Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[mitch51]

Heres what i got today
Consensus
NYR
VAN

Thanks Calmeat.

GL on games today everyone!

Ali & Mitch

[Fernburn74]

What the best play tonight???

[calmeat]

What the best play tonight???

For me im not touching anything tonight. If i were to bet it would probably got VAN ML or NYR REG but i dont really like either so im laying off tonight.

[jnsbanman]

Well another short card. I got VAN ML for 2% (high win % and cons), NYR ML 1% (high avg lead),NYR -0.5 in Reg 1% (high avg lead), and VAN ML 0.5% (high odds)

Got them all!!!

[mitch51]

Got them all!!!

super!

Mitch & Ali

[mitch51]

After crunching the numbers, these are the games that pop out:

ANA
PIT
BOS
CHI (line too high)
STL
SJ (line too high)
LAK (line too high)

Waiting on Calmeat's chart to check the 5 categories.

Be back lata

Ali & Mitch

[jnsbanman]

Well for today I got STL ML for 2%(High Win% and High Consensus), PIT ML for 1%(High Avg Lead), PIT -0.5 in Reg 1%(High Avg Lead), and LAK ML 1% (High odds -140 to -199

[calmeat]

12/23/13
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 34-28 +$84
Silver($5.00) = 57-62 -$57.50
Bronze($2.50) = 50-42 +$0.22

Game Win %
ML= 286-200 58.85%
ML(Regulation)= 224-61 78.60%
O/U= 67-58 53.60%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 53-48 52.48%
55-59%= 73-52 58.40%
60-64= 64-52 55.17%
65-69%= 55-38 59.14%
70+%= 42-9 82.35%

Consensus 140-87 61.67%
PHX
CBJ
PIT
PHI
BOS
CHI
STL
SJS
LAK

[calmeat]

Im playing
STL ML 2u (1u Top Game win%, 1u Top Consensus Game win%)
PIT -.5 Reg 1u (Highest AVG Lead)

[mitch51]

Looks like the STL Blues have it.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Pittsburgh and St Louis both concern me tonight. I think they will squeak it tho, but I have a bit of an iffy feeling. I've still backing them, but I'm not convinced at the mo!

[RollinDo]

I feel the same about them. Thinking of a parlay:
Pens (+1) / Blues (+1/2 1st 60) / Kings ML

[Rumplebeanskin]

NHL Betting System
Any home team that comes off a loss in their previous game, versus an opponent coming off 7 or more wins in a row, has gone 21-7 (75%) versus the money line since the beginning of the 2009-2010 season. We feel confident in the statistics and will be adding Ottawa to our NHL picks.
Free Pick: Ottawa +120 over Pittsburgh

NHL Betting System
Any home team which has allowed 3-goals or more in their last 2-games, versus an opponent who won their previous 2-games each by 3-goals or more, has gone 28-14 (66.7%) versus the money line since the beginning of the 2009-2010 season. We'll add Calgary to our NHL picks.
Free Pick: Calgary +135 over St. Louis

Both are from the man SBR site. Does anyone pay much attention to these? They usually get my interest a bit.

[calmeat]

Yeah both teams are hot and could be in for a potential let down game. But my thinking is due to the 3 day break starting tomorrow the better teams will come out and play tonight since they will have a nice break before games start back up on friday. The will want to go into the holidays with a win. I guess we will see.

GL!

[Rumplebeanskin]

Annoying

[mitch51]

Ouch but we'll get it Friday.

Merry Christmas Elf...eryone!

