Mebaran's Penalty Box

mebaran · 11-05-11, 10:45 PM

Pretty good night, thought I was going to get the sweep, but the Islanders made some changes to their lines and apparently they remember how to score goals now....which is good for them.

3-1-0 +1.65 units

leafs_ducks · 11-06-11, 01:36 AM

good job

yeah, couldn't believe caps gave up a 2-0 lead

end up losing 5-3

mebaran · 11-06-11, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by leafs_ducks

good job

yeah, couldn't believe caps gave up a 2-0 lead

end up losing 5-3

Yep, looked like the broom was going to brought out for me, but a credit to NYI, they played very well.

I have only one play today:

Stars -110

VAN/CHI over 5.5 would have been a play if I had bet the opener, but now that it is -125 (on bookmaker), it's a not bet. For the record, all of my lines will be from bookmaker at the time of my posts, give or take 5 minutes.

Enjoy Sunday hockey.

mebaran · 11-06-11, 10:46 AM

Edited the last post, so just to be clear:

Stars -110 for today

mebaran · 11-06-11, 06:23 PM

1-0 today, + 1.00 unit

Overall: 4-1-0, +2.65 units

Now if only football could treat me better....I would be set (insert Tom Brady joke here).

If I end up having a play for tomorrow, I'll post it a little before game time tomorrow night.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday.

bhssoccer89 · 11-06-11, 07:54 PM

good start man i will continue to monitor prob will jump on soon

mebaran · 11-06-11, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by bhssoccer89

good start man i will continue to monitor prob will jump on soon

Thank you thank you. Will let you know how the model is performing and whatnot...just thought I'd let you know. If it ends up breaking down mid season, I'll have to tweak it before I release any more plays, but so far so good...performed very well for the back-test of last year's results. Was up over 25 units, and that's flat betting. If I fraction kelly'd I'd be up a little more...interesting as I JUST started modeling hockey.

mebaran · 11-07-11, 05:44 PM

Nov. 7th Play:

Bruins -175

everyone!

mebaran · 11-07-11, 09:47 PM

1-0, +1.00 unit for the night. Bru Crew played great at home tonight. That's all for tonight, no play on the late game (if I had a lean, it would be to take the Sharks on the ML, but it's a no play for me).

Overall: 5-1-0, +3.65 units

Again, will have plays tomorrow before game time

bhssoccer89 · 11-07-11, 09:56 PM

i jumped on this game thanks guy

mebaran · 11-07-11, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by bhssoccer89

i jumped on this game thanks guy

In the NHL weekly contest I busted this one out for 5 units...that'll help. But yeah, this model is off to a good start. If it makes anything over 10 units, I'll be fairly happy with it, but I've been tweaking slightly as we go to improve.

mebaran · 11-08-11, 01:28 PM

Just a heads up: since I am in an NHL weekly handicapping contest, I may not post plays until a few minutes before game time, as this will give the other cappers an advantage. However, I'm posting mine now as the contest is only 10 points AND I'm not in the lead or close yet. If I end up doing well today, I may have to delay posts.

Anyways, here are my plays for today, Nov 8th:

Toronto Maple Leafs -125
Washington Capitals -160
New Jersey Devils -125
EDM/MON Under 5 +100 (2 units)
Detroit Red Wings -170
CHI/STL Over 5.5 +100 (2 units)
LA/NASH Under 5 +100 (2 units)

Got some good value today (I believe) from the totals above being +100. If you want, go 3 units on the NSH/LA Under 5, as it is my play of the day...I'm just being conservative for now.

today, everyone...

mebaran · 11-09-11, 12:00 AM

3-4-0 today, -2.85 units. Rough day as my top play was way wrong. On to the next day..

Overall: 8-5-0, +0.80 units

mebaran · 11-09-11, 01:25 PM

The "totals" bus ran me over yesterday, but again, there is good value today:

Plays for Nov 9th:

Rangers -120 (to win 2 units)
PHI/TAM Over 6 -105 (to win 2 units)
Flyers -110 (to win 2 units)
Predators EV
NYR/OTT Over 5.5

Rangers is my top play today, I feel like they are playing excellent defense right now. With two days rest coming off a shutout against Winnipeg, this line looks like a gift to me.

on today's plays, everyone.

mebaran · 11-09-11, 02:09 PM

^ The NYR/OTT Over 5.5 is +110

Romanov · 11-09-11, 05:12 PM

Agreed on the Rangers but we are on opposite sides on their total. BOL

mebaran · 11-09-11, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

Agreed on the Rangers but we are on opposite sides on their total. BOL

Yeah I saw that, hopefully on the 6th goal the puck cracks in half and the other half stays in the net...right?

mebaran · 11-10-11, 11:41 AM

2-3-0, -2.3 units for yesterday's plays. The Phi/Tam game was amazing...like they were playing keep away or something.

Overall: 10-8-0, -1.50 units

Will have some plays later when I'm done going through the games.

mebaran · 11-10-11, 01:03 PM

Bruins -190
Blackhawks -155
CHI/CBJ o5½, -115
TOR/STL o5½, -105
Avalanche -135
Coyotes -130
VAN/LAK u5, +105

I've been noticing that my model may be biased towards favorites...I will have to search for a workaround to this and go over my method again. I will be keeping track of my side plays and total plays separately in my own books to keep an eye on things. Don't be surprised to see me stop releasing plays on sides at some point. That means I am tweaking my model. However, until I can get an accurate picture of what is happening, I will continue onward.

today, everyone.

mebaran · 11-11-11, 01:41 AM

4-2-1, +1.65 units for tonight. Really wish I would have doubled up on the Hawks and the over in that game, as they were my two top plays.

