Why Aren't You Guys Concentrating on Sure Bets?

**wrongturn** · 11-05-10, 02:01 PM

Never seen a discussion this way off topic.

But good read.
Yeah, I can't see how you can earn 20% from 4-team basic strategy teasers. Must be some thing else need to be included.

**Pancho sanza** · 11-05-10, 02:04 PM

You need 4 legs at .74 to make a 3-1 4 teamer 20 %

Difficult, but not impossible.

If you have a local with stale #'s, quite easy some weeks.

**raiders72001** · 11-05-10, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Raiders,

What's your EV on a 4-team 6-point BS teaser, excluding road favs?

I saw your response to Pancho but can't find what the criteria is that you are using.

imo it's tough to find 4 teams to tease each week. This week isn't bad. There's Atl, Minn, GB . Would you tease both Buf and Hou? Would be much easier for me to answer based on real situations.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 11-05-10, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

You need 4 legs at .74 to make a 3-1 4 teamer 20 %

Difficult, but not impossible.

If you have a local with stale #'s, quite easy some weeks.

True, Pancho. You might be able to find 20+% in spots, but for someone to say that they can achieve 20% hold in derivatives overall on "medium volume" is beyond absurd unless you give up a ton of EG.

**durito** · 11-05-10, 02:31 PM

BS teasers don't exactly win every year.

Are there really vegas books paying +300 on 4 teamers?

**durito** · 11-05-10, 02:32 PM

Justin,

Why do you believe RF to be -ev?

**raiders72001** · 11-05-10, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by durito

Justin,

Why do you believe RF to be -ev?

to help promote his book, it's also addressed there.

**Justin7** · 11-05-10, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

to help promote his book, it's also addressed there.

Thanks, Raiders

There's till good to use as filler legs, and scalp them out.

**durito** · 11-05-10, 03:03 PM

The book gives bill the cop data mining logic. These teasers didn't win in the past so they won't in the future.

**Justin7** · 11-05-10, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by durito

The book gives bill the cop data mining logic. These teasers didn't win in the past so they won't in the future.

So you've never noticed anything odd that happens in all sports with big road favs? Not just NFL?

**wrongturn** · 11-05-10, 03:15 PM

I guess from theory road fav is no difference to home fav, but in practice based on history records, road fav came in less than 70% covering +6.

**Justin7** · 11-05-10, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by wrongturn

I guess from theory road fav is no difference to home fav, but in practice based on history records, road fav came in less than 70% covering +6.

Ok. Now look at NBA. How do big favorites do straight up? Separate between road and home.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 11-05-10, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

So you've never noticed anything odd that happens in all sports with big road favs? Not just NFL?

So wait. Now the NFL market isn't efficient with RF's? Will you PLEASE make up your mind, Justin?

**MonkeyF0cker** · 11-05-10, 03:19 PM

First, we go from a 20% hold on all derivatives to 4-team NFL teasers. Now, after arguing endlessly about the efficiency of the NFL market, it's really not efficient afterall? WOW!

**wrongturn** · 11-05-10, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

You need 4 legs at .74 to make a 3-1 4 teamer 20 %

Difficult, but not impossible.

If you have a local with stale #'s, quite easy some weeks.

Thanks, I always thought it is 5% in this case, but surprised to see it is indeed 20%.

**Justin7** · 11-05-10, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

So wait. Now the NFL market isn't efficient with RF's? Will you PLEASE make up your mind, Justin?

Spread-ML conversion charts that don't distinguish between home and favorite teams have added error at the higher spreads. As I've said, sports markets are mostly efficient, but not 100%.

**raiders72001** · 11-05-10, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

So wait. Now the NFL market isn't efficient with RF's? Will you PLEASE make up your mind, Justin?

MF, why can't you just discuss a topic instead of just making sophomoric posts?

**wrongturn** · 11-05-10, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Ok. Now look at NBA. How do big favorites do straight up? Separate between road and home.

Never data mine it. I am waiting for someone to tell me.

hope btc will come back.

**raiders72001** · 11-05-10, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Spread-ML conversion charts that don't distinguish between home and favorite teams have added error at the higher spreads. As I've said, sports markets are mostly efficient, but not 100%.

Is there a ceiling on totals where you won't use that team in a leg of a teaser?

**durito** · 11-05-10, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Ok. Now look at NBA. How do big favorites do straight up? Separate between road and home.

Yes it's different and the market prices clearly reflect this.

**Justin7** · 11-05-10, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Is there a ceiling on totals where you won't use that team in a leg of a teaser?

In college, yes. In NFL, no.

**Justin7** · 11-05-10, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by durito

Yes it's different and the market prices clearly reflect this.

Durito,

Do you think NFL road favs of spread -7.5 to -8.5 will cover at a clip of 71% or more going forward? If yes, why?

**gangeriver** · 11-05-10, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by gangeriver

we should have tons of sportsbook, exchange and e-wallet accounts. each account should have 3000-4000$ ....
Probably a 20-22 years old bettor can't efford, on the other hand a middle age bettors may afford but he can't look after.