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

ah that sucks was hoping to at least get the STL game oh well luckily we had some good days leading up to this. Have good holidays, and talk on friday

[jnsbanman]

Oh well crappy night. It happens... it has to happen. We will get it back after the break no worries. Have a good Christmas everyone. Enjoy the break.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Total horseshit. Every time I bet any sort of amount it's one of those "Crappy Nights". When I'm pissing around with £1 or £2, no problems there, it's all wins. As soon as I do anything more I just get the shaft. Very frustrated right now

[Rumplebeanskin]

Sorry, that was a total "stayed up til 5am to watch my money disappear" vent post lol

Guess I'll be fully into the 1% bets now, my BR is pretty small now and it's gotta last me til the end of the season. Slow and steady, I'm fed up of pissing money away

[calmeat]

Sorry, that was a total "stayed up til 5am to watch my money disappear" vent post lol

Guess I'll be fully into the 1% bets now, my BR is pretty small now and it's gotta last me til the end of the season. Slow and steady, I'm fed up of pissing money away

Rumple no worries. I feel the same, every time i play it safe the bets win. Any time i like a play and throw a little extra on them they lose. It gets very frustrating and can make a person do stupid things. I have made many stupid mistakes being frustrated such as "F it im going all in" because im pissed.
Sunday i played it safe and didnt make a bet since SAT was so good i figured sunday would not go well, of course that swept on sunday and yesterday i lose my bets. Thats why this time especially with NHL and such juicy lines sometimes its really important to stay disciplined and only bet a certain amount of the BR to ensure even if you run into a couple losses you still have some to play with.

Friday will be here soon enough and a chance to get our money back.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Yeah, good advice. I chase far too often when I'm grumpy!

Last night Dallas went 2-1 and the line was really nice for LAK, threw some money on that and it went south as well. Not cool. Need to get some discipline!

[calmeat]

Yeah, good advice. I chase far too often when I'm grumpy!

Last night Dallas went 2-1 and the line was really nice for LAK, threw some money on that and it went south as well. Not cool. Need to get some discipline!

Yes discipline is key. jason and myself have really struggled the past 3 years or so with sticking to our systems either nhl mlb or whatever we are playing at that time. We are really going to try this NHL season though

[calmeat]

so just looking things over and since i started the chase (Highest Game Win%, Highest Consensus game win%, and Highest Avg Lead) on 12/6 im u 31.11units including the 3 game 1 losses from monday. Not bad Hoping it keeps up.

Merry Christmas All!

[Rumplebeanskin]

Merry Christmas peeps!!

Jeez, up 31 units? After Christmas I want to replicate every single pick you make.

How much is a unit for you? And I presume this is just from the 1% of your BR betting technique?

[calmeat]

So rumple, I started off with $50 for BR and some early NHL bets i went up and down i was at $37 when i started doing the chase. I have been using a $2.50 unit. So on a night im usually betting to win 7.50. I know small bets but doing that im now up to $114.84 (thats including Mondays losses) and after the break will hopefully win those losses back. I am thinking of adding some more BR with some Christmas money to be able to get my betting units up. With those 3 bets that i make i bet about 2-3% of my BR for each bet. As the BR grows i will make it so I am betting to Win 5% instead of the current 6-9% that i am doing now.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Sounds awesome. I started in September betting purely on NFL and losing dosh as it's crazy unpredictable. My BR is about $35 at present, so I think I'll try and follow what you do and learn some to see how I can bet a bit smarter.

Pretty sure I'm up to speed with what you're doing, I asked about it previously, I just need to be much better at sticking to it

[Yoinkerz]

any plays for today?

[calmeat]

I will have them soon traveling to inlaws should be there soon and I'll run the plays

[mitch51]

These are the games that pop out after crunching numbers but 2 games have high lines:

PIT
BOS (high line)
CHI (high line)
DAL

Two dawgs I like.

I am waiting to compare with Calmeat's chart/consensus.

Later

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

sorry i know its late still working on it. working with slower pc and internet so things are taking a bit longer.

[Nielsio]

Hi Mitch51, i'm reading Pitt is currently banged up and without certain players. Do you consider this info as well when making decisions on the picks?

[mitch51]

Hi Mitch51, i'm reading Pitt is currently banged up and without certain players. Do you consider this info as well when making decisions on the picks?

Thanks and we do consider this.

Ali

[calmeat]

Consensus
PIT
BOS
CHI
WPG
DAL

[calmeat]

Alright finally done that.
Top Game win% - CHI
Top Game Consensus Win% = CHI
Highest Avg Lead = CHI (tied with Pit but higher game wint%)

So CHI is my B bet in my chases for all the cats.

GL all!