NHL 2 'dog system. (begins 1/7/11)

[MJG24]

System 1 seems real hard to hit when odds are above 2.20.

[Axis]

I've back tested it to last season....April was profitable, March was a -1unit at flat betting, and Feb. hasnt' looked promising

Hopefully it just continues the way it's been going. but...a few months isn't enough to go by...

[oklahoma]

So, what I propose is that if the SYSTEM ONE play for any given night is ON THE ROAD against a team above them in the standings, we skip the game for that night.
You cannot argue with the backup goalie numbers.

ok from dec 26 and on when a team is on the road playing a team higher on the standings theyve gone 3-5. with 3 of those losses oddly coming from the last 3 days.
from dec 26 and on when the highest standing dogs play teams below them(away or home) theyve gone 16-3(plus 2 additional losses when there were only 4 games on the card that day/we dont play those days anyway).
when the highest standing dogs play teams above them theyve gone 4-7.
anyone is welcome to backtest the road dogs playing teams above them at home from dec 23rd and back.
from dec 26 to now we'd be hitting at 67%

[Yungmef]

g's up ho'z down

[blaucoin]

ok from dec 26 and on when a team is on the road playing a team higher on the standings theyve gone 3-5. with 3 of those losses oddly coming from the last 3 days. from dec 26 and on when the highest standing dogs play teams below them(away or home) theyve gone 16-3(plus 2 additional losses when there were only 4 games on the card that day/we dont play those days anyway). when the highest standing dogs play teams above them theyve gone 4-4. so go with your gut feeling on those days. anyone is welcome to backtest the road dogs playing teams above them at home from dec 23rd and back. from dec 26 to now we'd be hitting at 74%

the 4-4 record...thats with the 3 losses we just had correct? So as of now its still profitable...

[oklahoma]

the 4-4 record...thats with the 3 losses we just had correct? So as of now its still profitable...

wow my bad man i started from jan 23rd and worked back and failed to make a note of adding in the last 3 losses.
so...when highest dogs are playing teams above them theyve gone 4-7.

ill edit my post above and hopefully i didnt throw to many people off.

[blaucoin]

wow my bad man i started from jan 23rd and worked back and failed to make a note of adding in the last 3 losses. so...when highest dogs are playing teams above them theyve gone 4-7. ill edit my post above and hopefully i didnt throw to many people off.

So basically we should only play S1 only when they are higher in the standings against there opponent

[bobturner]

Let's have some winners today

[rthoughton]

Let's have some winners today

good luck with that...
I have an idea, choose someone else to snag your 6 points.

I like that rule we have made here.
If the S1 play/team is up against a team above them in the standings, we have no S1 play.
The last 3 would have been no plays.

[rthoughton]

and, oh ya.. SYSTEM 3 is dead.
Im finished with looking that up.

[brko]

let me repeat what are conditions for S1 play:

1) biggest dog of the day
2) opponent's position in overall table has to be under our candidate
3) no backup goaltender

huh, what have i forgot?

did anyone track this year how do dogs perform if the opponent is lower in averall standings? maybe we're excluding too many games by looking for dog with highest odds of the day - too many restrictive parameters? and one more question: do you guys think we could use for baseball too?

[blaucoin]

let me repeat what are conditions for S1 play: 1) biggest dog of the day 2) opponent's position in overall table has to be under our candidate 3) no backup goaltender huh, what have i forgot? did anyone track this year how do dogs perform if the opponent is lower in averall standings? maybe we're excluding too many games by looking for dog with highest odds of the day - too many restrictive parameters? and one more question: do you guys think we could use for baseball too?

I dont agree with Number 3 on your list, but other than that

[oklahoma]

yea im not to sure how big a factor the backup goalie is since on the previous page Easywinner said he only back tested the games that were losses. if someone could go through the last few weeks or even months and see when backup goalies lost and won us games would be helpful...but obviously very tedious.

[brko]

what about my other questions?

[Optional]

good luck with that...
I have an idea, choose someone else to snag your 6 points.

I like that rule we have made here.
If the S1 play/team is up against a team above them in the standings, we have no S1 play.
The last 3 would have been no plays.

How would it have performed if instead of no-play, you moved to the next highest ranked dog of the day for the last 3?

[Axis]

From back testing, some months, the only wins were betting teams higher than +140...in fact, last april, if you take those games away there is no winnings that month, and you would have lost.

