Interesting looking system.....I have a question. If a team is say 1 game over .500 going into a 3 game road trip, and lose the first to drop their record to .500. Do we stick with them for bet B? Are we looking at the road teams record after 25 games to be over 500 prior to the roadtrip? Just want to clear this up, thanks!
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John's System
I guess you have heard this before, I'm new, but I have been following John's system for two seasons of NBA. last year was great, I suffered no loses, however i did suffer a loss in the wnba, which pretty well wiper out the winnings for the nba. The question is should I purchase the nhl system or use McBains version? If any one has advice or articles I should read please replyComment -
In my very basic (and unextensive) research from last season a dog has to be around +240 to get a +100 on the +1.5 PL. And a slight dog +100 will be approx -270 on the PL. Since you will be playing the road team you will be getting more dogs than favs. Not a chase for those who hate the juice but does look like a profitable one.
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Not a problem for me. Since NHL has triple the amount of games than MLB, so wagering half as much can still make more profit than MLB.
It is going to be a heck of a schedule coming up since I got NFL and NBA as well as NHL to worry about. Massive profit aheadLast edited by johncrud; 09-17-09, 10:36 PM.Comment -
"nhl has triple amount of games than mlb"
uh wutComment -
don't worry about it if you don't get it. I have been around with these systems for a while.Comment -
1.We will stick with them through the chase.
2. I am not clear on the actual amount of games or just a little into it when we all have a better idea of how they are playing (this would be a question for Cheme82
) He is an awesome dude and will probably be in here and answer this exactly for you anyways.
Sir Please read the entire thread as regul8er seems to have done (which is the post just before you) before asking questions such as this.
Now with that said, after reading the ENTIRE thread I know that you will easily find the answer to your question actually I can tell you the answer to your question was answered yesterday I believe, but you still need to read the ENTIRE thread so you are not ignored in future conversations.
I am not trying to be rude just helping. Read it, yes it will take a little depending on how fast you read I would think you could do it in less then an hour. If you do not have an hour to spare then you shouldn't even be here. By not reading the entire thread first you would be making it unfair to the ones that have put in the effort to read from beginning to end, then ask the questions IF they were unclear. it is these types of people that are then either A able to follow along and make fun enlightening comments or B contribute IF something begins to go wrong.
BOL and we hope that you follow along and read this entirely before asking a question such as " should I buy JM or follow McBain?" after all we all know
JM is a bastard, D!ck riding, scum sucking, tout!
wouldn't you try everything you can to not pay that healthy $247 tag?
Please read the entire thread give credit where it is due and then ask questions when you are done. We aren't going anywhere, and Hockey has a few days before it starts. Plenty of time to get caught up in here
p.s. for some this will seem like deja read
Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
McBain......I still feel a little bit uneasy about #4. I agree that I think before 25 games are played, using last years road records is very iffy, because we could be looking at a completely different team. Is there a way this can be cleaned up, because when I see the word "iffy" posted in the system rules it makes me cringe a bit. Thanks, love your work man.Comment -
I agree it is too iffy. I will not be using last year's road records.
When to start this wonderful system seems a tough question since we only ran our test right at the end of last season.
We could start:
1. right at the start of the NHL season Oct. 1
2. on each team's second road series (don't play first or last series for any team)
3. after the first month on Nov. 1
4. after 25 games
I personally will likely start on the second series for each team, play half what I would normally play until well into November and then go to full units.
I also will likely only eliminate the bottom 5 road teams once we get to 25 games. Cheme82 favors eliminating all teams with losing road records but I am going to push it a bit and get more plays and hopefully still avoid a loss.
John Crud: it is very rare that teams in NHL are moneline -110 or as I like to say 1.91. The great majority of games have a team at least a 1.5-1.7 favorite so the scenario you paint where a team is 1.91 moneline and you have to play huge units at +1.5 three straight games is extremely unlikely. What team is going to play three road games and be considered exactly even by the linesmakers to win the game against three different teams? You can see it is very far-fetched. Again, it is not NBA where the odds are fixed because you buy your points and pay basically the same juice every game.Comment -
Sorry guys this is all new to me. I shall read. first time I have been involved with a forum. I'll try and learn quick.Comment -
Question when does the "true" rpi scale start (also where can that be found?) that would seem to maybe be a good indicator as to when to start but my opinion is the second series of the team as I have already used the spreadsheet that was offered at the beginning of the thread ans eliminated the first series play of each team.Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
I believe that the RPI system really only applies if we are talking about the top 3 teams. The top 3 rpi teams are the ones that should be avoided when they are playing at home. I am not really into eliminating all the teams that have losing records on the road after 25 games. that is i feel no the best indicator of how bad a team is, also, you would lose a substantial amount of plays. however, i do agree with the 5 teams with the worst road records should be avoidedComment -
The problem with avoiding home teams is do you abandon the whole series just because your road team plays one of the top teams in one game on the road trip? They might play two lousy or mediocre teams as well.
