Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 06-02-12, 03:17 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Me, too, I really hope the line on that fight isn't bad...

What do you make of Pyle vs Neer? I'm backing Neer, hope you are too, since we backed him together last time around.

Yeah I dont think Papazian's line will be too good to be honest...tht performance against Easton will have left a big impression.

I lean Neer but not sure if I'll play him yet. Both have solid offensive BJJ but not as solid defence. Both are tough and durable but I do think Neer can take more damage than Pyle. Need to think about it some more

**Rubber Guard** · 06-02-12, 09:04 AM

Looking back at it not sure why Hollaway wasn't played more.

He has the distinct size advantage. And he looked solid in the Poirier fight until it went to the ground. This being his 2nd fight in the UFC he had to be even more comfortable.

**gabe** · 06-02-12, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

Looking back at it not sure why Hollaway wasn't played more.

He has the distinct size advantage. And he looked solid in the Poirier fight until it went to the ground. This being his 2nd fight in the UFC he had to be even more comfortable.

Cousin Gabe doesn't joke about big plays.

Granted, had Holloway lost, I woulda lost so big I'd probably need to skip town. Ha-- especially 'cos I'd end up chasing on Ellenberger.

**fosho14** · 06-02-12, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

Looking back at it not sure why Hollaway wasn't played more.

He has the distinct size advantage. And he looked solid in the Poirier fight until it went to the ground. This being his 2nd fight in the UFC he had to be even more comfortable.

Because it was unknown at the time as to how easy or difficult it would be for schilling to take it to the ground. Fortunately for the Hollaway backers, schilling was unable to and the risk paid off. Very reasonable for anyone who stayed away, considering there was no way of knowing if Holloway would be able to defend the takedown as well as he did. Nice win for the holloway backers.

**gabe** · 06-02-12, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

Because it was unknown at the time as to how easy or difficult it would be for schilling to take it to the ground. Fortunately for the Hollaway backers, schilling was unable to and the risk paid off. Very reasonable for anyone who stayed away, considering there was no way of knowing if Holloway would be able to defend the takedown as well as he did. Nice win for the holloway backers.

What are you talking about? Holloway showed tremendous TDD against Poirier, and Schilling is no Dustin Poirier. It wasn't unknown, and plenty of us (myself, jesus, v, others) were confident he'd be able to defend against Schilling... So, it was unknown to YOU... don't speak for the rest of us. For me, it went exactly as I thought it would, except I thought Max would have gone after the finish. He had several opportunities, but didn't rush in.

**fosho14** · 06-02-12, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by gabe

What are you talking about? Holloway showed tremendous TDD against Poirier, and Schilling is no Dustin Poirier. It wasn't unknown, and plenty of us (myself, jesus, v, others) were confident he'd be able to defend against Schilling... So, it was unknown to YOU... don't speak for the rest of us. For me, it went exactly as I thought it would, except I thought Max would have gone after the finish. He had several opportunities, but didn't rush in.

I had a tiny bit on holloway but it was one of my shakiest picks of the card (so many question marks). It's easy to say that now after the fact. Schilling is a wrestling based fighter, and it wasn't an unreasonable assumption to consider the possibility that he could take holloway down.

**bjpenn85** · 06-02-12, 04:08 PM

Will have to agree with gabe here. Holloway showed very nice tdd against poirier. Only time he got taken down, was when poirier actually lifted him up up in the air and slammed him down. The odds didnt reflect holloways tdd, luckily for us holloway backers.

**fosho14** · 06-02-12, 04:25 PM

I just need to stop betting against kampmann. It's getting absurd. Had I entertained the idea of Kampmann winning it still wouldn't have been envisioned in the fashion he did against Jake. Ellenberger has a solid chin and has never been knocked out in his career and gets blasted by kampmann in the second round by fight ending knees...wow. Time to start respecting this dane!!

**bjpenn85** · 06-02-12, 04:58 PM

Yeah. It seems like a lot of people are willing to bet against top10ers in general. Cerrone against nate diaz, chang sung against poirier and now ellenberger over kampmann. Same story, people buy into the hype, every weekend.

**fosho14** · 06-02-12, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Yeah. It seems like a lot of people are willing to bet against top10ers in general. Cerrone against nate diaz, chang sung against poirier and now ellenberger over kampmann. Same story, people buy into the hype, every weekend.

