Dexter - 2012/2013 NCAAF Plays

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  • Dexter
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 12-24-08
    • 25829

    #526
    Originally posted by Dexter
    MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

    (2u) Boise St -5
    (1u) Under Boise St/Washington 45
    (4u) Washington +5

    This line move is very telling considering 60% of the public is on Boise. The Pac12 is one of the better conferences ATS in bowl games and i always love dogs getting the odd number of 5. Washington was a solid 63% as underdogs this year over an 8 game sample, so although i hate to switch my bets this makes too much sense to me.
    Comment
    • Dexter
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-24-08
      • 25829

      #527
      what a disaster - thats 0 for 3 now when reducing the size of a play or going the complete other way.

      like a true square, i made RLM influence my bet......never again this bowl season will i reduce a play or go the other way.

      once again i get buried my boise in a bowl game

      now i am about 14% career on SBR when doing a writeup.....
      Comment
      • iceman8847
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 12-16-08
        • 526

        #528
        Dex , this game isn't over Washington will come back.
        Comment
        • Dexter
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-24-08
          • 25829

          #529
          Originally posted by iceman8847
          Dex , this game isn't over Washington will come back.
          this kid price is a disaster....i can smell a poor decision to turn the game even if wash is covering at some point.
          Comment
          • iceman8847
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 12-16-08
            • 526

            #530
            Washington will win this game outright 2nd half will be a different game Washington's D will shut Boise down
            Comment
            • Dexter
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-24-08
              • 25829

              #531
              price - what a qb....his stud TE wide open for 6 down the middle and he misses him...
              Comment
              • Donkeys2012
                SBR MVP
                • 01-11-12
                • 2771

                #532
                That was not a first down on the sneak and no measurement WTF was that
                Comment
                • Dexter
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-24-08
                  • 25829

                  #533
                  Originally posted by Donkeys2012
                  That was not a first down on the sneak and no measurement WTF was that
                  how do they not even measure that? amazing....
                  Comment
                  • Donkeys2012
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-11-12
                    • 2771

                    #534
                    Originally posted by Dexter
                    how do they not even measure that? amazing....
                    He was short no question to not measure or review it is very sketchy
                    Comment
                    • iceman8847
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 12-16-08
                      • 526

                      #535
                      Dex thanks for the Pts sorry about the no outright win but we covered and that's all that matters
                      Comment
                      • Dexter
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 25829

                        #536
                        Originally posted by iceman8847
                        Dex thanks for the Pts sorry about the no outright win but we covered and that's all that matters
                        i didnt have the ML.....dont care that wash lost.

                        thank god that didnt backfire on me....
                        Comment
                        • Dexter
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-24-08
                          • 25829

                          #537
                          Originally posted by Dexter
                          Bowls Week 1: 3-0 (+4.8u)
                          YTD: 179-163 (+21.05u)
                          Bowls Week 2: 3-4 (-1u)
                          Bowls YTD: 6-4 (+3.8u)
                          Overall YTD: 182-167 (+20.05u)
                          Comment
                          • Dexter
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-24-08
                            • 25829

                            #538
                            Originally posted by Dexter
                            Monday 12/24:

                            Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

                            (2u) Fresno St -12
                            (2u) Over Fresno St/SMU 59
                            Originally posted by Dexter
                            Friday 12/28:

                            AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

                            (1u) UL Monroe -7
                            Originally posted by Dexter

                            (2u) Duke +7.5
                            Originally posted by Dexter
                            (1u) UCLA -110 (2u total)
                            Originally posted by Dexter
                            Thursday 12/27:

                            Belk Bowl

                            (2u) Over Cincinnati/Duke 58

                            Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

                            (5u) Over Baylor/UCLA 78
                            Originally posted by Dexter

                            (1u) UCLA -110
                            Originally posted by Dexter
                            Saturday 12/29:

                            Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

                            (1u) Rice +1

                            New Era Pinstripe Bowl

                            (5u) Syracuse +4.5

                            Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

                            (1u) Under TCU/Michigan St 41
                            Plays so far for Week 3 of Bowl Season from 12/24-12/30. Still have a few more i am waiting on...
                            Comment
                            • Dexter
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-24-08
                              • 25829

                              #539
                              Originally posted by Dexter
                              Monday 12/24:

                              Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

                              (2u) Fresno St -12
                              (2u) Over Fresno St/SMU 59
                              With this being the only game (all sports) on the card for Christmas Eve, I just dont see both public plays (Fresno, Over) cashing. I am going the other way here for a few reasons: June Jones knows Hawaii and i expect him to be able to prepare his team for this game better then 1st year Fresno coach Tim Deruyter. First year coaches also have a horrific bowl ATS record for whatever reason. Following that angle alone would have you 2-0 so far with Nevada and Utah St covering vs 1st year coaches for Arizona and Toledo.
                              The total for this game is somewhat scaring me being stuck right under a 60 number. If i see this start moving down towards 58 i may also have to take the under and just side with the books tomorrow night. I just dont see Vegas giving out free presents on Christmas Eve. The Mountain West is 1-2 ATS in Bowls so far, and the other favorite (Boise) could not cover their number. SMU has played some tough teams this year and i think this line is inflated due to Fresno's phenomenal ATS record. The last time Jones had SMU in this Bowl (2009) they won outright as double digit dogs.

