Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[lasker]

Problem is, those Compustrike stats were no way accurate. Noons threw 600 strikes??? Riggggght lol. Fightmetric put out their stats for the fight and seem much more in line with what I witnessed. They had Noons throwing 426 and landing 139. Diaz throwing 441 and landing 150. Diaz winning in significant strikes, head and leg, Noons winning only the body. They scored it 49-46 for Diaz as did I.

Fightmetric is proving to be more accurate than Compustrike by far.

[Vaughany]

Yeah I only briefly saw the percentages that computstrike put out, didnt notice that they said Noons threw over 600 strikes! Fightmetric is definitely more reliable.

[Shagdogy]

http://www.cagepotato.com/even-more-diaz-vs-noons-ii-aftermath-notes-scoring-corrections-diaz-mayhem-incident

Check out this article from Cagepotato regarding the compuscore stats put up for the Noons/Diaz fight. Turns out they say there was a "computer glitch" that resulted in incorrect stats. Instead of Noons landing 310 out of 611 strikes, it should have said he landed 155 out of 611. Instead of landing 51% of strikes, it was actually more like 25%. Haha. Sooo... we were all right, and compuscore was wrong. Sweet.

[Vaughany]

UFC 120 Plays (so far):

3 units on Claude Patrick at +137.5 to win 4.125 units (plus stake);

1.7 units on Vinicius 'Kappke' Quieroz at -120 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Travis Browne at +200 to win 2 units (plus stake);

Straddle: 1.6 units on Hardy by decision at +350 to win 5.6 units; and 1.6 units on Condit to win by decision at +650 to win 10.4 units.

[brooks85]

paddy has patrick at +money, thats gotta be nice

[Vaughany]

paddy has patrick at +money, thats gotta be nice

ha yeah pretty happy with that but its actually through Skybet as paddy have only got the Bisping, Hardy and Hathaway fights up at the moment. Ross Pearson had a 'twitter' status saying check out my picks on skybet so I thought Id have look and to my surprise the prop bets for Hardy/Condit wer available (and at great value I think with Condit by dec at +650) and Patrick at +137.5 so I had to sign up and jump on them! Now have betting accounts with Bet365, Paddypower, Pinnacle (which is were I got Vinicius Kappke bet from) and SkyBet...hope my bank dont pull my pants down for it!

[brooks85]

wow +650, 5d has it +290


of course, skybet doesnt allow US players

[The HOFF]

You lucky SOB. Patrick at +137.5. That line is ridiculous. I had to take -190!

[Vaughany]

More UFC 120 Plays:

3 units on Hathaway by decision at +130 to win 3.9 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Bisping by decision at +137.5 to win 3.438 units (plus stake);

Double prop ("Ross Pearson's Double" offer on Skybet): 0.3 units on Bisping by decision and Kongo by decision at +1400 to win 4.2 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

wow +650, 5d has it +290


of course, skybet doesnt allow US players

ha ye ridiculous odds...Paddy have just released prop bets and have Condit at +275 by decision and Hardy by decision at +137.5 which I probly would of still bet on, so very glad to have discovered skybet (with at least 2x better value) last night before I made any bets on paddypower!

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 120 Plays:

I like Diabate vs Gustaffson to be FOTN (unless there is an early knockout). However, have hedged the bet with Hardy/Condit FOTN as you can't rule that one out, it's destined to either be an absolute epic or an absolute let down (similar to Guillard vs Stephens recently). Also put a very small play on Cantwell/Nedkov FOTN as the +1400 value is worth it IMO...

0.3 units on Diabate/Gustaffson being FOTN at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Hardy/Condit being FOTN at +350 to win 0.35 units (plus stake); and

0.046 units on Cantwell/Nedkov being FOTN at +1400 to win 0.644 units (plus stake).

[lasker]

I can't see Hardy/Condit being a letdown (unless it ends early). Of course, I couldn't see it with Guillard-Stephens either... but both these guys always come to throw down and there should be fireworks. Having said that, I like your Diabate/Gustafsson FOTN play too.

[Eccocide]

Hey, was wondering why you like Queiroz? Have you been able to find any video on him? All I have found is him sparring in water lol.

The guys he has beaten are:
1-1
0-6
5-4
0-4
0-3

Thats a combined 6-18 lol. The only guy he fought with a decent record is the guy he lost to. I understand he's a big ripped guy, he trains out of chute box and is a brown belt in BJJ, but It seems like this is a lot of hype for a guy with little experience and no competition. Broughton is no world beater but he has lots of experience and is fighting with the hometown crowd behind him. I think this is probably be a pretty sloppy fight, but a guy with the muscle mass of Quieroz who has never fought a 3 round fight is prolly going to blow his load pretty fast. I actually think Broughton is the play at the +money and will prolly make a play on it. Just wanted to see why you like Quieroz.

