Show Me The Odds

**Thremp** · 02-16-10, 02:43 PM

It is a paid service. I have never personally subscribed. The information is basically useless if you can watch a monitor. Well unless you want to get into some esoteric argument, where you have to prove that line movement is efficient.

**Peep** · 02-16-10, 05:22 PM

You can probably get a free week of Don Best, anyone wants to try chasing steam for a bit.

I never got into it, and the books will get pissed at you for it. Better if you can originate, create your own steam and let them chase you!

**bigbank** · 02-17-10, 02:51 AM

so are we going to see some data or not?

**Dave Head** · 02-17-10, 03:05 PM

Good idea, peep, I called Don Best at 1-800-DONBEST (no e-mail address!). They have a 7 day free trail period for "express" odds (with a 2 minute delay). Follow this link:

Don Best: What You Need To Win

https://secure.donbest.com/shop/express_pricing.html

and scroll down to "Enroll Now!" button. A credit card will be required, but the salesman told me that there is no automatic renewal.

I don't think 7 days is enough time for a fair evaluation.

Someone else who believes that chasing lines is a good idea can follow up on this. I'd be curious to see the results, but I won't put time into it. I have to agree with statnerds on this subject. If I see a line that I like, I'll take it now. I'm not waiting for it to turn against me.

Maybe I gave Thremp too much attitude (sorry about that). But seriously, all this talk about chasing lines reminds me of those guys in high school who sat in the back and couldn't pass a test without cheating off each other. It's like saying "I don't know how to handicap, so I'll let the market tell me what to do." If I'm missing something here, please tell me.

**Peep** · 02-17-10, 03:37 PM

Don Best is good that way, if you get the free product they do not pressure you to sign up again. No phone calls, no nothing, they just let you expire.

I got the free product a few years back. I bought Don Best for a few months last year, they still did have my information on file and just activated it and charged me. I bought it for three months, then let it expire. Again, no pressure to continue.

I am using Sportsoptions this year, similar to Don Best, and I am happy with it. Half the price too.

**durito** · 02-17-10, 03:43 PM

It's like saying "I don't know how to handicap, so I'll let the market tell me what to do." If I'm missing something here, please tell me.

Yes, handicapping is mostly a waste of time.

I have to agree with statnerds on this subject.

About what? That the gambling market is efficient? Then how did I get all this crap.

**Dave Head** · 02-17-10, 03:57 PM

Hi durito,

I agree with statnerds that "chasing line moves is ridiculous".

I did not say that the gambling market is efficient.

You're right, my statement was ambiguous.

**donjuan** · 02-17-10, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by Dave Head

Hi durito,

I agree with statnerds that "chasing line moves is ridiculous".

I did not say that the gambling market is efficient.

You're right, my statement was ambiguous.

Feel free to tell us why books ban/cut limits if you do it then.

**Dave Head** · 02-17-10, 08:31 PM

Hi donjuan,

Originally posted by donjuan

Feel free to tell us why books ban/cut limits if you do it then.

I don't know for a fact (you'll have to ask them), but here's my guess: The books don't want to take positions, they're trying to balance their action. So when the herd psychology (no offense) among bettors takes over, the books try to stop the stampede. That doesn't mean the line is moving in the right direction, it just means that the books are trying to limit their exposure.

It's like asking "Why does a bank need FDIC insurance if it's solvent?" To cover their exposure to the herd psychology.

I know, it's not a great analogy. Spare me.

**Dave Head** · 02-17-10, 08:59 PM

Hi durito,

A funny thought just occured to me.

Originally posted by durito

About what? That the gambling market is efficient? Then how did I get all this crap.

I infered from your comment that you believe that the gambling market is inefficient (however you want to define "inefficient").

There is some rational for "tailing" an efficient market, hoping the line moves toward the actual outcome. But wouldn't it be foolish to chase a line in an inefficient market? After all, the line in an inefficient market could go anywhere?

None of us would be on this thread if we didn't believe that there were market inefficiencies to exploit.

