possible NHL system

**ketut** · 08-06-09, 08:02 AM

Great info, Im on vacation with the family right now and I dont have all my numbers for nhl with me, but if I remember correctly, the last several years I thought the "A" bets had an extremely big win rate, smething like over 100 wins were just on the "A" bets , if thats correct I think we should capatilize on these "A" bets and focus our filtering more on the B and C bets, just my opinion, when I get home after vacation I'll start doing my research for nhl. FloridaGolfer thanks for the 09/10 schedule, Im sure if we all work on this years nhl as a whole that we'll come up with something that will make us some money. glta

**mcbain** · 08-06-09, 10:22 AM

Ketut: as you can find in my original post in this thread, the unfiltered numbers for last NHL season were:
76 A wins
43 B wins
17 C wins

To address a few other things in the thread:
This system is for betting road teams, take your home team systems somewhere else!

Do not jump back and forth between road and home -- if you do that you are just capping the games not following a system.

I think there is no doubt we have something here and there is no doubt JM will steal it and try to sell it for at least $125 if he hasn't already.

Using these filters should work for 09-10:
1. don't play first series of season or last for any team
2. don't play second series of 3 on any road trip
3. play +1.5 whenever available
4. eliminate teams with losing road records once at least 25 games have been played. (At start of year, could use road records from last season but that is iffy).

**ketut** · 08-06-09, 03:56 PM

Thanks for your numbers, maybe instead of hollowing about shit that has been out for sometime now, you should chill out, and pay attention, Morrsion is a Scumbag and lies his ass off, Did you have any of his systems, well I do, But we are here to HELP one another not play baby shit, so with that said I dont want to burst anyones bubble but as far as Morrison, he has 2 NHL systems,( I've had them for 2 years now- they could have been out for a long time before that- one for the away games and one for the Home teams, Home games do better than(win/Loss) the away teams. The home games go for a 4 game chase, not 3 like the away bets. Home games you play if they are at least 40% winning average. So YES Morrison has these system already and people have bought into them a couple of years ago such as myself. I dont know why he dont advertise them anymore.
The only difference I see in the postings for the away games are that Morrison wants you to break up the 6 game chases into 2 seperate 3 game chases. Someone said its better NOT to do that because the 2nd half of this 6 game chases looses money, some more good info. Oh when I get home and get some time I'll recheck the numbers because I already found someone else posting last 2 year records for nhl, this is what they got:
07-08
104 A wins 61%
40 B wins 85%
18 C wins 95%
8 Losses
08-09
104 A wins 63%
45 B wins 90%
14 C wins 98%
3 losses

**G's pks** · 08-06-09, 04:04 PM

I agree this is getting to confusing! If there are two successful systems here guys lets call one home chase and one road chase.... Just so we are not criss crossing.... Sounds like you guys have something here.... When this gets going I think I am in!

How about one bolded set of rules/filters to follow be posted thanks guys... G.

**jjgold** · 08-06-09, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by mcbain

Ketut: as you can find in my original post in this thread, the unfiltered numbers for last NHL season were:
76 A wins
43 B wins
17 C wins

To address a few other things in the thread:
This system is for betting road teams, take your home team systems somewhere else!

Do not jump back and forth between road and home -- if you do that you are just capping the games not following a system.

I think there is no doubt we have something here and there is no doubt JM will steal it and try to sell it for at least $125 if he hasn't already.

Using these filters should work for 09-10:
1. don't play first series of season or last for any team
2. don't play second series of 3 on any road trip
3. play +1.5 whenever available
4. eliminate teams with losing road records once at least 25 games have been played. (At start of year, could use road records from last season but that is iffy).

McBain excellent work, you need to have a thread with any system plays this year and see how it goes.

**mcbain** · 08-06-09, 05:50 PM

I will do that JJ. Cheme82 and I were posting the NHL system plays at the end of last season but I'm not sure where that thread went to.

**kmarinouofm** · 08-12-09, 01:39 PM

mcbain and floridagolfer thanks a lot for getting this thread started.. golfer thanks for the spreadsheet... adding it to my folder.. it's my first spreadsheet for NHL..

