Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[calmeat]

12/18/13
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 30-25 +$72
Silver($5.00) = 54-58 -$56.75
Bronze($2.50) = 47-41 -$3.53

Game Win %
ML= 264-192 57.89%
ML(Regulation)= 211-52 80.23%
O/U= 64-51 55.65%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 52-46 53.06%
55-59%= 63-50 55.75%
60-64= 58-50 53.70%
65-69%= 52-36 59.09%
70+%= 40-9 81.63%

Consensus 125-83 60.10%
PIT

[jnsbanman]

I locked in on Pittsburgh... System spitting that out was kinda surprising with all the injuries. 3% on OT and 1% on Reg

[mitch51]

We agree all the way - Pit Penguins

Ali thought we might not have one but the Pens kept popping out to her.

GLTA

Mitch & Ali

[ddude]

good luck
i want to see the pen's skeleton crew a few more games to see where they're at
i have a feeling a lot of depend on how fleury does

[mitch51]

Whhhhhhhhhhhhoooooooooooooooaaaaaaaaaa that was close!!!!!!!!!



Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

Lost PIT REG but won both bets on PIT ML

Clean sweep on the card though

[jnsbanman]

That one shoulda ended in Regulation but... still ended that way we wanted!!! Rackin up another W

[jnsbanman]

Hmm... Today is looking like a bit of a tough to decide day. Early numbers indicate PIT again... on b2b, depleted roster, backup tender. Hard to lay money on that. MIN has also owned this head 2 head series... But Harding is out for medication adjustment, which puts Backstrom in who has not been sharp this year.

Boston looks like a solid candidate for a play too.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Loving the effort that is being put into this stuff guys! (and Ali )

I'm not sure if I'm missing a trick tho, wondered if someone can point me in the right direction?

On the 17th, I put a few bets on as instructed (I think!), £2 each:

LAK ML (Highest Win %) -210 won £2.95
LAK REG (70% Win Percentage) -150 won £3.33
VAN REG (Highest Average Lead) +140 lost £2

So £6 spent, and ended up with a profit of 28p. That doesn't seem like a lot for winning 2 out of 3 bets! Is that just because the lines were so poor with the Kings being such heavy favourites? Or am I not betting enough? Or am I betting the wrong things?

Last night, 18th:

PIT ML (Highest Win %) +110 £2 bet, won £4.20
PIT REG (Highest Average Lead) +170 £1 lost

So £3 bet, and £1.20 profit. Is that right? I feel like I'm missing something. I can bet more, I just thought I'd bet a very small stake until I got a handle on exactly what I was doing. I pretty much always do parlays to try and get bigger gains (though less often), but I'm pretty interested in what people are doing here to make cash.

Anyone who can give me some feedback, that'd be excellent. Really enjoying the friendly people around this thread, seen a lot of the opposite in some of the others!

[Rumplebeanskin]

Hmm... Today is looking like a bit of a tough to decide day. Early numbers indicate PIT again... on b2b, depleted roster, backup tender. Hard to lay money on that. MIN has also owned this head 2 head series... But Harding is out for medication adjustment, which puts Backstrom in who has not been sharp this year.

Boston looks like a solid candidate for a play too.

Boston, Ottawa and Colorado would be my looks tonight without delving too deeply. Buffalo stink, Ottawa had a closed door meeting last night, I like them to get it back on track at home to Florida, Colorado at home to Oilers, like that match up to. Not seen Goalies or anything like that, just my thoughts in passing from looking at the slate tonight. As always, be interested to see the numbers

[calmeat]

Rumple,
On the 17th the Kings were also the highest avg lead at 1.1 and VAN was .9 so that would have been a clean sweep on that night.
As for last night yes your right not a big profit last night but we will chase that loss with the next reg play.

Jason and myself are doing things a little different. I have a small BR right now so im trying to build it slowly. I am only doing top play over 70%, Top game win%, and Biggest Avg lead (regulation).

Jason is doing some more bets as well.