**smitch124** · 02-17-10, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by Dave Head

Hi donjuan,

I don't know for a fact (you'll have to ask them), but here's my guess: The books don't want to take positions, they're trying to balance their action. So when the herd psychology (no offense) among bettors takes over, the books try to stop the stampede. That doesn't mean the line is moving in the right direction, it just means that the books are trying to limit their exposure.

It's like asking "Why does a bank need FDIC insurance if it's solvent?" To cover their exposure to the herd psychology.

I know, it's not a great analogy. Spare me.

I think you are reaching here, the books are only gonna limit and boot winners. Why boot or limit someone who is losing money?

**donjuan** · 02-18-10, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by Dave Head

Hi donjuan,

I don't know for a fact (you'll have to ask them), but here's my guess: The books don't want to take positions, they're trying to balance their action. So when the herd psychology (no offense) among bettors takes over, the books try to stop the stampede. That doesn't mean the line is moving in the right direction, it just means that the books are trying to limit their exposure.

It's like asking "Why does a bank need FDIC insurance if it's solvent?" To cover their exposure to the herd psychology.

I know, it's not a great analogy. Spare me.

Here is the fact. Chasing steam has +ev. If it was about preventing "herd mentality", books like SIA and Bodog would cut limits on their most square bettors. Is every line move at Pinnacle in the right direction? No. But most are (the ones that aren't generally get pushed back) and they are enough to show a profit over time. This is why books hate people chasing steam.

**donjuan** · 02-18-10, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by Dave Head

Hi durito,

A funny thought just occured to me.

I infered from your comment that you believe that the gambling market is inefficient (however you want to define "inefficient").

There is some rational for "tailing" an efficient market, hoping the line moves toward the actual outcome. But wouldn't it be foolish to chase a line in an inefficient market? After all, the line in an inefficient market could go anywhere?

None of us would be on this thread if we didn't believe that there were market inefficiencies to exploit.

Efficiency at books like Pinny and Matchbook does not mean efficiency at every book out there, especially at rec books.

**20Four7** · 02-18-10, 06:14 AM

Look at when you arb between pinny/MB and XXX book. Where do the winnings go. They go to XXX book usually why? because the line was off market and you win. Pinny doesn't boot arber's because they lose to them. Bet365 boots arbers because they have off lines and are winners there.

durito what stuff do you have? I am missing stuff LOL.

**Johnny 55** · 02-18-10, 07:04 AM

Almost every thread in the think tank revolves around the continuing battle between the idiots/dinosaurs who naively think that by watching games and analyzing stats they have a discernible edge over an establishment that has access to a million times more information and plays with a buildt in vig edge and the people who understand how markets work and use that info to their advantage. Guess who makes money and who doesnt.

**durito** · 02-18-10, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by smitch124

I think you are reaching here, the books are only gonna limit and boot winners. Why boot or limit someone who is losing money?

Because if they are getting good numbers they are eventually going to win.

**durito** · 02-18-10, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by Dave Head

Hi durito,

A funny thought just occured to me.

I infered from your comment that you believe that the gambling market is inefficient (however you want to define "inefficient").

There is some rational for "tailing" an efficient market, hoping the line moves toward the actual outcome. But wouldn't it be foolish to chase a line in an inefficient market? After all, the line in an inefficient market could go anywhere?

None of us would be on this thread if we didn't believe that there were market inefficiencies to exploit.

In major gambling markets lines tend to move towards fair value.

**ShowMeTheOdds** · 02-18-10, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Peep

You can probably get a free week of Don Best, anyone wants to try chasing steam for a bit.

I never got into it, and the books will get pissed at you for it. Better if you can originate, create your own steam and let them chase you!

It would be great if a forum regular would take these companies up on their free trials and compare against us.

Take any of the "paid delayed" services and comare to our "free real-time" service. Would you still be willing to pay them $99/mo. for their service or would you prefer our free service?

**Johnny 55** · 02-18-10, 10:14 AM

Show Me The Odds-

I think you have a nice service. Here is my complaint. The free SBR Lines model is so much easier to read and navigate, which makes it a million times easier to use. I personally hate to see the total and side listed in the same box and I also hate the style that has the odds for only one team. I cant speak for others but I cant use your service, I always use SBR Lines because the graphics and structure is so much better.

