College Football Picks & More

**FUqer** · 09-23-17, 02:05 AM

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Road teams 59.7% this season.
Dogs 54.6% this season.
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Ohio vs E.Michigan

Ohio goes to UMASS next week.

E.Michigan 1-10 SU L11 and 3-8 ATS in Home Conference games.
E.Michigan 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS L8 vs Ohio.
E.Michigan has lost 13 str8 on 13 days rest, 3-10 ATS.
First time E.Michigan has been favored at Home over Ohio since 1999.
E.Michigan goes to Kentucky next week.

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Miami,Ohio at C.Michigan

Miami 0-14 SU L14 Road Conference games after a loss.
Miami 3-1 SUATS last season in Road Conference games, but 0-14 SU the previous 14.
Miami has 17 starters back from last years team that won 37-17.
Miami goes to Notre Dame next week.

C.Michigan 1-5 ATS L6 Home Conference games.
C.Michigan is hurting at WR.
C.Michigan goes to Boston College next week.

Miami opened as a slight favorite but then quickly went to +2.5 even though the % backed was on Miami signaling a
possible big single play. The line has now moved back to Miami being Favs at -2.5.

I like Miami in this one to bounce back after last week's debacle against Cincy.
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Toledo at Miami, FL

Toledo 5-2 ATS L7 as Dogs of 10 or more, Under 8-1 L9.
Toledo 10-2 ATS L12 on the Road 9-2 SU L11.
Toledo has the week off next week.

Miami 8-2 ATS L10 as a Favorite of 10 or more.
Miami hasn't played a MAC team since 1987 when they beat Toledo 24-14.
Miami has played one game so far back in week 1, Toledo has played all 3 weeks.
Miami goes to Duke next week.

MAC 3-5 ATS since 2015 vs the ACC, 0-8 SU.

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Arkansas nt Texas A&M

Arkansas has New Mexico State at Home next week.

Texas A&M has won the L5 vs Arkansas, all by at least 7, with only one of those at Home, but they are just 2-10-1
ATS L13 vs them.
Texas A&M 0-7-2 ATS L9 as a Favorite.
Texas A&M has S.Carolina at Home next week.

The line opened at -3 but went under the key number early even thought the public is behind A&M.

I like Arkansas to get some revenge against A&M in this spot.
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Missouri vs Auburn

Missouri 4-12 ATS since 2015 vs the SEC.
Missouri 0-22 SU as a Home Dog of 17 or more, only the 2nd time since 2001.
Missouri has the week off next week.

Auburn hasn't been Road chalk of 17 or more since 2006.
Auburn 2-9-2 ATS L13 as Favorites of 17 or more, 84-4 SU L88.
Auburn has Mississippi State at Home next week.

Under 12-4 L16 times Missouri played a SEC team, Under 17-5 since 2006 at Home.
Under 14-4 since 2015 in Missouri games when the total is less than 58.

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Texas Tech at Houston

Houston 1-6 SU vs Texas Tech but have only played twice in the 2000's, in 2009 and 2010.
Houston last played a B12 team last year and beat Oklahoma 33-23 on a neutral field.
Houston has won 16 str8 at Home, 6-9-1 ATS, Over 9-5-1.
Houston 4-8-1 ATS when favored by 5 or more at Home since 2015.
Houston 1-4 ATS L5 at Home after a Home win, Under 6-0 L6.
Houston goes to Temple next week.

Texas Tech 12-5-1 ATS L18.
Texas Tech 5-2 ATS as a Road Dog since 2015, 5-1 ATS when dogs of 5 or more.
Texas Tech 4-0 ATS L4 vs a winning team.
Texas Tech has Oklahoma St at Home next week.

Was on the fence so I put it in a teaser.
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San Diego St at Air Force

San Diego St 23-3 SU and 16-9-1 ATS L26 off a Home game.
San Diego St 0-6 SU L6 Week 4 games, 1-5 ATS.
San Diego St 8-1 SU since 2015 on the Road in a conference game, 7-3 ATS L10.
San Diego St 9-4 ATS L13 as a Road Favorite in a conference game, 11-2 SU.
San Diego St 0-11 SU L11 when undefeated after Week 3, 2-9 ATS.
San Diego St 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS L8 on the Road after a Home win.
San Diego St has N.Illinois at Home next week.

Air Force 0-6 SU L6 vs San Diego St, 1-6 ATS L7.
Air Force 27-12 SU and 24-15 ATS L39 at Home off a Road game.
Air Force 5-0 SUATS L5 as a Home Dog.
Air Force 10-1 SU L11 Home Conference games, 7-4 ATS.
Air Force 8-2 ATS L10 as a Dog in a Conference game.
Air Force 3-8 ATS at Home after a loss.
Air Force 1-5 ATS L6 Week 4 games.
Air Force goes to New Mexico next week.

Teams 4-13 SU since 2012 in a Home Conference game after playing at Michigan, 5-10-2 ATS.

Tough one to call, should be a good game, if I had to guess I would say San Diego St.
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Vanderbilt vs Alabama

Vanderbilt 10-2 ATS L12 as a Home Dog.
Vanderbilt 0-22 SU vs Alabama since 1985.
Vanderbilt 0-21-1 SU in Home Conference games as Dogs of 17 or more.
Vanderbilt 10-3 ATS L13 Home Conference games, 3-10 OU.
Vanderbilt 8-2 ATS L10 as a Dog in Home Conference games.
Vanderbilt 8-2 ATS L10 as Dogs of 17 or more.
Vanderbilt goes to Florida next week.