So true. Never a good idea to bet against elite fighters like diaz, even when you think there gonna lose

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 03:39 PM

Some EURO 2012 plays I've added:

Selection	Poland @ 2/5
Market	Draw No Bet
Event	Euro 2012 Poland v Greece 2012-06-08 17:00:00

SELECTION 2
Selection	1X (Russia or draw) @ 2/7
Market	Double Chance
Event	Euro 2012 Russia v Czech Republic 2012-06-08 19:45:00

BET TYPE
Bet Type	Win Double
Unit Stake	£250.00
Number of Units	x1
Total Stake	£250.00

I will be really surprised if Poland lose to Greece and/or Russia lose to Czech Republic. The squads Greece and Czech Rep. have today are no way near as strong as they have been in the past whilst Poland and Russia may have the strongest sides they've had in a long time, plus Poland have home advantage.

Also bet £50 on Poland qualifying from their group at -125.

Also have this accumulator:

Selection	Under 3.5 goals @ 1/7
Market	Total Goals Over/Under
Event	Euro 2012 Russia v Czech Republic 2012-06-08 19:45:00

SELECTION 2
Selection	Under 3.5 goals @ 1/7
Market	Total Goals Over/Under
Event	Euro 2012 Poland v Greece 2012-06-08 17:00:00

SELECTION 3
Selection	Under 3.5 goals @ 1/6
Market	Total Goals Over/Under
Event	Euro 2012 France v England 2012-06-11 17:00:00

SELECTION 4
Selection	Under 3.5 goals @ 1/7
Market	Total Goals Over/Under
Event	Euro 2012 Ireland v Croatia 2012-06-10 19:45:00

BET TYPE
Bet Type	Win Accumulator (4)
Unit Stake	£100.00
Number of Units	x1
Total Stake	£100.00

**DeFactoCrippler** · 06-04-12, 04:16 PM

Would be really leery of betting Poland. With them being Polish and all.

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by DeFactoCrippler

Would be really leery of betting Poland. With them being Polish and all.

lol

**BIGDAY** · 06-04-12, 04:49 PM

Pollocks baby!

Lol

**PunisherIND** · 06-04-12, 07:22 PM

dimes just released a slew of new prop lines. a few of note:

Rich Franklin/Wandy ITD (5 round fight) -190
Stann/Lombard ITD -190
Machida/Bader goes the distance +125
Aldo/Koch ITD (5 rounder) -230
Bones/Henderson ITD (5 rounder) -350

they also added more props for DHK/Maia; Barao/Faber; Griffin/Ortiz; and distance props for Weidman/Munoz; Werdum/Russow; Bisping/Boetsch; Lauzon/Etim; Bendo/Edgar;

**Vaughany** · 06-05-12, 06:16 AM

Adding:

Parlay: 6.516 units Jorgensen (-200), Not Pyle by TKO/KO (-1245), & Wanderlei/Franklin to Not Go the Distance (-260) to win 8.104 units;

Parlay: 6.516 units on Silva/Brenneman Starts Round 2 (-400), Not Pyle by TKO/KO (-1245), Not Fisher Inside the Distance (-1275), & Bisping/Boetsch to Go the Distance (-185) to win 8.103 units.

**Beelzebubzy** · 06-05-12, 07:06 AM

Is anyone playing Weidman?

I grabbed him at -125. I have never been a fan of Munoz, I think he sets up his shots from too far away. Weidman should be able to out jab him here. His striking has improved. I think as long as Weidman avoids Munoz power in the first round he should be able to take a decision.

**Beelzebubzy** · 06-05-12, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

dimes just released a slew of new prop lines. a few of note:

Rich Franklin/Wandy ITD (5 round fight) -190
Stann/Lombard ITD -190
Machida/Bader goes the distance +125
Aldo/Koch ITD (5 rounder) -230
Bones/Henderson ITD (5 rounder) -350

they also added more props for DHK/Maia; Barao/Faber; Griffin/Ortiz; and distance props for Weidman/Munoz; Werdum/Russow; Bisping/Boetsch; Lauzon/Etim; Bendo/Edgar;

Thanks Punisher
I took the Franklin/Wand ITD at -190.
Etim/Lauzon ITD at -215.

