UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem

[Vaughany]

who's smokebreak? lol

Fitch brahhh

[brooks85]

haha i was wondering that myself

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Well I think the way to play it is Overeem wins in round 1 and then Lesnar straight up.

or keep this fight up on live betting, in round one if Lesnar is able to take Overeem down in that 1st round make an early play on him

[eligibletackle]

1st time, long time.


Is anyone taking Cerrone at this price? I think Diaz is great over +200. His losses come from when he faces the superior wrestler or is is undersized / the weaker man @ 170. I think he gives Cerrone, who's been fighting like a man possessed, more than he can handle. Nate's more way durable than all of the UFC guys Cerrone has walked though since the WEC folded. It can be argued Nate has better hands, albiet a less diverse striking assault. Nate's submission game tops Cerrone's. Frankly I'd be all over Nate at any dog odds if it weren't for a few things,

a) Cerrone's team Jackson factor - Nate is predictable and has been bested by a Jackson gameplan as seen in the Joe Stevenson fight (Nate's standing kimura for tosses were all reversed by simple wrestling move). Cerrone should be able to adapt to the fight between rounds, Diaz will fight the same throughout. Cerrone will also mix in kicks as shown in the Diaz/MacDonald fight as it made Nate look inept

b) Cerrone taking Varner down at will - Maybe it was an uninspired performance by Varner, maybe it was the unexpectedness of the gameplan, but that's one aspect of Cerrone's game that could definitely fluster Nate.

Maybe there's something I'm forgetting, but I don't know how Cerrone has become so much of a favorite considering Nate's skillset.

[BIGDAY]

I like Cerrone. However, I have a wrestling bias.

I see Cowboy staying busy enough and if this fight goes to the ground Cerrone will stay very busy. Guy is relentless and will cruise to a decision if it goes the dist. Diaz will want to keep this fight standing so that he can utilize his boxing, however, I see Cerrone's striking as a bit unorthodox. If Diaz gets his hand raised it will by via submission IMO.

BOL with your wager.

1st time, long time.


Is anyone taking Cerrone at this price? I think Diaz is great over +200. His losses come from when he faces the superior wrestler or is is undersized / the weaker man @ 170. I think he gives Cerrone, who's been fighting like a man possessed, more than he can handle. Nate's more way durable than all of the UFC guys Cerrone has walked though since the WEC folded. It can be argued Nate has better hands, albiet a less diverse striking assault. Nate's submission game tops Cerrone's. Frankly I'd be all over Nate at any dog odds if it weren't for a few things,

a) Cerrone's team Jackson factor - Nate is predictable and has been bested by a Jackson gameplan as seen in the Joe Stevenson fight (Nate's standing kimura for tosses were all reversed by simple wrestling move). Cerrone should be able to adapt to the fight between rounds, Diaz will fight the same throughout. Cerrone will also mix in kicks as shown in the Diaz/MacDonald fight as it made Nate look inept

b) Cerrone taking Varner down at will - Maybe it was an uninspired performance by Varner, maybe it was the unexpectedness of the gameplan, but that's one aspect of Cerrone's game that could definitely fluster Nate.

Maybe there's something I'm forgetting, but I don't know how Cerrone has become so much of a favorite considering Nate's skillset.

[eligibletackle]

I don't know how unorthodox it is, but I'm guessing Cerrone should have a slight reach advantage. Nate will probably be the one to stalk during the standup if he has to close the distance, especially w/ leg kicks surely coming from Cerrone. I'm not sure how Cowboy could put Diaz away outside of an "oh shit!" finish, so maybe a Cerrone by dec prop to hedge is something I should look into. I still feel the line is off and that Cerrone shouldn't be so favored, and I'd sink more into Diaz if it wasn't for Cerrone coming in to get his hand raised (the Greg Jackson thing) while Diaz is coming in to scrap.

[xfob]

Cash in on the Reem!

