DG's 2010-2011 NHL Thread

eric14tsui · 11-09-10, 10:55 PM

the ducks got a break on high-sticking......no goal for sj, otherwise 2-0

sapidoc · 11-09-10, 11:05 PM

DennisGreen · 11-09-10, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

LOL pretty much. 2 shots for the Ducks and a goal. Pretty sick.

sapidoc · 11-09-10, 11:26 PM

Seriously this is what we wanted by the Flames. Its like these two late games went reverse for us.

DennisGreen · 11-09-10, 11:28 PM

Yeah man 1st period plays continue to fcuk me over. 0-3 on them today. Hard to just quit them since I did so well on them last year.

sapidoc · 11-09-10, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

Yeah man 1st period plays continue to fcuk me over. 0-3 on them today. Hard to just quit them since I did so well on them last year.

If you have an edge, stick with it. I don't really know hockey enough to figure out these 1st period bets, but I do like when you pick up on some dogs for value, seems those are doing well this year for you. Keep it up DG.

DennisGreen · 11-10-10, 12:28 AM

2-4 -$101 on the day

BlueJays · 11-10-10, 08:01 AM

First period: Over 5 - Under 2 yesterday, so should have been a good day for OVERs Dennis. You just picked the wrong ones!

Jempa · 11-10-10, 09:51 AM

Today I smell the unders will reign.

Durden · 11-10-10, 11:00 AM

NJ thx for a couple winnahs, i gave you a few pts

VegasPlayer · 11-10-10, 12:32 PM

Some pretty significant streaks building right now - Fade or Follow?

OTT, LAK, ANA W 4
WAS W 5
STL W 7
NAS L 5
TOR L6
NYI L7

fletch49 · 11-10-10, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by VegasPlayer

Some pretty significant streaks building right now - Fade or Follow?

OTT, LAK, ANA W 4
WAS W 5
STL W 7
NAS L 5
TOR L6
NYI L7

I got St Louis continuing their win streak...and...Ducks and islanders continue theirs against each other tonight.

gohabsgo · 11-10-10, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by fletch49

I got St Louis continuing their win streak...and...Ducks and islanders continue theirs against each other tonight.

I've got St-Louis has well, is halack playing?

Maxi_EV · 11-10-10, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by VegasPlayer

Some pretty significant streaks building right now - Fade or Follow?

OTT, LAK, ANA W 4
WAS W 5
STL W 7
NAS L 5
TOR L6
NYI L7

Time to chase against winning teams. I'm on the road now, but I collected great NHL stats in the past seasons because I wanted to create a chase system using those kind of streaks...I have all this at home, I'll try to post later, but I can already tell you that It was profitable to jump in after a W4 streak and to chase for 3 games against the team in a standard Martingale betting structure.

Maxi_EV · 11-10-10, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

Time to chase against winning teams. I'm on the road now, but I collected great NHL stats in the past seasons because I wanted to create a chase system using those kind of streaks...I have all this at home, I'll try to post later, but I can already tell you that It was profitable to jump in after a W4 streak and to chase for 3 games against the team in a standard Martingale betting structure.

So I would definetely start a 3game chase AGAINST WAS and STLOUIS

gohabsgo · 11-10-10, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

So I would definetely start a 3game chase AGAINST WAS and STLOUIS

chasing against Washington is not a good idea IMO

mrginandtonic · 11-10-10, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

So I would definetely start a 3game chase AGAINST WAS and STLOUIS

What about losing streaks??

Maxi_EV · 11-10-10, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

What about losing streaks??

I only studied chasing against winning streaks.
I'll be at home in half an hour...I'll post some stats.

Maxi_EV · 11-10-10, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by gohabsgo

chasing against Washington is not a good idea IMO

What you are saying here, basicalky, is that you are pretty confident they'll reach W8.

Maxi_EV · 11-10-10, 05:59 PM

Here it is:

I backtracked down to 2005.