[illmatick]

there's a few of his fights on youtube



I think if anyone is going to blow there load it will be Broughton, I could see Quieroz's mobility causing some issues for him.


I didn't notice anything overly impressive from Quieroz though...

[Eccocide]

Thanks, I didn't realize I had to type in his first name followed by his nickname to get results haha. Yeah he seems to move well and is pretty composed. He also looked to have about 15lbs more of muscle in the video clip I saw which was why I was thinking he'd gas. He doesn't look at that bulky in that fight. I'm gunna look some more, prolly be a no play.

[Vaughany]

Hey, was wondering why you like Queiroz? Have you been able to find any video on him? All I have found is him sparring in water lol.

The guys he has beaten are:
1-1
0-6
5-4
0-4
0-3

Thats a combined 6-18 lol. The only guy he fought with a decent record is the guy he lost to. I understand he's a big ripped guy, he trains out of chute box and is a brown belt in BJJ, but It seems like this is a lot of hype for a guy with little experience and no competition. Broughton is no world beater but he has lots of experience and is fighting with the hometown crowd behind him. I think this is probably be a pretty sloppy fight, but a guy with the muscle mass of Quieroz who has never fought a 3 round fight is prolly going to blow his load pretty fast. I actually think Broughton is the play at the +money and will prolly make a play on it. Just wanted to see why you like Quieroz.

Thanks, I didn't realize I had to type in his first name followed by his nickname to get results haha. Yeah he seems to move well and is pretty composed. He also looked to have about 15lbs more of muscle in the video clip I saw which was why I was thinking he'd gas. He doesn't look at that bulky in that fight. I'm gunna look some more, prolly be a no play.

Yep your right Kappke's record isnt impressive when you actually look at who he has beaten! My main reason for betting on him tho was due to the fact that he came out at -120 on pinnacle and I predicted there would be significant line movement with him reaching -160 to -175 range which has happended with him reaching -167 and Broughton at +151. I have the option of arbing the bet now for a guaranteed, but very small profit, which I may well end up doing as there are a lot of uncertainties going in to this fight, but will wait until after the weigh-ins to see what the weight difference is and see if Broughton goes up slightly to +155 or even +160 by fight night. I also think Vinicius has put on some size and muscle and his cardio is untested. Also, it will be his first time fighting abroad and as you say Broughton will be comfortable with the home advantage. On the other hand, I dont rate Broughton at all (dont think he is a UFC level fighter). His last couple wins were against guys like James Thompson (who has lost 9 out of his last 10 fights) and a decision win against Oli Thompson most recently (Oli Thompson was a former "Britain's strongest man" who only had 4 pro fights before the Broughton loss including getting TKO'd by Joe Vedepo who is a natural 185lb fighter taking part in a heavyweight tournament!). Although Broughton could smother his way to a decision win with his weight advantage, even if it goes to the ground Kappke should have the advantage with BJJ and may be able to submit The Bear off his back, but still without any footage its hard to tell how dangerous he is off his back. I also think he will have better technical muay thai stand-up than Broughton, however Broughton may have power, size and experience advantage.

[Vaughany]

UFC 120 Plays (so far):

3 units on Claude Patrick at +137.5 to win 4.125 units (plus stake).

Have decided to pussy out and 'arb' my Patrick bet!:

2 units on Wilks at +151 to win 3.020 units (plus stake).

Worse case scenario for me now with regard to this fight would be that I make 0.02 units if Wilks wins and best case would be a profit of 2.125 units if Patrick wins. I still really like Patrick to win this fight and probably wouldn't of arbed out like this if I wasn't actually going to the event itself, but as I am going to be there live I'd like to have a few fights where I can just sit back and enjoy the show without worrying about losing a reasonably large portion of my overall stake for the event. Will be cheering for Patrick though as there are still 2.125 units to be gained and although it will only be half (if Patrick does win) of what I would of won if I hadn't of arbed, at least there is no risk involved.

May also arb out on the Vinicius Kappke bet as well. At the moment Broughton is at +161 on pinnacle and it has been slowly getting better throughout the day. If I arbed now I'd only have a guarantee of getting 0.4 units if Vinicius did win (and overall stake for both fighters back if Broughton wins). Think I'm going to wait till Saturday with the hope that majority of bets continue to be placed on Kappke, and especially that people will see the physique difference at the weigh-ins (Vinicius built like a gladiator whilst Broughton is built like a pub-fighter!) and jump on the Brazilian.

[jin2daj]

the 600 strikes is ridiculous

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 120 Plays:

Parlay (4 folds out of 5): 0.25 units on Maldonado, Holst, Fisher, Gustafsson, Hathaway by TKO/KO to win 4 units (plus stake);

0.122 units on Akiyama 'KO of the Night' at +800 to win 0.976 units (plus stake);

0.18 units on Pyle 'Submission of the Night' at +1400 to win 2.52 units (plus stake).