**ShowMeTheOdds** · 02-18-10, 10:35 AM

Johnny, thanks for the input. Nobody is doubting that SBROdds is a great service. It is easy, free and convenient because it is webbased.

Our downloadable version gives users much more customization options and will always be able to deliver a faster line. Add to that our injury alerts, syndicate plays and system plays and it is just slightly more advanced than what a webbased system can provide. However, if SBR is good enough for you, by all means use it.

I am going to take your input however and see if we can add different views into our software to either show the lines as we have them now, or give the options to show odds for both teams. When utilizing a premium odds service speed is key. Having the ability to see both sets of lines (sides and total) saves time which is the most important thing for some professionals. Most of the time they will know the takebacks, or if team A is -9, it is pretty much known that team B is +9. Just the way we have always done it. But thank you for the input, hopefully we can incorporate that into our service in the future.

**Tomato** · 02-18-10, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by 20Four7

Look at when you arb between pinny/MB and XXX book. Where do the winnings go. They go to XXX book usually why? because the line was off market and you win. Pinny doesn't boot arber's because they lose to them. Bet365 boots arbers because they have off lines and are winners there.

durito what stuff do you have? I am missing stuff LOL.

Yes.

**mintybetmachine** · 02-18-10, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by Johnny 55

Show Me The Odds-

I think you have a nice service. Here is my complaint. The free SBR Lines model is so much easier to read and navigate, which makes it a million times easier to use. I personally hate to see the total and side listed in the same box and I also hate the style that has the odds for only one team. I cant speak for others but I cant use your service, I always use SBR Lines because the graphics and structure is so much better.

I second the graphic improvements.

Also when I tried your product there are occasionally dead streams where a random book isn't updating for a random game. This is very annoying and made me drop your product as I would see an opportunity to steam/middle only to glance at another line service and find out that this opportunity does not exist.

**statnerds** · 02-18-10, 01:10 PM

if you just give fools enough rope they will eventually hang themselves. i got bashed for suggesting the value of selling points on NFL games by several of the same posters bashing me in this thread. that thread the bashing was based on my lack of knowledge on the extreme value of a half point.

but yet here we have the same people saying how wonderful it is to chase line movements?

hmmm. seems those two ideas are contradictory in nature. you are reacting after the line has moved. by definition you have already lost value. the further the line moves from the number, the more value you are losing while still laying -110. you cannot have it both ways. either it is wise and profitable to beat the closing line or it is more profitable to bet after the line has been steamed and you miss out on the value left behind. you can't preach the importance of a half point on a line and then turn around and say it is okay to place a bet after the line has moved 1 or 2 points. please take a position and stand by it. furthermore, in this scenario, to maximize value you would need to get the bet in as quickly as possible once the line begins to move. how are you going to determine the source of the move in a limited amount of time? sharp money? whale? injury report? sharps starting a small move to get a better line on the other side?

there is no easy recipe for success. there are no shortcuts.

i can save you tons of money and time. watch the CBB Totals between 5:30 and 6:30 cause RAS is going to move those fukkers.

this argument will never end because your side will NEVER produce DATA.

**statnerds** · 02-18-10, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

He pointed you to a source that has proven that tracking line moves in certain situations is a long term winner. Coming from someone as respected as Thremp, that should be good enough.

every piece of information offered should be questioned, regardless of the source. i am not attacking you sir, have no idea who you are and have nothing to gain, but that is horrible advice. every bettor on this site should be encouraged to research and discover data on their own. unless, of course, the source is confident enough to produce the data on their own, which just never seems to happen here on SBR.

