she goes off at 3-1 or under. However, they may not look any farther than her up the track finish.Going short or long she may very well wire the field next time out. At a price, thats how money is made in this game.Hope I didnt tip your hand there mike, but after all, who the hell am I with 30 something posts! LOL

[mikemca]

14 race Saturday card looks ripe

[harthebar]

saratoga
race 11 smokey brown will make amends
race 6 aheadofthecurve and succesful brothers
race 3 bern identity
race 10 ithastobegeorge
race 9 closed hatches as long shot stanwyck outsider think he will improve...the rider ?????always scares me....but he gets good mounts...he loves traffic...or maybe its just when i play him....???
race 5 bad hombre
race 4 running wild


finger lakes
race 4 g w hammer

[harthebar]

ripe for picking

14 race Saturday card looks ripe

[harthebar]

travers day.pdf pp's

[TonyP]

travers bris

[JJJ]

Anything for saratoga mike? Appreciate your input

[dise-pa]

thanks for the saratoga form I like the #10 horse trainer shug LOL knight.......

[Madison]

Not the best start to one's day ... Ludicrous WPS and he breaks down mid stretch.

[mikemca]

A few awesome performances and 2 of them lost.

Imperia - Crazy turn of foot for impeccably bred 2 year old

The Big Beast - Is turning into just that

Wicked Strong - Ran way too good to lose

[TonyP]

I have to agree with WS who is coming into a nice horse, has improved lots this half.

[TonyP]

I did not do worth a --- at Woodbine

[mikemca]

Baffert emptying his barn for Pac Classic Day tomorrow

[harthebar]

who do you like there

Baffert emptying his barn for Pac Classic Day tomorrow

[TonyP]

Toast Of NewYork is an interesting horse. will use in pk4

[harthebar]

well lets make a pick 4 up tony im interested in doing it late pick 4 ill give you my picks i got two follow ups

[TonyP]

well lets make a pick 4 up tony im interested in doing it late pick 4 ill give you my picks i got two follow ups

LOL thats exacty what I wanted to do today with yoiu guys from here.

[TonyP]

we can single goldencents on one ticket, we should make a few tickets

[harthebar]

.goldenscents has been my favorite horse since he first ran..i posted it on here in jan of 2013 that he would be in the kentucky derby......str liked him and told me once he gets control of the horse........meaning he just never knew how to settle ......he would become very good.....he was right.....
im just starting to look now...

.Al Freej (IRE)
i do have in my stable..i have to watch some replays.

[harthebar]

late pick 4 del mar
so far subject to change tony just trying to put it together
race 8 Al Freej
race 9 goldenscents
race 10 Imperative long shot toss in ????
race 11 Charisma Code Wholly Hughes like chaisma code...that day was super fast i remember i liked a horse w giles and won that 20-1

[TonyP]

late pk4 so far. we can make a few different tickets.

8--8.9.10--will add
9-5
10-8,11
11--will add , spread here,

[TonyP]

fed biz will probably beat us. or add on a backup ticket

[TonyP]

going to take a nap lol