Pyle sub of the night is a back up in case he manages to lock Hathaway up in a triangle or something. Hathaway is still young and raw and will be the first time he's gone up against someone with a similar size and reach. None of Hathaway's previous opponents have offered a particular threat from their guard, this will be completely different as Pyle is dangerous off his back. Could of just got Pyle by submission at +700, but I feel if Pyle does manage to sub Hathaway it will be quite a shock to many and as it is on the main card it would no doubt be submission of the night worthy, plus I don't foresee many submissions on this card so shouldn't be much competition. With this in mind, I think it makes more sense to bet on him getting submission of the night at +1400 rather than just to win by sub at +700.

[lasker]

Good luck and have fun!

[Vaughany]

Good luck and have fun!

Cheers bro, should be a good laugh! BOL to u as well...I wont be online for a couple of days now so BOL to everybody else!

[phillybadboy]

good luck vaughany this weekend

[Vaughany]

UFC 120 Plays Summary:

3 units on Claude Patrick at +137.5 to win 4.125 units (plus stake);

1.7 units on Vinicius 'Kappke' Quieroz at -120 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Travis Browne at +200 to win 2 units (plus stake);

Straddle: 1.6 units on Hardy by decision at +350 to win 5.6 units; and 1.6 units on Condit to win by decision at +650 to win 10.4 units;

3 units on Hathaway by decision at +130 to win 3.9 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Bisping by decision at +137.5 to win 3.438 units (plus stake);

Double prop ("Ross Pearson's Double" offer on Skybet): 0.3 units on Bisping by decision and Kongo by decision at +1400 to win 4.2 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on Diabate/Gustaffson being FOTN at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Hardy/Condit being FOTN at +350 to win 0.35 units (plus stake); and

0.046 units on Cantwell/Nedkov being FOTN at +1400 to win 0.644 units (plus stake);

2 units on Wilks at +151 to win 3.020 units (plus stake);


Parlay (4 folds out of 5): 0.25 units on Maldonado, Holst, Fisher, Gustafsson, Hathaway by TKO/KO to win 4 units (plus stake);

0.122 units on Akiyama 'KO of the Night' at +800 to win 0.976 units (plus stake);

0.18 units on Pyle 'Submission of the Night' at +1400 to win 2.52 units (plus stake).

Total stake: 13.698 units (not including 1 unit on Browne which was a free bonus bet)
Total return: 13.109 units
= Loss of: 0.589 units

Not the best of nights betting wise, although not a major loss and done okay considering how many surprise outcomes occurred (Pyle by decision, Condit TKO, Kongo/Browne draw, Holst committing suicide by staying in Sass' guard!). Awesome night nonetheless seeing the fights live at O2. Was worth the high expense of a wknd in London just to see that Condit knockout! Couldnt believe it, never thought he'd knock Hardy out like tht, but was actually quite pleased as I'm a big Condit fan and even though I'm 'English' I'm starting to become less of a fan of Hardy and the Roughhouse in general due their cockiness and excuse making. Hardy looks like an absolute douchebag now after all that chat before the fight, sayin he was gonna knock Condit out and stamp his passport and send him back home! Can't believe Hathaway got dominated as well, he didnt offer anything, Pyle was better everywhere, was praying for Hathaway to tap out at the end of the second round just so tht I'd get my stake back through the Pyle by sub bet! At least Hathaway doesnt do any smack talk so its not as bad for him. Luckily, Bisping by dec, and Patrick came through -clearly shouldnt of arbed out on my Patrick bet as Wilks offered nothing from his back and should of arbed on the Kappke bet. Dude was dominating first round and start of second round thn just gassed and gave in! Ecco was right about the muscle mass being too much and effecting his cardio I reckon. My good run was bound to end at some point, hopefully can make a few units back this weekend on 121. At the moment planning on doing an Askren and Lesnar double, 2 to 3 units on Shields by decision, a unit on Schaub (waiting for the Pinnacle line to come out), possibly Stout, Hamill/Ortiz to decision, and Madsen.

[jacktheknife]

At the moment planning on doing an Askren and Lesnar double

Other then hiccups from Brock and Joe Warren, I never cease to be stunned by how these Olympic level wrestlers just come into the game and step on everyone.

But you think the Shaub fight is a mark, huh? I've been staring at it, but I'm not sure how the kid holds up in a jitsu match.

[Vaughany]

Other then hiccups from Brock and Joe Warren, I never cease to be stunned by how these Olympic level wrestlers just come into the game and step on everyone.

But you think the Shaub fight is a mark, huh? I've been staring at it, but I'm not sure how the kid holds up in a jitsu match.