Originally posted by durito

With even the slightest intelligence you can turn nothing into a 5 figure roll in no time.

it seems you didn't see my previous post or you don't have a sense of humor. issue is not amount or age. I laughed because I told my idea and I said "probably" but the guy talk abut himself ummannerly
I think you should fallow well threads.Your sentence is not respectful. Also I can or I can't or I have 6 figures or 4 figures who cares?

**JustinBieber** · 11-05-10, 05:15 PM

I take it english isnt your first language

**gangeriver** · 11-05-10, 05:25 PM

congratulations.you are the first man in this forum

**skrtelfan** · 11-05-10, 05:27 PM

The home/fave discrepancy definitely seems to be reflected in the market lines, yes.

**Pancho sanza** · 11-05-10, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

The home/fave discrepancy definitely seems to be reflected in the market lines, yes.

Where?

Giants -7 ML -320 (road Fav)
Packers -7.5 ML -350 (home fav)

**MonkeyF0cker** · 11-06-10, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

I don't think all markets are ultra-efficient, but NFL, MLB and NBA are IMO.

Originally posted by Justin7

If you attack derivatives, you can hold 20%+ on medium volume.

First you make these ridiculous claims...

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

First, we go from a 20% hold on all derivatives to 4-team NFL teasers. Now, after arguing endlessly about the efficiency of the NFL market, it's really not efficient afterall? WOW!

Then you ban me for challenging you on them? You're a joke, Justin. You can't even stay consistent within one thread. Derivatives somehow turned into 4-team NFL teasers. You know damn well that nobody would interpret your statement to mean betting high variance, low EG parlays or teasers. Then you essentially retract your quote on efficiency above. Then you have the nerve to ban me for that statement? You want so badly to be admired here. It's pathetic. In the meanwhile, you're single-handedly destroying the intent of this forum and turning it into a circus. It's really a shame that Ganch isn't still around. He would never make such absurd claims and certainly wouldn't ban someone for challenging him on his claims. Sadly, the forum is yours to destroy now. Have fun doing so.

**sideloaded** · 11-06-10, 11:03 PM

How are you posting if your banned?

**MonkeyF0cker** · 11-06-10, 11:07 PM

He gave me an infraction and banned me for a day for supposedly "misquoting" him in the quoted statement above.

**Trucker George** · 11-06-10, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

He gave me an infraction and banned me for a day for supposedly "misquoting" him in the quoted statement above.

Interesting thread. Being given an infraction and getting banned for a day is unfair moderation in this case. The discussion was overall civil - never like to see someone get a muzzle strapped around their face for disagreeing.

**Justin7** · 11-07-10, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

First you make these ridiculous claims...

Then you ban me for challenging you on them? You're a joke, Justin. You can't even stay consistent within one thread. Derivatives somehow turned into 4-team NFL teasers. You know damn well that nobody would interpret your statement to mean betting high variance, low EG parlays or teasers. Then you essentially retract your quote on efficiency above. Then you have the nerve to ban me for that statement? You want so badly to be admired here. It's pathetic. In the meanwhile, you're single-handedly destroying the intent of this forum and turning it into a circus. It's really a shame that Ganch isn't still around. He would never make such absurd claims and certainly wouldn't ban someone for challenging him on his claims. Sadly, the forum is yours to destroy now. Have fun doing so.

Monkey,

I gave you a definition of derivative. Teasers are one of MANY plays that fall into that. CPs, h1 and h2 bets, props, and any combinations of these you can get fall into this. If you have a different definition, put it forth.

If you don't like a strategy because it has higher variance, discuss that. I presumed you were a bigger bettor, and are less interested in variance than EV (relative to medium volume play). If you think variance matters when your bank is 1000x a typical optimally sized bet, tell us why.

You said I "essentially retracted my quote on efficiency." I asked you politely in private to quote me with /quote/, since you are constantly misquoting me. I would once again ask you to do this, especially with these quotes you accuse me of retracting.

Most importantly, I would like you to add something relevant to this forum. All you have done thus far is misquote and attack. If you continue to attack and insult, you will not be welcome here. That is not the purpose of this forum -- it is the discussion of theory. If you disagree with my ideas, that is fine. Spell out what you disagree with, and spell out your opinion. But quit evading the issues and quit attacking.

**Justin7** · 11-07-10, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by Trucker George

Interesting thread. Being given an infraction and getting banned for a day is unfair moderation in this case. The discussion was overall civil - never like to see someone get a muzzle strapped around their face for disagreeing.

I think MonkeyFocker's quote explains it best: "And I just got banned for making fun of Justin and his ridiculous bullshit."

Disagreeing is fine (and encouraged). Insulting in HTT will cause the poster problems, as it did here.

**Data** · 11-07-10, 12:53 AM

Justin7, I have been ridiculing you for a long time too. There are posters who have been ridiculing me. It's all fun and games. You are clearly in the wrong here.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 11-07-10, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

I think MonkeyFocker's quote explains it best: "And I just got banned for making fun of Justin and his ridiculous bullshit."

Disagreeing is fine (and encouraged). Insulting in HTT will cause the poster problems, as it did here.

I posted that on ANOTHER FORUM!!! Are you serious?? Holy Christ. You're that worried about your image? Unreal.