**donjuan** · 02-18-10, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

if you just give fools enough rope they will eventually hang themselves. i got bashed for suggesting the value of selling points on NFL games by several of the same posters bashing me in this thread. that thread the bashing was based on my lack of knowledge on the extreme value of a half point.

but yet here we have the same people saying how wonderful it is to chase line movements?

hmmm. seems those two ideas are contradictory in nature. you are reacting after the line has moved. by definition you have already lost value. the further the line moves from the number, the more value you are losing while still laying -110. you cannot have it both ways. either it is wise and profitable to beat the closing line or it is more profitable to bet after the line has been steamed and you miss out on the value left behind. you can't preach the importance of a half point on a line and then turn around and say it is okay to place a bet after the line has moved 1 or 2 points. please take a position and stand by it. furthermore, in this scenario, to maximize value you would need to get the bet in as quickly as possible once the line begins to move. how are you going to determine the source of the move in a limited amount of time? sharp money? whale? injury report? sharps starting a small move to get a better line on the other side?

there is no easy recipe for success. there are no shortcuts.

i can save you tons of money and time. watch the CBB Totals between 5:30 and 6:30 cause RAS is going to move those fukkers.

this argument will never end because your side will NEVER produce DATA.

Seriously, you need to read more and post less. You have an insane knack for misusing and misunderstanding gambling terms and making false statements. Steam chasing or "chasing line moves" as you call it, is about betting the old number at a book that has been slow to move. For example, Pinny moves an NCAAB game from -3 (flat) to -4.5 (flat). You don't bet the -4.5, you look for a -3 or even -3.5 at a book that has been slow to move.

**Thremp** · 02-18-10, 03:41 PM

statnerds,

You deny I provided data. Which part do I not suffice that 1) DonBest does not put out steam bets or 2) that they do not win?

**durito** · 02-18-10, 04:00 PM

Said data is easy to be had. Compare the mean square error of the opening lines versus the closing lines.

Meanwhile I will be obtaining more crap.

**durito** · 02-18-10, 04:02 PM

watch the CBB Totals between 5:30 and 6:30 cause RAS is going to move those fukkers.

What exactly is your point here? Playing RAS before they move is essentially chasing steam.

He is an advantage totals player. They move for a reason. Bet them before the move and you will do quite well. You will also get kicked out of every book there is. PLaying RAS is considered chasing steam by every book out there.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 02-18-10, 04:06 PM

This thread has become soooooo entertaining.

**roasthawg** · 02-18-10, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by durito

In major gambling markets lines tend to move towards fair value.

Why is this? Do the books intentionally open with an off number?

**durito** · 02-18-10, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by roasthawg

Why is this? Do the books intentionally open with an off number?

The market as a whole is sharper than the opening books.

**donjuan** · 02-18-10, 04:12 PM

Why is this? Do the books intentionally open with an off number?

Market smarter than the books.

**roasthawg** · 02-18-10, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by durito

The market as a whole is sharper than the opening books.

This is what I don't agree with... it's not overly hard to come up with a fair number. When I'm finding +ev plays everyday by coming up with my own number there has to be a better reason than my number is sharper than the books'.

**Thremp** · 02-18-10, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by roasthawg

This is what I don't agree with... it's not overly hard to come up with a fair number. When I'm finding +ev plays everyday by coming up with my own number there has to be a better reason than my number is sharper than the books'.

No. There doesn't. Have you even checked if your picks beat the market or don't?

**roasthawg** · 02-18-10, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

No. There doesn't. Have you even checked if your picks beat the market or don't?

I don't track this because I'm trying to pick winners, not beat the market price. For me these are separate issues (although I realize many on this site disagree vehemently). The majority of stuff in my db's is based around finding off numbers... not beating the closing line. I know a lot of people on here swear if you don't beat the closing line you can't win so maybe I'm beating it... I am definitely winning. 3+ years of it so far with 1,000's of plays.

I don't wanna talk about me personally though so much as the books and their lines... I'm using pretty widely available info to come up with my numbers and I assume most others are too. There's just no way the books can't come up with a number closer to 50% than they do... I mean even a 52% number kills the player's advantage for the most part. Are their lines set strictly to get balanced action (meaning they're lines are meant to attract 50% of the money on either side rather than to win/lose 50% of the time)? Or are they gambling themselves knowing that the public will pick the wrong side and they only move the line back when they're forced too?