**Blargh** · 08-12-09, 02:14 PM

Keep the idea coming guys.
I'm tailed on three chase systems in MLB and the three went 55-0 in the past month. Looking for a good NHL system. I find that when I bet systems I do less capping of my own. And less is more, as in profit as my capping picks turn out much better. Definetly intrested in finding a chase system for the NHL. The +1.5 chalk scares me though. I have seen the W-L records but does anyone have a unit w/l record?

big thanks for FloridaGolfer for the spreadsheet.

**Blargh** · 08-12-09, 06:21 PM

Did a quick check on the only listed filtered loss from the system from the first post in this thread.
The Hurricanes lost three straight on Jan 8th to Jan 13th which would have been a filtered loss.
The puck line odds for the first two games were -260 and -160. They were listed as either favs or even on the third game at Ottawa. I had a hard enough time finidng the old puckline odds that I didn't bother even trying to find the alternative puckline odds. But since it was almost even (-115ml odds) I'll use a slightly lower +1.5 puckline odds given to Ottawa, -270. I know it is not exact but it's the best I can do with the info I can find.
So the three game chase loss would total approx a 34.6 unit loss.
With a 145-1 record last year, you would have been approx +110.4 units if chasing a unit as of March 19th last season.
I used VegasInsider for the odds.
Also if you did not filter out the bottom five road teams, the Ottawa 3 game chase loss would have resulted in a 23.2 unit loss. If you had chased four games, they won staright up in the 4th.

Also, the bottom five road teams for a 3 game chase.
Ottawa, 32 road pts, 4-1 (4-3), -19.2 units,
Colarado 31 road pts, 6-0 (6-2), +6 units
Tampa 31 road pts, 8-0 (8-5), +8 units
Phoenix 30 road pts, 7-0 (7-4), +7 units
Islanders 21 road pts, 4-0 (4-2), +4 units
Total 29-1 (29-16), +5.8 units.

So dropping off the bottom 5 road teams would equal 5.8 less units (based on the season ending road records).

**brandon m** · 08-13-09, 12:13 AM

What about playing it like the nba system and only playing 3 game road trips against the opposite conference?

**Blargh** · 08-16-09, 09:50 PM

I expanded it to only include four game home/road trips and to chase the entire road trip.
The chase for the road teams for ML is 76-2 and the PL is 78-0.
The individual game records in the chases were 76-71 for Ml and 78-29 for PL.
The Islanders and Wild each lost a four game road trip. There was one four game chase on the PL and it was part of an eight game road trip for the Senators. So the PL chase never went to the final game.
The chase for home teams was 78-2 on the ML and 80-0 on the PL.
The individual game records in the chases were 78-71 on the ML and 80-20 on the PL.
The Capitals and Canucks lost a four game and five game homestand respectively.
The PL chase only once went past 3 games and that was on the same Canucks 5 game homstand were it wasn't won until the final game of the homstand in a shootout game. The amount on the line for that 5th game would have been scary. The final two games were against the Coyotes and Jackets so the PL odds in each of those last two would have also jacked up the chase costs.
The PL have a perfect record for four game chases in 08-09 but a single loss could wipe out all the gains. The Canucks were dogs only once during the five game homestand and had a -220 +1.5 PL against the Sharks. They were favs all the other games and thus had higher than -220 odds on the PL. But even if we used -220 for all five games the amount you'd be betting on the 5th would be 144.2 units to chase one unit. A five game chase loss would be a little over 208 units. That only using -220 for each game. I am sure the actual damage would have been much, much more.

**Skalatharx** · 08-17-09, 01:04 AM

I have a good nhl system thats a little different to ones posted here, has a few simple filters, last year it hit

Bet A Wins 40
Bet B Wins 14
Bet C Wins 5

0 series losses

But I won't post it on here because no noubt the JM scum bag will claim it as his own and try and flog it off.

Once nhl rocks around I might open up a thread with the picks.

**pm9964** · 08-23-09, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by mcbain

I posted about this possible NHL system in the NBA thread where we have been following the Morrison NBA system and I suggested it might work for hockey.