Loving the effort that is being put into this stuff guys! (and Ali )

I'm not sure if I'm missing a trick tho, wondered if someone can point me in the right direction?

On the 17th, I put a few bets on as instructed (I think!), £2 each:

LAK ML (Highest Win %) -210 won £2.95
LAK REG (70% Win Percentage) -150 won £3.33
VAN REG (Highest Average Lead) +140 lost £2

So £6 spent, and ended up with a profit of 28p. That doesn't seem like a lot for winning 2 out of 3 bets! Is that just because the lines were so poor with the Kings being such heavy favourites? Or am I not betting enough? Or am I betting the wrong things?

Last night, 18th:

PIT ML (Highest Win %) +110 £2 bet, won £4.20
PIT REG (Highest Average Lead) +170 £1 lost

So £3 bet, and £1.20 profit. Is that right? I feel like I'm missing something. I can bet more, I just thought I'd bet a very small stake until I got a handle on exactly what I was doing. I pretty much always do parlays to try and get bigger gains (though less often), but I'm pretty interested in what people are doing here to make cash.

Anyone who can give me some feedback, that'd be excellent. Really enjoying the friendly people around this thread, seen a lot of the opposite in some of the others!

[mitch51]

Loving the effort that is being put into this stuff guys! (and Ali )

I'm not sure if I'm missing a trick tho, wondered if someone can point me in the right direction?

On the 17th, I put a few bets on as instructed (I think!), £2 each:

LAK ML (Highest Win %) -210 won £2.95
LAK REG (70% Win Percentage) -150 won £3.33
VAN REG (Highest Average Lead) +140 lost £2

So £6 spent, and ended up with a profit of 28p. That doesn't seem like a lot for winning 2 out of 3 bets! Is that just because the lines were so poor with the Kings being such heavy favourites? Or am I not betting enough? Or am I betting the wrong things?

Last night, 18th:

PIT ML (Highest Win %) +110 £2 bet, won £4.20
PIT REG (Highest Average Lead) +170 £1 lost

So £3 bet, and £1.20 profit. Is that right? I feel like I'm missing something. I can bet more, I just thought I'd bet a very small stake until I got a handle on exactly what I was doing. I pretty much always do parlays to try and get bigger gains (though less often), but I'm pretty interested in what people are doing here to make cash.

Anyone who can give me some feedback, that'd be excellent. Really enjoying the friendly people around this thread, seen a lot of the opposite in some of the others!

Thanks Rumple tehehe

Ali

[mitch51]

We have bet baseball and liked it. We decided to try betting hockey because it looked like there were so many similarities between the two sports.

I handicap stats but what I like getting here is what's happening beyond that in Calmeat's thread regarding specific situations that could influence the outcome of your bet. This could be anything to injuries, weird scheduling, meetings behind closed doors (Rumplebeanskin). Over time, we have learned to just straight flat bet and trying to stay away from parlays as much as possible but we are total rookies when it comes to hockey. As we too, are building from a small BR.

Thanks to all you guys for all the advice you have given on this thread.

NOW! Let's kill the BOOKS...

Check back lata

Ali & Mitch

[CHOICE]

Boston, Ottawa and Colorado would be my looks tonight without delving too deeply. Buffalo stink, Ottawa had a closed door meeting last night, I like them to get it back on track at home to Florida, Colorado at home to Oilers, like that match up to. Not seen Goalies or anything like that, just my thoughts in passing from looking at the slate tonight. As always, be interested to see the numbers

Ottawa hasn't won the 2nd game of a back to back this season. Florida is rolling right now.

I've got Tampa to continue their domination at home, and Florida ML.

[jnsbanman]

So did some back testing this morning for a thought I had... Target being 1 play per day. Take highest odds between -140 and -199. It has performed surprisingly well. Since Nov 1 34-9 or 79%. Risking 5 units would have made you 20 units to date using a 3 game chase format. Only 1 "C" to date and it won. I based my back test on closing odds so close to game start time will be key.

I will add this information to my daily posts for those interested.