[Kaladarus]

I don't know how unorthodox it is, but I'm guessing Cerrone should have a slight reach advantage. Nate will probably be the one to stalk during the standup if he has to close the distance, especially w/ leg kicks surely coming from Cerrone. I'm not sure how Cowboy could put Diaz away outside of an "oh shit!" finish, so maybe a Cerrone by dec prop to hedge is something I should look into. I still feel the line is off and that Cerrone shouldn't be so favored, and I'd sink more into Diaz if it wasn't for Cerrone coming in to get his hand raised (the Greg Jackson thing) while Diaz is coming in to scrap.

I'm pretty sure Diaz has 3 inch reach advantage actually.

[The HOFF]

or keep this fight up on live betting, in round one if Lesnar is able to take Overeem down in that 1st round make an early play on him

Bookmaker is pretty good about freezing the lines when someone is in a bad spot. Any time there is a submission try or someone gets rocked, they freeze the lines until that fighter is out of trouble. I wonder how aggressive the line change will be if Lesnar gets a TD or if they possibly freeze it for 30 seconds.

[Spaceman Spiff]

and I'd sink more into Diaz if it wasn't for Cerrone coming in to get his hand raised (the Greg Jackson thing) while Diaz is coming in to scrap.

Are you retarded? Or have you just never seen Cerrone fight? The guy is just as much of a scrapper as Nate is.

[Vaughany]

I don't know how unorthodox it is, but I'm guessing Cerrone should have a slight reach advantage. Nate will probably be the one to stalk during the standup if he has to close the distance, especially w/ leg kicks surely coming from Cerrone. I'm not sure how Cowboy could put Diaz away outside of an "oh shit!" finish, so maybe a Cerrone by dec prop to hedge is something I should look into. I still feel the line is off and that Cerrone shouldn't be so favored, and I'd sink more into Diaz if it wasn't for Cerrone coming in to get his hand raised (the Greg Jackson thing) while Diaz is coming in to scrap.

Are you retarded? Or have you just never seen Cerrone fight? The guy is just as much of a scrapper as Nate is.

You're right Mr Spiff, Cerrone is a scrapper, but what eligibletackle is eluding to isnt completely out of the realms of possibility. Afterall, everybody thought Guillard vs Lil Heathen was going to be a FOTN war but instead Guillard hardly engaged for 3 rounds and just bounced around. Now although Guillard is exciting he is noway-near as tough or crazy as Cerrone so I do think it's unlikely that Cerrone goes in there and sticks to a conservative gameplan! Especially when you are fighting a Diaz and getting cussed every 30 seconds!

[gabe]

To quote Donald Cerrone, "If I were a betting man, my money would be on this horse!"

His confidence in a victory is enough for me.

I'm gonna trust him and bet on him, although I love Nate Diaz.


Vaughany, get your ass to your contest thread and update that shit, son!!!!

[Vaughany]

Will be up by tomorrow latest fella

[gabe]

x to the o

[illmatick]

To quote Donald Cerrone, "If I were a betting man, my money would be on this horse!" His confidence in a victory is enough for me. I'm gonna trust him and bet on him, although I love Nate Diaz. Vaughany, get your ass to your contest thread and update that shit, son!!!!

He said the exact same thing moments before getting guillotined by Ben Henderson.


I love Sean Pierson at +325.

Ross is probably the only favorite I like right now. Still waiting to make plays on Volkmann and Castillo.

[Vaughany]

ha yeah betting on a fighter because he says u should bet on him isn't the best idea! BJ Penn also says he is going to win before every fight, as do 90% of other fighters! Mike Guymon was saying he was definitely going to win before his fight with Damarques Johnson, knowing full well that he was injured and was going to retire after!

[Vaughany]

He said the exact same thing moments before getting guillotined by Ben Henderson.


I love Sean Pierson at +325.

Ross is probably the only favorite I like right now. Still waiting to make plays on Volkmann and Castillo.

Yeah I still think Pierson will get better tho, will take him if he hits +350. You still like Pearson at -250 to -300 range?

[gabe]

He said the exact same thing moments before getting guillotined by Ben Henderson.


I love Sean Pierson at +325.

Ross is probably the only favorite I like right now. Still waiting to make plays on Volkmann and Castillo.

He always says he will win the fight, but did he literally say that if he was a betting man his money would be on him when fighting Bendo?

[Vaughany]

[gabe]

I sort of feel confident that Cerrone will win, but don't wanna go big against Nate 'cos I love the guy... and would be pissed if he won.

I also like Cerrone. Wouldn't wanna go big against either guy. Man, I can't wait for this fight. I'm either gonna make a small-medium play on Cerrone or just sit back and enjoy this one... then get pissed for not betting when Cerrone wins.

[proposition joe]

Cerrone hype is getting out of control. I don't like saying that because I really like the dude, but even if he wins this fight, I doubt it will be a convincing enough performance to warrant being as heavy of a favorite as he is. I think that Cerrone will have to be on his absolute A game to even scrape a 29 28, while Diaz has every chance to finish this fight. To each their own, if I hadn't placed a wager on this fight then I would be hoping for a draw.

[BIGDAY]

Cerrone wins

[proposition joe]

Cerrone wins

Well damn, I just lost some money. Was it an exciting fight at least? Did it go to the judges or did he get the finish??

[proposition joe]

PS please make Cerrone your MMA Winner for 12/30. It will make me feel more confident.

[BIGDAY]

Well damn, I just lost some money. Was it an exciting fight at least? Did it go to the judges or did he get the finish??

30-27 Uni dec.

[BIGDAY]

PS please make Cerrone your MMA Winner for 12/30. It will make me feel more confident.

Just for you pal. I will make a vid with Cowboy Cerrone as my 12/30 MMA winner.

Probably post mid to late this week.

[proposition joe]

Just for you pal. I will make a vid with Cowboy Cerrone as my 12/30 MMA winner.

Probably post mid to late this week.

Sounds good. Feel free to call me out if Diaz gets steamrolled, it might teach me a lesson!

[BIGDAY]

Sounds good. Feel free to call me out if Diaz gets steamrolled, it might teach me a lesson!

Nah, not like me bro. I'll just be glad that one of us cashed!

[TheCalculator]

Here it is folks -- I'm fading myself VERY deep if I'm wrong in any of the following 3 LOCKS:

1. CERRONE
2. GUSTAFSSON
3. Lesnar/Overeem NOT going distance.

[RaiderNation MMA]

vaughany your boy edgar is gonna get smashed by ben hendo!

why isnt everyone putting the farm on anthony n. he is gonna destroy castillo

[proposition joe]

Here it is folks -- I'm fading myself VERY deep if I'm wrong in any of the following 3 LOCKS:

1. CERRONE
2. GUSTAFSSON
3. Lesnar/Overeem NOT going distance.

Cerrone and Gustafson are locks now? What universe is this? No offense buddy, but Cerrone being a LOCK? So you've capped him in the minus 500 range? Over Nate Diaz?

[BIGDAY]

I just feel that Cerrone's style of a relentless wrestler does NOT match up well for Diaz. Diaz usualy will come into his fights with a significant reach advantage. Will not have it here. If standup doesn't go well for Cerrone I have 100% confidence that he can get this fight to the ground with EASE. He will stay busy enough on the ground to warrent and convincingly earn a unanimous decision imo.

This fight is hyped enough and the only way I see Diaz's hand raised is by catching Cerrone in a submission. So I will also hedge my Cerrone wager slightly with Diaz SOTN.

BOL everyone.

[TheCalculator]

Cerrone and Gustafson are locks now? What universe is this? No offense buddy, but Cerrone being a LOCK? So you've capped him in the minus 500 range? Over Nate Diaz?

Yes sir.

[gabe]

You seriously have Cerrone capped at -500 against Nate? Dang...

In any case, you don't have to have someone capped at -500 to feel they are a lock. Seth Baczsynski was +130 (I personally had him capped at around -190) against Matt Brown and it was one of my biggest locks of the year.

[the chef]

What do you think about Hettes?