Hockey 2014/15

[ZdenoK]

San Jose Sharks - Minnesota Wild

Both teams are playing according to a warm and cold principle so they have their ups and downs. Wild was about to lose against Islanders but they managed an epic comeback (close to the one they let happen against Rangers). The costs were high as they lost Ballard and Scandella, at least for tonight. Sharks lost vs Oilers but managed to bounce back in a back-to-back repeat. They are also weakened by injuries (M.Brown, M.Vlasic, T.Kennedy, M.Nieto, R.Torres). So we have two what it seems to be bubble teams going for the second straight victory to start a possible winning streak. Actually value lies in Wild here but I think the home advantage is huge and Sharks will win. I also think Sharks will need to score at least 3 goals tonight to beat Wild which is given the mutual history quite likely.

Pick 1: San Jose Sharks ML @ 1.77 Pinnacle 3/10
Pick 2: Sharks over 2.5 @ 1.806 Pinnacle 3/10


Boston Bruins - Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago looks very good at this point, they are playing good hockey, offense is scoring 3 goals per game, they have solid defense with good goaltending, good penalty killing and let's call it a sufficient powerplay. Tonight they are chasing 8th straight victory and 6th straight road win. Boston will play their first home match in December. They have lost 5 out of last 7 matches but they are slowly picking up as they scored 9 goals in last 2 matches. Bruins are tough to play on home ice, especially for West coast teams to get a nice welcome to rough East side hockey. Seeing Bruins on plus side I'll take them to bounce back on a winning streak at home ice. Chicago is bound to lose soon anyway, right?

Pick: Boston Bruins ML @ 2.10 Pinnacle 5/10

really enjoy your write ups. Thanks

Thanks!

[TheJettylife]

was with you on Bruins ugh can't believe they couldn't put another one away to at least get to OT. Loved them as home dogs though take that bet anyday...welp onto San Jose

[YoungGambler]

Z, I never thanked you for the Euro picks.

[ZdenoK]

HDD Olimpija Ljubljana - Fehervar AV19

Winter classic match on open ice. Lots of preparations for that and some troubles with ice which is melting due to warm temperature outside. Olimpija already practiced on this ice and knows how it feels. Alba Volan played a match tonight and they've beaten Bolzano but Alba Volan at home is entire different team. Opponents have hard time playing in Hungarian fortress while Alba Volan on the road is not so good. So they will play their second match in less than 24 hours plus the long 4-5 hours drive to Ljubljana where they will battle hyped Olimpija and crowd since this is "winter classic". Olimpija was the worst team at the beginning but recently they have picked up a bit after the break for national team. They are working as a unit in defense and give support to brilliant goalie Chiodo while they also score some goals in the offense. They acquired two new players which added nice depth in defense. Given that Olimpija is underdog here I think this play is worth a stronger bet since AV is playing their second match on the road in less than 24 hours, Olimpija has raised their form and this is a special type of match, "emotional winter classic".

Pick: HDD Olimpija Ljubljana @ 2.15 Pinnacle 8/10

[ZdenoK]

HDD Olimpija Ljubljana - Fehervar AV19

Winter classic match on open ice. Lots of preparations for that and some troubles with ice which is melting due to warm temperature outside. Olimpija already practiced on this ice and knows how it feels. Alba Volan played a match tonight and they've beaten Bolzano but Alba Volan at home is entire different team. Opponents have hard time playing in Hungarian fortress while Alba Volan on the road is not so good. So they will play their second match in less than 24 hours plus the long 4-5 hours drive to Ljubljana where they will battle hyped Olimpija and crowd since this is "winter classic". Olimpija was the worst team at the beginning but recently they have picked up a bit after the break for national team. They are working as a unit in defense and give support to brilliant goalie Chiodo while they also score some goals in the offense. They acquired two new players which added nice depth in defense. Given that Olimpija is underdog here I think this play is worth a stronger bet since AV is playing their second match on the road in less than 24 hours, Olimpija has raised their form and this is a special type of match, "emotional winter classic".

Pick: HDD Olimpija Ljubljana @ 2.15 Pinnacle 8/10

The value is gone because match will be played indoor in Olimpija's home arena due to bad weather!

[ZdenoK]

Z, I never thanked you for the Euro picks.

