ElCapitan's 2011-2012 NHL Thread

[ElCapitan]

11/21 Plays

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (A) ML -110 (1.1 to win 1) (5Dimes)
V2 Calgary Flames(A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.1 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) ML +130 (1 to win 1.3) (5Dimes)
V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[Win89]

As a side note for Calgary they're far from the worst road team but with the exception of their first game they face two legitimate teams with good home records. I think Edmonton should be okay.

[Andy3568]

I wrote him also and asked if I could bet the rest of the season with confidence now that we got that 1 loss out of the way.

He's probably wondering how so many people he's trying to sell his system to know there was just a loss.

[thelimit0310]

Labby update with the close of Toronto series

(+2.8u)

A/C: 2.2-2.2-2.2-2.2
...B: 2.2-2.2-2.2-2.2

Notes:With the close of Toronto I have chosen to change up my lines. Reducing cost but adding more to the unit for more of a recovery over time. I feel this is the best strategy for high juice lines. The labby proves a quick recovery and shows again just how powerful of a money management tool it really is. Now, with a loss out of the way, we can hope the rest of the season will be smooth. I expect no more than 1 to 2 more losses for V1 this season.

Heres to a smooth recovery, I will see you all on the 26th!

[hagball52]

He's probably wondering how so many people he's trying to sell his system to know there was just a loss.

Yeah really. I haven't heard a word from him since I sent him that last email. Even though he knows that we know he still sends out blanket sales pitches to all the unsubscribed people on his list.

[Kev the Brit]

snip> I expect no more than 1 to 2 more losses for V1 this season. <

Absolutely, everything should be OK as long as the last loss is not in the final 10 series.

Kev

[ElCapitan]

11/21 Results

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (A) ML -110 (1.1 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Calgary Flames(A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.1 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) ML +130 (1 to win 1.3) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 14(A)-6(B)-3(C) (-4.97) SERIES: 11-2 (1 pending)
V1 PL: 14(A)-5(B)-1(C) (-0.16) SERIES: 13-1

V2 ML: 19(A)-6(B)-2(C) (+16.93) SERIES: 17-0 (2 pending)
V2 PL: 19(A)-3(B)-2(C) (+13.60) SERIES: 17-0 (2 pending)

[ElCapitan]

11/22 Plays

V1 Toronto Maple Leafs (B) ML +147 (1.36 to win 2) (5Dimes)


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) ML +168 (1.19 to win 2) (5Dimes)
V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) PL -185 (6.11 to win 3.3) (5Dimes)

[oklahoma]

V1 Toronto Maple Leafs (B) ML +147 (1.36 to win 2) (5Dimes)

i guess ive never noticed til now, but on plus odd bets are you risking to win a desired unit or are you risking units to have a larger payoff? you risked 1 unit on the leafs A bet because they were plus odds, on the B bet shouldnt you now be risking 2 units rather than trying to win 2 units?

[ElCapitan]

The goal of the system is to win 1 unit each series. The way I look at it is, typically if the A bet wins you get a little bonus. If it gets to B or C you are betting to win 1 unit but minimizing your risk. Just my point of view.

[thelimit0310]

As Capitan said, it's always good to take advantage of the + juice. You should bet this way as it helps keep you up units by the end, remember the ML loses much more than the PL.

[UK_gixxer]

As Capitan said, it's always good to take advantage of the + juice. You should bet this way as it helps keep you up units by the end, remember the ML loses much more than the PL.

sorry for being a NeWb...but your saying it's a good idea to bet the +ML (underdog) because the -ML (favored) loses/is "upset" more often?

Thanks!

[allidoiswin89]

i guess ive never noticed til now, but on plus odd bets are you risking to win a desired unit or are you risking units to have a larger payoff? you risked 1 unit on the leafs A bet because they were plus odds, on the B bet shouldnt you now be risking 2 units rather than trying to win 2 units?

i pointed this out earlier and everyone ignored it but yes, u should be RISKING 2 units. Any chase system with a +lines is risking and any system with -lines is to win. This system has been substantially more profitable this season...not sure why he is betting that way/nor who told him or taught him to do that

[allidoiswin89]

The goal of the system is to win 1 unit each series. The way I look at it is, typically if the A bet wins you get a little bonus. If it gets to B or C you are betting to win 1 unit but minimizing your risk. Just my point of view.

this very conservative if you believe this system to work(i know the backtest so not calling you out). If u trust the system u should be risking 1 2 4 on +moneyline

[oklahoma]

yea ive been risking units on +money bets rather to win. just noticed today how he bet the leafs which threw me off. tonight for example, if the leafs pull it off, rather than winning 1 unit in this series i'll be winning just under 2 units.

[ElCapitan]

this very conservative if you believe this system to work(i know the backtest so not calling you out). If u trust the system u should be risking 1 2 4 on +moneyline

That's just it. There is no backtest. I started playing the ML just for an experiment two years ago with nothing more to go on than, "Hey, let's see if this works."

Feel free to play it how you like and let us know how you do at the end of the year!