Alabama 5-12-1 ATS since 2014 as Favorites of 17 or more.
Alabama 8-3 ATS since 2010 as a Road Favorite of 17 or more, Over 8-3.
Alabama has Mississippi at Home next week.

I think if Vandy can score double digits that might be enough for their defense to cover the spread.
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Penn St at Iowa

Penn St 11-1 SUATS L12.
Penn St 5-1 ATS L6 as a Favorite of 10 or more, 9-1 ATS on the Road since 1999, 2-0 last season.
Penn St has Indiana at Home next.

Iowa 0-3 SUATS L3 vs Penn St.
Iowa has scored a total of 31 points in the last 3 vs Penn St, but 21 of them were in 4th Q when Penn St had a big
lead.
Iowa goes on the Road next week to Michigan St.

Biggest spread in series since 2000 and that was at Penn St, won by Iowa SU as 17 pt dogs.

I like Penn St in this one but I only added it to a ML parlay because I didn't like the line movement. I don't think Iowa's pass defense is as good as their numbers. I still think Penn St covers the double digit spread.
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Wake Forest at Appalachian St

Haven't played since 2001.

Wake Forest 7-1 ATS L8 on the Road.
Wake Forest 7-1 ATS L8 overall.
Wake Forest as won by an average score of 43.7 to 9 in 3 games so far.
Wake Forest has Florida St at Home next week.

Appalachian St 1-6 ATS vs the ACC Conference and 6-25-1 SU.
Appalachian St 0-6 ATS L6 at Home and 1-9 L10.
Appalachian St 0-2 SUATS since 2014 as Home Dogs.
Appalachian St 2-6 ATS L8 overall.
Appalachian St has the week off next week.

Wake Forest opened at -3.5 and now it's up to -6, they seem to be heavily backed on the sharp and public side for
good reason, but the books don't like that, this line may at least get to -7.

Wake Forest has been rolling and App St has had trouble covering at Home, but too much action for me, so ML parlay only.
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Michigan St vs Notre Dame

Michigan St 16-4 ATS L20 as a Dog.
Michigan St 5-0 ATS L5 at Home.
Michigan St 4-0 ATS as a Home Dog since 2010.
Michigan St 2-4 SU L6 vs Notre Dame, 7-3 ATS L10.
Michigan St 2-4 SUATS L6 at Home vs Notre Dame.
Michigan St had the week off to prepare for Notre Dame.
Michigan St 7-2 OU on 13 days rest, 6-1 L7 as a Home Dog.
Michigan St has Iowa at Home next week.

Notre Dame 5-1 ATS L6 on the Road after a Road game, 11-3 ATS L14.
Notre Dame 2-4 ATS L6 as a Road Favorite.
Notre Dame has Miami Ohio at Home next week.

I think Notre Dame is the better team but Michigan St has had a week off to prepare and may find a way to sneak this one out.
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Florida at Kentucky

Florida 9-1 ATS L10 vs Kentucky, 30-0 SU L30.
Florida 5-0 ATS L5 in Kentucky and 14-0 SU L14.
Florida 7-3 ATS L10 as Road Favorites in a Conference game.
Florida 2-8 OU L10 Road Conference games.
Florida has Vanderbilt at Home next week.

Kentucky 2-12-1 ATS L15 as a Home Dog.
Kentucky has E.Michigan at Home next week.

Florida opened at -4 and went as low as -1.5 on Thursday with the public now bring it back up to -2.5 currently. I
would be suspicious is this line doesn't hit at least -3 by kickoff.

Hard to ignore that Florida has won 30 in a row vs Kentucky and them being small favs should prolly be a warning sign, but with trends like that I'm going to bite on it anyway in my ML parlay.
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California vs USC

California 2-12 ATS L14 vs USC.
California goes to Oregon next week.

USC 7-3 ATS L10.
USC goes to Washington State next week.

Cal is surprising a lot of people so far and wouldn't surprise me if they cover the big spread at Home vs USC.
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Purdue 4-20 ATS and 1-23 SU L24 as a Home Dog.

Georgia Tech 6-0 ATS L6.

UCONN 0-12 ATS L12 as a Home Favorite.
E.Carolina 0-9-1 ATS and 0-10 SU L10 as a Dog.

Army 1-14 OU L15 as a Dog, 9-5-1 ATS.

Oklahoma 16-2 OU L18 as a Road Favorite, 17-1 SU and 12-6 ATS.
Oklahoma 18-5-1 L24 on the Road.
Oklahoma St 47-21 OU L69 at Home.
Oklahoma St 27-10-1 OU L38 as a Home Favorite.

Cincinnati 4-19 OU L23.

LSU 4-16 OU L20.

Pittsburgh 12-3 OU L15.

**FUqer** · 09-23-17, 02:09 AM

Saturday Plays 9/23

¤ Arkansas +2.5 -103 (Heritage)
¤ Vanderbilt +18.5 -108 (Heritage)
¤ Miami,Ohio -2 -108 (Heritage)

¤ ML Parlay: +203 (Penn St -470)(Wake Forest -230)(Florida -135)

¤ Teaser: -115 (Texas Tech +17)(W.Virginia -13)(Auburn/Missouri Under 70.5)

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**FUqer** · 09-23-17, 02:13 AM

Originally posted by shopbar picks

Plays up tonight?

Sorry, running a little later this week, dove into NFL pretty hard first and planning for trip this weekend. Still didn't get through everything I wanted to, so I'm gonna play it somewhat cautious. GL this week!

**shopbar picks** · 09-23-17, 02:15 AM

Not a problem appreciate the work. And the picks. Thanks again

**FUqer** · 09-23-17, 10:23 PM

Haha sitting around the campfire scoreboard watching and thought that ml parlay was dead a few times. Florida and Wake won by 1 and Penn state by 2.

**FUqer** · 09-23-17, 10:33 PM

Looks like I went 3-2 for +1.92, I'll check it tomorrow night when I get home, that ot loss by Arkansas sucked though and Vandy was embarrassing, I can't get them right, lost twice against them and now on them, 3 of my 13 losses, smh. And I'm not sure why people say not to play college teasers but I do well with them so I could care less.

**FUqer** · 09-25-17, 11:31 AM

Saturday Results 9/23

LOSS - ¤ Arkansas +2.5 -103 (Heritage)
LOSS - ¤ Vanderbilt +18.5 -108 (Heritage)
WIN - ¤ Miami,Ohio -2 -108 (Heritage)

WIN - ¤ ML Parlay: +203 (Penn St -470)(Wake Forest -230)(Florida -135)

WIN - ¤ Teaser: -115 (Texas Tech +17)(W.Virginia -13)(Auburn/Missouri Under 70.5)

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Yesterday = 3-2 for +1.92

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Season = 23-13 for +11.22
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ATS Total = 14-9 for +4.39

(Dogs = 8-8 for -0.53 )
(Favs = 6-1 for +4.92 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
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ML Total = 2-2 for +0.55

(Dogs = 2-1 for +1.60 )
(Favs = 0-1 for -1.05 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
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O/U Total = 1-1 for +0.00

(Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(Under = 1-0 for +1.00 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-1 for -1.00 )
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Parlays = 3-1 for +3.28
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Teasers = 3-0 for +3.00
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Week 1 = 5-7 for -2.17
Week 2 = 4-3 for +1.17
Week 3 = 11-1 for +10.30
Week 4 = 3-2 for +1.92

**FUqer** · 09-25-17, 12:05 PM

I can no longer with a good conscience support the NFL or the Steelers until something is done about this childish and pointless behavior. At this point what good is it doing, do they think they are preventing anything or is it just their goal to lose money and fans. I never been a fan of Tomlin but you don't wait until before the game in the locker room to pull some BS like that. You should be concentrating on the game and people wonder why he sucks against bad teams, cuz he's a glorified cheerleader, not a coach. If anything at all he could of took a few minutes the day before the game and talked to the team about it, what a damn fool these people are.

The Steelers were always by far my favorite sports team and the NFL my favorite sport, this whole thing is just one big stupid distraction. These players have attention every day of their lives on social media, on radio shows, interviews, etc... and they would all be a better time for them to get their message out than during the National Anthem. But if the owners and the league are going to let them get away with it (even though according to the Washington Post they are breaking their own rules), then they can do whatever they want, but so can the people who it pisses off. We as fans make this league, not the players and owners, we have the ultimate power, so it's time we start to use it and send a message. That's more time for the College Football for me, where at least on the football field their away from all the nutty liberal professors.

I much prefer the view I had yesterday rather than that BS.

**BigdaddyQH** · 09-25-17, 01:48 PM

These stupid blacks will destroy the sport. Attendance and TV ratings are way down. White people do not want to see a lot of over paid blacks, many of which who belong in jail, mouthing off and trying to protest because they cry every time one of them gets his ass kicked by a white cop. In the mean time, their black brothers kill everyone they want to, including blacks.

**FUqer** · 09-29-17, 05:36 PM

Friday Plays 9/29

¤ Parlay: +112 (Miami ML -240)(USC ML -200)

¤ Parlay: +178 (Illinois +7 -145)(Utah St +3 -155)

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Season = 23-13 for +11.22

**FUqer** · 09-30-17, 02:48 AM

Saturday Plays 9/30

¤ New Mexico St +17 -105 (Heritage)
¤ S.Florida -21 -103 (Heritage)
¤ Michigan St -4 -105 (Heritage)
¤ Miami,Ohio +20.5 -105 (Heritage)
¤ N.Illinois +10 -105 (Heritage)
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No time for write ups this week, it's my b-day week and TBH I didn't really work too hard this week, but I think I've done enough on these games and hopefully I can make up for last night's parlays. GLA!

**2daBank** · 09-30-17, 03:34 AM

I've never been real good at laying big numbers so not sure if this a good thing for ya but I really like usf as well. I was initially looking over and while I have bulls getting into the 50s I just wasn't sure we could count on low to mid 20s from ecu.

Gl this weekend and happy bday buddy.

**FUqer** · 09-30-17, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I've never been real good at laying big numbers so not sure if this a good thing for ya but I really like usf as well. I was initially looking over and while I have bulls getting into the 50s I just wasn't sure we could count on low to mid 20s from ecu.

Gl this weekend and happy bday buddy.

Usually don't lay DD, let alone over 20, but this is 2nd time this season I've done it, both times fading ECU. We should know early if ECU is gonna put up some points, they've scored 38 of their 58 points in the 1st Q their last 2 games.

Thanks & GL2u2.

**Notorious_Donk** · 09-30-17, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Saturday Plays 9/30

¤ New Mexico St +17 -105 (Heritage)
¤ S.Florida -21 -103 (Heritage)
¤ Michigan St -4 -105 (Heritage)
¤ Miami,Ohio +20.5 -105 (Heritage)
¤ N.Illinois +10 -105 (Heritage)
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No time for write ups this week, it's my b-day week and TBH I didn't really work too hard this week, but I think I've done enough on these games and hopefully I can make up for last night's parlays. GLA!

Happy birthday man. Love the Miami OH play

**FUqer** · 09-30-17, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by Notorious_Donk

Happy birthday man. Love the Miami OH play

Thanks!

**FUqer** · 09-30-17, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Saturday Plays 9/30

¤ New Mexico St +17 -105 (Heritage)
¤ S.Florida -21 -103 (Heritage)
¤ Michigan St -4 -105 (Heritage)
¤ Miami,Ohio +20.5 -105 (Heritage)
¤ N.Illinois +10 -105 (Heritage)

¤ Teaser -115 (Oregon -5½)(N. Illinois +19)(Va Tech +17½)
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Added my teaser for the week.

**FUqer** · 09-30-17, 02:30 PM

¤ Parlay: +102 (Florida St -280)(Navy -310)(SMU -800)

**FUqer** · 09-30-17, 06:38 PM

¤ Texas Tech +10.5 -110 (Bovada)

**johnnygooble** · 09-30-17, 06:53 PM

Good call on mich st. Steelers to beat Balt on Sunday?

**FUqer** · 10-01-17, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by johnnygooble

Good call on mich st. Steelers to beat Balt on Sunday?

Thanks, Steelers would of been a play for me and I usually play on the Ravens ML in the series because I hate them so much, it's like a win/win for me. Yanda going out for Ravens made a bad offense a lot worse. Steelers like to go deep to Bryant vs the Ravens DB's, he could have a big game.

**FUqer** · 10-01-17, 01:23 AM

6-2 for +3.92 on the day, I'll update full records later.

**FUqer** · 10-02-17, 12:07 PM

Friday Results 9/29

LOSS - ¤ Parlay: +112 (Miami ML -240)(USC ML -200)
LOSS - ¤ Parlay: +178 (Illinois +7 -145)(Utah St +3 -155)

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Friday = 0-2 for -2.00
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Saturday Results 9/30

LOSS - ¤ New Mexico St +17 -105 (Heritage)
WIN - ¤ S.Florida -21 -103 (Heritage)
WIN - ¤ Michigan St -4 -105 (Heritage)
LOSS - ¤ Miami,Ohio +20.5 -105 (Heritage)
WIN - ¤ N.Illinois +10 -105 (Heritage)
WIN - ¤ Texas Tech +10.5 -110 (Bovada)

WIN - ¤ Teaser -115 (Oregon -5½)(N. Illinois +19)(Va Tech +17½)

WIN - ¤ Parlay: +102 (Florida St -280)(Navy -310)(SMU -800)
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Saturday = 6-2 for +3.92
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Season = 29-17 for +13.14
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ATS Total = 18-11 for +6.29

(Dogs = 10-10 for -0.63 )
(Favs = 8-1 for +6.92 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
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ML Total = 2-2 for +0.55

(Dogs = 2-1 for +1.60 )
(Favs = 0-1 for -1.05 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
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O/U Total = 1-1 for +0.00

(Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(Under = 1-0 for +1.00 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-1 for -1.00 )
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Parlays = 4-3 for +2.30
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Teasers = 4-0 for +4.00
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Week 1 = 5-7 for -2.17
Week 2 = 4-3 for +1.17
Week 3 = 11-1 for +10.30
Week 4 = 3-2 for +1.92
Week 5 = 6-4 for +1.92
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Not a bad week, but would of been better if not for the 0-2 in parlays on Friday. I didn't think the refs were particular fair in the USC game but I'm not going to rant about it because I knew that was a risk playing on a team like USC in a Prime Time game. Thankfully a 6-2 Saturday more than made up for it with Miami,Ohio really being my really only bad play as New Mexico St. failed to hit the spread by one point after they fell down 21-0 very early and couldn't muster anything on the ground the whole game. Not a bad week considering I didn't work on it very much and missed the games last week, plus I finished 2nd in the NFL contest and 3rd in NCAA, 4-1 in Beat the Bag and I beat the Prick for the 3rd week out of 4 weeks.

I'm 8-1 ATS with Favorites with my only loss in Week 1 with UCLA vs Texas A&M in that crazy game, but I'm not changing anything at this point. I'm 4-0 with Teasers and for me it seems pretty easy to pick out a 10 point teaser with a huge card on Saturday's because I cap most of the games, the same for those ML parlays as long as it's a big card to select from, unlike the ones I played on Friday.

I started my YPP capping this week with my #'s for SOS and HF factored in, but I'm just going to use it lightly for now, I see no need to change too much.

**FUqer** · 10-02-17, 12:15 PM

For Thursday's game I have Louisville -0.2 at NC State, basically a pick'em. It's not a spot where I will give too much consideration to Louisville, so I might take a deeper look into NC State, but looks unlikely considering last years performance and their 0-9 SU streak as HC Dogs.

Louisville led 44-0 at halftime last year at Home before winning 54-13.
Louisville 5-2 SUATS at a AF of 4 or less since 2010.

NC State 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS L9 as a HD in a Conference game.
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For Friday I have Memphis -11.8 and Boise St -6.2.

**FUqer** · 10-02-17, 02:30 PM

Week 6 Plays

¤ Teaser -115 (Texas Tech -7½)(Memphis -3½)(Virginia Tech -6½)
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**FUqer** · 10-02-17, 03:28 PM

Other games I'm looking into...

Texas Tech - would like to get 17 again but I doubt that will happen, will prolly move closer to 20.

N.Illinois - Kent St is bad and N.Illinois is a covering machine but 23 is a lot to ask for them, so I dunno. I have laid over 20 twice this season and won both of them and my numbers indicate a blow out and easy cover.

Nebraska - If they play like they did last week and not turn the ball over they can cover this number at Home which IMO is too big.

Colorado - I'm not a fan of either Arizona team this year and I think their QB's inaccuracy on the Road won't be good for them in this one.

Oregon - This is a pretty good Oregon team and but they will be tested in this one. Washington St. might be a a let down spot after the big win vs USC.

Miami, FL - It seems a lot of people are liking this one, the only thing that favors FSU is the SOS. I'm not a big fan of taking a highly backed team in a high profile game though, I might consider it in a ML Parlay, but I'm even worried about that.

Duke - I'm having 2nd thoughts about Duke in this one and might even switch sides after looking into it a little more.

Purdue - They lost the last 4 vs Minnesota but are a different team under their new coach and this should be a better game. Purdue is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS L11 at Home vs Minnesota and 3-0 SUATS L3 as a HF of 5 or less. The last 5 in the series have went Over.

Arkansas - My numbers says they shouldn't be favored but just like in MLB, maybe the books know something we don't and my gut says Arkansas wins.

Kentucky - They are getting better and better and Missouri is trash and my numbers have Kentucky covering easily.

Florida - They may have found some offense against Vandy and LSU is in bad shape right now, I have Florida favored by DD.

New Mexico St - App St hasn't been as good at Home recently and New Mexico St have a lot of JUCO transfers that have improved them this season. I have New Mexico St about a TD better than the line.

Some other opinions..

Northwestern has beat Penn St the last two times but I think Penn St gets some revenge in this one.
Michigan St 9-0-1 ATS L10 vs Michigan, but it's their first Road game.

**eastvan09** · 10-02-17, 04:19 PM

Very thorough analysis!

**shopbar picks** · 10-02-17, 08:44 PM

Others for you to look at..Iowa, UCF, Washington, Kansas State cant believe Texas is favored..Really like Texas Tech and Purdue.. Wouldn't touch the Huskers..The ducks QB left the game early last week will he play?

**FUqer** · 10-03-17, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by shopbar picks

Others for you to look at..Iowa, UCF, Washington, Kansas State cant believe Texas is favored..Really like Texas Tech and Purdue.. Wouldn't touch the Huskers..The ducks QB left the game early last week will he play?

Iowa spread seems about right to me, I know Illinois's offense sucks but Iowa not a a team I trust to cover a big spread.

I got UCF rated at -16 but I think they should cover, they were one of my teaser options.

I haven't looked into the Washington game at all, the high spread is not appealing to me.

I actually got Texas winning by a TD, but haven't looked too deep into it yet.

Herbert is out 4-6 weeks, so I'll have to look into their backup QB, hard to believe they are still favored.

**FUqer** · 10-05-17, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Week 6 Plays

¤ Texas Tech -17 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Syracuse -3.5 -105 (Heritage)
¤ New Mexico St +11 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Miami,FL -3 -105 (5Dimes)

¤ Teaser -115 (Texas Tech -7½)(Memphis -3½)(Virginia Tech -6½)
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Miami,FL -3 (-4.4) at Florida St

Miami 5-0 SUATS L5 as a Road Fav and 12-4 ATS L16.
Miami 11-3 ATS L14 as a Fav..
Miami 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS L8 overall.

Florida St has won 7 in a row vs Miami, 4-3 ATS.
Florida St 0-4 SU L4 as a Home Dog.
ACC Home Dogs 2-8 ATS this season.

I decided to make the public play after all, these don't really need to much explanation. FSU's QB wasn't ready and
makes them one dimensional, setting up an oppurtunity for Miami to break their losing streak against them.
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New Mexico St +11 (+3.4) at Appalachian St

New Mexico St 8-2-1 ATS L11.

Appalachian St won last season 37-7 on the Road.
Appalachian St 2-9 ATS L11 at Home.
Appalachian St 1-9 ATS L10 as a HF of 10 or more.
DD Home Favs are 44.6% this season.

The line is too high here, this isn't the same New Mexico St team that got crushed by them last year. It wouldn't
surprise me if they pull off the upset in this one.
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Syracuse -3.5 (-1.3) vs Pittsburgh`

Syracuse 1-11 SU L12 vs Pitt.
Syracuse 3-1-1 since 2011 as a Home Fav in a conference game.

Pittsburgh 5-2 ATS L7 as a Road Dog in a conference game.
Pittsburgh 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS L5 as dog of 5 or less.

I think Dungy is the better QB and his ability to run will cause fits for the Panthers
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Texas Tech -17 (-20.1) at Kansas

DD Road Favorites are 23-9-1 ATS this season and 32-1 SU.
Big 12 Favorites of 17 or more are 8-3-2 ATS L13..
Texas Tech 14-5-1 ATS L20 games.
Texas Tech 12-5 ATS L17 as a Favorite of 17 or more.
Texas Tech 16-6 ATS L22 as a Road Fav, Over 15-6-1.
Texas Tech 7-2-1 ATS L10 as a FAV.

I'm gonna take a chance on another high favorite this week with TT over a bad Kansas team.
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**FUqer** · 10-05-17, 02:07 AM

Louisville -3.5 (-0.2) at NC State Thursday

Louisville led 44-0 at halftime last year at Home before winning 54-13.
Louisville 5-2 SUATS at a AF of 4 or less since 2010.
Louisville 1-8 ATS L9 games.

NC State 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS L9 as a HD in a Conference game.
NC State 2-0 SUATS L2 as a Dog.
NC State 0-4 SUATS L4 at Home.
Home Dogs 2-8 ATS this season in the ACC.
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Memphis -13.5 (-11.8) at UCONN

UCONN 0-7 SUATS L7 as a Dog.
UCONN 0-9 ATS L9 after a loss.
UCONN 5-17 ATS L22 at Home.
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Boise St -9 (-6.2) at BYU Friday

Boise St 3-12-1 ATS L16 games.

BYU 0-6 ATS L6 games.
BYU 4-1 ATS L5 vs BOISE
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Purdue -4 (-6.3) vs Minnesota

Purdue 0-4 SU L4 vs MIN
Purdue 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS L12 at Home vs MIN.
Purdue 3-0 SUATS L3 as HF of 5 or less.
Purdue 9-25-1 ATS L35 at Home.
Home Favs of 5 or less are 5-1 SUATS L6 in the BIG 10, Under is 12-3 L15.
Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.

Minnesota 3-0 SUATS L3 as a Dog of 5 or less.
Minnesota 18-5-1 ATS L24 as a Dog.
Minnesota 11-3-1 ATS L15 as a Road Dog.

Last 5 have went Over in the series.
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Nebraska +11.5 (+5.9) vs Wisconsin

1st time Nebraska has been DD Dogs at Home since 2008, losing to Missouri 52-17.
DD Home Dogs are 2-9 ATS L11 in the BIG 10.

Wisconsin 5-1 SUATS vs Nebraska.
Wisconsin 4-1 ATS since 2014 as DD Road Favorites.
Wisconsin 7-0 ATS L7 on the Road.
Wisconsin has 16 sacks on the season.
DD Road Favorites are 23-9-1 ATS this season and 32-1 SU.
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Penn St -14.5 (-15.0) at Northwestern

DD Road Favorites are 23-9-1 ATS this season and 32-1 SU.
Penn St 12-2 ATS L14 overall.

Northwestern 2-0 SUATS L2 vs Penn St H/A)
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Iowa -18.5 (-16.9) vs Illinois

DD Home Favs are 44.6% this season.
Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.
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Michigan St +10 (+10.2) at Michigan

DD Home Favs are 44.6% this season.
Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.

Michigan 0-9-1 ATS L10 vs Michigan St
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N.Illinois -23.5 (-41.9) vs Kent St

Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.

N.Illinois 3-6 ATS L9 at Home after a Road loss.
N.Illinois 2-4-1 ATS L7 as 20+ favorites.
N.Illinois 8-0-1 ATS L9 games.
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E.Michigan +13.5 (+5.9) at Toledo

E.Michigan 10-1 ATS L11 as a Dog, 6-5 SU.
E.Michigan 7-0 ATS L7 on the Road, 5-2 SU.
E.Michigan 14-4 ATS L18 overall.
E.Michigan 13-2 Under L15 games.
E.Michigan 5-0 Under L5 games as a Dog.

Toledo 0-4 ATS L4 at Home.
Toledo 1-6 ATS L7 overall.

DD Home Favs are 44.6% this season.
Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.
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Miami,OH -14 (-12.6) vs Bowling Green

DD Home Favs are 44.6% this season.
Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.

Miami 0-4 ATS L4 as a Home Fav.
Miami 9-1 Under L10 as a Home Fav.
Miami 16-5 Under L21 as a Fav.

Bowling Green 4-14 SUATS L18 overall, Under 12-5.
Bowling Green 0-4 SUATS L4 as a Dog, Under 3-0-1.
Bowling Green 8-0-1 Under Last 9 games.
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Ohio -12 (-10.9) vs C.Michigan

DD Home Favs are 44.6% this season.

C.Michigan 3-12 ATS L15.
_____________________________________

Duke +2.5 (-3.3) at Virginia

Duke 5-33 SU in a Road Conference game after a Road loss since 2002, 23-14-1 ATS, 3-6-1 ATS L10.
Duke 9-3 ATS L12 overall.

Virginia 2-7-1 ATS L10 vs Duke, but 2-0 SUATS L2 seasons.
Virginia 1-7-1 ATS L9 at Home after a Road win.
Virginia 0-10-3 ATS since 2007 as a Home Fav in a Conference game.
Virginia 6-16-2 ATS L24 as a Fav.
Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.
___________________________________

Virginia Tech -16.5 (-8.1) at Boston College

DD Road Favorites are 23-9-1 ATS this season and 32-1 SU.
Virginia Tech won 49-0 at Home last season.
Virginia Tech 7-2 ATS L9.

Home Dogs 2-8 ATS this season in the ACC.
Boston College 0-7 SUATS L7 as a Home Dog.
Boston College 3-12 ATS L15 at Home.
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Arkansas -2.5 (+5.9) at S.Carolina

Arkansas 0-3 SUATS L3 as a Road Fav of 3 or less.
Arkansas 0-5 ATS L5 as a Road Fav.
Arkansas 10-4 ATS L14 on the Road.

S.Carolina 8-2 ATS L10 as a Home Dog.
S.Carolina 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS L6 as a Home Dog of 3 or less

Over 7-1 L8 in series.
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Kentucky -10 (-28.9) vs Missouri

DD Home Favs are 44.6% this season.
Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.

Kentucky won the last 2 vs Missouri including a 35-21 road win last season, where Missouri scored 14 of their 21 points in the 4th Quarter.
Kentucky 1-6 ATS L7 as DD Favorites.
Kentucky 0-4 ATS, but 4-0 SU L4 as a Fav.

Missouri 0-6 ATS L6 and 2-10 ATS L12 as DD Dogs.
Missouri 4-12 ATS L16 as a Dog.
Missouri 0-7 ATS L7 as a Dog.
____________________________________

Florida -2.5 (-13.1) vs LSU

Florida 2-5 SUATS L7 vs LSU.
Florida 3-2 SUATS L5 at Home vs LSU.
Florida 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 L8 Home Conference games.

LSU 2-6 ATS L8 on the Road, 2-5 SU.

LSU 0-5 SUATS as a Road Dog in a Conference game.
LSU 0-5 SUATS L5 as a Dog, Under 7-0 L7.
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Colorado -6.5 (-11.4) vs Arizona

Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.

Colorado won 49-24 in Arizona last season and 14 of Arizona's points came in 4th Q garbage time.
Colorado 10-1 SU L11 as a HF in a Conference game, Under 6-1 L7.
Colorado 4-2 ATS L6 as a HF in a Conference game.
Colorado 7-0 SU L7 as a HF of 5 or more in a Conference game.
Colorado 2-6 ATS L8 overall.
Colorado 0-4 ATS L4 games at Home.

Arizona 2-9 ATS L11 and 0-4 ATS L4 as a Road Dog of 5 or more in a Conference game.
Arizona 0-7 SU L7 as a Road Dog of 5 or more in a Conference game.
Arizona 1-7 ATS L8 as a Road Dog.
Arizona 1-6 ATS L7 on the Road.
Arizona 4-14 ATS L18 games overall.
Arizona 5-17 ATS L22 as a Dog.

Last 5 of 6 in series have went Over.
Under 7-1 L8 Colorado games.
______________________________________

W.Virginia +13.5 (+17.4) at TCU

W.Virginia 0-6 SUATS L6 as a Dog.

TCU 1-7-1 ATS L9 at Home.
TCU 3-10-1 ATS as a Fav.

DD Home Favs are 44.6% this season.
Home Favs were 9-19-2 ATS last season in week 6.
____________________________________

Hawaii -4 (+8.1) at Nevada

Nevada 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at Home vs Hawaii.
Nevada 0-4 SUATS L4 overall.
Nevada 1-5 ATS L6 games at Home.
Nevada 1-6 SUATS L7 as a Home Dog.

Hawaii won last year at Home 38-17 with 14 of Nevada's 17 points coming in the 4th Quarter when it was 38-3.
Hawaii 1-4 ATS L5 on the Road.
Hawaii 0-4 ATS L4 as a Road Fav.
Hawaii 1-9 ATS L10 as a Fav.
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Colorado St -7.5 (-4.2) at Utah St

Colorado St 7-0 ATS L7 on the Road.
Colorado St 12-4 ATS L16 overall.

Utah St 2-7-1 ATS L10 as a Dog.
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C.Florida -17.5 (-16.0) at Cincinnati

DD Road Favorites are 23-9-1 ATS this season and 32-1 SU.
C.Florida 7-2 ATS L9 as a Fav, Under 7-2.

Cincinnati 1-9 ATS L10 at Home, Under 6-3.

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Temple -2.5 (-2.5) at E.Carolina

E.Carolina 2-12-1 ATS L15.
E.Carolina 0-5 SUATS L5 at Home.
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SMU +6.5 (+16.7) at Houston

SMU 9-2-1 ATS L12 overall, Over 8-4.
SMU 12-3 OU L15 as a Road Dog, 5-0 Over L5 on the Road.
SMU 2-13 SU L15 as a Road Dog.

Houston 2-9 ATS L11 as a Fav, Under 8-2-1.
Houston 3-9 ATS L12 overall, Under 9-2-1.
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**Cardinals01** · 10-05-17, 09:45 AM

Great info, I'll be following.

**BigdaddyQH** · 10-05-17, 11:45 AM

Nice writeup. Do not fall into the Mark Lawrence trap. For every technical stat you can find, I can find another that goes the opposite way. Some of these stats are just wrong. Some do not tell the entire story. Example: "Purdue 3-0 SUATS L3 as HF of 5 or less." First. That record should be 2-0. They covered this season and last season against Nevada, but did not cover against Central Michigan in 2014 (17-38 as a 3 point favorite). Second, the fact that we are talking about 3 games in a span of 3+ years makes this stat rather meaningless. Another example of traps to avoid: "TCU 3-10-1 ATS as a Fav." True, but TCU was 0-7 ATS last season and is 2-0 ATS this season.

I like your style and I am not being critical of you. I am just pointing out that you have to do some research to get the real truth about some of these stats. Lawrence and the people that use this system want to make themselves look as good as they can, so they will forget certain facts to make others look good. GL this season.

**FUqer** · 10-05-17, 04:36 PM

You're right and I'm glad you brought it because I've explained this a few times in my MLB thread where I did daily SDQL posts and IMO it's not even has good for football as baseball. But it does help and I look them up anyway to see what I find and sometimes I come across something good or they add up, but that's just one tool I use and I tried to explain before, it's the easiest part for me to share with people instead of writing a book report out on every game of everything I research and my thoughts. I don't know what I'll find sometimes until I type in the query in the database and start changing variables. I'll share a lot trends that I don't care about it, but I think others might, cuz I never know how someone else will interpret that trend. Some of it might be unnecessary, but it helps me catch up on some experience that I don't have that others have. Before 2014 I only played occasional football parlays and didn't really know how to cap games. I don't want to try to be a sharp or a tout and sell anything and I would never recommend anyone following anyone without doing their own work, and I don't want to rely on one single method like trends or modeling, I want to be able to use all the tools in the shed to build the right card, but it's still a learning process and I love to learn.

About Purdue, I think you are missing the S.Illinois game in Week 4 2014, which would make them 3-0. It's still pretty irrelevant and when there is a significant change in coaching like with Purdue, it makes a lot of the past team trends useless anyway. It would be better to see how favs of 5 or less have done across the NCAA this season and in recent history and in the Conference, etc... and in that case Favs of 5 or less are hitting at less than 44% ATS this season and 44.1% ATS last season. And Home Favs of 5 or less this season have done even worse at 7-20-1 ATS and only 42.5% ATS last season. But that kind of stuff I save for when I look deeper into specific games along with the match-ups which is always important.

team=PUR and F and line>=-5 and season>=2014

3-1-0 (8.50, 75.0%)
3-1-0 (5.12, 75.0%)	avg line: -3.4	+6: 3-1-0 (75.0%)	-6: 2-2-0 (50.0%)	+10: 3-1-0 (75.0%)	-10: 2-2-0 (50.0%)
2-2-0 (-4.75, 50.0%)	avg total: 56.2	+6: 0-3-1 (0.0%)	-6: 3-1-0 (75.0%)	+10: 0-4-0 (0.0%)	-10: 3-1-0 (75.0%)

41.5	182.8	32.0	249.2	18.5	2.0	6.8	13.0	4.2	6.0	30.0
35.5	117.8	30.0	209.0	18.5	1.2	7.0	4.2	5.2	5.0	21.5

Sep 06, 2014	box	Saturday	2	2014	PUR	CMCH	home	0-14	7-7	3-7	7-10	17-38	-3.0	54.0	-21	-24.0	1	-11.5	12.5	L	L	O
Sep 20, 2014	box	Saturday	4	2014	PUR	SIL	home	17-0	11-3	0-7	7-3	35-13	-2.0	53.0	22	20	-5	7.5	-12.5	W	W	U
Sep 24, 2016	box	Saturday	4	2016	PUR	NEV	home	0-7	10-7	7-0	7-0	24-14	-5.0	59.0	10	5	-21	-8.0	-13.0	W	W	U
Sep 08, 2017	box	Friday	2	2017	PUR	OHU	home	10-7	24-0	7-7	3-7	44-21	-3.5	59.0	23	19.5	6	12.8	-6.8	W	W	O
Oct 07, 2017		Saturday	6	2017	PUR	MIN	home						-4.0	46.5

**FUqer** · 10-05-17, 04:59 PM

I parlayed Arkansas St and D-Backs last night in my baseball thread, tonight Louisville and the Indians ML parlay is tempting. And the Patriots shouldn't be favored tonight by any of my numbers, but not touching that one. I'm still debating whether or not I want to make some NFL plays this week cuz there is some games I like and I shouldn't let them assholes take money away from me if I see opportunities, they still won't get a dime from merchandise or ticket sales and if I ever decide to watch games again, I'll stream them. I do like the Chargers, Lions and Packers though and I'm getting a strong feeling that the books really like the Bengals, kinda like tonight with the Patriots, but the Bengals don't have Brady to help explain it.

**FUqer** · 10-05-17, 06:01 PM

Passing on everything tonight.