Good and bad news so far after going through this season's data in the NHL, looking for a possible any 3-game road trip A-B-C series betting system.

This season so far if one was to bet every visiting team heading out on a 3 game road trip (and split 6-game trip into two bets) on a straight moneyline bet record would be:

76 A wins
43 B wins
17 C wins

for 136 total wins which sounds nice.

However, you would encounter, if you bet moneyline with no filters:

27 losses

Your record is 136-27 and with series betting you are down for the season.

So with those numbers we have no system.

HOWEVER, if we bet the +1.5 line on all our road teams (when available and looking at the games only one team would have been favored on the road, DET), we would see

22 of those losses turn to wins
as there was at least one game in the series where our team lost by 1 goal.

Further, if we eliminated playing teams in the second 3 of a 6-game roadie, we could eiminate another

3 losses (and one of those was DET)

So we are down to 2 outright losses

The last filter that we could apply would be to elminate betting on the teams with the 5 worst road records (or 4 or 3, something like that).

That would eliminate another loss as OTT would not have been a play.

That would leave us with ONE outright loss, Carolina series starting on Jan. 8 of this year.

So applying a +1.5 betting strategy, skip the second 3 games of the long trips, don't bet on the absolute worst road teams, you could come up with a record of

145-1

(the original 136 wins plus the 22 gained by betting +1.5, take off 13 wins by skipping second set of 3 on 6-game trips and taking off the losses that simply would not have been bet.)

Is that clear to everyone? I'm sure not.

Anyway, that's all I've got. If this would work for previous seasons I am not sure yet but I invite anyone to take a look.

I really like this and am researching something similiar. My question is- how many games do you wait for before jumping in? 2 weeks? 4 weeks? 6 weeks into the season?

**mcbain** · 09-02-09, 11:24 PM

Anyone that buys JM's 'new' hockey system for $247 (!!) let me know if it is simply a rip-off of the system I wrote about in the first post of this thread.

I am curious.

**threeg5** · 09-02-09, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by mcbain

Anyone that buys JM's 'new' hockey system for $247 (!!) let me know if it is simply a rip-off of the system I wrote about in the first post of this thread.

I am curious.

Maybe this will help it is almost the same, but you seem to have more plays then what he is advertising at the moment. You have 145-1 if I remember right, and he is saying 76-1. I'll take the 145 personally, but here is the link to the Morrison NHL thread don't know if it helps!

**Marvinj** · 09-03-09, 01:09 AM

I have never followed a system before, so im just wondering if you are gonna post all the plays. And i have a question about ABC bets. What does it mean?

**Blargh** · 09-03-09, 01:50 AM

For Bet A you bet x units to win one unit
If Bet A loses, in Bet B you bet y to win x+1 unit.
If Bet B loses, in Bet C you bet z to win y+x+1 unit.
etc....
If you have a system that produces even odds, you would be betting 32 units by Bet F to win your previous bets and one unit. Better than even, then you'd be betting much more.

**Blargh** · 09-03-09, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by threeg5

Maybe this will help it is almost the same, but you seem to have more plays then what he is advertising at the moment. You have 145-1 if I remember right, and he is saying 76-1. I'll take the 145 personally, but here is the link to the Morrison NHL thread don't know if it helps!

From I have read, which isn't much, the road trips in JM is against the opposite conference while McBain is for all three game road trips regardless of opponents. That would explain the large difference in games.
It doesn't explain each system having a loss. In one loss McBain records is Carolina and they lost a game while in Ottawa. A team in the same conference. That series wouldn't be a play if Morrison's was based on road trips to the opposite conference.
We'll have to wait until someone who has paid for the Morrison system to post it. Right now it seems it all speculation.

**betyuda** · 09-03-09, 02:10 AM

I think one filter that could be added is to avoid the top two rpi teams

**threeg5** · 09-03-09, 08:03 AM

yes

Originally posted by Blargh

From I have read, which isn't much, the road trips in JM is against the opposite conference while McBain is for all three game road trips regardless of opponents. That would explain the large difference in games.
It doesn't explain each system having a loss. In one loss McBain records is Carolina and they lost a game while in Ottawa. A team in the same conference. That series wouldn't be a play if Morrison's was based on road trips to the opposite conference.
We'll have to wait until someone who has paid for the Morrison system to post it. Right now it seems it all speculation.