You're welcome, hope you were tailing when I was winning and fading me lately

[ZdenoK]

Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning

Teams with different momentum. TB has dropped a bit recently and is about to slowly drift downwards on East coast standings. Yesterday they lost in Pittsburgh but more worrying than the loss itself was injury of their main guy goalie Bishop. Nabokov took over after 1st period and he is expected to start tonight as well. Definitely not a good spot for him as Philly is hot at the moment, they grabed points on last 5 matches and they are riding home winning streak where they won last 2 matches with goal ratio 9-2. Other players than Giroux and Voracek started to score and they seem to got their defense together. It looks like this positive change came at a good time as they really need to gather points if they want to see the playoffs. Statistically Bolts are not a good matchup for Flyers as they have won 6 out of last 7 matches in previous 2 seasons but I think the tables are turned around this time and Flyers have good chance to win tonight. They are in better form, playing the best hockey of the season (or so it seems), home ice advantage, Bolts are most likely without Bishop and playing back-to-back. I don't like backing up Flyers but given they are set as underdog, I can't pass.

Pick: Philadelphia Flyers ML @ 2.06 MarathonBet 6/10

[TheJettylife]

It will turn around keep at it. Like your picks

[ZdenoK]

Montreal Canadiens - Anaheim Ducks

This should be a pretty equal matchup as we have Montreal which is very solid in their Bell Centre and Anaheim which has won 11 matches on the road so far. Habs are riding a winning streak of 3 home matches and Ducks will try to bounce back after the huge loss they allowed in Toronto. Goaltending battle will be shared between Price and Andersen so this looks like a good duel. While Ducks have a bit more depth in the lineup they are still plagued with injuries so they will still have to do without Perry and Beauchemin, plus Palmieri. Prior to the match Canadiens will pay the tribute to Saku Koivu (long time Habs captain and later he retired with Ducks) so emotional and charged atmosphere is expected. Statistically Anaheim is a bit better team at the moment but last year Habs have won both mutual matches. Given the emotional night for Canadiens this looks like a good spot for Anaheim to lose another one on the roadtrip through Canada.

Pick: Montreal Canadiens ML @ 1.862 Pinnacle 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Los Angeles Kings - St. Louis Blues

Rematch of the Tuesday's match where Kings let their lead slip away in final 10 minutes and eventually ended up losing badly. Kings have lost 5 out of last 6 matches and they could really use a victory. They had problems with inefficiency and discipline but they are aware of the importance to win this match. Quick is likely to start in net but I wouldn't mind Jones either as either of them should do better than oldtimer Brodeur. Blues are currently a better team with fearful offense, Tarasenko is on fire but I don't expect him to repeat the hattrick performance vs Kings back-to-back and they will have to do without Jaden Schwartz. T.J. Sochi will be back in the lineup after missing a game because of personal family reasons. One can hardly bet against Blues but they haven't won in LA in 10 years and Kings need this one much more so expect them to come out stronger and play the full 60 min to secure the victory.

Pick: Los Angeles Kings ML @ 1.729 Pinnacle 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Live: Rangers in shootout @ 1.81 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Live: Rangers in shootout @ 1.81 MarathonBet 5/10

Lundqvist with 3 saves, nice. I'm 15-3 betting shootout live so far in the season so I'll be posting these plays from now on.

[ZdenoK]

Live: Avs in shootout @ 1.94 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Live: Stars in shootout @ 1.90 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Live: Oilers in shootout @ 4.30 MarathonBet 1/10

Buying out after Dallas will score.

[ZdenoK]

Bam I should only bet shootouts from now on. Was a bit unconfident watching Lindback so I put a unit on Oilers after Fiddler scored but in the end he gets the job done.

[ZdenoK]

Live: Penguins in shootout @ 1.80 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Dang was hoping #71 and #87 would get it done. Now Jokinen will win it.

[ZdenoK]