- Martingale 3 steps after a team WON3:
a) bet against the team
b) the team has to be favorite in 2 of its 3 next games so you will mostly bet on dogs

+EV = 2.78% (you bet on a dog 2 of the 3 games)
+EV = 25% (you bet on a dog all 3 games)
THIS SYSTEM WINS 87.6% OF THE TIME

-Martingale 4 steps after a team won 3:
a) bet against the team
b) the team has to be favorite at least 2 times in the next 4 games so you will be betting on dogs at least 2 times

+EV = 4.64% (you bet on a dog 2 of the 4 games)
+EV = 19.98% ( you bet on a dog 3 of the 4 games)
+EV = 48.71% (you bet on dogs in all 4 games)
THIS SYSTEM WINS 94.04% OF THE TIME

lolguy999 · 11-10-10, 06:07 PM

My 2 fav home teams right now: DUCKS and the

HABS

. Since ducks are playing home against the struggling islanders, i say POD! Take the ducks!
NYI is no good on road games and ducks have crushed team after team when they're fav. Take them while they're still hot

lolguy999 · 11-10-10, 06:08 PM

Since ducks was an unstable team last year and do not have too many prospects their line is reasonably ok for the time being... but as we can see it's already starting to rise

FlaxMartin · 11-10-10, 06:10 PM

When will your plays be up dude?

DennisGreen · 11-10-10, 06:11 PM

Official Wednesday Plays

STL (-109) Pinnacle $109 to win $100

FLA -0.5 (+112) Pinnacle $100 to win $112

BUF/NJ Over 5 (-130) bwin $260 to win $200 (P.O.D.)

That's it for today. Not a whole lot I really like.

mister bee · 11-10-10, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

Here it is:

I backtracked down to 2005.

- Martingale 3 steps after a team WON3:
a) bet against the team
b) the team has to be favorite in 2 of its 3 next games so you will mostly bet on dogs

+EV = 2.78% (you bet on a dog 2 of the 3 games)
+EV = 25% (you bet on a dog all 3 games)
THIS SYSTEM WINS 87.6% OF THE TIME

-Martingale 4 steps after a team won 3:
a) bet against the team
b) the team has to be favorite at least 2 times in the next 4 games so you will be betting on dogs at least 2 times

+EV = 4.64% (you bet on a dog 2 of the 4 games)
+EV = 19.98% ( you bet on a dog 3 of the 4 games)
+EV = 48.71% (you bet on dogs in all 4 games)
THIS SYSTEM WINS 94.04% OF THE TIME

So according to this chase system, you would be down a lot of units cuz Was and Stl are hot. What's the plan after the 3-4 game chase has failed?

ScamArtist · 11-10-10, 06:12 PM

Tough looking board tonight

lolguy999 · 11-10-10, 06:12 PM

Fcuk i cant seem to find if halak is playing tonight or not... if so take the blues who's on a hotter roll than any other team

ScamArtist · 11-10-10, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by lolguy999

Fcuk i cant seem to find if halak is playing tonight or not... if so take the blues who's on a hotter roll than any other team

Halak's playing

FlaxMartin · 11-10-10, 06:16 PM

Taling as always

Maxi_EV · 11-10-10, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by mister bee

So according to this chase system, you would be down a lot of units cuz Was and Stl are hot. What's the plan after the 3-4 game chase has failed?

This seems scientificaly rigorous: "they are hot".

Nothing happens when you fail. You start over with another series. The results are LONG TERM EXPECTATION calculations.

This is something mathematic based on 5 NHL seasons. I am myself a HATER of CHASING SYSTEMS...I don't like the VARIANCE that comes with it. I put those number together cause I was curious if there was something to do with those streaks.

Cicima6709 · 11-10-10, 06:24 PM

Over 5 is at -160 for me. What do you think of over 5.5 at +125?

inflames · 11-10-10, 06:24 PM

whoa, over 5 odds sucked at pinnacle! thanks for the plays tho and BOL

BetterBizness · 11-10-10, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

[U][
BUF/NJ Over 5 (-130) bwin $260 to win $200 (P.O.D.)[/B][/COLOR]

That's it for today. Not a whole lot I really like.

It's juiced to -152 now on Pinny... they don't want to give up the hook..

DennisGreen · 11-10-10, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by Cicima6709

Over 5 is at -160 for me. What do you think of over 5.5 at +125?

Originally posted by inflames

whoa, over 5 odds sucked at pinnacle! thanks for the plays tho and BOL

Yeah that's a lot of juice to play up to you guys. Over 5.5 has good value, I just like the idea of a push with the 5 total as you just need 2 goals a piece and you're guaranteed a push.

BetterBizness · 11-10-10, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

Yeah that's a lot of juice to play up to you guys. Over 5.5 has good value, I just like the idea of a push with the 5 total as you just need 2 goals a piece and you're guaranteed a push.

K I'll bite.. I agree, I think over 5.5 as well, but I want the cushion...