**Vaughany** · 06-05-12, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Is anyone playing Weidman?

I grabbed him at -125. I have never been a fan of Munoz, I think he sets up his shots from too far away. Weidman should be able to out jab him here. His striking has improved. I think as long as Weidman avoids Munoz power in the first round he should be able to take a decision.

I was going to but then it being a 5 rounder has made me re-consider. Both have average stand-up, as u say Weidman uses the jab better but Munoz has the power. If I could be sure tht Weidman's gameplan is to take Munoz down and submit him or control then Id really like him. Leben was able to take Munoz down so I dont see why Weidman cant. And Munoz also leaves his neck out there when going for his own takedowns so Weidman should be looking for the guillotine. I may play Weidman by Sub or SOTN at decent odds

**fosho14** · 06-05-12, 04:18 PM

weidman's striking looked horrible against damian maia, but in his defence he had barely any time to cut a shit ton of weight and it showed in the fight. I expect him to look fresher and his stand up to look better, but how much better?

**Vaughany** · 06-06-12, 11:52 AM

Adding:

29 units on Martinez at -140 to win 20.714 units;

31.4 units on Martinez at -151 to win 20.724 units;

23.86 units on Papazian at -115 to win 20.758 units;

20 units on Papazian at -123 to win 16.2 units;

12.9 units on Salas at +160 to win 20.64 units.

**Grabaka** · 06-06-12, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

29 units on Martinez at -140 to win 20.714 units;

23.86 units on Papazian at -115 to win 20.758 units;

20 units on Papazian at -123 to win 16.2 units;

12.9 units on Salas at +160 to win 20.64 units.

where?

**bjpenn85** · 06-06-12, 12:04 PM

Where dude...i need those lines right now! RIGHT NOW!

**Vaughany** · 06-06-12, 12:05 PM

Sportsbook.com

**poopoo333** · 06-06-12, 12:07 PM

**bjpenn85** · 06-06-12, 12:08 PM

But i am in the UK, the lines doesnt appear? how did you manage?

**Vaughany** · 06-06-12, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

But i am in the UK, the lines doesnt appear? how did you manage?

yeah they appeared about 20minutes later after I badgered the customerservice for a bit and they contacted the traders!

**bjpenn85** · 06-06-12, 12:15 PM

Nahhh fakk, i just moved money from moneybookers to 5dimes. So freakin typical that sportsbook release lines first. Just have to beg for the lines not to be smashed before ending up on 5dimes.

**NunyaBidness** · 06-06-12, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yeah they appeared about 20minutes later after I badgered the customerservice for a bit and they contacted the traders!

Nice work!

**NunyaBidness** · 06-06-12, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

29 units on Martinez at -140 to win 20.714 units;

31.4 units on Martinez at -151 to win 20.724 units;

23.86 units on Papazian at -115 to win 20.758 units;

20 units on Papazian at -123 to win 16.2 units;

12.9 units on Salas at +160 to win 20.64 units.

So, does that imply they are allowing rebets on your side of the pond, too?

**Vaughany** · 06-06-12, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

So, does that imply they are allowing rebets on your side of the pond, too?

yeah buddy. I'll probably be limited to single figures come saturday tho if any of these are successful!

**Vaughany** · 06-06-12, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

29 units on Martinez at -140 to win 20.714 units;

31.4 units on Martinez at -151 to win 20.724 units;

23.86 units on Papazian at -115 to win 20.758 units;

20 units on Papazian at -123 to win 16.2 units;

12.9 units on Salas at +160 to win 20.64 units.

Adding more to Martinez:

32.84 units on Martinez at -159 to win 20.689 units.

I capped Martinez at -200 to -225 range so had to go big on these lines. Martinez is no world beater, but he showed he's a decent striker and tough as hell against Riddle...a fight that he took on short notice with a broken foot and against one of the biggest Welterweights in the division, and arguably won 29-28. With a full training camp at Jackson's, injury free, and at a more suitable weight class (Lightweight) I find it hard to imagine Magalhaes grinding out one of his decisions.

**gabe** · 06-06-12, 12:45 PM

I think we're on all the same guys this card!! Salas, baby!!

**Vaughany** · 06-06-12, 01:23 PM

yeee buddy

**GNI** · 06-06-12, 01:28 PM

good plays dog