Tampa Bay Lightning - Pittsburgh Penguins

Penguins are one of the hottest teams in the league but they played in Florida tonight with limited roster due to mumps precautions so they are without Downie, Sutter and backup goalie Greiss. Malkin and Crosby are not scoring as they should lately so both forwards are huge missings, they remove alot of depth from the team. Downie is actually the most efficient player in the last 3 matches and he doesn't mind getting physical, Sutter wasn't so effective but his 2nd centreman and main penaltykiller position will leave Pens with a big gap. Plus they are also missing most of their defense due to injuries: Maatta, Ehrhoff, Martin, Adams and Bortuzzo. Since Fleury started vs Panthers, tomorrow almost certainly Zatkoff will get his 1st start of the season. Tampa Bay doesn't seem to be in a good form lately, they even lost a shootout vs Devils (LOL!) but they had a couple of days off now and they will regather back at home ice to host Penguins tomorrow. On paper both teams are respectful divisional leaders and quite evenly matched considering offense, defense and special units, Penguins have shown more consistentcy so far. Lightning have lost last 10 mutual matches with Pittsburgh so they don't match up well but tomorrow I think they are in good spot to break the tradition. They are rested, they have no big missings beside Bishop, their offense is due and I think they can score some on Zatkoff, they are better on home ice and they will play to avoid a 3rd straight loss in a row. Ben Bishop got injured in a loss vs Penguins ~a week ago so that's another motif for Bolts to step on it to beat banged up Penguins.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML @ 1.92 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Belarus Extraliga: HC Gomel - Dynamo Molodechno

Gomel is one of the top teams in the league and probably the best home team (15-1-0). Recently they got Solomonov back from KHL, he was one of the top players in previous seasons and they also added a solid goalie Brikun to their roster. Away team will be weakened because their KHL forward Pavlovich got injured and their main goalie Zozon got suspended so inexperienced young goalie Karnauhov will play tomorrow instead. Gomel has won all 3 mutual matches so far. Odds are not good but given the situation of both teams I think Gomel should win at home by at least a goal or two.

Pick: HC Gomel -1 @ 1.6 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Live: Hurricanes in shootout @ 2.10 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

"Hey, hey, what do you say? Chris Terry in a shootout!" lovin' it!

[ZdenoK]

December is not going as planed but still up a nice number overall. Hopefully January will be better again. Here are the up to date stats:

Updated stats:
Euro hockey: 21-15 +7.15 units
NHL + AHL: 39-30 +16.92 units
NHL Shootout (live): 4-1 +12.85 units
Player props: 4-1 +1.55 units
International: 2-0 +4.08 units
Overall: 70-47 +42.55 units

[ZdenoK]

Early play for IIHF WC U20. Finland has good goalies and decent offense but they lack depth in defense. They also have quite inexperienced team and lack of physical guys. USA team is on a higher level and should play Russia or Canada in the finals. Match is played in 2 days, odds will probably go down by then and I don't want to wait for other bookies to set their handicap lines.

Pick: USA @ 1.54 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Merry Christmas everyone, see you in a couple of days. If I'll find enough time, I might post some Spengler Cup picks until NHL returns. Cheers

[ZdenoK]

Russian VHL: Dizel-Kazzinc-Torpedo

Dizel will play with youth players due to financial problems.

Pick: Kazzinc-Torpedo ML @ 1.68 Pinnacle 6/10

[lilbpack1]

nice tip on it. hope it hits



$100 to win $70. I hope your tip is correct about the youth players.

Good day to us sir.

[lilbpack1]

penetrating hell PENZA up 1 nil 2 minutes into the game

[lilbpack1]

Jesus kryst everytime torpedo goes up 1 penza strike right back this one is definately going to make me sick if we lose

[lilbpack1]

good tip mate.... close tough game 5-4 winner. PENZA were undermaned by 5-8 men and still fought hard.

[ZdenoK]

Hurry up, Pinnacle screwed up lines for Pens-Caps live in 2nd intermission! Result is 1-0 for Caps. Do you think Pens will score 3 goals in last period?

Capitals +1.5 @ 2.740 Pinnacle 10/10

[ZdenoK]

Live: Sabres in shootout @ 2.66 MarathonBet 5/10

[ZdenoK]

Sabres win, Capitals up 3-0, couldn't ask for a better night

[ZdenoK]

Blargh...

Bet Information
Wager Cancelled - Sat Dec 27 18:50:12 PST 2014: The bet was offered with an incorrect line.

At least Sabres have won

[ZdenoK]

AHL: WBS Penguins - Norfolk Admirals

I don't follow much to AHL but given all the injury/mumps problems NHL Penguins are having they recalled many players from their "Baby Pens" team leaving it with a huge gap. Their AHL team will play 3rd match in 3 days tonight and they are coming in with 2 losses where they scored 0 goals. No wonder when they are missing like 6 or 7 most efficient players and first goalie Zatkoff. Admirals are last in Eastern Conference and they are missing some players as well since they belong to NHL Ducks but I don't understand these odds. They will only play 2nd match in 2 days and they have won both mutual matches with WBS in the season so far. Given all the missing players for Penguins I'll risk a unit to back up Admirals.

Pick: Norfolk Admirals @ 4.33 MarathonBet 1/10