Dexter - 2012/2013 NCAAF Plays

[Dexter]

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

(2u) Boise St -5
(1u) Under Boise St/Washington 45

(4u) Washington +5

This line move is very telling considering 60% of the public is on Boise. The Pac12 is one of the better conferences ATS in bowl games and i always love dogs getting the odd number of 5. Washington was a solid 63% as underdogs this year over an 8 game sample, so although i hate to switch my bets this makes too much sense to me.

[Dexter]

what a disaster - thats 0 for 3 now when reducing the size of a play or going the complete other way.

like a true square, i made RLM influence my bet......never again this bowl season will i reduce a play or go the other way.

once again i get buried my boise in a bowl game

now i am about 14% career on SBR when doing a writeup.....

[iceman8847]

Dex , this game isn't over Washington will come back.

[Dexter]

Dex , this game isn't over Washington will come back.

this kid price is a disaster....i can smell a poor decision to turn the game even if wash is covering at some point.

[iceman8847]

Washington will win this game outright 2nd half will be a different game Washington's D will shut Boise down

[Dexter]

price - what a qb....his stud TE wide open for 6 down the middle and he misses him...

[Donkeys2012]

That was not a first down on the sneak and no measurement WTF was that

[Dexter]

That was not a first down on the sneak and no measurement WTF was that

how do they not even measure that? amazing....

[Donkeys2012]

how do they not even measure that? amazing....

He was short no question to not measure or review it is very sketchy

[iceman8847]

Dex thanks for the Pts sorry about the no outright win but we covered and that's all that matters

[Dexter]

Dex thanks for the Pts sorry about the no outright win but we covered and that's all that matters

i didnt have the ML.....dont care that wash lost.

thank god that didnt backfire on me....

[Dexter]

Bowls Week 1: 3-0 (+4.8u)
YTD: 179-163 (+21.05u)

Bowls Week 2: 3-4 (-1u)
Bowls YTD: 6-4 (+3.8u)
Overall YTD: 182-167 (+20.05u)

[Dexter]

Monday 12/24:

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

(2u) Fresno St -12
(2u) Over Fresno St/SMU 59

Friday 12/28:

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

(1u) UL Monroe -7

(2u) Duke +7.5

(1u) UCLA -110 (2u total)

Thursday 12/27:

Belk Bowl

(2u) Over Cincinnati/Duke 58

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

(5u) Over Baylor/UCLA 78

(1u) UCLA -110

Saturday 12/29:

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

(1u) Rice +1

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

(5u) Syracuse +4.5

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

(1u) Under TCU/Michigan St 41

Plays so far for Week 3 of Bowl Season from 12/24-12/30. Still have a few more i am waiting on...

[Dexter]

Monday 12/24:

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

(2u) Fresno St -12
(2u) Over Fresno St/SMU 59

With this being the only game (all sports) on the card for Christmas Eve, I just dont see both public plays (Fresno, Over) cashing. I am going the other way here for a few reasons: June Jones knows Hawaii and i expect him to be able to prepare his team for this game better then 1st year Fresno coach Tim Deruyter. First year coaches also have a horrific bowl ATS record for whatever reason. Following that angle alone would have you 2-0 so far with Nevada and Utah St covering vs 1st year coaches for Arizona and Toledo.
The total for this game is somewhat scaring me being stuck right under a 60 number. If i see this start moving down towards 58 i may also have to take the under and just side with the books tomorrow night. I just dont see Vegas giving out free presents on Christmas Eve. The Mountain West is 1-2 ATS in Bowls so far, and the other favorite (Boise) could not cover their number. SMU has played some tough teams this year and i think this line is inflated due to Fresno's phenomenal ATS record. The last time Jones had SMU in this Bowl (2009) they won outright as double digit dogs.

