Why Aren't You Guys Concentrating on Sure Bets?
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Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#106Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#108Comment -
sideloadedSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-21-10
- 7561
#109This is the guy who gets banned for a day? For misquoting? LMAO. This forum has all kinds of racist, sexist remarks posted by the minute. Touts scamming people and that idiot jjgold physically threatening members but mods spend their time banning this guy. UNREAL.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#110Justin,
I'm quite sure I know why you avoided talking about familiar derivatives such as halves, quarters, props and instead brought up 4-team NFL teasers. It's because IT'S THE ONLY THING THAT SUITS YOUR ABSURD CLAIM. Any other derivative wagers would be optimally wagered with much lower hold. Your statement said derivatives. 4-team NFL teasers are certainly not the entirety of anyone's derivative wagering. So how do you profess that a 20% hold is maintained in all derivative wagering by an individual? I can tell you how to get 250% hold. You might not win a wager for six months, but you have 250% hold! You're just squirming. Plain and simple.Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#111Justin,
I'm quite sure why you avoided talking about familiar derivatives such as halves, quarters, props and instead brought up 4-team NFL teasers. It's because IT'S THE ONLY THING THAT SUITS YOUR ABSURD CLAIM. Your statement said derivatives. 4-team NFL teasers are certainly not the entirety of anyone's derivative wagering. So how do you profess that a 20% hold is maintained in all derivative wagering by an individual? I can tell you how to get 250% hold. You might not win a wager for six months, but you have 250% hold! You're just squirming. Plain and simple.
I'm somewhat hesitant to discuss this in public, but I can probe. The downside is quasi-sharps might look more into these. How much can you get down on CPs in a year (with or without destroying outs)? What about ridiculously priced H2 lines on smaller markets? Or "good props" (with 20% holds before parlaying)?Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
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DataSBR MVP
- 11-27-07
- 2236
#113I don't. He might have been talking about differences in TT skewness for Home and Away teams which are not reflected in teasers prices that treat Home and Away teams the same. If we assume that the spread markets are efficient and notice kurtosis anomalies we have to conclude that this leads to teasaers inefficiencies.Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#114Thanks for using precise quotes. It does simplify discussions.
If I say ultra efficient, does that mean purely efficient? Of course not. If I meant that, I would say that. A perfectly efficient NFL market would have no opportunity at all. I make NFL plays, and put them on my spreadsheet. NFL plays are small percentage wise (relative to easier to beat markets), because the NFL is tough to beat. Lines are tight. Not perfect, but a lot more efficient than most offerings.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#115I don't. He might have been talking about differences in TT skewness for Home and Away teams which are not reflected in teasers prices that treat Home and Away teams the same. If we assume that the spread markets are efficient and notice kurtosis anomalies we have to conclude that this leads to teasaers inefficiencies.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#116Thanks for using precise quotes. It does simplify discussions.
If I say ultra efficient, does that mean purely efficient? Of course not. If I meant that, I would say that. A perfectly efficient NFL market would have no opportunity at all. I make NFL plays, and put them on my spreadsheet. NFL plays are small percentage wise (relative to easier to beat markets), because the NFL is tough to beat. Lines are tight. Not perfect, but a lot more efficient than most offerings.Comment -
DataSBR MVP
- 11-27-07
- 2236
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MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#120Comment -
DataSBR MVP
- 11-27-07
- 2236
#121If we take this as a fact then:
- if we assume that the scoring for H and for A is the same then the past good performance of H teasers is due to variance and there is no reason to think that going forward H teasers will perform better than A teasers.
- if we assume that the scoring for H and for A is different but is not reflected in spread/ml pairs of lines (conversion) then it shows that NFL market is consistently inefficient.
It seems that your statement should be presented in a much more convincing manner because it leads to significant conclusions none of which intuitively seems to be true. Well, for me, the latter is actually intuitively true but the argument would be to obvious and yet significant to be overlooked in previous discussions on market efficiency.Comment -
skrtelfanSBR MVP
- 10-09-08
- 1913
#122Of course a favorite of 7.5 is going to be a higher ML favorite than a favorite of -7. As I write this, Pinnacle is dealing identical lines on NYG and GB, both are -7 -110 with the other side +7 +102, and the corresponding MLs are NYG -316/SEA +278 and DAL +293/GB -335. In general, given the same spread on an away dog and a home dog, the away dog will be a slightly higher ML dog than the home dog.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#123If we take this as a fact then:
- if we assume that the scoring for H and for A is the same then the past good performance of H teasers is due to variance and there is no reason to think that going forward H teasers will perform better than A teasers.
- if we assume that the scoring for H and for A is different but is not reflected in spread/ml pairs of lines (conversion) then it shows that NFL market is consistently inefficient.
It seems that your statement should be presented in a much more convincing manner because it leads to significant conclusions none of which intuitively seems to be true. Well, for me, the latter is actually intuitively true but the argument would be to obvious and yet significant to be overlooked in previous discussions on market efficiency.Comment -
DataSBR MVP
- 11-27-07
- 2236
#124Of course a favorite of 7.5 is going to be a higher ML favorite than a favorite of -7. As I write this, Pinnacle is dealing identical lines on NYG and GB, both are -7 -110 with the other side +7 +102, and the corresponding MLs are NYG -316/SEA +278 and DAL +293/GB -335. In general, given the same spread on an away dog and a home dog, the away dog will be a slightly higher ML dog than the home dog.Comment -
ThrempSBR MVP
- 07-23-07
- 2067
#125I think the forum is dumber for Justin7's comments ITT.Comment -
byronbbSBR MVP
- 11-13-08
- 3067
#127I think many advantage players are closet/unconscious degens. Arbs are boring. Swings from full kelly stake betting is not.Comment
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