This stretch we've hit appears to be the best stretch ever...hopefully it rides out

[BigWilly]

Let me ride that donkey, donkey
Let me ride that donkey, donkey

[blaucoin]

From back testing, some months, the only wins were betting teams higher than +140...in fact, last april, if you take those games away there is no winnings that month, and you would have lost. This stretch we've hit appears to be the best stretch ever...hopefully it rides out

Are you saying this system is doomed? lol

[Axis]

I'm saying research is showing that it's never had a previous run as good as this (that I've come across)...April of last year has been the bet month i've come across at 10-9...with 2 +170 teams winning in that stretch.

Though, easy winner found that this past Nov./Dec. was good so...there is a chance that the runs are there somewhere...

Labby betting may be the way to go.

[rthoughton]

let me repeat what are conditions for S1 play:

1) biggest dog of the day
2) opponent's position in overall table has to be under our candidate
3) no backup goaltender

huh, what have i forgot?

did anyone track this year how do dogs perform if the opponent is lower in averall standings? maybe we're excluding too many games by looking for dog with highest odds of the day - too many restrictive parameters? and one more question: do you guys think we could use for baseball too?

Number one has nothing to do with the system.
Number two is something we discussed, and something I like, as the last three losses were road games for our S1 play (@Van @Phi @Van, in that order).
Number three was a suggestion based on the total games we had played so far.

[rthoughton]

and i dont like going down to the next team in the standings if the real S1 play doesn't fit the criteria, bc we will be losing quality.

[bobturner]

good luck, i like this stuff

[medjimurec]

i'm new to hockey handicapping, wagering and stuff. i was pushing hard to find some scalable and searchable database on NHL, could not find anything i had in mind. so, i decided to build my own! i (we) won't benefit of it this season, maybe next one. and one big factor that will slow down my work - i have never done it before. so i have

question: What stats are deciding? i mean what data can i exclude?

or will i take everything i can get? and it would be time consuming or "more time" consuming job depending on the structures of different hockey stats web sites. so if i'm not asking too much, i would like to know and check the places where you go for your stats.

[rthoughton]

i'm new to hockey handicapping, wagering and stuff. i was pushing hard to find some scalable and searchable database on NHL, could not find anything i had in mind. so, i decided to build my own! i (we) won't benefit of it this season, maybe next one. and one big factor that will slow down my work - i have never done it before. so i have

question: What stats are deciding? i mean what data can i exclude?

or will i take everything i can get? and it would be time consuming or "more time" consuming job depending on the structures of different hockey stats web sites. so if i'm not asking too much, i would like to know and check the places where you go for your stats.

whaaa?

[rthoughton]

you guys about ready to get this back up?

SYSTEM 1 YTD: 12-7, +7.20u.
SYSTEM 2 YTD: 7-12, +0.65u.

[Axis]

Last Feb. was rough so hopefully with a few of the revisions we can continue to do well with S1. Big slate of games tomorrow too.

[bobturner]

Bol , I will be following you, lets make some money

[rthoughton]

Lines are up on SBR for the games tomorrow.
We can get Philly +105 @ TB. (Vancouver -110 @Dal is in the running)

in the beginning of this thread, I played them both. Both dogs, both at 71 pts. both S1. we'll wait and see what happens to the Vancouver line.

[MrMiami]

you guys about ready to get this back up?

SYSTEM 1 YTD: 12-7, +7.20u.
SYSTEM 2 YTD: 7-12, +0.65u.

Did you throw in the towel on system 3?

[brko]

^^
look at the post #220

[MrMiami]

Thanks, did not see that post. I want to keep track of system 3 on my own because I was running a labby and want to finish my line. System 3 was only down 3.6 units. Can you remind me of the criteria for system 3? Largest dog at home with most points?

I appreciate the help and will periodically let you guys know how that system is tracking.

[rthoughton]

yes, no mas 3.
Still sitting at +$ on the flyers, and I see the Canucks have moved a touch closer to +ev.
Im gonna wait a bit before I book them, see how it goes.
Im excited, tho, to get this back rolling and I freaking LOVE the plays for tonight.

[blaucoin]

I think I might go ahead and take the flyers at +105 lol...

[Axis]

I always just take the dog right at opening line...since Vancouver wasn't a dog, I went with Philly today.

If they are both dogs with the same pt total, I'll go with the team who has less wins because they are the true dog...or go with the team that is playing the worse team...

[MrMiami]

yes, no mas 3.
Still sitting at +$ on the flyers, and I see the Canucks have moved a touch closer to +ev.
Im gonna wait a bit before I book them, see how it goes.
Im excited, tho, to get this back rolling and I freaking LOVE the plays for tonight.

I think Ottawa would be the system 3 play tonight. They are playing the devils who are favored with the least ammount of points for all the favs today. Can you just confirm that I am using the right criteria for this. I won't clutter up the forum with system 3, just want to make sure I use the right criteria going forward on my own. Thanks in advance.