I went 9 for 9 last night on O/U NHL! Here's how it works -->

spankmythighs · 11-02-11, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by Scully

If you're winning at this high rate, what about doing a rotation of two-game parlays to avoid getting burnt with the high juice if a game loses?

Also Spank how are you arriving at or calculating the averages if I may ask? For example Minny at Detroit last night, did you add the gls for and against for detroit and divide by two; then do the same for the Wild? Then what do you do with the two results from each club?

Yes that is exactly what I have been doing. Tonight I am using GFH/GAH and GFA/GAA because teams have played more home and away games to generate a better average at home and away.

Scully · 11-02-11, 02:28 PM

So Buffalo you get 25 and for the Flyers you get 38 if I'm not mistaken. Then where do you proceed with those two numbers of 25 & 38?

Woops, my bad. You subtract and get the difference I assume.

So for the Flyers-Sabres contest, you end up with the number 6. Is that correct?

Hence the play is over 4.5 for this game?

Is this correct for this particular game Spanky (Buff & Flyers)?

spankmythighs · 11-02-11, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by Scully

So Buffalo you get 25 and for the Flyers you get 38 if I'm not mistaken. Then where do you proceed with those two numbers of 25 & 38?

Woops, my bad. You subtract and get the difference I assume.

So for the Flyers-Sabres contest, you end up with the number 6. Is that correct?

Hence the play is over 4.5 for this game?

Well for tonight because I am using GFH/GAH and GFA/GAA for the Phili/Buf game I have Buff averaging 6 goals per game at home (GFH - 3.2, GAH - 2.8) and Phili is averaging 5.25 goals per game on the road (GFA - 3.25, GAA - 2) so the total is 11.25 divided by 2. That is why I took the over 4.5.

AceKingHigh · 11-02-11, 02:39 PM

Hey dude, that's look like a cool way to determine O/U plays...

Can you check even just a few days back, what would of happen if instead of :
O4.5 / U6.5 You took
O5 / U 6 ?

And that should let you know if it might be worth if for you to play those totals instead of the .5 once that you are onto right now.
Would give some pushes but sometime it would save you some money and when you win - it will make you more... what do you think about it? care to back check it a few days?

Thanks!

Scully · 11-02-11, 02:43 PM

How did you arrive at 3.2 for the Buffalo gls for home? I'm seeing 29/10 = 2.9
And for the Buffalo average goals against I'm getting 22/10 = 2.2 as opposed to your 2.8?

spankmythighs · 11-02-11, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by AceKingHigh

Hey dude, that's look like a cool way to determine O/U plays...

Can you check even just a few days back, what would of happen if instead of :
O4.5 / U6.5 You took
O5 / U 6 ?

And that should let you know if it might be worth if for you to play those totals instead of the .5 once that you are onto right now.
Would give some pushes but sometime it would save you some money and when you win - it will make you more... what do you think about it? care to back check it a few days?

Thanks!

I'll check it out here are the numbers for tonights games and I will add the .5 goal either way aswell to compare.

PHX at COL -185 UNDER 6.5 and UNDER 6 is -161
TOR at NJ -227 OVER 4.5 and OVER 5 is -137
PHI at BUF -345 OVER 4.5 and OVER 5 is -227

spankmythighs · 11-02-11, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by Scully

How did you arrive at 3.2 for the Buffalo gls for home? I'm seeing 29/10 = 2.9
And for the Buffalo average goals against I'm getting 22/10 = 2.2 as opposed to your 2.8?

Regular season only no preseason.

Scully · 11-02-11, 02:48 PM

Yes that's what I'm using Spanky, regular season the Sabres have scored 29 in 10 games, which equals 2.9 per game.
Have allowed 22 in 10 games for an average of 2.2 goals per game allowed.

For the Flyers, they've scored 41 goals in 11 games for an average of 3.7 goals for per game average.
Against, the Flyers have allowed 36 goals in 11 games for a gaa of 3.3.

spankmythighs · 11-02-11, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by Scully

Yes that's what I'm using Spanky, regular season the Sabres have scored 29 in 10 games, which equals 2.9 per game.
Have allowed 22 in 10 games for an average of 2.2 goals per game allowed.

Only use home games for tonights match for Buffalo and only use Phili's away games for reference.

Scully · 11-02-11, 02:54 PM

Ha, now I see. Sorry about the confusion on my part Spanky.

AceKingHigh · 11-02-11, 03:02 PM

Mine showing as :
O4.5 @ -245
O4.5 @ -355
U6.5 @ -180

O5 @ -140
O5 @ -235
U6 @ -155

If say, we parlay all the top 3 we get $2.8 for $1
If we use the O5 , O5, U6 , let's say the U6 Push , we get $2.4 for $1 and if all 3 are good then ofcurse it jumps to : $4 for $1.

Need to think about the risk putting ( $355 , $180 , $245 ) = $780 to win $300 which is $1 for every $2.6

Scully · 11-02-11, 03:11 PM

Is it an error on my screen by chance that shows the Avs having scored all of 5 goals on home ice in 4 games?