(3.5u) SMU +12
(1u) Over Fresno/SMU 60
(1u) Over Fresno/SMU 61

[breakingbad]

With this being the only game (all sports) on the card for Christmas Eve, I just dont see both public plays (Fresno, Over) cashing. I am going the other way here for a few reasons: June Jones knows Hawaii and i expect him to be able to prepare his team for this game better then 1st year Fresno coach Tim Deruyter. First year coaches also have a horrific bowl ATS record for whatever reason. Following that angle alone would have you 2-0 so far with Nevada and Utah St covering vs 1st year coaches for Arizona and Toledo.
The total for this game is somewhat scaring me being stuck right under a 60 number. If i see this start moving down towards 58 i may also have to take the under and just side with the books tomorrow night. I just dont see Vegas giving out free presents on Christmas Eve. The Mountain West is 1-2 ATS in Bowls so far, and the other favorite (Boise) could not cover their number. SMU has played some tough teams this year and i think this line is inflated due to Fresno's phenomenal ATS record. The last time Jones had SMU in this Bowl (2009) they won outright as double digit dogs.

(3.5u) SMU +12

So net 1.5 on smu Dex?

[Dexter]

So net 1.5 on smu Dex?

correct

[Bs1194]

Don't you forget who's the QB for SMU.

[fly fisher]

my book has SMU +12.5 and over 61, so I am going to stick with my over 59 (1.5x) and Fresno at -12(1.5x). I did tease the over 54 and SMU + 19 though (1.5x). Probably an idiot, but also teased Fresno at -6.5 and over 55 (1.5x) and bought SMU +14 (1.4x for 1x). Hoping for an xmas eve middle. I like the idea of June Jones coming back to Hawaii, so looking for SMU to score at least 24-28 and let Fresno do their thing. I know the over for MWC hasn't hit, but things are crazy in Hawaii so might see a bit more scoring, but as always just a gut feeling so nothing of worth to think I am right.

Good luck Dex and thanks for the basketball wins and the football wins.

[Dexter]

Don't you forget who's the QB for SMU.

did gilbert screw us at some point in the past or are you recalling his turnovers in the BCS game?

[Dexter]

i added 2 units to over 60/61 in above post

[Bs1194]

did gilbert screw us at some point in the past or are you recalling his turnovers in the BCS game?

Just a butt hurt longhorn season ticket holder that watched the Gatorade National Player of the Year play a lot of terrible football. Had some bad games this year in the beginning,(like 5 int 0 td games), but I haven't kept up toward the end. But something is working for the team, they made a bowl.

[Dexter]

Out for the night - Merry Christmas all.....added another unit to the over. so 4u total on over 59,60,61 and 1.5u on smu. not liking the fact that sk feels strongly about fresno so wanted to really separate my side and total.

[Trivial]

Merry Christmas Dex. All the very best to you and your loved ones! Let's get this tonight!

[Dexter]

i again made the right move on switching my play - just wish i had done the same with the under. i had a feeling that was the right play with how this just hung on such a juicy # of 59 for so long. when i saw the total go up today i decided to add to the over just for pure action purposes on a holiday. the move today on fresno/over was simply the public doing its thing on gameday. i knew that smu was a huddled up/short passing team. to take smu and over made no sense. smu correlated with the under as fresno did with the over. saved myself about 1.5u by making the changes from my original play...

[Vinnie Paz]

What would you say is the cutoff for that Baylor ucla over? I'm seeing 80, too late to the party or still worth a play at 5x?

[Dexter]

What would you say is the cutoff for that Baylor ucla over? I'm seeing 80, too late to the party or still worth a play at 5x?

i think 80 is still fine for a big play. whats the price on buying down to 79.5?

