Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

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  • calmeat
    SBR MVP
    • 05-04-11
    • 1678

    #386
    Originally posted by Nielsio
    Hi Mitch51, i'm reading Pitt is currently banged up and without certain players. Do you consider this info as well when making decisions on the picks?
    Only Malkin and dupios are out but they got both defenders back
    Comment
    • Rumplebeanskin
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-13-13
      • 203

      #387
      Originally posted by calmeat
      Alright finally done that.
      Top Game win% - CHI
      Top Game Consensus Win% = CHI
      Highest Avg Lead = CHI (tied with Pit but higher game wint%)

      So CHI is my B bet in my chases for all the cats.

      GL all!
      So 5% of the BR on CHI? Or 3% REG 2% ML?
      Comment
      • mitch51
        SBR MVP
        • 05-15-12
        • 4587

        #388
        As much as I like the games that popped out at me and with checking
        Calmeat's chart/consensus and the 5 categories. Chi line is too high and
        I'm walking away today with no bet.
        Mitch and I feel the game doesn't fall into our perimeters.

        GLTA

        Ali & Mitch
        Comment
        • calmeat
          SBR MVP
          • 05-04-11
          • 1678

          #389
          Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
          So 5% of the BR on CHI? Or 3% REG 2% ML?
          So this was my 2nd bet of 3game chase so it would end up being more. Depends on what you are gonna do if you are only gonna play my 3 plays then i would do say 2% of BR for each bet totaling 6%. If all 3 win then next night i would do the same. Otherwise i would chase the bets. If you want i can post my actual plays with money attached. Let me know. CHI looking good right now. I also played this one with my local for 50 i think this would be the most i was ever up on the local book
          Comment
          • jnsbanman
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 01-08-11
            • 526

            #390
            Just realized I forgot to post my plays... I had All "B" bets today CHI was the main play (Win %, Cons, High Avg Lead) and BOS for High Odds. Made close to 10% tonite.
            Comment
            • calmeat
              SBR MVP
              • 05-04-11
              • 1678

              #391
              and just to let you know ill be doing family things this weekend and traveling back home on sunday (2 hour drive from inlaws) so ill do my best to get the plays out. I may not have the time to post my plays but just know I am only playing
              Top game win%
              Top consensus game win%
              Highest Avg Lead (for regulation)
              Top 70% game (if there is one)

              So Jason usually posts his plays and those teams will 99.9% of the time be the same as mine he just plays more categories then i do.

              It also looks like i can finally up my Units. (im playing 2.5% of BR is a unit now)
              Old unit size = 2.50
              new unit size = 3.42

              And just for record keeping on my end as well. with 2.50 a unit im +39.88u, I am going to keep track now with the new unit size until the next unit change.
              Comment
              • Rumplebeanskin
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-13-13
                • 203

                #392
                Originally posted by calmeat
                So this was my 2nd bet of 3game chase so it would end up being more. Depends on what you are gonna do if you are only gonna play my 3 plays then i would do say 2% of BR for each bet totaling 6%. If all 3 win then next night i would do the same. Otherwise i would chase the bets. If you want i can post my actual plays with money attached.
                That would be really useful yeah, for a short while at least until I see what it is you're doing. I'm not sure what the chase is that you're doing, so would be good to see how you're managing that.

                Last night I put down 2% BR on CHI REG, and 4% on CHI ML. Both came off for a rough gain of 3%.

                First night of the "new regime", trying to be disciplined! Chased a 3 team parlay for 4% lol Came off tho, BOS, PIT, DAL, but that isn't the point If it hadn't come off, i would have won 2/3 bets last night and lost 1% of my BR. Instead, I gained 13% of my BR, so I guess I got lucky.

                MUST GAIN MORE PATIENCE!!!
                Comment
                • jnsbanman
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 01-08-11
                  • 526

                  #393
                  Hey guys what I got for today is

                  LAK 4% (win %, 70%+, top consensus, high avg lead)
                  LAK -0.5 in reg 1% (high avg lead)
                  ANA 1% (high odds between -140 and -199)
                  Comment
                  • mitch51
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-15-12
                    • 4587

                    #394
                    This is what I have for games that pop out after crunching numbers; as always I'm waiting for Calmeat's chart/consensus/categories that would fall within our guidelines:

                    TB
                    BOS
                    CHI
                    ANA
                    LA

                    Be back later.

