UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem

[BIGDAY]

More action on Lesnar?

Would have thought the line would go the other way. Or are we getting some RLM in MMA?

[proposition joe]

You seriously have Cerrone capped at -500 against Nate? Dang...

In any case, you don't have to have someone capped at -500 to feel they are a lock. Seth Baczsynski was +130 (I personally had him capped at around -190) against Matt Brown and it was one of my biggest locks of the year.

What? Bacsynski was one of my biggest plays as well and capped it the same as you. Since when is -190 a lock?

And having Cerrone -500 against Nate Diaz is a headscratcher

[gabe]

What? Bacsynski was one of my biggest plays as well and capped it the same as you. Since when is -190 a lock?

And having Cerrone -500 against Nate Diaz is a headscratcher

Since when is -190 a lock? lol since when is ANYTHING a lock? the presumed line has nothing to do with it being a lock, it's just an advantage. Seth B was a lock 'cos I felt certain he would win.

[Vaughany]

Since when is -190 a lock? lol since when is ANYTHING a lock? the presumed line has nothing to do with it being a lock, it's just an advantage. Seth B was a lock 'cos I felt certain he would win.

What he's sayin is that if you are certain somebody is going to win then -190 isn't a line that suggests utmost certainty when you see lines in MMA that are closer to -500 for big favourites.

[SportsPedagogy]

Lesnar via wrestling ... takedowns, ground and pound, tires overeem out .... Overeem has a punchers chance though ... Lesnar hs a bi polar chin !

[jacktheknife]

I've made a decent bit parleying MMA, and almost all of these big favorites have the smell of going bad. The problem is that you usually want to rely just as much on the inability of your fighter's opponent in these high probability bets. The opponents just match up too well.

Pearson and Fitch look good, but I highly reccommend that any high juice parleys on this card be round robins or from folds.

[jacktheknife]

Lesnar via wrestling ... takedowns, ground and pound, tires overeem out .... Overeem has a punchers chance though ... Lesnar hs a bi polar chin !

Lesnar wasn't wrong that the "no chin" talk is bullshit. He's exactly like Tito, he has a world class jaw, but when he gets hit, he freaks.

Doubt he'll ever say that about it, though. "I don't have a bad chin, I'm just a prima donna pussy!"

[gabe]

What he's sayin is that if you are certain somebody is going to win then -190 isn't a line that suggests utmost certainty when you see lines in MMA that are closer to -500 for big favourites.

I think is obvious what he was saying. I responded and said the line is irrelevant, all it is is an advantage/gift. It doesn't make it a lock.

[proposition joe]

I think is obvious what he was saying. I responded and said the line is irrelevant, all it is is an advantage/gift. It doesn't make it a lock.

What? You said you capped Bacsynski at -190 then said he was your biggest lock. If Bacsynski was a lock, then why would you only cap him at -190?

[Beelzebubzy]

Danny Castillo

"My one goal is to win," he said. "I don't really care about bonuses. It would be nice to have a bonus, but having a bonus and a loss on my record would be the same as losing. I hate losing. I love money, but I hate losing more."

And he admits Njokuani presents an attractive opportunity to win. It's not hard to see why. He has a strong wrestling base and an ability to dictate where the fight goes. Njokuani is a seasoned and athletic striker, but his ground game lags far behind.

[Vaughany]

How can this not be FOTN on Friday night!? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCbbx...&feature=share

[The HOFF]

How can this not be FOTN on Friday night!? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCbbx...&feature=share

I don't mind Nick, but Nate Diaz is such a bitch. Just a poser with that thug bad ass routine. Dude has the IQ of a retarded chimp.

[Vaughany]

I don't mind Nick, but Nate Diaz is such a bitch. Just a poser with that thug bad ass routine. Dude has the IQ of a retarded chimp.

ha It would seem that way. But it might also be a smart move on his part to piss Cerrone off. Diaz and his camp (Gracie) might be concerned about Cerrone following a Jackson game-plan and not being as gung-ho as he as been in fights in the past. For instance, many expected Guillard vs Stephens to be a FOTN contender, but Guillard went in there and played it safe. Diaz has a greater chance to win if it is a wild brawl as Cerrone will be more likely to make a couple mistakes that Diaz may be able to capitalize on.

