LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

Wow LTA. You are sure busy today.

My daughter is in bed now, and I have to say I'm having a hard time deciding whether to go to bed and rest for tomorrow, or watch some games starting now.

You might as well go to bed and when you wake up hopefully we have some more winners....I really need to sweep these night games.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x and over (71) 3x for total of 4x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 2x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for the new QB against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Hawaii/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

Hawaii overs are never a bad idea, especially when set below 60. We were burned on an Idaho over earlier in the year, so this is their chance for redemption in our eyes. Idaho's offense on the whole is pretty bad, but with the senior Reader at the helm, they do have the ability to move the ball through the air against a weak Hawaii defense. On the other side, I expect Hawaii to put up 40 in this one with a strong game from Moniz. I have this one set at 59.5, so there's quite a bit of value here and I actually thought about going bigger, but with Idaho a bit of wild card I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #13

Kansas (+28.5) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of the longhorns or their passing offense this year. The only thing Kansas can do is pass and I expect that ability to keep them under 4 td's. I am rolling with Kansas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Miss St/Kentucky under (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Bad offenses, solid defenses and we're covering the key number of 41. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Teaser

Wisconsin (-1.5)/Stanford (-1.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Probably the squarest road chalk teaser of all time, but I still don't see either of these teams losing and if they are going to win it's going to be by at least 2 points. I usually only tease dogs, but I will make an exception in this case. I know the books need both of these teams to lose, but the superiority on both of offense, defense and special teams, and also coaching, of both Wisky and Stanford makes me take this play. I'm teasing both Wisky and Stanford for 1x. Good luck.

Added 2x to Play #8 for total of 4x. Correct units denoted above

On top of the two defensive backs suspended for the whole game for Arizona, I just found out there are two more defensive backs suspended for the first half. Arizona will be starting two true freshman cornerbacks against on of the most explosive passing offenses in NCAAF. This news is enough to make me comfortable in making this play. I expect both Foles and Keith Price to just light up that scoreboard tonight. Arizona's defense was actually improving after the UCLA game, but with them on the road playing two freshmen at cornerback, I don't see how this game doesn't fly over the posted total well into the 80's. Price will exploit that AZ secondary all day and Foles will do the same with his deep WR corp against that weak pass D of Washington. I see this one being a huge shootout so I'm going to go for it and roll with the over for a total of 4x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x and over (71) 3x for total of 4x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

EDIT:

On top of the two defensive backs suspended for the whole game for Arizona, I just found out there are two more defensive backs suspended for the first half. Arizona will be starting two true freshman cornerbacks against on of the most explosive passing offenses in NCAAF. This news is enough to make me comfortable in making this play. I expect both Foles and Keith Price to just light up that scoreboard tonight. Arizona's defense was actually improving after the UCLA game, but with them on the road playing two freshmen at cornerback, I don't see how this game doesn't fly over the posted total well into the 80's. Price will exploit that AZ secondary all day and Foles will do the same with his deep WR corp against that weak pass D of Washington. I see this one being a huge shootout so I'm going to go for it and roll with the over for a total of 4x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Nevada/NMST over (60) 2x (Locked)

Here's one where I was able to get 59.5 on open, but was praying for a drop to 59 so I could get coverage on the key number of 59. That never materialized and instead I'm stuck with 60. However, I'm not really worried considered I have this one set at 64 and we are getting 4 points of value. I think this is a great break-out spot for the new QB against a pathetic NMST defense. I actually watched most of the Hawaii/NMST game last week and was struck by how good they could be on offense at times and how bad they are pretty much all the time on defense. Looking into the stats we see that offensive potential with FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers that have gone up throughout the season and are middle of the pack now. I like the explosiveness from NMST and I think that will give Nevada's D some problems. This is one I will be tracking and might make it a 1.5x or 2x play before the day is done. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Bowling Green/Kent State under (39.5) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to get some coverage on a final of 40, but the total never wavered from 39.5 except to go down to 39 all week. The books aren't hitting 40 despite 70% of all bets on the over. Kent State has a big-boy defense which is beloved by the advanced stats. They are efficient and they keep the ball out of the end zone will a solid points against record despite a crap offense. That's just the thing, we have a team in Kent State who might be the worst offensive team in the country, but with a great defense, going against a below average BG team in both offense and defense. I just don't see BG hitting up Kent State for more than 2-3 touchdowns and Kent State will struggle on offense just because they always do. If you are ready to sweat out a low total under, hop on board because this one could be close. I have this game set at 37 and I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Hawaii/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

Hawaii overs are never a bad idea, especially when set below 60. We were burned on an Idaho over earlier in the year, so this is their chance for redemption in our eyes. Idaho's offense on the whole is pretty bad, but with the senior Reader at the helm, they do have the ability to move the ball through the air against a weak Hawaii defense. On the other side, I expect Hawaii to put up 40 in this one with a strong game from Moniz. I have this one set at 59.5, so there's quite a bit of value here and I actually thought about going bigger, but with Idaho a bit of wild card I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #13

Kansas (+28.5) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of the longhorns or their passing offense this year. The only thing Kansas can do is pass and I expect that ability to keep them under 4 td's. I am rolling with Kansas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Miss St/Kentucky under (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Bad offenses, solid defenses and we're covering the key number of 41. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Teaser

Wisconsin (-1.5)/Stanford (-1.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Probably the squarest road chalk teaser of all time, but I still don't see either of these teams losing and if they are going to win it's going to be by at least 2 points. I usually only tease dogs, but I will make an exception in this case. I know the books need both of these teams to lose, but the superiority on both of offense, defense and special teams, and also coaching, of both Wisky and Stanford makes me take this play. I'm teasing both Wisky and Stanford for 1x. Good luck.

That's the final card for Week 9. It's all going to come down to the late games, and especially the big 2x play on the Nevada/NMST over and the 4x Arizona/Washington over.

The wife and baby just got home from the in-laws, so it's daddy time now. Hopefully, my little boy brings us some luck....

Good luck gentlemen

[Trivial]

You might as well go to bed and when you wake up hopefully we have some more winners....I really need to sweep these night games.

BOL to us both. Going to bed real soon.

[Trivial]

That's the final card for Week 9. It's all going to come down to the late games, and especially the big 2x play on the Nevada/NMST over and the 4x Arizona/Washington over.

The wife and baby just got home from the in-laws, so it's daddy time now. Hopefully, my little boy brings us some luck....

Good luck gentlemen

GL. Enjoy the precious time with your son.

[upscope]

Added 2x to Play #8 for total of 4x. Correct units denoted above

On top of the two defensive backs suspended for the whole game for Arizona, I just found out there are two more defensive backs suspended for the first half. Arizona will be starting two true freshman cornerbacks against on of the most explosive passing offenses in NCAAF. This news is enough to make me comfortable in making this play. I expect both Foles and Keith Price to just light up that scoreboard tonight. Arizona's defense was actually improving after the UCLA game, but with them on the road playing two freshmen at cornerback, I don't see how this game doesn't fly over the posted total well into the 80's. Price will exploit that AZ secondary all day and Foles will do the same with his deep WR corp against that weak pass D of Washington. I see this one being a huge shootout so I'm going to go for it and roll with the over for a total of 4x. Good luck.

Ticket#:9253891
Oct 29 08:13 PM
Oct 29 03:40 PM
Oct 29 07:05 PM
Oct 29 03:40 PM
Oct 29 10:35 PM
Oct 29 03:40 PM
INTERNET / -1Oct 29 03:33 PM
CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
[124] GEORGIA TECH +3-100
[133] ILLINOIS +4½-105
[148] TEXAS LONGHORNS -28-105
[167] GEORGIA -3½-105
[181] TOTAL o71-105
(ARIZONA U WILDCATS vrs WASHINGTON U)
[189] TOTAL o82-105
(BAYLOR vrs OKLAHOMA STATE)

15 / 836
Need that 4* play desperately.....let's get it LTA~

[Donnie Brasco]

How was that for a shitty break! Usc was the right side all night, then that! Wow is all i can say

[alamo]

Well done LTA on the big 4x winner. Makes it a profitable NCAAF week

[upscope]

Good job w/ the totals today LTA....The BG/Kent was BS btw

Have to give u credit when you go multiple units you are $$

Hard work will overcome the horrific beats in the end........Keep the ball rolling Bro.....Solid work today!!