[ElCapitan]

11/22 Results

V1 Toronto Maple Leafs (B) ML +147 (1.36 to win 2) (5Dimes) *WIN*


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) ML +168 (1.19 to win 2) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) PL -185 (6.11 to win 3.3) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 14(A)-7(B)-3(C) (-2.97) SERIES: 12-2
V1 PL: 14(A)-5(B)-1(C) (-0.16) SERIES: 13-1

V2 ML: 19(A)-7(B)-2(C) (+18.93) SERIES: 18-0 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 19(A)-4(B)-2(C) (+16.90) SERIES: 18-0 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

11/23 Plays

Big night for V2!


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (B) ML +165 (1.27 to win 2.1) (5Dimes)
V2 Calgary Flames (B) PL -175 (3.68 to win 2.1) (5Dimes)

V2 Nashville Predators (A) ML +105 (1 to win 1.05) (5Dimes)
V2 Nashville Predators(A) PL -290 (2.9 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Vancouver Canucks (A) ML -127 (1.27 to win 1) (5Dimes)
V2 Vancouver Canucks(A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.27 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Winnipeg Jets (A) ML +185 (1 to win 1.85) (5Dimes)
V2 Winnipeg Jets(A) PL -155 (1.55 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[thelimit0310]

V2 killing it this year! Though they always seem to have a shitload of C bets and are usually a loss away from being the red by season end, I think i'm still going to stay away.

[UK_gixxer]

want to play v2 so baaad....must use money management and resist...I hate being a compulsive gambler

[rr1958]

in this system, are you betting both the ML & PL?

[knugen]

in this system, are you betting both the ML & PL?

Its unbelieveeble, i think this question comes up in here every daaay!

[DollarBill10]

V2 killing it this year! Though they always seem to have a shitload of C bets and are usually a loss away from being the red by season end, I think i'm still going to stay away.

Good thing you didn't start today. :-) I feel the same way. I actually bet V2 starting with like the 2nd or 3rd series and lost and then I stopped.

[ElCapitan]

11/23 Results

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (B) ML +165 (1.27 to win 2.1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Calgary Flames (B) PL -175 (3.68 to win 2.1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Nashville Predators (A) ML +105 (1 to win 1.05) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Nashville Predators(A) PL -290 (2.9 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Vancouver Canucks (A) ML -127 (1.27 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Vancouver Canucks(A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.27 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Winnipeg Jets (A) ML +185 (1 to win 1.85) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Winnipeg Jets(A) PL -155 (1.55 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 14(A)-7(B)-3(C) (-2.97) SERIES: 12-2
V1 PL: 14(A)-5(B)-1(C) (-0.16) SERIES: 13-1

V2 ML: 22(A)-8(B)-2(C) (+16.66) SERIES: 19-0 (3 pending)
V2 PL: 22(A)-5(B)-2(C) (+16.22) SERIES: 21-0 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

11/25 Plays

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (C) ML +150 (2.25 to win 3.37) (5Dimes)
V2 Calgary Flames (C) PL -210 (12.14 to win 5.78) (5Dimes)

V2 Winnipeg Jets (B) ML +120 (1.67 to win 2) (5Dimes)

[Win89]

Like I figured Calgary was a risky play. For the V1 plays today New York Islanders should be excluded given their last in their division and hold the worst road record. Philadelphia and Florida series look good. Good luck guys!

[oklahoma]

Like I figured Calgary was a risky play. For the V1 plays today New York Islanders should be excluded given their last in their division and hold the worst road record. Philadelphia and Florida series look good. Good luck guys!

though i doubt the isles will be the cause of 2 series losses, im still gonna pass, or at least play them should they go to a C bet.

[thelimit0310]

though i doubt the isles will be the cause of 2 series losses, im still gonna pass, or at least play them should they go to a C bet.

The Islanders won on their B bet for the actual V1 system, also I believe its a system rule not to play the worst road team anyway.

[thelimit0310]

Even if it isn't a rule, looks like we can't play them anyway as they are in their pregame now. ElCapitan where are you?!

[Kev the Brit]

I'm fading the Islanders on a ML 3 game chase

[thelimit0310]

Well I went ahead and placed my bets, but those of you waiting for the official post missed out on 2 of today's 3 games already. The last official bet of the day for you guys is Florida Panthers +1.5.

[UK_gixxer]

looks like the islanders ML & PL cashed. Flyers still playing. Everyone don't forget to make the FLA bet, ML & PL for V1.

Not sure where captain is, but he's provided us with all the picks through December on page 7 of this thread...so make them, system hasn't changed.

[ElCapitan]

FLA NYI and PHI all V1 plays today. Very busy right now.

[UK_gixxer]

is all good captain, we appreciate everything you've done thus far!

[ElCapitan]

11/25 Results

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (C) ML +150 (2.25 to win 3.37) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Calgary Flames (C) PL -210 (12.14 to win 5.78) (5Dimes)*LOSS*

V2 Winnipeg Jets (B) ML +120 (1.67 to win 2) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 14(A)-7(B)-3(C) (-2.97) SERIES: 12-2
V1 PL: 14(A)-5(B)-1(C) (-0.16) SERIES: 13-1

V2 ML: 22(A)-9(B)-3(C) (+16.41) SERIES: 20-1 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 22(A)-5(B)-3(C) (+4.08) SERIES: 21-1