Yes thers no doubt that Gonzaga will have a big advantage on the ground, however, I'm not sure how Gonzaga will get this to the ground and even if he did Schaub is quite adept at getting back to his feet. Gonzaga isnt an explosive wrestler so isnt going to take Schaub down from a shot, he maybe able to get him down from the clinch against the cage or something but Schaub will have reach and height advantage. Of course Gonzaga could clip him in the stand-up and thn finish it on the ground thn. I just think with his reach and reasonable boxing ability, combined with Gonzaga's decreasing mobility and speed, Schaub should have the advantage in the stand-up. I may just go for the prop bet Schaub by TKO/KO as I dont think its going to go to decision and he surely wont submit Gonzaga.

[Shagdogy]

Vaughany, I'm with you on the Schaub by TKO/KO bet. He will NOT sub Gonzaga for sure, and it's hard to imagine a decision. In a combined 23 professional fights for these two there has not been one decision. If you think Schaub's gonna take it, then go with TKO/KO for better value. Gonzaga's a little harder to predict because he could win by TKO/KO or Sub, but I'd have to lean towards TKO/KO with him as well. For my money, Schaub's ability to stay on the feet is too good, especially when you consider Gonzaga's very average takedowns. Combine that with Gonzaga's vulnerable chin and you've got to like Schaub to finish him with strikes.

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, I'm with you on the Schaub by TKO/KO bet. He will NOT sub Gonzaga for sure, and it's hard to imagine a decision. In a combined 23 professional fights for these two there has not been one decision. If you think Schaub's gonna take it, then go with TKO/KO for better value. Gonzaga's a little harder to predict because he could win by TKO/KO or Sub, but I'd have to lean towards TKO/KO with him as well. For my money, Schaub's ability to stay on the feet is too good, especially when you consider Gonzaga's very average takedowns. Combine that with Gonzaga's vulnerable chin and you've got to like Schaub to finish him with strikes.

I might even jus go for Schaub KO of the NIght at better odds as I dont foresee many TKO/KO's in this event.

[Vaughany]

UFC 121 Plays:

2.5 units on Sanchez/P.Thiago to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on Camozzi at +120 to win 2.4 units (plus stake).

See Ecco's thread for my reasoning behind picking Camozzi in this one!

[ddream1]

hard to argue those picks sir, bol

[Vaughany]

hard to argue those picks sir, bol

Cheers bro!

Additional 121 Play:

2.5 units on Hamill/Ortiz to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake).

Glad I got this play at evens as it has fallen to -110 already on Paddypower and the Sanchez/Thiago to decision prop has fallen to -120.

[lasker]

-110 is still a steal compared to 5dimes. Hamill/Ortiz to decision is -195 on 5dimes. Damn I wish I could set up an account with the European books.

[Vaughany]

-110 is still a steal compared to 5dimes. Hamill/Ortiz to decision is -195 on 5dimes. Damn I wish I could set up an account with the European books.

Ha makes me feel even better about my prop bets, cheers!

Added:

0.3 units on Schaub "KO of the Night" at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

More UFC 121 Plays:

Straddle: 2 units on Shields by decision at +175; 0.365 units on Kampmann by decision at +550; & 0.365 units on Shields "Submission of the Night" at +650. Will makes just over 2 units if Shields wins by decision, and will get overall stake (2.73 units) back if Kampmann wins by decision or Shields get sub of the night;

1.635 units on Cote/Lawlor to decision at -110 to win 1.486 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Stout/Taylor "Fight of the Night" at +600 to win 6 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 121 Plays:

Straddle: 2 units on Shields by decision at +175; 0.365 units on Kampmann by decision at +550; & 0.365 units on Shields "Submission of the Night" at +650. Will makes just over 2 units if Shields wins by decision, and will get overall stake (2.73 units) back if Kampmann wins by decision or Shields get sub of the night;

2.5 units on Hamill/Ortiz to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Sanchez/P.Thiago to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on Camozzi at +120 to win 2.4 units (plus stake).

1.635 units on Cote/Lawlor to decision at -110 to win 1.486 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Stout/Taylor "Fight of the Night" at +600 to win 6 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Lesnar/Velasquez Over 2.5 Rounds at +151 to win 1.51 units (plus stake);

0.284 units on Cote/Lawlor "Fight of the Night" at +700 to win 1.99 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on Schaub "KO of the Night" at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Cote "KO of the Night" at +1600 to win 1.6 units (plus stake).


That should be my lot for the night, decided to resist betting on Lesnar or Velasquez to win, I think Brock should win it but I'm expecting it to go to at least 3rd round just because of how tough and resilient they both are. Just put a couple hundred of SBR points on Brown Pride for banter! BOL to all

[snake11eyes]

Vaughany, you didn't get anything on Voelker at +425.