[Trivial]

Indeed. Woke up this morning in a great mood after checking the scores. Will make it easier now spending cash to entertain my 20 month old.

Just wondering. What is everyone's unit size? I have changed mine recently as a result of going too far down. Is that a losing propositon? I think it is being smart with money, but wondering what the gang thinks.

Nice work LTA!

[Trivial]

Hi All. In one of LTA's threads (I am far too lazy to look up which one on an iPhone), we spoke about being an SBR PRO. So I want everyone to know that I did it. Cashed in points for gift cards on NFLshop.com. Not sure you can do this not being Pro. Bought myself an early xmas gift (for free).

http://www.nflshop.com/product/index.jsp?productId=4337051

[Redscot]

Good job w/ the totals today LTA....The BG/Kent was BS btw

Have to give u credit when you go multiple units you are $$

Hard work will overcome the horrific beats in the end........Keep the ball rolling Bro.....Solid work today!!

I second this, well said

[Redscot]

Hi All. In one of LTA's threads (I am far too lazy to look up which one on an iPhone), we spoke about being an SBR PRO. So I want everyone to know that I did it. Cashed in points for gift cards on NFLshop.com. Not sure you can do this not being Pro. Bought myself an early xmas gift (for free).

http://www.nflshop.com/product/index...ductId=4337051

I guess we can remain cordial for one more week Trivial....we are on a collision course me being a die hard Jets fan.

[Trivial]

I guess we can remain cordial for one more week Trivial....we are on a collision course me being a die hard Jets fan.

HAHHA Fair enough - although I am going to be at the Bills game next week.

I have a vendor taking me from Toronto to Buffalo going to be in the Time Warner box at that game.

So next week - sorry buds, no holds barred. :-) I've been a Bills fan for 22 years.

[upscope]

Indeed. Woke up this morning in a great mood after checking the scores. Will make it easier now spending cash to entertain my 20 month old.

Just wondering. What is everyone's unit size? I have changed mine recently as a result of going too far down. Is that a losing propositon? I think it is being smart with money, but wondering what the gang thinks.

Nice work LTA!

I don't think it's losing @ all.....remember there's always basketball after football & there's always baseball after basketball & there's always something after that. Ride the storm & stay in action & when it starts to go a little better slowly slip UP A few dollars per bet. The important thing is that you must stay in action & not feel pressured to break the bookie overnight. You're doing the right thing.

For me as far as units. I usually bet $60 $80 $100 $150 or $200.....If the stars align on a play that I like & all of the cappers I respect like I am not afraid to go big.....$500, $1000 even higher.....I have to be ahead though & really be confident in the play. Probably 3 or 4 a yr??
Nailed a nice 6 teamer yesterday that dug me out of the hole & gave me a little cushion to work w/ for todays games so i'll probably step it UP a notch on a few plays. I'm thinking $100 & $150 units today & thinking about going big on the Pats?? Just hope the respected cappers agree w/ the Pats play. If they do I might go $400 or $500 & make that my make it or break it play.

I'm as ready today as I have been in a while. Got a good vibe today after bailing out last night & hitting every single late game. Most cappers believe in grinding. I respect grinding & practice it as well but I also like to aggressively push a short hot streak (one or two days) while anticipating that it turns into an extended streak (three or four weeks) & by the time your streak slows you've accumulated enough units to cover multiple bad runs.
There's pros & cons to both methods. For me the biggest pro is being able to quickly maximize on a hot streak from the very beginning while the biggest con is routinely giving back a day or two's profits by being too aggressive too quickly & over betting in anticipation of a hot streak that doesn't happen.....

Done rambling....thanx 4 listening

GL today all.....let's get em'
And as always Thanx to LTA for leading the way

[Redscot]

Indeed. Woke up this morning in a great mood after checking the scores. Will make it easier now spending cash to entertain my 20 month old.

Just wondering. What is everyone's unit size? I have changed mine recently as a result of going too far down. Is that a losing propositon? I think it is being smart with money, but wondering what the gang thinks.

Nice work LTA!

I cashed out a chunk after baseball, and have reigned in my unit size a tad. I find if I leave money accumulated in my book I make more reckless plays. I have a set amount I start at and a goal. When/if I hit the goal I take out the winnings and get back to the original set amount. When I get some positive momentum going and build up the BR I tend to increase the unit size a bit as well. Not advocating this style, it is just what works for me.

[Trivial]

Thanks Red and Up. Appreciate both write ups. I am typically $100 a unit and gone higher to $500 when I feel really really good. My record so far is betting $2500 on the Giants winning straight up on the Superbowl against New England at +850 odds. I was the happiest man on earth. The spread was +15. As LTA says - go with your gut at all costs and I did.

[Trivial]

I don't think it's losing @ all.....remember there's always basketball after football & there's always baseball after basketball & there's always something after that. Ride the storm & stay in action & when it starts to go a little better slowly slip UP A few dollars per bet. The important thing is that you must stay in action & not feel pressured to break the bookie overnight. You're doing the right thing.

For me as far as units. I usually bet $60 $80 $100 $150 or $200.....If the stars align on a play that I like & all of the cappers I respect like I am not afraid to go big.....$500, $1000 even higher.....I have to be ahead though & really be confident in the play. Probably 3 or 4 a yr??
Nailed a nice 6 teamer yesterday that dug me out of the hole & gave me a little cushion to work w/ for todays games so i'll probably step it UP a notch on a few plays. I'm thinking $100 & $150 units today & thinking about going big on the Pats?? Just hope the respected cappers agree w/ the Pats play. If they do I might go $400 or $500 & make that my make it or break it play.

I'm as ready today as I have been in a while. Got a good vibe today after bailing out last night & hitting every single late game. Most cappers believe in grinding. I respect grinding & practice it as well but I also like to aggressively push a short hot streak (one or two days) while anticipating that it turns into an extended streak (three or four weeks) & by the time your streak slows you've accumulated enough units to cover multiple bad runs.
There's pros & cons to both methods. For me the biggest pro is being able to quickly maximize on a hot streak from the very beginning while the biggest con is routinely giving back a day or two's profits by being too aggressive too quickly & over betting in anticipation of a hot streak that doesn't happen.....

Done rambling....thanx 4 listening

GL today all.....let's get em'
And as always Thanx to LTA for leading the way

This is not rambling. It makes sense. I hate giving back as well, but who does not. I also cash out too often to force myself discipline. Pay too much in withdrawal fees, but probably save in the long run.

[Trivial]

I cashed out a chunk after baseball, and have reigned in my unit size a tad. I find if I leave money accumulated in my book I make more reckless plays. I have a set amount I start at and a goal. When/if I hit the goal I take out the winnings and get back to the original set amount. When I get some positive momentum going and build up the BR I tend to increase the unit size a bit as well. Not advocating this style, it is just what works for me.

Thanks Red. I have a similar style. Go bigger as I get a BR and then back off if it goes bad and cash out often to avoid temptation. I pay a lot to cash out but it is worth it.

So it is not only me that does not stick to a specific unit size. Good to know.

Thanks again both of you. Most informative.

[Dexter]

nice....we both added to over wash. was x5 for me...

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9 Recap

6 - 9 = +1.6x

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

41 - 50 = -7.4x

We've actually had six out of nine winning weeks. The problem is that on the weeks we didn't win, we lost about 5x on each and the weeks we won, we only one 1x or 2x. That's not going to get it done. There's no doubt we've had some tough breaks so I'm expecting things to turn around with a BIG week soon. I'm hoping it's week 10!

[Trivial]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9 Recap

6 - 9 = +1.6x

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

41 - 50 = -7.4x

We've actually had six out of nine winning weeks. The problem is that on the weeks we didn't win, we lost about 5x on each and the weeks we won, we only one 1x or 2x. That's not going to get it done. There's no doubt we've had some tough breaks so I'm expecting things to turn around with a BIG week soon. I'm hoping it's week 10!

Just as I read this, my daughter said "GO GO GO".

[Love The Action]

Just as I read this, my daughter said "GO GO GO".

I love it!!! That bodes well for next week. Tell her thanks...I like her style

[Donnie Brasco]

What up boys, looking forward to toledo game. I have toledo -11.8/73.6. Waiting to pounce on a bad number. Anyone else looked at it?

[Love The Action]

What up boys, looking forward to toledo game. I have toledo -11.8/73.6. Waiting to pounce on a bad number. Anyone else looked at it?

I'm going to work on that game tonight. I am very interested in that matchup.

I think you might be a little high with both numbers, especially the total. I would be shocked if that total was in the 70's with the efficiency of Toledo's defense. Without actually running this game through my model or capping it, I would guess this one is more like a Toledo -8 or -9 and a total in the mid to high 60's.

I am pumped about that MAC matchup on Tuesday though. I'm a big MAC guy, so I will enjoy it. What are you leaning Donnie?

[suicidekings]

I'm going to work on that game tonight. I am very interested in that matchup.

I think you might be a little high with both numbers, especially the total. I would be shocked if that total was in the 70's with the efficiency of Toledo's defense. Without actually running this game through my model or capping it, I would guess this one is more like a Toledo -8 or -9 and a total in the mid to high 60's.

I am pumped about that MAC matchup on Tuesday though. I'm a big MAC guy, so I will enjoy it. What are you leaning Donnie?

My numbers are virtually identical to Donnie's on the Toledo game. The NIU defense has been poor on the road, and Toledo defends the run very well.

[Love The Action]

What up boys, looking forward to toledo game. I have toledo -11.8/73.6. Waiting to pounce on a bad number. Anyone else looked at it?

My numbers are virtually identical to Donnie's on the Toledo game. The NIU defense has been poor on the road, and Toledo defends the run very well.

Im close as well after running the numbers, although I still have to look at qualitative/situational factors to decide on a play. I have toledo -10 and the total at 71. Not too far off from you and donnie. I believe toledo opened at 7.5 and the total is at 67 early. Looks like we have some value here. Good work gentlemen

[Love The Action]

What up boys, looking forward to toledo game. I have toledo -11.8/73.6. Waiting to pounce on a bad number. Anyone else looked at it?

I ran the numbers last night and they were closer to your numbers than the opener. Seems like your model is starting to take shape. Looks like adding a few of those advanced stats to what you were already doing has paid off. Good work bud

[YOUNGBUCK]

See alot of ppl lovin Toledo early

[Donnie Brasco]

Im gonna grab toledo at -8, dont have a total on 5d yet. Whats the opener you have?

[Donnie Brasco]

Toledo enjoys a large advantage in advanced stats such as F+, S&p+ etc. this is not the same n ill team.

[Donnie Brasco]

I also like the chiefs as dogs at arrowhead tonight.

[Donnie Brasco]

Even though our models show value to the over, i am quite hesitant. I am not sure huskies will hold up their end. What u guys think? Toledo is top 3rd of the country in advanced defensive stats.

[Dexter]

Im gonna grab toledo at -8, dont have a total on 5d yet. Whats the opener you have?

toledo lost by 35 @ n. illinois last year. think im with you on this play Donnie. both teams are on equal rest but toldeo has always been one of the best home teams ATS in college. no different this year.

[Donnie Brasco]

Glad to see you lean toledo dex. Like i said earlier, this n ill team is nowhere near as good as last year, and i am sure the revenge factor is high with a 5 td loss still tasting like shit in their mouths!