I was going to post something similar.
WHERE can I get the stats to back test some stuff

I am thinking that if it works well without the conference filter then play it that way, but has it been back tested. I understand that past performance is no indicator of future results however, it does show some merit when applying it to series type stuff and having a performance filter in place (i.e. RPI filter (by the way where is that for the NHL

))

Originally posted by betyuda

I think one filter that could be added is to avoid the top two rpi teams

another one is the bottom 2 or 3 teams do not wager on those to win.
SO there we have a hypothesis for a V1 and a V1a.
V1 If a team is in the top 2 or 3 (as calculated by a performance filter agreed upon by us) then the system is to be reversed.
These are just thoughts and must be looked at and back tested or paper tested (I do not know if the stats for their performance will still be available like the MLB RPI is not it changes after every series and game)
V1a if a team is in the bottom 2 or 3 then reverse the system as well and wager on the other team.

These would especially baud true if a team in the bottom 2 or 3 was suppose to be wagered upon against a team in the top 2 or 3.
maybe the wager could be increased @ your own risk of course
after all we need our way of getting out of losing bets too (The preceding underlined statement was meant to make someone laugh and a direct shot at JM's way of business I would never do that nor condone that being done)

I Will however increase my wager a little when this happens at my own risk because it makes sense to me

WE need some help getting some of this tested if it can be and any input would be great lets smash some money out this NHL season.

**betyuda** · 09-03-09, 09:38 AM

As far as the JM system goes, it does seem to be true that it is that system. 3 road games against the opposite conference. I was just saying the RPI system could be relevant if you did not follow the opposite conference system. Reason is that the carolina played a number 1 RPI team in the series which was of course boston bruins. I would have avoided this game considering the bruins were the best team or one of the best team in the leagues, and had consistently a top 2 RPI rating most of the season. Towards the 2 half, they were constantly in the top 2 RPI. This is speculation in some ways, but avoiding a top 2 rpi did seem to help in losses in the past couple of years as well.

**G's pks** · 09-03-09, 11:21 AM

Guys is there a way someone can bold out and print the exact rules... with nothing else in the post...an exact guideline... or I can sift through and do it...but I would rather make sure it is done right...let me know...or I will go through and give it a shot... Lets make sure we are all on the same page... I am in on this one..great job!

**G's pks** · 09-03-09, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by Marvinj

I have never followed a system before, so im just wondering if you are gonna post all the plays. And i have a question about ABC bets. What does it mean?

Marvin I ran a highly successful baseball chase this summer to get a feel of it...go into the baseball forum and look up my thread... The way we should do it is to have one reliable person post the picks bolded...

If everyone is coming in trying to post...some will misinterpret the system and be posting the wrong plays! This happens all the time in the John Morrison thread!

**G's pks** · 09-03-09, 11:42 AM

Also....if there is one bolded thread with nothing but the rules and money management style to be successful everyone interested instead of explaining over and over again could be referred to that post #...

I have no access to my pms otherwise would be contacting you guys to set up the main page...

**threeg5** · 09-03-09, 01:16 PM

G I am thinking betyuda is the one to post plays. I believe he is the one responsible for this thread ( I am mobile so searching around is hard sorry for any "incorrectness") I do not feel responsible enough just being honest here.
1 thread first post exact rules only post the plays in that thread
Another thread for discussion
Make sense?
There are so many twists that are possible here that's y I recommend the seperate threads.
Anyone have a differrent thought view and or outlook on this let's get it out there and make this good and get going

**mcbain** · 09-03-09, 02:08 PM

MCBAIN NHL SYSTEM RULES:
(the 1st post of this thread tells you everything you need to know)

It is very simple. We bet NHL road teams when they go on road trips of at least 3 games. When the team is the favorite, bet moneyline. When the team is the underdog, bet puckline +1.5.

Make A bet, if it loses bet B so you still profit, if it loses bet C so you still profit on the entire series.

Using these filters should work for 09-10:
1. don't play first series of season or last for any team
2. don't play second series of 3 on any road trip
3. play +1.5 whenever available
4. eliminate teams with losing road records once at least 25 games have been played. (At start of year, could use road records from last season but that is iffy).
possible 5. do not play against top 2-3 RPI teams when they are at home

**G's pks** · 09-03-09, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by threeg5

G I am thinking betyuda is the one to post plays. I believe he is the one responsible for this thread ( I am mobile so searching around is hard sorry for any "incorrectness") I do not feel responsible enough just being honest here.
1 thread first post exact rules only post the plays in that thread
Another thread for discussion
Make sense?
There are so many twists that are possible here that's y I recommend the seperate threads.
Anyone have a differrent thought view and or outlook on this let's get it out there and make this good and get going

OK and McBain has reposted rukes...we can refer to that post... and also first post...

Mcbain will you also be responsible to post daily?

**mcbain** · 09-03-09, 02:39 PM

I am going to talk to my buddy cheme82 and we will likely start a thread together for the NHL season where we post the plays only in that thread. He helped me out last year testing the system and posting the plays when we did a test run at the end of the season.

We would ask that nobody starts posting speculative plays or questions in that thread. Sound OK?

**G's pks** · 09-03-09, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by mcbain

I am going to talk to my buddy cheme82 and we will likely start a thread together for the NHL season where we post the plays only in that thread. He helped me out last year testing the system and posting the plays when we did a test run at the end of the season.

We would ask that nobody starts posting speculative plays or questions in that thread. Sound OK?

I was thinking maybe if you guys bold and use an unusual color such as blue...that way we will know to ignore any other picks...GL G.

**threeg5** · 09-03-09, 04:23 PM

Mcbain. That's awesome as long as u are confident u will not can but will keep up with it we will be up aginst a lot of bashers saying "u stole it blah blah" so as well as the big blue bold picks there should be a link maybe to the discussion thread with each post just trying to keep that pick thread clean I'm not trying to make it harder. if it gets to bad I have other ideas but for now that should work hopefully layout the law on the first post with the system so nothing is being hidden and ppl have a place to comment whatever it may be also. So the thread will have 1st post rules and asking that ppl that don't want to do this or that hate it for being what it is please use the discussion thread link and system and then from there each post after that will be either a play or a bump for the day with a link to the discussion thread. Does this sound good

**mathdotcom** · 09-03-09, 04:47 PM

I love these threads

They make me feel so superior

**threeg5** · 09-03-09, 05:14 PM

Just curiuos

Originally posted by mathdotcom

I love these threads

They make me feel so superior

Somewhere along the way I am sure that you have more knowledge in an area then everyone on this forum. I am also sure that each of us have more knowledge in an area then you have. Now with that said if you have something consturctive to share please do so if all you have to offer is that our thread makes you feel superior then buddy I am inferior to no one person except GOD and I'll
Kick in Jesus as well and if you truly feel superior I am fairly sure that your ethics and maybe morals are fu'ked. Thank you for your contribution thus far but no thanks and to you sir have a good day elsewhere.
Mike G

**Hard10** · 09-03-09, 05:48 PM

I call it the "Never More than 1 Loss in 20 Years NHL Hockey
Betting System" -- and this one well deserves its name! Last year
in the 2008-09 NHL season, my system produced 76 winners to only 1
single loss. Remember, 1 loss has been the record number of losses
recorded during any season of hockey over the last 20 years!

Wow, That JM fellow is such a nice guy, and smart too !!! He only want's $247 and I can win that back on the very first play ! I'm sure he didn't kike this system from this thread. My hand is on the checkbook...........my pen is slowly coming down to write........Nahhh, I just tore it up, I'll just wait for it for free.

**threeg5** · 09-03-09, 07:15 PM

Oh and does anyone else think this needs to get up BEFORE JM releases his and it gets posted up for certain that way the credentials. Are in place not that it matters all that much but I guess its just the principle of the matter

**Marvinj** · 09-04-09, 02:52 AM

When will we start useing the system. Like after how many matches?