                    Ali & Mitch

                    Gr8 job to all of you yesterday.
                    Comment
                    • calmeat
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-04-11
                      • 1678

                      #395
                      doing family things going to rerun system in 30-45 minutes with the latest updates then ill post.
                      Comment
                      • mitch51
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-15-12
                        • 4587

                        #396
                        Originally posted by calmeat
                        doing family things going to rerun system in 30-45 minutes with the latest updates then ill post.

                        No problem, we have family coming in today. Also trying to get things ready before they do.

                        Ali
                        Comment
                        • calmeat
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-04-11
                          • 1678

                          #397
                          Alright here we go (little upset i was hoping for LAK to be Consensus but oh well)
                          Consensus
                          DET
                          TBL
                          BOS
                          NJD
                          ANA
                          Comment
                          • calmeat
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-04-11
                            • 1678

                            #398
                            So today my plays
                            Top Game Win% = LAK $3.42(1u)
                            Top Consensus Game win% = ANA $3.42 (1u)
                            Highest Avg Lead = LAK $3.42 (1u)
                            Comment
                            • mitch51
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-15-12
                              • 4587

                              #399
                              Kings it is - line a bit high -165

                              GLTA

                              Ali & Mitch
                              Comment
                              • jnsbanman
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 01-08-11
                                • 526

                                #400
                                Crap... I assumed LAK would be consensus... Throws off my bets. Now do I throw another 1% on Ana???
                                Comment
                                • mitch51
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-15-12
                                  • 4587

                                  #401
                                  Family back on the road, I've crunched my numbers. A couple of games the lines are too high and one team hasn't played for nine days.

                                  MON
                                  PIT
                                  TB
                                  CO
                                  ANA

                                  Just waiting for Calmeat now.

                                  Be back later.

                                  Ali & Mitch
                                  Comment
                                  • calmeat
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-04-11
                                    • 1678

                                    #402
                                    Just got home and rushing to get the plays out hopefully soon
                                    Comment
                                    • calmeat
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-04-11
                                      • 1678

                                      #403
                                      will update in a bit
                                      AVG lead bet going to MTL
                                      Comment
                                      • calmeat
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-04-11
                                        • 1678

                                        #404
                                        Consensus
                                        MTL
                                        WSH
                                        STL
                                        TBL
                                        TOR
                                        COL
                                        MIN

                                        Comment
                                        • calmeat
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-04-11
                                          • 1678

                                          #405
                                          So unfortunately MTL would have been the Top Con Game win% bet
                                          I was able to get the MTL Regulation bet in for Highest Avg lead but nothing else.

                                          VAN will be B bet for Top Win%

                                          Sorry about that 2 hour drive turned into 3.5 hour drive on the PA Turnpike today
                                          Comment
                                          • mitch51
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-15-12
                                            • 4587

                                            #406
                                            One question Calmeat, what is Form %?

                                            Thanks
                                            Ali
                                            Comment
                                            • mitch51
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-15-12
                                              • 4587

                                              #407
                                              The games are not falling into our guidelines. I think no play today unless I do a dog:

                                              ANA

                                              GLTA


                                              Ali & Mitch
                                              Comment
                                              • Rumplebeanskin
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 11-13-13
                                                • 203

                                                #408
                                                I've had my 4% on VAN ML. I got lucky that I didn't get the picks until after Montreal had started or I'd have chucked some money on them, caught a break I guess as they got stuffed.

                                                Won some nice cash on the NFL tonight, so put a cheeky extra 4% on Isles and Ducks 2 team parlay. Pays out 6/1. Crazy!
                                                Comment
                                                • calmeat
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-04-11
                                                  • 1678

                                                  #409
                                                  Yeah u lucked out on the MTL game. I was in a rush and played it. I actually really dont like the AVG Lead unless its 7 or above but went with MTL and that sucked. Oh well hopefully VAN can pull it out.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mitch51
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-15-12
                                                    • 4587

                                                    #410
                                                    Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                                                    I've had my 4% on VAN ML. I got lucky that I didn't get the picks until after Montreal had started or I'd have chucked some money on them, caught a break I guess as they got stuffed.

