Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Bader by decision is now +200, how can I resist?

Nice, I was originally resisting Bader by decision in the hope it would go to +200. Its actually gone down on paddypower to +162 now. Cant rule out Bader TKO/KOing Nog tho.

[Vaughany]

Final Summary of UFC119 Plays:

Prop: 2 units on Lytle/Serra to decision at Evens to win 2 units (plus stake);

Straddle: 2.1 units on Stephens at +125, & 1 unit on Guillard by decision at +200;

1 unit on Mir by submission at +110 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);

1 unit on TJ Grant at -175 to win 0.57 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.25 units on TJ Grant, Mitrione and Guillard to win 0.78 units (plus stake);

0.25 units on Guillard/Stephens being Fight of the Night at +350 to win 0.875 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Doerkson getting Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Dunham by decision at +137.5 to win 0.688 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Bader by decision at +175 to win 0.875 units (plus stake);

Straddle: 1 unit on CB Dolloway by decision at +175, & 0.225 units on Doerkson by sub at +450;

Parlay (2 from 3 folds): 0.3 units on Kong Watson, Miyata, & Grove to win 1.27 units (plus stake);

Parlay (2 from 3 folds): 0.3 units on Aurelio, Mayhem Miller, & McCorkle to win 1.68 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Lytle/Serra being Fight of the Night at +400 to win 0.4 units (plus stake);

0.075 units on Doerkson by TKO/KO at +1600 to win 1.2 units (plus stake);

Also have two parlays that I did before the Shark fights - have Mir in one; and Mir, Bader and Doerkson in the other.

GL ALL!

__________________

[illmatick]

Gl Vaughany.


would love to see Doerkson pull off that sub of the night award.

[Eccocide]

Lots of bets for you tonight..GL! You got some great value in a lot of your plays, I'm envious of some of those lines lol

[Vaughany]

Lots of bets for you tonight..GL! You got some great value in a lot of your plays, I'm envious of some of those lines lol

Yep quite a lot, perhaps got a bit carried away with paddypower releasing new lines that they havnt done before such as props for the Spike Pre-lims fights and Fight of the Night, Sub of the Night etc...!

[koscheckbaby]

I think Fight of the Night will be Beltran-Mitrione, but Serra-Lytle is a good play. My logic is Serra or Lytle may take a safe way out of danger. Meat and Beltran should mostly just be them slugging it out sloppily, which the crowd eats up. Plus, both are known for chins

[Vaughany]

I think Fight of the Night will be Beltran-Mitrione, but Serra-Lytle is a good play. My logic is Serra or Lytle may take a safe way out of danger. Meat and Beltran should mostly just be them slugging it out sloppily, which the crowd eats up. Plus, both are known for chins

Yee could be another Hamann/Kingsbury situation where they got fight of the night, however, I think they might gas by mid-way of secound round and will not be too exciting. The UFC (Dana White, Joe Silva and Fertittas) love to give bonuses to Lytle and Serra as they are "company men" so I think they will have the edge as long as their fight is reasonably exciting. Both keep sayin in their interviews before this fight that they are going to be the exact opposite of the first fight (TUF Finale) and go all out for the win. As long as their fight or Lil Heathen/Guillard is FOTN I'll be satisfied!

[Eccocide]

Crowd is going to be amped for Lytle/Serra as well since Lytle is a hometown guy. Anytime you get a standup battle where the crowd is going ape-shit, it has a good chance to win FOTN.

[Chris_B]

Final Summary of UFC119 Plays:

Straddle: 2.1 units on Stephens at +125, & 1 unit on Guillard by decision at +200;

This is a really strange... If Stephens wins you win 1.625 units, if Guillard wins by decision -0.1 units and if neither happens -3.1 units. Why didn't you just put 3.1 units on Not Guillard inside the distance @ -185 over on 5dimes? If Stephens wins you get 1.68 units, if Guillard wins by decision you get 1.68 units and if anything else happens you lose -3.1 units.

It's the same bet but you just get paid more for the same risk...

[Vaughany]

This is a really strange... If Stephens wins you win 2.625 units, if Guillard wins by decision -1.1 units and if neither happens -3.1 units. Why didn't you just put 3.1 units on Not Guillard inside the distance @ -185 over on 5dimes? If Stephens wins you get 1.68 units, if Guillard wins by decision you get 1.68 units and if anything else happens you lose -3.1 units.

It's the same bet but you just get paid more for the same risk...

Im in UK so don't have a 5dimes account and paddypower don't offer 'not inside the distance' type bets. If Stephens wins I'll end up with 3.725 units back (including the Stephens stake and 1 unit loss from Guillard by dec), meaning that I'll be up 0.625 units from the total stake of 3.1 units for the stradde. If Guillard wins by decision I'll lose 0.1 units. I have Guillard in a parlay with Grant and Mitrione as back-up as well in case Guillard does TKO/KO Stephens, but I just don't see that happening (hopefully!). So if Guillard does win it will be a decision IMO meaning that worst case scenario would be me losing a measly 0.1 units and that's only if Grant and Mitrione dont both win. Also have Guillard/Stephens for FOTN as well which could save me if Guillard did pull off a TKO/KO or sub.

[Vaughany]

Added another unit on TJ Grant at -175 so now have:

2 units on TJ Grant at -175 to win 1.143 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Watson beats Reid by unaminous decision to keep my 2 out of 3 folds parlay going with Miyata (already won) and Grove...some terrible grappling on show but entertaining nonetheless.

[Fiasco01]

Some interesting late line movement, Mir down to -225 from -270, Sherk down to +165, Melvin down to -110.

[Vaughany]

McCorkle wins by sub so will at least get my stake back from the following parlay:

(2 from 3 folds): 0.3 units on Aurelio, Mayhem Miller, & McCorkle to win 1.68 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Glad I put a last minute extra unit on TJ Grant, hope I dont regret choosing to put more units on main card fights instead of just going big on Grant.

2 units on TJ Grant at -175 to win 1.143 units (plus stake)

[Vaughany]

Bullshit decision IMO, hell knows how Guillard got a 30-27 off one of the judges, he got knocked down in first few seconds of the fight and lost the third round for sure! Anyway, at least it means my straddle pulls through (lose 0.1 units) but make 0.78 units from the Grant, Mitrione and Guillard back-up parlay. Need a Dunham decision win now but not feeling too confident with this one.

[Vaughany]

Absolute disgrace...I thought the Stephens fight was a robbery but this just takes the piss. Dunham dominated Sherk in rounds 2 and 3. Im in shock.

[Vaughany]

YEEESSS, MAN I LOVE BADER (NO HOMO)! Always a good guy to bet on, just need a Mir sub to get me in positive units for sure.

[Poppa Catfish]

YEEESSS, MAN I LOVE BADER (NO HOMO)! Always a good guy to bet on, just need a Mir sub to get me in positive units for sure.

Almost like stealing

[Vaughany]

Damn, I love Mir's entrances...too cool, song is perfect for him! WAR MIRRRRRRRRRR

[Vaughany]

UFC 119 Results:

Total stake (excluding any outstanding parlays): 11.4 units;

Total return (excluding any outstanding parlays): 12.9 units;

Profit: +1.5 units (+13.1 units over last 3 UFC events).

Not as bad an outcome as I thought it was going to be after seeing Stephens get robbed and then the most scandalous Sherk decision win I've even seen in MMA! The only effective think Sherk did all fight was land one elbow that cut Dunham. All of Sherk's takedowns either resulted in Dunham immediately locking on a sub attempt (guillotines) which were very tight at least twice, and if it was not a sub attempt Dunham would just get up straight away from the takedown. In the second and third round Dunham cracked Sherk numerous times, especially with knees. Should of been a split-decision Dunham win at very least IMO. Would of made another 1.5 to 2 units if Dunham had of taken the decision and Stephens got the win but nevermind. Still have some parlays alive as well, including a two out of three-folds involving Miyata, Kong Watson (who both won) and Neil Grove. If Grove manages to pull off a win against Konrad that will make me another unit or so and if he doesnt I should get majority of my 0.3 units stake back due to Miyata and Watson winning.

[Vaughany]

WEC 51 on Wednesday, looking at single bets on Hominick, Korean Zombie, Varner, Banuelos, and Torres depending on value, may have to do a couple of double or treble parlays if the odds aren't as good as I'm hoping for.

Also UFC 120 in just over 3 weeks away which I'm going to, will be looking at making the following plays:

Big play on Hardy/Condit going to decision if -120 or better (hoping to get it at Evens on Paddypower); and Hardy/Condit to be FOTN.

Medium play on Bisping by decision; or possibly a straddle of Bisping by decision and Akiyama to win depending on odds.

Medium play on Hathaway by decision.

Also will take Claude Patrick at -200 or better... I think he'll be far too explosive and relentless for Wilks and should get the unanimous decision or late TKO or submission. I always fade McSweeney as I think he's very limited and his opponent Blackledge is no joke so will be looking at him if -125 or better.

[Shagdogy]

Positive night for 119. Nice work, stay up. All I know for WEC 51 is that Aldo will win. Can't bet on Gamburyan as I already made my money on him at +400 v. Mike Brown. A buddy of mine works with the manager for Cerrone, and Garcia. He tipped me off to Brown's awful mental state and lack of preparedness for his bout with Manny last time around. I'll have to ask if he's got any insight for this card. Of course he may just say Garcia, and Cerrone to win, haha!

[Vaughany]

Positive night for 119. Nice work, stay up. All I know for WEC 51 is that Aldo will win. Can't bet on Gamburyan as I already made my money on him at +400 v. Mike Brown. A buddy of mine works with the manager for Cerrone, and Garcia. He tipped me off to Brown's awful mental state and lack of preparedness for his bout with Manny last time around. I'll have to ask if he's got any insight for this card. Of course he may just say Garcia, and Cerrone to win, haha!

Cheers bro, relieved to end up winning something after the Sherk robbery! Yee Aldo should definitely win but I'm not going to bet on him at -700! Ha well if u can get any inside information it can only be useful...I'm fading Cerrone and Garcia though!

[stefan084]

that mir/cro-cop fight was the most boring fight i can remember

[Vaughany]

that mir/cro-cop fight was the most boring fight i can remember

U must of not seen the Winner/Lentz fight thn!

[Shagdogy]

I'll give those two fights a draw. Mir/Cro-Cop was awful. Glad Dana didn't give a KO bonus.

[Vaughany]

WEC 51 Plays:

5 units on Hominick at -187 to win 2.67 units (plus stake);

Very rarely make such a big play on one fight but couldn't resist as I'm a massive fan of Hominick's technical style and am over 75% confident that he'll win. Still gutted to have missed the opening line of -120 on Pinnacle as I hadn't set up my account in time Line has gone all way down to -205 now on Pinnacle so have ended up taking him at -187 on Bet365! Will be in complete shock if Hominick loses this one, I personally feel Garcia is overrated and is pushed a lot by WEC as an 'elite fighter' in the same vein as Cerrone is, even though I dont think they'll ever be ''Champion'' worthy. Obviously anything can happen, one of Garcia's wild haymakers could catch Hominick but even then Hominick has a great chin as he proved against Jabouin, is good off his back and has great sweeps. Expecting a decision win for Hominick.

2 units on Varner at -149 to win 1.34 units (plus stake);

As I said above, I think Cerrone is overly-hyped by WEC, he seems to be one of their 2 key 'company guys' who they seem to promote the most (Faber being the other one). He only narrowly beat Ratcliffe and that was after brutally booting Ratcliffe 3 times in the nuts...perhaps he'll do the same against Varner tonight in a similar way to what Shalorus did to Varner! IMO Varner has superior stand-up and wrestling, with the only danger being the potential to get caught up in one of Cerrone's dangerous triangles. I'm expecting a 3 round decision win for Varner 29-28 across the board.

0.5 units on Demetrious Johnson at -105 to win 0.476 units (plus stake);

Hopefully Johnson will use his wrestling base to grind out a decision, was expecting him to be at -120 to -140 range so is worth a small play at -105.

0.5 units on Tie Quan Zhang at -127 to win 0.394 units (plus stake).

Bit risky as he's an unknown quantity and faced easy competition no doubt back in China, however is opponent is coming in at less than a weeks notice and hasn't fought anybody special in his own right.

[Vaughany]

One more WEC 51 play:

0.5 units on Ratcliff at +131 to win 0.655 units (plus stake).

[Shagdogy]

A buddy of mine works with the manager for Cerrone, and Garcia. He tipped me off to Brown's awful mental state and lack of preparedness for his bout with Manny last time around. I'll have to ask if he's got any insight for this card. Of course he may just say Garcia, and Cerrone to win, haha!

Haven't heard anything back here... I'm sure he likes his guys, but occasionally he has some good info based on what he sees in the days leading up. Good luck. Big play on Hominick, but technique is the kind of thing to beat Garcia. If he ducks the haymakers you're good.

[phillybadboy]

i got two parlays with Aldo last leg, the others in parlay won already, if Aldo wins i'm good, gl dude

[Vaughany]

Good start to the night...Mighty Mouse Demetrious Johnson gets the 3 rounds decision as I predicted through superior wrestling!

[Shagdogy]

Good start. Excellent.

[Vaughany]

WEC 51 Undercard Plays Result:

0.5 units on Demetrious Johnson at -105 to win 0.476 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Tie Quan Zhang at -127 to win 0.394 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Ratcliff at +131 to win 0.655 units (plus stake)

+ 0.37 units

[loudpacmanjones]

WEC 51 Undercard Plays Result:

0.5 units on Demetrious Johnson at -105 to win 0.476 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Tie Quan Zhang at -127 to win 0.394 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Ratcliff at +131 to win 0.655 units (plus stake)

+ 0.37 units

Mark "The Machine" Hominick -250

Miguel Angel Torres -600


Jamie "C-4" Varner -145
.

Jose "Junior" Aldo -650


what do you think?

its a parlay btw.