[Dexter]

Wednesday 12/26:

Little Caesars Bowl

(2u) Western Kentucky -5.5

[ljohnso8]

Hey dex looks like there is a couple suspended players for CMU in this game. However, what do u think about the over on this play? Nice call on SDSU tonight

[Dexter]

Hey dex looks like there is a couple suspended players for CMU in this game. However, what do u think about the over on this play? Nice call on SDSU tonight

i like under if anything.....c.michigan is one of those teams that does a no huddle, goes up to the line then turns around waiting for the play...end up snapping the ball with 1-5 seconds...each team features a star RB so i expect this game to be filled with run plays...both of these teams played to the over a lot, this game is indoors yet the total is <60? smells a little fishy so no play for me...i like w. kentucky to dominate so just sticking with that for 2x

[Dexter]

damn you ljohns - now you're making me want to take the under...haha

[ljohnso8]

Exactly from what i have been reading it does seem that both teams have star running backs. My only problem with this is that it seems CMU has no defense. I would be afraid of playing the under in case that that WKU places huge numbers due to the lack of defense from CMU. I have my bookie at 57 1/2. It also seems that most of their games have gone over. However, I was quite wrong with the FSU vs SMU game so I have been obviously been proven wrong hahaha. Personally I will play WKU -6 and maybe have a small play on the under it will be a late decision will follow the line. Thanks for your input.

[jinxpro13]

sup dex, thoughts on the kentucky pick?
with the game so isolated im tempted to side with vegas & go with dog. even noticed it reverse and move down to 5 yesterday for awhile. back up now tho.
also being played in michigan.
on the 1st half under and full game under as welll.
gl bro

[Dexter]

sup dex, thoughts on the kentucky pick?
with the game so isolated im tempted to side with vegas & go with dog. even noticed it reverse and move down to 5 yesterday for awhile. back up now tho.
on the 1st half under and full game under as welll.
gl bro

i dont view it as being isolated the way smu/fresno was b/c there still is a full slate of nba games tomorrow.
the mac has historically been one of the worst conferences ats in bowl games (around 45%) and this year they are 0-2 su/ats so far. first bowl appearance for w. kentucky should have them beyond motivated and they actually are covering machines away from home. antonio andrews leads the nation in all purpose yards and c. michigan is not exactly a team built to stop him...i usually fade interim coaches in bowl games but the players know the direction their program is headed with petrino announced as the new head coach. the interim coach guidry guided miami ohio to a bowl win last year as interim. c. michigan lost its best defensive player a few weeks ago - its funny how you only hear of star offensive players that are out, questionable etc....this kid had 12 sacks for them and its a big blow not having him. i believe w. kent is pretty decent against the run, so hopefully that forces the c. mich qb into some mistakes. ullafayette represented the sun belt nicely vs e. carolina so that has me a little more confident as well..

[jinxpro13]

i dont view it as being isolated the way smu/fresno was b/c there still is a full slate of nba games tomorrow.
the mac has historically been one of the worst conferences ats in bowl games (around 45%) and this year they are 0-2 su/ats so far. first bowl appearance for w. kentucky should have them beyond motivated and they actually are covering machines away from home. antonio andrews leads the nation in all purpose yards and c. michigan is not exactly a team built to stop him...i usually fade interim coaches in bowl games but the players know the direction their program is headed with petrino announced as the new head coach. the interim coach guidry guided miami ohio to a bowl win last year as interim. c. michigan lost its best defensive player a few weeks ago - its funny how you only hear of star offensive players that are out, questionable etc....this kid had 12 sacks for them and its a big blow not having him. i believe w. kent is pretty decent against the run, so hopefully that forces the c. mich qb into some mistakes. ullafayette represented the sun belt nicely vs e. carolina so that has me a little more confident as well..

appreciate the analysis.. make some nice points. only real thing i argue here is the lack of isolation of the game. when push comes to shove my guess is nobody gives a shit about NBA. Wouldn't be surprised if the bowl game collected more money in bets than all NBA games combined tonight. up in Canada, if you aren't betting online, it's hard to find anywhere to even bet NBA.
trust me dude, this game is almost as isolated as it gets and vegas is asking for w.kentucky $$ right now.
it is what it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see w.kentucky win easily..
thankss again and GL dex

[Dmoneytx]

Thanks for the insight on the WKU/CMU game Dexter. I really like what u laid out there, appreciate the opinion greatly.