                                                    Won some nice cash on the NFL tonight, so put a cheeky extra 4% on Isles and Ducks 2 team parlay. Pays out 6/1. Crazy!
                                                    Wow, someone else betting dogs too.

                                                    Go man go!

                                                    Ali & Mitch
                                                    Comment
                                                    • jnsbanman
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 01-08-11
                                                      • 526

                                                      #411
                                                      Hey guys.. Totally missed today. Was out and about. I missed MTL thankfully. And put it all on VAN so nice big win today. Also have some on SJS as well so far so good.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Rumplebeanskin
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-13-13
                                                        • 203

                                                        #412
                                                        Ha, as if it was the Ducks that cost me and not the Isles!

                                                        Still, good day yesterday! 5 game parlay on the NFL made £3 into £11, in game live bet of Penguins in reg at 1-1 made £1 into £2, Canucks won and made £1 into £1.70, and so close to having that 2 team ANA/NYI bet come off!

                                                        Gives me a bit more bank roll to work with, so that's always good.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • jnsbanman
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-08-11
                                                          • 526

                                                          #413
                                                          Nice work rumple
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jnsbanman
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 01-08-11
                                                            • 526

                                                            #414
                                                            Well another short card... He is what I go so far

                                                            Van ML 2.68% to win 2%
                                                            Det ML 1% to win 1.03%
                                                            Det Regulation ML 1% to win 1.03%

                                                            And possibly Chi 1.4% to Win 1% if the odds stay over -140 (Looking for movement in our favor)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • calmeat
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-04-11
                                                              • 1678

                                                              #415
                                                              Going to be running system at 2:30 should have picks around 3.

                                                              And always know Jason is going by my preliminary numbers so sometimes they do change.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mitch51
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-15-12
                                                                • 4587

                                                                #416
                                                                Originally posted by calmeat
                                                                Going to be running system at 2:30 should have picks around 3.

                                                                And always know Jason is going by my preliminary numbers so sometimes they do change.

                                                                Calmeat uhhm is 2:30pm Eastern your time? Just double checking.
                                                                Also could you explain the Form %

                                                                Thanks

                                                                Ali
                                                                Comment
                                                                • calmeat
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-04-11
                                                                  • 1678

                                                                  #417
                                                                  mitch yeah EST.

                                                                  Form Factor is Goals For and Goals against last 4 games. So if in the past 4 games a team has been blowing other teams away then their form factor will be high. A way to see if a team is hot or not.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mitch51
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-15-12
                                                                    • 4587

                                                                    #418
                                                                    Originally posted by calmeat
                                                                    mitch yeah EST.

                                                                    Form Factor is Goals For and Goals against last 4 games. So if in the past 4 games a team has been blowing other teams away then their form factor will be high. A way to see if a team is hot or not.

                                                                    Thanks

                                                                    Ali
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • calmeat
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-04-11
                                                                      • 1678

                                                                      #419
                                                                      12/30/13
                                                                      Value Plays
                                                                      Gold($10.00) = 35-31 +$70
                                                                      Silver($5.00) = 61-67 -$66.75
                                                                      Bronze($2.50) = 56-45 +$3.84

                                                                      Game Win %
                                                                      ML= 309-218 58.63%
                                                                      ML(Regulation)= 240-69 77.67%
                                                                      O/U= 70-59 54.26%

                                                                      Game Win % breakdown
                                                                      50-54%= 60-54 52.63%
                                                                      55-59%= 78-56 58.21%
                                                                      60-64= 73-54 57.48%
                                                                      65-69%= 58-42 58%
                                                                      70+%= 42-10 80.77%

                                                                      Consensus 155-98 61.26%
                                                                      DET
                                                                      CHI
                                                                      VAN

                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • calmeat
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-04-11
                                                                        • 1678

                                                                        #420
                                                                        My plays
                                                                        TGW = Top Game Win %
                                                                        TCGW = Top Consensus Game Win %
                                                                        AVL = Highest Avg Lead

                                                                        TGW - VAN (-140) (A) $3.42
                                                                        TCGW - VAN (-140) (A) $3.42
                                                                        AVL - DET (+155) (C) $7.87(risking)
                                                                        Comment
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