Overall: 14-10-1, +0.15 units

mebaran · 11-11-11, 12:59 PM

Washington Capitals -140
New York Rangers -160 (2 units)
OTT/BUF o5½ (-120)
Buffalo Sabres -200 (2 units)
EDM/DET u5½ (-135)
Vancouver Canucks -115

Going to stick with my system and double up the units on my top plays for a while and see. I am also keeping a running record of when my model is in agreement with the market, and how it would be doing betting only 3% edges and up, 5% edges, 10%, 12%, etc. By the end of this season, I should have enough information to REALLY get my model kicked up into high gear for the next year. I can also include pucklines, team totals, and other prop bets into my repertoire.

Until then, check out my sides and totals. AGAIN, please comment on the plays, give your analysis/thoughts, whether you think I am missing something, etc. They call it a forum for a reason.

in tonight's games, all.

Romanov · 11-11-11, 02:36 PM

We are on the same page here throughout. I am seeing the capitals, rangers, buffalo (too much juice for my blood), and canucks as plays for me. I also see the edm winning in a low scoring affair. Rangers ML should be up around buffalo (tons of value there)

mebaran · 11-11-11, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

We are on the same page here throughout. I am seeing the capitals, rangers, buffalo (too much juice for my blood), and canucks as plays for me. I also see the edm winning in a low scoring affair. Rangers ML should be up around buffalo (tons of value there)

Well, this makes me feel better. I've been a little concerned about my model spitting out so many favorites and not enough underdogs. Laying that much juice feels "square", but it's something I guess I'll have to get used to. I'm not quite sure why my model is doing this, but it doesn't seem to be a problem, and when I back tested it did well, so we'll have to see.

jer_33 · 11-11-11, 03:32 PM

Lately if I'm laying juice for a favourite, I'm seriously considering throwing a little at the puckline to ease the pain.

A little insurance I guess...

mebaran · 11-11-11, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by jer_33

Lately if I'm laying juice for a favourite, I'm seriously considering throwing a little at the puckline to ease the pain.

A little insurance I guess...

Be careful in doing so though, as the moneyline, in a lot of cases, has more value.

Example from today:

CAROLINA +1½-240, +130
NY RANGERS -1½+200, -150

My model says that I have about an 8% edge if I bet on the NYR moneyline, but only a 6% edge if I bet the puckline.

Sometimes (especially in baseball) I like taking a team -1 by betting on the ML and PL. In this example, if I bet $150 to win $100 on the Rangers ML, and $50 to win $100 on the PL, I essentially have NYR -1:

If Rangers lose: -$200
If Rangers win by 1: +$50
If Rangers win by 2+: +$200

That is something I am working on incorporating into my repertoire as well, but this first year, I am focusing on straight sides and totals, with possibly a few PL's thrown in the mix (so basically, if you see me post a PL, that means I think it has more value than the ML).

bhssoccer89 · 11-11-11, 11:49 PM

went very small on hawks pl, redwings ml parlay. shouldve been confident and went 2 or 3x

mebaran · 11-12-11, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by mebaran

Washington Capitals -140
New York Rangers -160 (2 units)
OTT/BUF o5½ (-120)
Buffalo Sabres -200 (2 units)
EDM/DET u5½ (-135)
Vancouver Canucks -115

Thanks to the Nucks, I ALMOST pulled out a sweep tonight. Crazy game, but all in all, a very "normal" night in the NHL. Favorites were playing good puck.

Today's Results: 5-1-0, +5.85 units

Overall: 19-11-1, +6.00 units

mebaran · 11-12-11, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by bhssoccer89

went very small on hawks pl, redwings ml parlay. shouldve been confident and went 2 or 3x

Wings barely qualified as +EV, so I threw it out of my plays. Glad that parlay cashed though. I need to start looking at parlays a little more carefully because they can offer ridiculous value here and there.

mebaran · 11-12-11, 03:46 PM

Bruins -155 (3 units)
Maple Leafs -155 (3 units)
OTT/TOR o5½ (-120)
Capitals -205
Penguins -140 (2 units)
MIN/LAK u5-120 (2 units)
Kings -155 (2 units)
Stars +145
TBL/STL o5½ (+105)
PHX/SJ o5½ (+110)

Rather large card today. Tremendous value on the Bruins and Leafs. They are my top plays.

mebaran · 11-13-11, 03:18 PM

Went 3-7-0, -9.90 units yesterday. Pretty ugly

Will have plays soon for today.

Overall: 22-18-1, -3.90 units

Romanov · 11-13-11, 03:20 PM

Get it back! I like the ducks and hawks

mebaran · 11-13-11, 03:38 PM

11/13 Plays:

Canucks -200
PHI/FLA over 5.5 (-105)
Wild +125
MIN/ANA under 5 (EV)
Blackhawks -185

on everyone's plays. I had a long night last night in Wrigleyville...so I may sleep through all the games.

mebaran · 11-13-11, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

Get it back! I like the ducks and hawks

Thanks, Romanov...I will definitely try. I'm on the opposite side in the ANA/MIN game, but yeah the Blackhawks get it done at home me thinks.

Romanov · 11-13-11, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by mebaran

Thanks, Romanov...I will definitely try. I'm on the opposite side in the ANA/MIN game, but yeah the Blackhawks get it done at home me thinks.

I actually have MIN as a play but I am fading myself. It worked last night but it is probably a sign that i need

lol