                              (3.5u) SMU +12
                              (1u) Over Fresno/SMU 60
                              (1u) Over Fresno/SMU 61
                              Comment
                              • breakingbad
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 08-06-10
                                • 102

                                #540
                                Originally posted by Dexter
                                With this being the only game (all sports) on the card for Christmas Eve, I just dont see both public plays (Fresno, Over) cashing. I am going the other way here for a few reasons: June Jones knows Hawaii and i expect him to be able to prepare his team for this game better then 1st year Fresno coach Tim Deruyter. First year coaches also have a horrific bowl ATS record for whatever reason. Following that angle alone would have you 2-0 so far with Nevada and Utah St covering vs 1st year coaches for Arizona and Toledo.
                                The total for this game is somewhat scaring me being stuck right under a 60 number. If i see this start moving down towards 58 i may also have to take the under and just side with the books tomorrow night. I just dont see Vegas giving out free presents on Christmas Eve. The Mountain West is 1-2 ATS in Bowls so far, and the other favorite (Boise) could not cover their number. SMU has played some tough teams this year and i think this line is inflated due to Fresno's phenomenal ATS record. The last time Jones had SMU in this Bowl (2009) they won outright as double digit dogs.

                                (3.5u) SMU +12
                                So net 1.5 on smu Dex?
                                Comment
                                • Dexter
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-24-08
                                  • 25829

                                  #541
                                  Originally posted by breakingbad
                                  So net 1.5 on smu Dex?
                                  correct
                                  Comment
                                  • Bs1194
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-10-10
                                    • 1025

                                    #542
                                    Don't you forget who's the QB for SMU.
                                    Comment
                                    • fly fisher
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-25-10
                                      • 2587

                                      #543
                                      my book has SMU +12.5 and over 61, so I am going to stick with my over 59 (1.5x) and Fresno at -12(1.5x). I did tease the over 54 and SMU + 19 though (1.5x). Probably an idiot, but also teased Fresno at -6.5 and over 55 (1.5x) and bought SMU +14 (1.4x for 1x). Hoping for an xmas eve middle. I like the idea of June Jones coming back to Hawaii, so looking for SMU to score at least 24-28 and let Fresno do their thing. I know the over for MWC hasn't hit, but things are crazy in Hawaii so might see a bit more scoring, but as always just a gut feeling so nothing of worth to think I am right.

                                      Good luck Dex and thanks for the basketball wins and the football wins.
                                      Comment
                                      • Dexter
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-24-08
                                        • 25829

                                        #544
                                        Originally posted by Bs1194
                                        Don't you forget who's the QB for SMU.
                                        did gilbert screw us at some point in the past or are you recalling his turnovers in the BCS game?
                                        Comment
                                        • Dexter
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-24-08
                                          • 25829

                                          #545
                                          i added 2 units to over 60/61 in above post
                                          Comment
                                          • Bs1194
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-10-10
                                            • 1025

                                            #546
                                            Originally posted by Dexter
                                            did gilbert screw us at some point in the past or are you recalling his turnovers in the BCS game?
                                            Just a butt hurt longhorn season ticket holder that watched the Gatorade National Player of the Year play a lot of terrible football. Had some bad games this year in the beginning,(like 5 int 0 td games), but I haven't kept up toward the end. But something is working for the team, they made a bowl.
                                            Comment
                                            • Dexter
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-24-08
                                              • 25829

                                              #547
                                              Out for the night - Merry Christmas all.....added another unit to the over. so 4u total on over 59,60,61 and 1.5u on smu. not liking the fact that sk feels strongly about fresno so wanted to really separate my side and total.
                                              Comment
                                              • Trivial
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-22-09
                                                • 1328

                                                #548
                                                Merry Christmas Dex. All the very best to you and your loved ones! Let's get this tonight!
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #549
                                                  i again made the right move on switching my play - just wish i had done the same with the under. i had a feeling that was the right play with how this just hung on such a juicy # of 59 for so long. when i saw the total go up today i decided to add to the over just for pure action purposes on a holiday. the move today on fresno/over was simply the public doing its thing on gameday. i knew that smu was a huddled up/short passing team. to take smu and over made no sense. smu correlated with the under as fresno did with the over. saved myself about 1.5u by making the changes from my original play...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Vinnie Paz
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-27-12
                                                    • 12177

                                                    #550
                                                    What would you say is the cutoff for that Baylor ucla over? I'm seeing 80, too late to the party or still worth a play at 5x?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dexter
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                      • 25829

                                                      #551
                                                      Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
                                                      What would you say is the cutoff for that Baylor ucla over? I'm seeing 80, too late to the party or still worth a play at 5x?
                                                      i think 80 is still fine for a big play. whats the price on buying down to 79.5?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dexter
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 25829

                                                        #552
                                                        Wednesday 12/26:

                                                        Little Caesars Bowl

                                                        (2u) Western Kentucky -5.5
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ljohnso8
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 12-25-12
                                                          • 21

                                                          #553
                                                          Hey dex looks like there is a couple suspended players for CMU in this game. However, what do u think about the over on this play? Nice call on SDSU tonight
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #554
                                                            Originally posted by ljohnso8
                                                            Hey dex looks like there is a couple suspended players for CMU in this game. However, what do u think about the over on this play? Nice call on SDSU tonight
                                                            i like under if anything.....c.michigan is one of those teams that does a no huddle, goes up to the line then turns around waiting for the play...end up snapping the ball with 1-5 seconds...each team features a star RB so i expect this game to be filled with run plays...both of these teams played to the over a lot, this game is indoors yet the total is <60? smells a little fishy so no play for me...i like w. kentucky to dominate so just sticking with that for 2x
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Dexter
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 12-24-08
                                                              • 25829

                                                              #555
                                                              damn you ljohns - now you're making me want to take the under...haha
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ljohnso8
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 12-25-12
                                                                • 21

                                                                #556
                                                                Exactly from what i have been reading it does seem that both teams have star running backs. My only problem with this is that it seems CMU has no defense. I would be afraid of playing the under in case that that WKU places huge numbers due to the lack of defense from CMU. I have my bookie at 57 1/2. It also seems that most of their games have gone over. However, I was quite wrong with the FSU vs SMU game so I have been obviously been proven wrong hahaha. Personally I will play WKU -6 and maybe have a small play on the under it will be a late decision will follow the line. Thanks for your input.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • jinxpro13
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-31-12
                                                                  • 1434

                                                                  #557
                                                                  sup dex, thoughts on the kentucky pick?
                                                                  with the game so isolated im tempted to side with vegas & go with dog. even noticed it reverse and move down to 5 yesterday for awhile. back up now tho.
                                                                  also being played in michigan.
                                                                  on the 1st half under and full game under as welll.
                                                                  gl bro
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dexter
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                                    • 25829

                                                                    #558
                                                                    Originally posted by jinxpro13
                                                                    sup dex, thoughts on the kentucky pick?
                                                                    with the game so isolated im tempted to side with vegas & go with dog. even noticed it reverse and move down to 5 yesterday for awhile. back up now tho.
                                                                    on the 1st half under and full game under as welll.
                                                                    gl bro
                                                                    i dont view it as being isolated the way smu/fresno was b/c there still is a full slate of nba games tomorrow.
                                                                    the mac has historically been one of the worst conferences ats in bowl games (around 45%) and this year they are 0-2 su/ats so far. first bowl appearance for w. kentucky should have them beyond motivated and they actually are covering machines away from home. antonio andrews leads the nation in all purpose yards and c. michigan is not exactly a team built to stop him...i usually fade interim coaches in bowl games but the players know the direction their program is headed with petrino announced as the new head coach. the interim coach guidry guided miami ohio to a bowl win last year as interim. c. michigan lost its best defensive player a few weeks ago - its funny how you only hear of star offensive players that are out, questionable etc....this kid had 12 sacks for them and its a big blow not having him. i believe w. kent is pretty decent against the run, so hopefully that forces the c. mich qb into some mistakes. ullafayette represented the sun belt nicely vs e. carolina so that has me a little more confident as well..
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • jinxpro13
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-31-12
                                                                      • 1434

                                                                      #559
                                                                      Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                      i dont view it as being isolated the way smu/fresno was b/c there still is a full slate of nba games tomorrow.
                                                                      the mac has historically been one of the worst conferences ats in bowl games (around 45%) and this year they are 0-2 su/ats so far. first bowl appearance for w. kentucky should have them beyond motivated and they actually are covering machines away from home. antonio andrews leads the nation in all purpose yards and c. michigan is not exactly a team built to stop him...i usually fade interim coaches in bowl games but the players know the direction their program is headed with petrino announced as the new head coach. the interim coach guidry guided miami ohio to a bowl win last year as interim. c. michigan lost its best defensive player a few weeks ago - its funny how you only hear of star offensive players that are out, questionable etc....this kid had 12 sacks for them and its a big blow not having him. i believe w. kent is pretty decent against the run, so hopefully that forces the c. mich qb into some mistakes. ullafayette represented the sun belt nicely vs e. carolina so that has me a little more confident as well..
                                                                      appreciate the analysis.. make some nice points. only real thing i argue here is the lack of isolation of the game. when push comes to shove my guess is nobody gives a shit about NBA. Wouldn't be surprised if the bowl game collected more money in bets than all NBA games combined tonight. up in Canada, if you aren't betting online, it's hard to find anywhere to even bet NBA.
                                                                      trust me dude, this game is almost as isolated as it gets and vegas is asking for w.kentucky $$ right now.
                                                                      it is what it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see w.kentucky win easily..
                                                                      thankss again and GL dex
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Dmoneytx
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 02-09-12
                                                                        • 6450

                                                                        #560
                                                                        Thanks for the insight on the WKU/CMU game Dexter. I really like what u laid out there, appreciate the opinion greatly.
                                                                        Comment
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