I would say it is better to avoid bad ROAD teams because those are the teams we are betting on each game in the series than to try to avoid good home teams.
Sorry Betyuda, I won't be using any RPI filter myself.Comment -
I was suggesting that using the "true" RPI filter as a good time as to when to start.
I am sure there will be some sort of RPI filter at the first game however I also think that it would have some of last years stats as well as preseason factored in. Or it has only that weeks schedule factored in and I do think that is good indicator of how a team is able to perform.
so the definition of "true" RPI would be when it is this years games only factored into the RPI filter.
I hope this makes sense and again it was only a thought open to constructive criticism as this is a system in progress and we are trying to find a good starting point the rest seems to be fairly set inplace depending on the road team at .500 and the mor I think of it how opften does an ok road team beat a favorite home team? I do not know that is why I am asking.
I thinkn those are the only 2 questions at this time
1. when to start
2. only play the road teams with +.500 raod teams only ( i think I will use the 4 worst at the time of the game dependent on their road team records)
on a side note anyone know of a over/under system?Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
Interesting stuff guys. I'll be paying attention to your threads McBain once the season starts. Thanks! Also, thanks to Flagolfer for posting that spreadsheet.Comment -
John Morrison NHL System
Can someone post the NHL system? It would be greatly appreciated.Comment -
this shit is so awesomeComment -
Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
Thanks McBain for a very interesting system. I will be following this thread over the NHL season. Floridagolfer, thanks for the spreadsheet.
For those interested in using RPI's as a unit of measure of system strengths, ESPN has one. This link should take you there.
Good luck to all this hockey season & hopefully with some combined effort, we can all make $$$Comment -
good luck guys, hopefully a successfull NHL season this year. I am running 3 systems myself so I will be checking in here daily with you guys. The one in this thread should be very good and profitable for all!
egr99Comment -
As for the RPI stat, to back test previous seasons I am guessing it would be very difficult... One would have to create a spreadsheet and enter every game day-by-day for each season calculating "as of that day" with the "RPI" formula below:
The basic formula is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage. In figuring winning percentage, ties count as half a win and half a loss.
Is anyone interested in doing this? Maybe we can get a few guys and share the load.
egr99Comment -
This looks like a very interesting system, good luck with it.Comment -
on a side note, anyone have a good site to get archived opening lines for nhl moneyline/pucklines? I used to use vegasinsider but it seems they have taken down all NHL archived scores/lines... Covers only has closing lines, I am looking for opening numbers...
thanks,
egr99Comment -
Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
nevermind... thanks
egr99Comment -
no the link didnt work but i fixed it, had a couple extra periods in it.. you have no idea how gratefull i am buddy... you just turned one of my systems from a 115-1 record to a 116-0 record...lol... Gotta double check the rest but should be good... You're a class act ! thank you very much.
egr99Comment -
I'm not worthy!
Thanks guys, I read the thread and i SEE THE LIGHT. Also I have been reading threads from soccer and I can't seem to locate a system or should i say a great system for soccer, apparantly guerrilla isn't to good.At the risk of asking another dumb question can anyone steer me in the proper Direction.
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Let's at least keep this thread for NHL only please.
No soccer! I couldn't care less about it.
Hockey starts in about a week...but tread lightly in October everyone.Comment -
Awesome for readingI'm not worthy!
Thanks guys, I read the thread and i SEE THE LIGHT. Also I have been reading threads from soccer and I can't seem to locate a system or should i say a great system for soccer, apparantly guerrilla isn't to good.At the risk of asking another dumb question can anyone steer me in the proper Direction. the thread it I think you will agree that it helps more then just asking what the system is. Because now you understand where everyone else is on the subject.
Now the only thing is listen to Mcbain he created this thread and had a major hand in the system itself, as in, first to post about it and then I believe he and Cheme82 refined it into what it is at the moment.
SBR has a soccer section where I am sure the folks over there are more then happy to help you in your quest to find some help with soccer.
Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
mcbain, did you ever test for fading the team youre betting on immediately after they win?
i'd be willing to do the research if it hasnt been done, although all i really know how to do is go thru the covers.com history.
i'd be happy to put in the time if it helps.Comment -
No I haven't tested for that. The sum total of my 'research' you can find in Post #1.
If you are willing to put in the time, sounds interesting, by all means share the results here.Comment -
Wow do5000 I think this has pretty good potential.
The research shouldnt be too bad, a little bit tedious but, I have a feeling that you will start getting pretty excited by the results so.
We are and will be looking forward to it.
i am about to leave for work but, do5000 when i get home this evening I will see where you stand and then I can start helping from that point if you need it.
Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment
