UFC on FX 1: Points Contest

[gabe]

for sure he butted heads re: hettes/phan

[The HOFF]

*PICK EVERY FIGHT*
Please list odds behind pick (example: Jim Miller -170)

1. Melvin Guillard +150
1. Jim Miller -170

2. Josh Neer -110
2. Duane Ludwig -110

3. Christian Morecraft +145
3. Pat Barry -165

4. Jared Papazian +280
4. Mike Easton -340

5. Tommy Hayden +265
5. Fabricio Camoes -325

6. Joseph Sandoval +200
6. Nick Denis -240

7. Daniel Roberts +250
7. Charlie Brenneman -300

8. Jorge Rivera +135
8. Eric Schafer -155

9. Khabib Nurmagomedev +115
9. Kamal Shalorus -135

10. Pat Schilling +100
10. Daniel Pineda -120

Tiebreaker 1:
What round will Miller/Guillard end? 1,2,3 or DEC
Tiebreaker 2:
What Round will Barry/Morecraft end? 1,2,3 or DEC

You are NOT allowed to edit your post.
Picks must be in before 6PM ET on Friday Jan 20th.

Winner is based on units won.

Lines. In case you missed this post.

[The HOFF]

Boy, you are funny, saying something that others have said a hundred times already. lmao about as original as a hundred year old knock-knock joke.

But we were talking about opposing fighters we were backing/arguing about, what would a last minute instinct bet have to do with that? What a fool. If you want to be funny to get people to like you, learn to wait and find something legitimate to poke fun of. This did not make sense to the context of the conversation.

But yeah, a couple names I just remembered that V and I went against each other on- Stipe Miocic, Jake Hecht, John Maguire... there should be many more if you'd search previous threads.

But that's how you claim to be a winner. You claim to be on the right side more than Vaughany. You're on the right side because you take the right side AFTER THE FIGHT. You're calling out one of the best cappers here, saying that you are better than him. He has a completely documented record that is up over 500 units. You have no documentation and claim to be a winner with bets after the fights have taken place.

[FightFightFight]

1. Melvin Guillard +150
2. Josh Neer -110
3. Christian Morecraft +145
4. Mike Easton -340
5. Fabricio Camoes -325
6. Nick Denis -240
7. Daniel Roberts +250
8. Eric Schafer -155
9. Kamal Shalorus -135
10. Pat Schilling +100
Tiebreaker 1:
What round will Miller/Guillard end? DEC
Tiebreaker 2:
What Round will Barry/Morecraft end? 1

[trevlyn1983]

1. Jim Miller -170
2. Duane Ludwig -110
3. Pat Barry -165
4. Jared Papazian +280
5. Tommy Hayden +265
6. Nick Denis -240
7. Charlie Brenneman -300
8. Eric Schafer -155
9. Khabib Nurmagomedev +115
10. Pat Schilling +100

Tiebreaker 1:
What round will Miller/Guillard end? DEC
Tiebreaker 2:
What Round will Barry/Morecraft end? 2

[Vaughany]

Boy, you are funny, saying something that others have said a hundred times already. lmao about as original as a hundred year old knock-knock joke.

But we were talking about opposing fighters we were backing/arguing about, what would a last minute instinct bet have to do with that? What a fool. If you want to be funny to get people to like you, learn to wait and find something legitimate to poke fun of. This did not make sense to the context of the conversation.

But yeah, a couple names I just remembered that V and I went against each other on- Stipe Miocic, Jake Hecht, John Maguire... there should be many more if you'd search previous threads.

The only one there that you could claim I went against you on was Jake Hecht as I bet on Attonito - who was clearly winning the fight until getting caught.

I don't recall ever going "against" you on Miocic. In your thread I said "Wow some horrible odds with those! GL tho". Does that mean I was picking Beltran?
Furthermore, in response to somebody saying Rolles Gracie was also big fave over Beltran I said...

"Rolles Gracie was/is very one-dimensional though, at least Miocic is not only a high level wrestler but also a Golden Gloves Champ."

And I had Miocic in a parlay!


And with Maguire if you go back to your thread you'll see that I made no reference to that fight at all. And on the thread that you created I didn't make any reference to the fight... http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...n-maguire.html

In fact the only references I made were on page 1 of the UFC 138 thread where I posted videos of Maguire in response (and in agreement) with Illmatick who said he saw value in Maguire. And also on my thread where I said the following:

Should say that although Cariaso is rightly the favourite, I do think Vaughan may be worth a play at +150 or better. Waiting for the pinnacle and sportbet lines to come out before I pull the trigger though. I'd love to play Vaughan straight up hedged with Cariaso by decision in perfect world. At the moment I'm looking at playing Young at +300, Vaughan at +150 and Maguire at Evens, and possible Broughton at +115...all underdogs and like the chances of at least 2 coming off

So you've basically just made both of those up

[gabe]

But that's how you claim to be a winner. You claim to be on the right side more than Vaughany. You're on the right side because you take the right side AFTER THE FIGHT. You're calling out one of the best cappers here, saying that you are better than him. He has a completely documented record that is up over 500 units. You have no documentation and claim to be a winner with bets after the fights have taken place.

What are you talking about? Most of the bets I "claimed" to have made on fights after they took place were LOSERS, so how does that make me look good?

I never called anybody out. I p0int out that I've had a better success rate when we're on opposing ends of a fight when I'm being put down, that does not mean I'm calling him out or claiming to be better. He could be right about his next 100 fights and I could be wrong about my next 100.

I have "documentation" over the past few months. Documentation of me being around 14-0 with my major plays since i've been posting here. All my threads are "documentation."

You can't even compare me to Vaughany. I make picks and give opinions, he makes bets and gives opinions. You know where I stand on all my UFC on FX 1 picks, but he has no picks for the card, just bets made on both fighters in the same match just to make chump change. That's him being a smart gambler and making a couple of bucks and showing everyone he can do it, it's not advising anybody to make a big play on a certain fighter. I respect what he does, but we're not alike, and I don't compare myself to him much less claim to be better.

And the only time I claimed to have won a bet with a fight that had already taken place, I provided a screencap for proof, so take the word "claim" and shove it right up your...

[gabe]

The only one there that you could claim I went against you on was Jake Hecht as I bet on Attonito - who was clearly winning the fight until getting caught. I don't recall ever going "against" you on Miocic. In your thread I said "Wow some horrible odds with those! GL tho". Does that mean I was picking Beltran? Furthermore, in response to somebody saying Rolles Gracie was also big fave over Beltran I said... "Rolles Gracie was/is very one-dimensional though, at least Miocic is not only a high level wrestler but also a Golden Gloves Champ." And I had Miocic in a parlay! And with Maguire if you go back to your thread you'll see that I made no reference to that fight at all. And on the thread that you created I didn't make any reference to the fight... http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...n-maguire.html In fact the only references I made were on page 1 of the UFC 138 thread where I posted videos of Maguire in response (and in agreement) with Illmatick who said he saw value in Maguire. And also on my thread where I said the following: So you've basically just made both of those up

Most of out butting-heads weren't in my thread.

I know I argued Maguire and for sure Miocic with a lot of people. If not you, then I don't know who.

There have been so many times, man... Only fight we're on opposing ends of for this card is Barry/Morecraft- let's see how that goes!

[Vaughany]

What are you talking about? Most of the bets I "claimed" to have made on fights after they took place were LOSERS, so how does that make me look good?

I never called anybody out. I p0int out that I've had a better success rate when we're on opposing ends of a fight when I'm being put down, that does not mean I'm calling him out or claiming to be better. He could be right about his next 100 fights and I could be wrong about my next 100.

I have "documentation" over the past few months. Documentation of me being around 14-0 with my major plays since i've been posting here. All my threads are "documentation."

You can't even compare me to Vaughany. I make picks and give opinions, he makes bets and gives opinions. You know where I stand on all my UFC on FX 1 picks, but he has no picks for the card, just bets made on both fighters in the same match just to make chump change. That's him being a smart gambler and making a couple of bucks and showing everyone he can do it, it's not advising anybody to make a big play on a certain fighter. I respect what he does, but we're not alike, and I don't compare myself to him much less claim to be better.

And the only time I claimed to have won a bet with a fight that had already taken place, I provided a screencap for proof, so take the word "claim" and shove it right up your...

haha conveniently miss out Rumble Johnson who was your uber-lock last wknd!

[Vaughany]

Most of out butting-heads weren't in my thread.

I know I argued Maguire and for sure Miocic with a lot of people. If not you, then I don't know who.

There have been so many times, man... Only fight we're on opposing ends of for this card is Barry/Morecraft- let's see how that goes!

Well you cant just say random names when it's not true.

Again though, it's not as black or white as you think. A lot of the time Im not saying it's necessarily the wrong pick, but I'm saying your analysis doesn't make sense such as Papazian subbing Easton for example, or that the odds you're betting on aren't good value (such as Brenneman at -300).

I'm not saying Morecraft beats Barry more often than Barry beats him. But he certainly doesnt lose 60% of the time tht the odds suggest, so if you're using Kelly's criterion or any abridged or altered version of Kelly then you have to bet Morecraft.

[MexicanStallion]

How many people have entered so far?

[gabe]

haha conveniently miss out Rumble Johnson who was your uber-lock last wknd!

I guess you didn't look further into that thread to see that I backed off on him being a lock and started shitting my pants from worry. I'm pretty sure you did, so I don't know why you're pretending you don't remember me backing off him being a lock.

Rumble went from being a lock to a prayer; from reading my posts, you knew that. So basically you just wasted a post and made me waste one with this response.

[Vaughany]

I guess you didn't look further into that thread to see that I backed off on him being a lock and started shitting my pants from worry. I'm pretty sure you did, so I don't know why you're pretending you don't remember me backing off him being a lock.

Rumble went from being a lock to a prayer; from reading my posts, you knew that. So basically you just wasted a post and made me waste one with this response.

hahaa ah yes he became a semi-lock....and you proceeded to bet more on him just before the fight.

[gabe]

Well you cant just say random names when it's not true.

Again though, it's not as black or white as you think. A lot of the time Im not saying it's necessarily the wrong pick, but I'm saying your analysis doesn't make sense such as Papazian subbing Easton for example, or that the odds you're betting on aren't good value (such as Brenneman at -300).

I'm not saying Morecraft beats Barry more often than Barry beats him. But he certainly doesnt lose 60% of the time tht the odds suggest, so if you're using Kelly's criterion or any abridged or altered version of Kelly then you have to bet Morecraft.

WTF? My analysis was that Papazian takes it to a decision. The fact that I mention Papazian by Submission would be a nice prop bet at the great odds means that I'm saying he will end the fight via submission? How can you think that when in the same sentence I say Papazian by decision and Fight goes the distance??? You are purposely acting stupid, I don't believe are you this stupid.

[gabe]

hahaa ah yes he became a semi-lock....and you proceeded to bet more on him just before the fight.

Yes. "Go big or go home" situation, as clearly stated. Betting on Vitor wasn't going to help me. I needed Rumble to get a quick KO big, so I threw another $50 on him.

You think that when I become afraid that a fighter will gass out and lose that he is a semi-lock? No, son. When he goes from being a lock to me being worried, he is not a semi-lock. He is a prayer, as I said in my previous post.

You are pusposely being stupid and trying to annoy me. F*ck off.

[Vaughany]

WTF? My analysis was that Papazian takes it to a submission. The fact that I mention Papazian by Submission would be a nice prop bet at the great odds means that I'm saying he will end the fight via submission? How can you think that when in the same sentence I say Papazian by decision and Fight goes the distance??? You are purposely acting stupid, I don't believe are you this stupid.

Jared Papazian +280 > Mike Easton (4.5/5)

Anyone who locked Papazian up early is lucky. I am personally hoping and waiting for him to go back above +300. Easton made his UFC debut just a few months ago against another promotional newcomer in Byron Bloodworth, whom he ate up with his superior striking. You could see Easton slowing down a bit in the second round. You won't be seeing that with Papazian. Jared has tremendous conditioning and will start the third round as if it's the first round while Easton comes in tired. Papazian used to fight at 155 and plans to drop to the UFC's 125 division after this bout. He has fought in three five-round fights in 2011, and was in such good shape, he could have gone another five. He came out successful in two of those bouts. Now on a three fight win streak, he looks to make an impact in the UFC, leaving the 135 division on a high note and chasing after the 125 title. He is going to be in Easton's face from the beginning of the first round bell to the end of the third round bell. He is going to throw everything he can at Easton. He is going to pressure him. Jared Papazian is a very talented newcomer who has great coaching and training partners. He is hungry for this fight and although on short notice, he is ready for it. I find Mike Easton to be a talented striker, but Jared is durable, so I don't see Mike putting him away. I can see Jared getting a submission or a knockout, but more than likely it will go to a decision, and he will take at least 2 out of 3 rounds. Jared Papazian +3.5 would be a good prop bet, as would Fight Goes the Distance, Over Rd 1, Over Rd 2, and Jared Papazian by Decision. I can't wait for this fight, it's gonna be a good one. Place a bet for FIGHT OF THE NIGHT, if it's available. In conclusion, I am taking Jared Papazian, ranked 49th in the world at 135 as a big underdog against Mike Easton, ranked 66th in the world at 135.

[gabe]

I can see him getting a submission or a knockout, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL GO TO A DECISION...

Yes, keep hitting yourself in the head, you dope. Go find your reading glasses so you can read entire sentences.

The analysis clearly favors the fight going to a decision. You dumb, dumb guy.

Judo guys don't have trouble subbing BJJ black belts, so I'm a little more confident in that possibility than you are, dumb-boy.

Go bet on two guys fighting each other to make 50 cents. LOL pu$$y

[Vaughany]

I can see him getting a submission or a knockout, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL GO TO A DECISION...

Yes, keep hitting yourself in the head, you dope. Go find your reading glasses so you can read entire sentences.

The analysis clearly favors the fight going to a decision. You dumb, dumb guy.

Judo guys don't have trouble subbing BJJ black belts, so I'm a little more confident in that possibility than you are, dumb-boy.

Go bet on two guys fighting each other to make 50 cents. LOL pu$$y

He's talented, has good footwork, but his conditioning kinda sucks. He tired out early against Bloodworth, but still managed to get the KO.

I think Papazian has several advantages, but so does Easton... at a big dog price, Papazian would be a beautiful play. He's gonna drop to 125 after this fight and be a force in that division, but I think he leaves 135 with a win. He'll tap Easton out or judo toss him down against the cage and beat him against it. I can totally see him taking a decision or pulling off an armbar or something.

Not sayin it can't happen. Stranger things have - Semerzier tapping Wagney Fabiano. The chances are very small tho

[Vaughany]

I can see him getting a submission or a knockout, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL GO TO A DECISION...

Yes, keep hitting yourself in the head, you dope. Go find your reading glasses so you can read entire sentences.

The analysis clearly favors the fight going to a decision. You dumb, dumb guy.

Judo guys don't have trouble subbing BJJ black belts, so I'm a little more confident in that possibility than you are, dumb-boy.

Go bet on two guys fighting each other to make 50 cents. LOL pu$$y

You should be good with numbers what with being autistic and all. Had a return of £1050 last event....that's a lot of 50 cents

[gabe]

Not sayin it can't happen. Stranger things have - Semerzier tapping Wagney Fabiano. The chances are very small tho

Is Semerzier skilled in judo and submissions like Papazian is?

Can Semerzier use his judo/submission skills to tap a BJJ black belt while grappling? Papazian has.

You gotta understand, a BJJ black belt doesn't mean much to these Armenian fighters. Papazian is not on the same level as Gamburyan, though. He didn't even start fighting 'til he was 16. Gamburyan was winning championships at 16. But still, if Papazian gets the chance of an armbar or kimura or some other submission, he'll be successful. Might have trouble with a guillotine and rear naked choke, but if he catche a limb, he can finish it.

That is a longshot, though. Only because he won't be looking for it. If anything, he'll be looking to score a knockout.

And I know the chances are small. I didn't say make a big play on it lol it was a prop that would have a nice return if it hit and the chances of hit hitting aren't awful IMO-- but my analysis strongly suggested the fight goes the distance

[Vaughany]

Is Semerzier skilled in judo and submissions like Papazian is?

Can Semerzier use his judo/submission skills to tap a BJJ black belt while grappling? Papazian has.

You gotta understand, a BJJ black belt doesn't mean much to these Armenian fighters. Papazian is not on the same level as Gamburyan, though. He didn't even start fighting 'til he was 16. Gamburyan was winning championships at 16. But still, if Papazian gets the chance of an armbar or kimura or some other submission, he'll be successful. Might have trouble with a guillotine and rear naked choke, but if he catche a limb, he can finish it.

That is a longshot, though. Only because he won't be looking for it. If anything, he'll be looking to score a knockout.

hahahahaha This is pure GOLD.

Can't wait for Edu and Nunya to see this.

[gabe]

You should be good with numbers what with being autistic and all. Had a return of £1050 last event....that's a lot of 50 cents

one thousand and fifty euros? over 2 grand?

you said you're gonna profit 2 units from the pineda fight, and you said each unit was some amount of cents, so i don't see how you're satisfied with profiting 2 units. or how you could call that a unit. people usually refer to $100 or $1,000 as a unit.

[gabe]

hahahahaha This is pure GOLD. Can't wait for Edu and Nunya to see this.

So you're saying Semerzier has judo skills and is talented with submissions? OK!

Hope your boyfriends find that funny!

You are such a kiss-ass brown noser to those guys, it's not even funny. Even when they say something funny that really isn't, you break out in laughter. Such a phony.

[Vaughany]

one thousand and fifty euros? over 2 grand?

you said you're gonna profit 2 units from the pineda fight, and you said each unit was some amount of cents, so i don't see how you're satisfied with profiting 2 units. or how you could call that a unit. people usually refer to $100 or $1,000 as a unit.

It's called Bankroll management Gabe. Those 2 units I'll profit from the Pineda fight are RISK free. For a fight that I don't have a strong lean on I'll happily take any free profit.

[Vaughany]

So you're saying Semerzier has judo skills and is talented with submissions? OK!

Hope your boyfriends find that funny!

You are such a kiss-ass brown noser to those guys, it's not even funny. Even when they say something funny that really isn't, you break out in laughter. Such a phony.

I suggest you go and watch the Mackens Semerzier and Wagney Fabiano fight Gabe....you're just making this worse for yourself. It's getting too cringe-worthy now.

[gabe]

It's called Bankroll management Gabe. Those 2 units I'll profit from the Pineda fight are RISK free. For a fight that I don't have a strong lean on I'll happily take any free profit.

You don't have a strong lean on any of the fights on this card, so how are you helpful? Showing off that you catch early lines and bet opposite your fighter when the line changes to make a couple bucks doesn't help anybody going through your thread looking for solid plays/leans.

You are someone I could easily get along with but you love to always find things to use against me so your boyfriends will give you a pat on the back.

Congrats on the risk free $0.65 you're gonna make on that fight. I'm risking $50 to win $60 on Schilling. If he wins, I'm up $60. If he loses, I'm down $50, but at least I know that I had the balls to risk it. What you're doing is more like a can collectors version of a gambler. It's better to lose $50 on the chance of winning $60 than it is to have a guaranteed $0.60 (or even $10) Maybe if you arbed so well that you guaranteed yourself $100, then I'd be more for it!

[gabe]

I suggest you go and watch the Mackens Semerzier and Wagney Fabiano fight Gabe....you're just making this worse for yourself. It's getting too cringe-worthy now.

You are telling me that you're shocked that a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter submitted a more talented Jiu Jitsu fighter

lol purple belts submit black belts. it happens. surely, someone with vast mma knowledge such as yourself already knew that. i mean, you have been posting here for over a year, after all! with a record and everything! rofl

[Vaughany]

You don't have a strong lean on any of the fights on this card, so how are you helpful? Showing off that you catch early lines and bet opposite your fighter when the line changes to make a couple bucks doesn't help anybody going through your thread looking for solid plays/leans.

You are someone I could easily get along with but you love to always find things to use against me so your boyfriends will give you a pat on the back.

Congrats on the risk free $0.65 you're gonna make on that fight. I'm risking $50 to win $60 on Schilling. If he wins, I'm up $60. If he loses, I'm down $50, but at least I know that I had the balls to risk it. What you're doing is more like a can collectors version of a gambler. It's better to lose $50 on the chance of winning $60 than it is to have a guaranteed $0.60 (or even $10) Maybe if you arbed so well that you guaranteed yourself $100, then I'd be more for it!

Which I have on numerous fights. Have a look at my results from UFC 142...made £200 risk free just from the Rumble/Belfort fight. Made another risk free £75 from Etim/Barboza being fight of the night. Got a guaranteed £130 no matter what happens in the Rigondeaux/Ramos boxing fight this weekend as I got Over 10.5 at -120 and under at +225. Just because I'm only making £20 from the Schilling fight doesnt mean Im not making 10 times that from other fights that I arb on. And is $0.65 now the same as £20? Are you retarded or have the exchange rates completely gone crazy today?

[gabe]

Which I have on numerous fights. Have a look at my results from UFC 142...made £200 risk free just from the Rumble/Belfort fight. Made another risk free £75 from Etim/Barboza being fight of the night. Got a guaranteed £130 no matter what happens in the Rigondeaux/Ramos boxing fight this weekend as I got Over 10.5 at -120 and under at +225. Just because I'm only making £20 from the Schilling fight doesnt mean Im not making 10 times that from other fights that I arb on. And is $0.65 now the same as £20? Are you retarded or have the exchange rates completely gone crazy today?

You bet big on AJ then big on Belfort when line moved?

[Vaughany]

You are telling me that you're shocked that a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter submitted a more talented Jiu Jitsu fighter

lol purple belts submit black belts. it happens. surely, someone with vast mma knowledge such as yourself already knew that. i mean, you have been posting here for over a year, after all! with a record and everything! rofl

What are you talking about!? Im seriously starting to think you might have some mental problems bro. No I'm not shocked that a purple belt submitted a black belt...the whole point of me saying that Semerzier subbed Wagney was that it does happen in MMA - purple belts submit Black belts....try actually reading what is put. You then came back saying...

"Can Semerzier use his judo/submission skills to tap a BJJ black belt while grappling? Papazian has."

"So you're saying Semerzier has judo skills and is talented with submissions? OK!"

[Vaughany]

You bet big on AJ then big on Belfort when line moved?

Yes, go and look at my thread... I knew AJ was going to end up favourite, it was obvious that there were a lot of naive bettors out there like you who thought AJ was going to run through Belfort so maxed out on Rumble at +120 then took Belfort at Evens so had risk free play on Belfort. And after the weigh-in fiasco anybody with any sense would of arbed out of their Rumble plays if they could.

[Vaughany]

You don't have a strong lean on any of the fights on this card, so how are you helpful? Showing off that you catch early lines and bet opposite your fighter when the line changes to make a couple bucks doesn't help anybody going through your thread looking for solid plays/leans.

You are someone I could easily get along with but you love to always find things to use against me so your boyfriends will give you a pat on the back.

Congrats on the risk free $0.65 you're gonna make on that fight. I'm risking $50 to win $60 on Schilling. If he wins, I'm up $60. If he loses, I'm down $50, but at least I know that I had the balls to risk it. What you're doing is more like a can collectors version of a gambler. It's better to lose $50 on the chance of winning $60 than it is to have a guaranteed $0.60 (or even $10) Maybe if you arbed so well that you guaranteed yourself $100, then I'd be more for it!

I have a strong lean on Neer at evens or better. Go and read my thread

[gabe]

Yes, go and look at my thread... I knew AJ was going to end up favourite, it was obvious that there were a lot of naive bettors out there like you who thought AJ was going to run through Belfort so maxed out on Rumble at +120 then took Belfort at Evens so had risk free play on Belfort. And after the weigh-in fiasco anybody with any sense would of arbed out of their Rumble plays if they could.

LOL This is so funny. You are counting out the only reason Rumble didn't in fact run through Vitor was because he gassed after 2 mins. Had his weight cut not been a problem, Vitor would have been done.

You got lucky. Those "naive bettors" got screwed. That fight was a fluke. Only way I could give you credit for that is if you knew that Rumble wouldn't make weight and would be unhealthy, dehydrated, and malnourished going into the fight.


You weren't that confident in Neer before but you are now? I'll back you on him, but what made you go from being unsure to sure?

[Vaughany]

LOL This is so funny. You are counting out the only reason Rumble didn't in fact run through Vitor was because he gassed after 2 mins. Had his weight cut not been a problem, Vitor would have been done.

You got lucky. Those "naive bettors" got screwed. That fight was a fluke. Only way I could give you credit for that is if you knew that Rumble wouldn't make weight and would be unhealthy, dehydrated, and malnourished going into the fight.


You weren't that confident in Neer before but you are now? I'll back you on him, but what made you go from being unsure to sure?

Well that is pure speculation. Maybe he would of run through him, but who was the smarter bettor - the one who added more to Rumble or the one who arbed out and had a risk free bet on Belfort? And how did I get lucky...once again the bet was "RISK FREE" - I had nothing to lose!

I wasn't confident in Neer being smart, and I'm still not confident - you don't have to be sure to make a bet. I wasnt sure or necessarily confident that Felipe Arantes would beat Carvalho but still bet him because the value was there at +197. Same with Neer, I see value at Evens or better as I think his only disadvantage is in technique, and potential to abandon a game-plan. He's the bigger, stronger, more resilient fighter and superior grappler so if anything he should be a slight favourite - and if you look at the odds he now is the slight favourite on most books. But Ludwig could pick him apart to a decision, or could even get a TKO all be it unlikely. Neer said after the Wisnewski fight that tht was the first fight where he actually stuck to a gameplan and implemented it. He seemed pretty happy about it so I'd be very surprised if a) his gameplan with Ludwig isnt to take it to the ground at some point; and b) that he doesnt stick to that gameplan.

Like I said though, Im not confident, but the value is there to warrant a play.

[gabe]

Respek.

But I don't think it's speculation that Rumble could easily beat Vitor. That fight proved that he could. If he didn't gas, that would be an easy win for him. That was clear to everybody watching the fight. Rumble missing weight then gassing was all a gift to Vitor. Otherwise, he didn't stand a chance.