Scully · 11-02-11, 03:14 PM

So Spanky have you been doing a round robin involving betting 3 two-team parlays as opposed to 3 single plays on each team?

spankmythighs · 11-02-11, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by Scully

Is it an error on my screen by chance that shows the Avs having scored all of 5 goals on home ice in 4 games?

Nope, they are aweful at home. You could take all 3 games in a parlay and bet them in pairs. I had a couple of nights about a week and half ago where I went 14-0 and 9-0 in a three day stint. I put them all into a parlay using pairs. Sick payout. I forget how many combinations but it was alot.

chrisharvard01 · 11-02-11, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by Scully

Is it an error on my screen by chance that shows the Avs having scored all of 5 goals on home ice in 4 games?

COL has had big problems at home. Doesnt make any sense. As I said in my write-up for this game, these long road tenures has built team unity and I like COL at home tonight to start firing on all cylinders.

sbcash · 11-02-11, 04:55 PM

This is an interesting approach. Spanky are you concerned that it is too soon in the season to begin relying on home/away splits? Sample size of 4-5 away games is somewhat troubling and not surprisingly, this system generates different picks depending on whether we use splits or totals.

Canukc · 11-02-11, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by AceKingHigh

Hey dude, that's look like a cool way to determine O/U plays...

Can you check even just a few days back, what would of happen if instead of :
O4.5 / U6.5 You took
O5 / U 6 ?

And that should let you know if it might be worth if for you to play those totals instead of the .5 once that you are onto right now.
Would give some pushes but sometime it would save you some money and when you win - it will make you more... what do you think about it? care to back check it a few days?

Thanks!

Some pushes Ace? Over 1/4 of regular season games have a 5 total.

AceKingHigh · 11-02-11, 06:59 PM

Philli looks really good right now!

spankmythighs · 11-02-11, 07:08 PM

The OVERs are looking good so far! Let's go 3-0 tonight!

AceKingHigh · 11-02-11, 07:20 PM

Hopefully! end of 1st with two games @ 3 goals.

I have Phili @ O5.5
NY @ O5

AceKingHigh · 11-02-11, 07:21 PM

NJ @ O5 Sorry :P

AceKingHigh · 11-02-11, 07:42 PM

Nj hit! 6goals!

joedell · 11-02-11, 08:38 PM

This is rediculous this better not end 3-1 final

AceKingHigh · 11-02-11, 08:48 PM

I Need one more goal, I have it @ O5.5 ...

AceKingHigh · 11-02-11, 09:17 PM

Phili ****** it up ... not for you @ O4.5 but damn, 3-0 in 6 minutes on the 1st and since then... SILENCE !

joedell · 11-02-11, 11:00 PM

wow great job dude keep posting please

matt1216 · 11-02-11, 11:31 PM

Good job Man! makes up for the NY/SAN JOSE night! I will take a look at yur post tommorow!

spankmythighs · 11-03-11, 12:18 AM

Great night! I watched the TOR game and then ended up going to play hockey and just got back. Looks like it worked out well. I am surprised though with the Phili game that it didn't go much higher. Oh well. 3-0 is always a gd night.

PHX at COL -185 UNDER 6.5

and UNDER 6 is -161

TOR at NJ -227 OVER 4.5

and OVER 5 is -137

PHI at BUF -345 OVER 4.5

and OVER 5 is -227

Wrestler31 · 11-03-11, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Great night! I watched the TOR game and then ended up going to play hockey and just got back. Looks like it worked out well. I am surprised though with the Phili game that it didn't go much higher. Oh well. 3-0 is always a gd night.

PHX at COL -185 UNDER 6.5

and UNDER 6 is -161

TOR at NJ -227 OVER 4.5

and OVER 5 is -137

PHI at BUF -345 OVER 4.5

and OVER 5 is -227

So did you parlay all 3 games into one bet tonight? Or did you play each one separately? If you took them separately thats a lot of juice to pay but it looks good so far. Whats your W-L and unit movement on this system so far for the 2011 season?

Cheers

psycho44 · 11-03-11, 03:10 AM

if you can get Edmonton @ LA for under 6.5 might want to make it your triple play. It will be a goaltending dual between Khabibulin and Quick.

spankmythighs · 11-03-11, 06:46 AM

Updated record for the year is 63-10 beginning Oct. 21st. Up +35 Units.

joedell · 11-03-11, 09:38 AM

what time do you think you will posting your plays?

sbcash · 11-03-11, 09:53 AM

to play devils advocate for a minute - do you guy really think these wagers are +EV with the juice they carry? im not saying you won't hit the vast majority of these - in fact you *should* hit the majority, but i'm not sure this is +EV in the long run.

sbcash · 11-03-11, 09:57 AM

also - <10 games is by no means a suitable sample size to rely on home/away splits.

pickemtowinem · 11-03-11, 12:24 PM

Using your method for the first time last night and the parlay cashed. It was small, like 124 to 100 but hey, it worked. Will try again. Thank u for posting this. I'm not sold on your tie chase yet.....but this one has good parlay values, and by doing so (parlaying em) it eats up some of that juice you risk by buying the points. I thinks you are on to something here.

Continued success man!!!! Keep getting em!!!!!!