For those of you following the thread... I love chases. Pretty much everything I post will have something to do with a chase. Calmeat can attest to this as we have been working together for quite a while now.

[jnsbanman]

Here are some snips from my tracking spreadsheet on how I do things based on what Calmeat and I have been talking about.







Sorry... This not how I planned the images to come up...

[Juicer]

Adding the fact Oilers are on a 4 game w/s against Colorado inc 2 @ The Pepsi Centre and a 8-2 drubbing they gave them earlier this month, ill take Oilers to get a rare road win here. GL

[Juicer]

Ottawa hasn't won the 2nd game of a back to back this season. Florida is rolling right now.

I've got Tampa to continue their domination at home, and Florida ML.

Adding the fact Oilers are on a 4 game w/s against Colorado inc 2 @ The Pepsi Centre and a 8-2 drubbing they gave them earlier this month, ill take Oilers to get a rare road win here. GL

[calmeat]

12/19/13
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 31-25 +$82.50
Silver($5.00) = 54-58 -$56.75
Bronze($2.50) = 47-41 -$3.53

Game Win %
ML= 266-192 58.08%
ML(Regulation)= 212-53 80%
O/U= 64-51 55.65%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 52-46 53.06%
55-59%= 64-50 56.14%
60-64= 58-50 53.70%
65-69%= 53-36 59.55%
70+%= 40-9 81.63%

Consensus 126-83 60.29%
PIT
BOS
CGY
STL
COL
LAK

[jnsbanman]

My setup for today is

4% Pittsburgh ML
1% Pittsburgh -0.5 in Regulation
0.5% Colorado ML (Subject to late line movement as per high odds chase listed earlier)

[mitch51]

Wifey duties, I'm still crunching numbers and I sped past Calmeat's chart til I am done. These are what pop out at me:

Pit
Bos
TB
STL
Van?
CO?
LA

Lata Ali

[mitch51]

I saw Calmeat's consensus picks, I say I was close with him. I got them down to four games after crunching more numbers:
Pits
Bos
TB
LA
but now to check the suggested categories as you all do to bet.

Lata

Ali

[mitch51]

After looking over everything and the categories it comes down to:

PIT Penguins -135

We could be going to the well once too often with Pit, but it's worth a shot.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

cheers

[Rumplebeanskin]

So did some back testing this morning for a thought I had... Target being 1 play per day. Take highest odds between -140 and -199. It has performed surprisingly well. Since Nov 1 34-9 or 79%. Risking 5 units would have made you 20 units to date using a 3 game chase format. Only 1 "C" to date and it won. I based my back test on closing odds so close to game start time will be key.

I will add this information to my daily posts for those interested.

I'd like to see your pick with this one each day, really interesting and the back testing sounds solid.

So money is on Pittsburgh tonight. Like it. And thank you for all the feedback, and the reason why my quick guess predictions weren't really very good for tonight haha

[jnsbanman]

Woot no doubt on PIT!! +5% more.

GO Colorado to close out the night!

[mitch51]

Whoooooohooooo


Penguins are awesome!

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Woot no doubt on PIT!! +5% more.

GO Colorado to close out the night!

Great job.

Mitch & Ali

[jnsbanman]

Glad we didn't second guess and take boston

[mitch51]

Glad we didn't second guess and take boston

Amen because we were thinking about it.

Mitch

[calmeat]

yeah glad we didnt overthink it.. The past couple years myself and jason have made mistakes overthinking and going against the system to our own demise. We are really going to stick to this one and see where it takes us. Congrats to the followers!

[jnsbanman]

[mitch51]

Good work from a couple of rookies. We did too on a mini .

Mitch & Ali

[mitch51]

I'm not too sure on the games today like yesterday.
Only a couple questionable ones pop out at me.

Be back lata

Ali

[jnsbanman]

This not what I am playing but if i had to pick the card I would say Ducks Rangers Hawks

[mitch51]

This not what I am playing but if i had to pick the card I would say Ducks Rangers Hawks

uhhhm that's what I was looking at but waiting for calmeat.

Ali