[eligibletackle]

Are you retarded? Or have you just never seen Cerrone fight? The guy is just as much of a scrapper as Nate is.

yes and no. It's easy to dub so and so "game" but I don't think there's anything in Cerrone's arsenal that would cause Diaz to quit/wilt/fold on any level. Maybe I wanted to emphasize that Nate will come out of Rd 2 & 3 the same way he would out of the gate, doesn't matter. Point being, Diaz has been there w/ opponents tougher than Cerrone. Cerrone has padded his stats since coming to the UFC w/ great Ws over people who don't have the budo spirit Nate does. Should be a great fight and I really like Diaz at those #s.


any FoTN prop - sucker prop, but agree that this fight has the makings.

[blumpkin]

ANybody have an opinion on matt riddle vs luis ramos?? Looking at ramos 29 wins, 11 have come by the way of decision. Im assuming riddle might be able to control him with his wrestling.

[blumpkin]

should say ramos 19 wins

[Vaughany]

ANybody have an opinion on matt riddle vs luis ramos?? Looking at ramos 29 wins, 11 have come by the way of decision. Im assuming riddle might be able to control him with his wrestling.

Riddle should have a decent size advantage, but he isnt the smartest cookie

[NeverBackDown]

I see Overeem taking him out.

[Beelzebubzy]

Riddle should have a decent size advantage, but he isnt the smartest cookie

since Riddle is coming off 2 losses, I think he realizes this is for his job
He should play the Lawlor/Cote gameplan and LNP his way to job security

[jacktheknife]

Got Lesnar for +150 locally. Might buy back if it goes that way, but a good value nevertheless.

[ghost kid]

Gustaffson Vlog

http://www.studiomma.com/articles/it%E2%80%99s-mauling-time-alexander-gustafsson-blog-part-7-video

Janitor Vlog

http://www.heavy.com/mma/mma-videos/ufc-videos/2011/12/vladimir-matyushenko-a-passion-for-mma/

[gabe]

What? You said you capped Bacsynski at -190 then said he was your biggest lock. If Bacsynski was a lock, then why would you only cap him at -190?

I REPEAT - For the third time...

The LINE is IRRELEVANT to the fighter being a lock. All it is is an ADVANTAGE. NOT A LOCK!!!!! I had Hominick at -750 against Korean Zombie and he opened at -400. Does that mean it was a lock? NO!!! I didn't even touch the -400 juice. He eventually did become -750 by fight time, and Zombie was like +425, so I made a value play on the Zombie.

A lock is a lock when you personally feel 99% confident, for whatever reasons, that your fighter will win the fight.

If Bader was -150 against Ortiz (as opposed to the -650 he was,) you would think he was a lock, and I wouldn't.

Hope everyone gets it now.

[BIGDAY]

No worries Gabe! Just keep NAILIN em pal!

[NunyaBidness]

I had Hominick at -750 against Korean Zombie and he opened at -400. Does that mean it was a lock? NO!!! I didn't even touch the -400 juice. He eventually did become -750 by fight time, and Zombie was like +425, so I made a value play on the Zombie.

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

[Vaughany]

Dont forget to post your plays all those who are in the contest!

[Vaughany]

[FightFightFight]

*snicker*

[The HOFF]

The full UFC 141 weigh-in results included:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

• Brock Lesnar (266) vs. Alistair Overeem (263)
• Donald Cerrone (156) vs. Nate Diaz (157)*
• Jon Fitch (171) vs. Johny Hendricks (170)
• Alexander Gustafsson (203) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (205)
• Jim Hettes (145) vs. Nam Phan (146)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

• Junior Assuncao (145) vs. Ross Pearson (145)
• Danny Castillo (156) vs. Anthony Njokuani (154)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Dong Hyun Kim (171) vs. Sean Pierson (171)
• Efrain Escudero (155) vs. Jacob Volkmann (155)
• Luis Ramos (171) vs. Matt Riddle (170)
• Manny Gamburyan (146) vs. Diego Nunes (145)

[Lick496]

I was at the weigh ins, Brock looked skurred!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

I don't mind Nick, but Nate Diaz is such a bitch. Just a poser with that thug bad ass routine. Dude has the IQ of a retarded chimp.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[THE_LOCKSMITH]